10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 12th

Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, April 12th.

1. In his first 121 career starts, spanning from 2012-2017, Patrick Corbin notched eight or more strikeouts on 16 occasions; in his 34 starts since the beginning of 2018, Patrick Corbin has notched eight or more strikeouts on … 16 occasions. Corbin’s well-documented move to throwing his slider at an ungodly rate has resulted in a career renaissance, and these days, Corbin legitimately has claim to being one of the best strikeout artists in the game. (Curiously, his slider usage is down a bit this season, but at 35.6 percent, his usage still ranks in the top 10 in MLB). He fanned nine Mets in his last start, salvaging what could have been a disaster start, as he also gave up three homers to the combination of J.D. Davis and Michael Conforto. Against the punchless Pirates, who have managed just eight home runs thus far (tied for second-fewest in MLB), Corbin should be able to avoid being bitten by the long ball. On a slate without a clear top option, Corbin has the best combination of floor and upside.

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2. Only one pitcher in MLB has posted four consecutive seasons of a sub-3.00 ERA and a 28 percent strikeout rate on the road, and it’s not Max Scherzer, or Chris Sale, or Clayton Kershaw; it’s Carlos Carrasco. There have only been 24 such seasons over that span, and Carrasco has four of them. Carrasco’s home/road splits bear mentioning, as he’s consistently been a far better pitcher when outside of hitter-friendly Progressive Field (4.29 ERA, .338 wOBA allowed at home since 2015; 2.75 ERA, .258 wOBA allowed on the road). On Friday, Carrasco gets a major positive park shift in Kansas City’s Kaufmann Stadium. He’ll look to keep the momentum going after a crazy start in which he only needed five innings to record 12 strikeouts, something that has only happened eight other times in MLB history. Personally, I prefer Corbin, since he’s a bit cheaper across the industry. But if Corbin is the top option, Carrasco is 1a.

3. Since the start of 2018, only four pitchers have posted a 25 percent strikeout rate or better to go with a sub-29 percent hard hit rate: Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Aaron Nola, and … Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod has gotten torched in the early going this season, allowing 11 earned runs and failing to make it out of the fifth inning in either start. But this is still a pitcher with a rare ability to get strikeouts and induce weak contact. The elixir for Rodriguez’s early-season woes may have arrived in the form the Baltimore Orioles, a team whose lineup boasts such luminaries as Joey Rickard, Renato Nunez, Rio Ruiz, and a guy who has so bad he has literally changed the way sites price hitters (Chris Davis cost below the “minimum” at FanDuel at $500 and at Yahoo at $1 earlier this week). With Rodriguez at $9,000, DraftKings has taken the matchup into account; we get no discount despite Rodriguez’s struggles. At FanDuel ($8,300) and Yahoo ($37), though, his salary is a bit more palatable.

4. Wade Miley’s cutter usage by year:

2017 – 14.3%
2018 – 41.2%
2019 – 56.1%

Now, simply throwing a lot of a pitch isn’t necessarily a good thing. But context matters: the Astros have quickly developed a reputation for taking decent pitchers and making them great through ramping up usage of their best pitch. Miley could be next in line, as his cutter is a truly great pitch. Per Pitch Info, his cutter’s 13.1 pVAL is third-best in MLB since 2018, trailing only the offerings of Corey Kluber and Lou Trivino. His matchup against the power bats of the Mariners – who homered for the 15th straight game yesterday, setting an all-time record – is not without risk. Still, at $7,000 at DraftKings, Miley fits the bill as a viable SP2 in the mid-range.

5. Since the start of 2017, only four players have 45 home runs and 45 steals: Mike Trout (of course), Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and … Tommy Pham. Pham’s power/speed combo is rare, and as of late, all he’s done is get on base. He’s now reached safely in 45 straight games. On Friday, he and the rest of the Rays get a major park upgrade, as they’ll be taking swings against Trent Thornton in the Rogers Centre. With 15 strikeouts and only two earned runs allowed across his first 15 2/3 big-league innings, Thornton has been a surprising revelation for the Jays through two starts. At just $4,500 at DraftKings, though, and with his ability to score points both with his bat and on the base paths, Pham makes for an intriguing tournament play.

6. The MLB leader in wRC+ is Mike Trout (of course). The player in second is a bit more shocking. It’s Tim Anderson, owner of a sterling 255 wRC+. Anderson has been as steady as they come at the shortstop position, and on Friday, he’ll have the platoon edge against J.A. Happ. It’s not an ideal matchup, and DraftKings has priced him up based on his hot start to the season. At FanDuel, Anderson is $3,800, the 11th-most-expensive shortstop, which is a much easier pill to swallow. Like Pham, Anderson has the ability to add value with his legs; Anderson has an identical 45 steals since 2017. He’s always more of a tournament play due to his lack of on-base skills (his 2.6 percent walk rate is just funny to look at…). But he does make for an interesting FanDuel-specific GPP play.

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7. Only two hitters in MLB have more home runs than strikeouts this year: Mike Trout (OF COURSE) and … Cody Bellinger. While the home runs are obviously appealing, it’s the strikeout part of the equation that is unexpected. Bellinger has previously had a fairly sizable hole in his swing (which was exposed in the 2017 playoffs, when he struck out 29 times in 64 plate appearances). This year, he’s decreased his strikeout rate from 23.9 percent in 2018 to 10 percent. He’s swinging at pitches outside the zone just 17.3 percent of the time, down from 28.3 percent last year. His contact rate is up more than 10 percentage points, to 83.8 percent from 72.4 percent in 2018. Of course, we’re a few weeks into the season, and all of these numbers are bound to regress somewhat. Even so, Bellinger is one of the better hitters in the game at this moment, and he’s an evergreen GPP play who should see lowish ownership given his hefty price tag ($5,500 at DraftKings).

8. Speaking of improved plate discipline, no hitter in MLB has lowered his strikeout rate from 2018 more than Matt Chapman, who is fanning at just an 8.8 percent clip after going down on strikes 23.7 percent of the time last season. At $4,600 at DraftKings, Chapman’s price tag is creeping upward; he’s now priced ahead of more established sluggers like Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado ($4,500 each). But the Athletics are in an excellent spot for run production, as they’ll face the fly ball tendencies of Drew Smyly. Targeting Athletics bats is going to be a theme on this slate, as you’ll see below, and fitting in Chapman is one of the best ways to get exposure to this high-scoring offense. “One of” because there’s this guy named…

9. Khris Davis. Let’s talk about Khris Davis. He’s homered twice in two straight games. The last time an A’s player did that wasn’t as long ago as you might think: Josh Reddick did it in 2013, but Reddick, and now Davis, are the only two A’s batters to do it this century. Davis’s power is off the charts, and now he has the platoon advantage in a major park upgrade against a pitcher with a career 44.4 percent fly ball rate. Somehow, the hitter perhaps most likely to hit a home run is priced below $5,000 at DraftKings, which makes him one of the best plays on the slate.

10. Since 2018, no batter in MLB has a higher isolated power against four-seam fastballs than Max Muncy (.493). This matters, because Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes has thrown his four-seamer 53.9 percent of the time, and it has gotten crushed. Batters have already homered off Burnes’ heater five times. Personally, Muncy is a player I rarely roster; I was slow to buy into his improved approach last season, and then suddenly he was priced in the upper tier against more established hitters I trusted more. Muncy is affordable at DraftKings on Friday at just $4,400, and given his success against Burnes’ primary pitch, he’s got a great shot of putting one in the seats.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.