10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for April 9th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Sunday, April 9th.
1. Over the last two seasons, Carlos Martinez has faced 770 right-handed batters and allowed eight home runs; among players who have faced 770 righties over that span, that’s five fewer than second-place Kyle Hendricks (13). On Sunday, he’ll face an opponent that has only had three left-handed bats in the lineup against righties this year (Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler), with only one of them being a player to work around (I’ll let you decide which one I’m talking about). On Opening Day, Martinez struck out 10 Cubs while walking none, something that has only been done three times since 2015 (Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber). He seems like a pitcher on the rise, and the sites aren’t pricing him that way yet, as his price tag is more than reasonable at both FanDuel ($9,200) and DraftKings ($10,000). As the heaviest favorite on the slate (-215 and rising at time of writing), Martinez has a high-floor, high-ceiling combo that makes him playable in all formats on Sunday.
2. Lance McCullers has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 21 straight home games dating back to May 18, 2015; that’s the longest active streak in MLB. In fact, only one player in history has 21 games of three or fewer earned runs at home in his first 37 starts: the late Jose Fernandez. We all know how dominant Fernandez was, particularly when he took the mound at Marlins Park, and McCullers has been nearly as dominant at Minute Maid Park. The Royals have the reputation as a high-contact team, and last year their 20.3 K% against lefties was below league average…but not by much (league average was 21.0%). And that’s nullified by the fact that they’re entirely punchless against righties: their .130 ISO ranked dead last in MLB, and their .301 wOBA ranked ahead of only the Padres and Phillies. Like Martinez, McCullers feels like a pitcher whose price will spike as the season moves on. Get him while he’s relatively affordable.
3. For better or worse, Coors Field isn’t on the main slate at FanDuel or DraftKings on Sunday. But for the benefit of those playing slates that do include Coors, here are two quick notes about the pitchers taking the hill in that game:
— Tyler Anderson had quality starts in nine of his 11 starts at Coors Field last year (and he came one out away from making it 10 of 11, as he pitched 5.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs on June 24th). Only five other pitchers have posted 9 quality starts total in a season at Coors Field over an entire season, and Anderson didn’t make his first start there until June 12th.
— Last year, Kenta Maeda visited Coors Field three times, and each time, he last five or more innings and held the Rockies to two or fewer runs; he was the first visiting player to ever post three such games in a single season at Coors.
4. Yasiel Puig has six extra-base hits so far this year, tied for the most in MLB. Last year, he had six or fewer extra-base hits in the months of May, June, and July before eventually being demoted to Triple A at the beginning of August. Perhaps it’s small sample – it is six hits we’re talking about here. Or perhaps he’s made real changes that could lead to his realizing the endless potential he’s teased us with for years. Either way, on Sunday, he has the platoon edge at Coors Field, and he hit cleanup last time he faced a lefty. On top of that, at FanDuel, his price tag isn’t crippling ($3,500).
5. Among players with 250 plate appearances against lefties since 2015, only seven players have wRC+ of 161 or above: Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, and…Chris Young. Young is a DFS player’s dream – wide platoon splits, always cheap, tends to hit high(ish) in the order against opposite-handed pitchers. He’s just $2,400 at FanDuel and $2,700 at DraftKings on Sunday, and with Andrew Benintendi being the latest victim to fall prey to the flu virus that has caused Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and others to miss time, it seems likely Young will crack the lineup. He’ll face Detroit lefty Daniel Norris on Sunday, and he’ll create the buffer you need to slot in the other high-end plays you’ll want on Sunday, like…
6. Kyle Schwarber, who, since entering the big leagues in 2015, has compiled a .390 wOBA and .258 ISO with a hard contact rate of 40.4 percent in 235 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The only other players to post a .390+ wOBA and .250+ ISO on better than a 40 percent hard contact rate over that span? David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Trout. Obviously, we’re still in small sample land with Schwarber (and if you need proof of how quickly these things can change, consider that before Schwarber’s 1-for-6 outing last night, his wOBA was at .400, and his ISO was at .272). But Schwarber has shown remarkable maturity at the plate for such a young hitter; his 5.00 pitches per plate appearance this year is second-best in MLB. And better yet, FanDuel refuses to raise his price tag; he’s still at $3,400, making him a top option for cash games on Sunday in a winnable matchup against Brewers righty Zach Davies.
7. Khris Davis does mash lefties, and he does have the platoon advantage on Rangers southpaw Martin Perez on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that only four of Davis’s 42 homers in 2016 came against pitchers who ranked in the top third of MLB in ground ball percentage. He had a .278 on-base percentage against ground ball pitchers, which is, you know, not good. But just to illustrate: Freddy Galvis ranked dead last out of 146 qualified batters in on-base percentage last year, with a .274 mark that isn’t far off of how Khris Davis performed against ground ballers.
8. Since the beginning of last season, Tyler Flowers has allowed 60 stolen bases; he’s thrown out three base runners during that span. Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte are both capable base stealers, and if they get on base, it would be a surprise if they didn’t attempt to run, assuming Flowers draws the start.
9. In 218 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers dating back to 2015, Edwin Encarnacion has a .390 ISO – that’s best in MLB (min. 50 PAs). Among players with as many plate appearances as him, Baustista is a distant second with a .341 ISO. With “(player-popup)Carlos Santana”:/players/carlos-santana-10261’s rising price (he’s now just $100 cheaper than Encarnacion at FanDuel and $200 cheaper at DraftKings), DFS players now have an interesting choice between Encarnacion and Santana. Either way, both make for fine plays against Patrick Corbin, a ground ball lefty who allowed a 37.9 percent hard contact rate against righties last year, the highest of any pitcher taking the hill on Sunday.
10. Blind résumé! Take a look at the table below, where you’ll see stats since the beginning of 2016 for two of Sunday’s pitchers:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| SIERA | 4.24 | 4.21 |
| K% | 19.4 | 19.3 |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| AVG | .282 | .285 |
| H/9 | 10.16 | 10.14 |
| HR/9 | 0.54 | 1.36 |
In many ways, these pitchers seem close to identical: skills-interactive ERA, strikeout rate, swinging strikes, average allowed, hits per nine…all pretty close. Both pitchers seem to be average (at best) in every way, and even a bit below average in the strikeout department. Then we get to home runs per nine, where player A clearly has an advantage.
Player B is Wade Miley, a pitcher who is rarely on anyone’s radar in DFS. Player A is Gerrit Cole, a pitcher whose name recognition seems to make him more relevant than he perhaps should be. Cole’s one real skill seems to be limiting home runs, which, to be fair, isn’t nothing; we want our pitchers to keep the ball in the park. But we also want them to have the ability to post big strikeout numbers, and Cole isn’t much better than Miley in that department. Against the contact-heavy Braves (19.6 K% against RHP, sixth-best in MLB last year), I’ll be staying away.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year (days to be determined), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about Mondays’s slate of MLB games.