10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 28th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 28th.
1. The Atlanta Braves have a well-deserved reputation as a stay-away offense in DFS given their ability to limit strikeouts. Jacob deGrom does not care; against the Braves, he has a four-game streak of 9-strikeout games dating back to 2018. The matchup clearly hasn’t bothered him, and Vegas believes in hims, as the Braves have been installed with a 3.49 implied run total, the lowest on the slate. Although he struggled a bit early in the season, deGrom is as good as he’s ever been; in June, he’s posted a 33.9 percent strikeout rate to go with a 1.5 percent walk rate. He may not shut out the Braves, but on Friday’s slate, he’s at home (where he’s got a career 2.27 ERA and 30.4% strikeouts), and he’s clearly the most dependable arm if you’re spending up at pitcher.
2. Jose Berrios has struck out 9 or more batters on 13 occasions throughout his career; five of those games have been against the White Sox. He’s been hanging on the periphery of true ace-dom for the past couple years, and while his strikeouts can be maddeningly inconsistent – he fanned 10 Red Sox batters two starts ago, then followed it up by striking out just three Royals in his most recent start – he has owned the White Sox throughout his career. This is a prime spot for another high-strikeout outing, as the White Sox fan at a 25.7 percent clip against righties. Even when they do make contact, the Sox haven’t done much damage, with their .305 team wOBA ranking 25th in MLB. Berrios is neck-and-neck with deGrom as the top raw points pitcher on Friday’s slate.
3. In the month of June, Yonny Chirinos has a 25.6 percent hard-hit rate, the fourth-lowest in MLB. On top of that, he’s posted a 2.72 ERA since becoming a full-time starter (again) on May 27th, and he’s struck out a half dozen or more batters in five of those six starts. The Rangers boast some good left-handed bats, but Chirinos has been a little reverse splitsy throughout his career (.279 wOBA against LHBs; .297 vs. RHBs), and with the Rangers power bats comes a high 24.3 percent strikeout rate. Chirinos is particularly cheap at FanDuel, where he’s only $6,300 and stands out as a great point-per-dollar play i you want to load up on Coors Field bats.
4. Against right-handed pitching this year, the Tigers have an MLB-low .282 wOBA against right-handed pitching; for context, that’s the same as the career wOBA of Wilmer Difo. That’s right – when a right-handed pitcher faces the Tigers, he’s essentially facing a team of Wilmer Difos. (I’m obviously being facetious here, but really, Detroit is impossibly bad against righties). Anibal Sanchez meets the Detroit in a revenge game on Friday, and the former Tiger has been rejuvenated late in his career. He’s been quietly effective for most of the season, and in fact, he’s one of just 12 pitchers since April 30th to strike out a batter per inning and have an ERA of 2.82 or below. Here’s the full list, courtesy of FanGraphs:
Even in a best-case-scenario matchup like this one, you know what you’re getting with Sanchez: A high-floor option who should limit the runs but may rack up six strikeouts if everything breaks right. At DraftKings in particular, where Sanchez is priced down at just $7,400, that makes him intriguing as an SP2 option.
5. Since May 28th, Merrill Kelly has a 2.85 ERA and a 20.5% K-BB%. That’s something only five other pitchers (min. 30 IP) can say, and he’s in elite company: The pitchers are Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Cole Hamels, and Charlie Morton. The May 28th date isn’t totally arbitrary: Over his six starts during that span, Kelly has raised his curveball usage, throwing his Uncle Charlie at least 20 percent in each of the six starts over that span. The Giants are barely a major-league team, and Kelly just carved them up for 9 strikeouts in six innings in his most recent start. Ideally, his price tag would be a bit lower across the industry, but given his recent form and his newfound willingness to trust his curve (and thereby accruing a few more Ks), Kelly makes a lot of sense as a low(ish)-owned GPP play in a premium matchup.
6. If you need a long write-up on why it’s a good idea to try to fit in Dodgers in Coors Field on Friday, you may not be very good at DFS. Instead, here are three quick notes:
— Since 2018, Max Muncy has 15 hits at Coors Field; 8 of them have been home runs.
— Here are Joc Pederson’s strikeout rates versus righties for the past four seasons: 27.1%, 20.1%, 20.2%, 17.8%. He’s improved his contact, and the power is better than ever; this year, he’s got an MLB-high 20 home runs against righties, which is just one fewer than the 21 combined home runs against righties by Joey Gallo and Khris Davis (just to pull two notable power hitters).
— Justin Turner is riding a six-game hitting streak at Coors in which he’s slashing .448/.484/.759.
7. Trea Turner has 7 steals over the past two weeks; that’s more than 15 teams in Major League Baseball. Turner is running wild on the base paths, and he’s in the midst of a seven-game hit streak. He’ll be batting leadoff for the Nationals, who have a huge implied run total of 5.63 runs in a winnable matchup against Daniel Norris and the woeful Tigers bullpen.
8. Since 2016, only four batters have posted a 1.000 OPS and 50 percent hard hits when facing lefties at home: J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Trevor Story, and … Eugenio Suarez. Suarez has always loved hitting with the platoon edge at Great American Small Ball Park, and on Friday, he gets both. He’ll take his swings against Cubs left-hander Cole Hamels, and while Hamels has been rejuvenated in 2019, the matchup is baked into his price tag at Yahoo, where Suarez is near the minimum at $8. He’s one of the better point-per-dollar plays at that site, as long as you can stomach fading Justin Turner at $19 (which, I’ll be honest – I’m not sure I can).
9. If you’re looking for some salary relief, Jose Martinez could fit the bill in a plus matchup with Padres lefty Eric Lauer. Martinez has a .410 wOBA and just 15.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties since entering the league in 2016. The only other player who can say that over that span (min. 200 PA) is Nolan Arenado. Martinez should be hitting near the middle of the Cardinals order, and while St. Louis’s offense has been laughable this month (their .281 team wOBA ranks dead last…just below the Orioles and Tigers), I’ll believe in the larger sample size and continue rostering them, particularly when their prices are this low. It also doesn’t hurt that Eric Lauer has given up a career 42.5 percent hard hits to right-handed bats. At Yahoo ($7) and FanDuel ($2,300) in particular, Martinez is a great point-per-dollar play to help you pay up at pitcher or fit in some higher-priced bats elsewhere.
10. Against left-handed pitching this year, Jose Altuve has five home runs…and six strikeouts. Altuve has hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career, and, for some reason, he’s still drastically underpriced at DraftKings in a matchup with Mariners southpaw Tommy Milone. Just for fun, here are a few second basemen priced above Altuve’s $3,900 tag at DK: Kevin Newman ($4,900), Eric Sogard ($4,700) in a lefty/lefty matchup, Greg Garcia ($4,400), Cavan Biggio ($4,200) in a lefty/lefty matchup, David Bote ($4,000). Altuve is clearly a value who will open up some salary at other positions; take advantage while he remains this cheap.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!