10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 22nd
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, August 22nd.
Note: Stephen Strasburg has been scratched. A.J. Cole will start in his place tonight.
1. Stephen Strasburg’s July ERA was 2.08. His August ERA? 10.19. Taking a closer look, though, it doesn’t appear much has changed for Strasburg. His strikeout rate between the two months has remained roughly the same (28.2% in July, 27.3% in August), his walk rate has remained roughly the same (9.2%, 9.1%), and his xFIP has remained…you guessed it – roughly the same (3.89, 3.98). His BABIP, on the other hand, was a completely unsustainable .152 in July, and it’s swung in the other direction in August, as he’s posted an equally unsustainable .453 BABIP. This is a very long-winded way of saying that Strasburg’s recent performances (one of which was in Coors) shouldn’t dissuade you from using him on Monday if you like the matchup.
2. Unfortunately, the matchup is pretty terrible. The Baltimore Orioles have hit 156 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 2016. That’s 21 more than the second-place Blue Jays (135).
3. The Tampa Bay Rays have allowed double-digit strikeouts on four occasions in 2016. Two of them belong to David Price (June 29th, July 10th). In fact, Price is the all-time leader in games of 10+ strikeouts at Tropicana Field, with 15.
4. Jon Lester has 6+ innings, 2 or fewer earned runs, and 6+ strikeouts in 12 of his 24 starts this season – only Max Scherzer (17), Madison Bumgarner (17), Corey Kluber (14), and Jose Fernandez (14) have more such games. He’s been one of the steadiest pitchers in MLB all year, which makes him cash game viable. And he’s tournament playable, as well, since the current iteration of the Padres has really given up strikeouts to opposing lefties (Robbie Ray and Blake Snell, the last two lefties to face them, have combined for 22 strikeouts).
5. Of the past 20 left-handed starters who have faced the Red Sox, only five (Chris Sale, Matt Moore, Hector Santiago, Tyler Skaggs, James Paxton) have struck out more than five batters. Blake Snell has been proficient in the strikeout department as of late (27.3% K rate over the past 30 days, third-highest on the slate), but this is not the matchup for him.
6. Since entering MLB in 2014, Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a .388 wOBA – that’s bad (third-highest among all pitchers with at least 80+ IP against LHB). He’s also allowed 1.97 HR/9 – that’s worse (second-highest, again with 80 IP minimum). He’s worked to clean up his issues with lefties this year (.355 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, which is actually an improvement), but even so, Jake Lamb, with an insane .358 ISO at home this year (just a few ticks below David Ortiz’s .365 mark) has to be considered one of the top hitting options on the slate in hitter-friendly Chase Field.
7. After going 2-for-4 yesterday against the Blue Jays, Francisco Lindor has 82 multi-hit games through 220 career games in the majors. Only four other shortstops in MLB history (Nomar Garciaparra, Johnny Pesky, Garry Templeton, Harvey Kuenn) had more multi-hit games in their first 220 games. Athletics reliever-turned-starter Andrew Triggs has proven capable of inducing tons of grounders (53.4% for the year), but that should be no problem for Lindor, who has a career .303 average against ground ball pitchers.
8. From 2013-2015, Jose Ramirez totaled eight home runs and 20 steals. In 2016…he has 10 home runs and 20 steals. His 10.8% strikeout rate is the seventh-best mark in MLB, and his elite contact skills make him an underutilized cash game option. Plus, Ramirez makes it easy for DFS players, because he’s the rare switch hitter who is equally effective from both sides of the plate. Take a look:
wRC+ – 123 vs. LHP, 120 vs. RHP
wOBA – .357 vs. LHP, .353 vs. RHP
ISO – .144 vs. LHP, .145 vs. RHP
9. Bryce Harper has a .438 ISO against fly ball pitchers dating back to 2015 (210 plate appearances). That’s heads and shoulders above the rest of MLB, with Carlos Correa coming in a distant second at .386. Just to illustrate: the .054 that separates Harper and Correa is the roughly the same distance between Correa and Freddie Freeman (.331), who is all the way down at 11th on that list. Dylan Bundy’s 43.1% fly ball rate this year would rate 11th in MLB if he had the innings to qualify.
10. Anthony Rizzo is 17-for-141 with only two home runs at PetCo Park in his career (remember, he had a brief stint in San Diego until he was traded – for Andrew Cashner – to the Cubs). As a Cub, he’s had 11 games with two home runs. Despite his troubles in PetCo, the 2016 version of Rizzo is clearly a different version than was a member of the Padres. Against former teammate Edwin Jackson, Rizzo is one of the top first base plays on Monday’s slate.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Shoutout to ericwest11 for getting the trivia question right in Saturday’s article!
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!