10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Opening Day
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Opening Day, March 29th, 2018.
Opening Day
1. Last year, Chris Sale started 32 games; he notched fewer than eight strikeouts in six of those games. The only pitchers in MLB history with more such games in a season are Randy Johnson (1999-2002), Nolan Ryan (1973), and Sandy Koufax (1965). The Rays figure to trot out at least a few lefties on Opening Day (Kevin Kiermaier, Mallex Smith, Brad Miller, maybe Joey Wendle), not to mention Carlos Gomez, who might as well be left-handed given his incompetence with the platoon advantage (32.5% and 32.4% K rate against LHPs in 2016 and 2017). That leaves, who…Adeiny Hechavarria? Wilson Ramos? C.J. Cron? The icing on the cake is that the game takes place in cavernous Tropicana Park. It’s a best-case scenario for Sale, and barring another comebacker taking him out, there’s almost no way for him to fail here.
2. Clayton Kershaw has started seven straight games on Opening Day in his career; he’s posted seven or more strikeouts in all but one of these games. The one exception doesn’t even really count; on Opening Day in 2012, he was pulled after three innings with the flu and managed only three punchouts. Kershaw has also allowed zero or one earned run in six of the seven games, with the one exception being in 2015, and ewhen he allowed three in six innings to the Padres. He struck out nine batters in that game. Kershaw is Good God. If you’re playing a slate that features him, he’s an elite tournament play against what should be an improved but still not scary Giants offense.
3. Since August 7th of last season, Dylan Bundy has posted three games of 10 or more strikeouts. Here are the other pitchers with three games of 10 or more strikeouts during that frame: Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Robbie Ray, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer. It may seem like an arbitrary date, but that’s roughly when Bundy started relying on his slider more often (19.98% usage before, 28.4% after). It’s a pitch that generated a .165/.231/.231 slash line for the season, and one that, per Baseball Prospectus, generated whiffs on 48.7 percent of swings; only Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, and Corey Kluber offerings resulted in more swings-and-misses last year. In other words, it’s a filthy pitch, and if Bundy decides to use it, strikeouts will follow. The Twins represent an average matchup, and it’s a bad ballpark, but even so, at just $6,800 at DraftKings, Bundy is priced more than fairly and has GPP-winning upside.
4. In his last five starts of 2018 after returning from injury, Garrett Richards posted a 2.51 FIP, with 23 strikeouts against just six walks and a single home run despite facing a murderer’s row of matchups – including Houston twice, Oakland, and Texas, all of whom ranked in the top six in MLB in ISO last year. Perhaps most encouragingly, Richards paired an elite 23.0% soft contact rate with a 13.7% swinging strike rate over that span. Of course, the sample is minuscule. But Richards has taunted fantasy players with both his brilliance and his brittleness over the years, and it appears (it appears) as if he’s healthy. Roster him now, when he’s a bargain at just $6,800 at DraftKings. He’s a great use of your SP2 slot against an Athletics team that fanned at a 24.4% clip last year, fourth-highest in the majors (with Matt Olson, Khris Davis, and Matt Chapman all above 26.0% K rate against RHPs).
5. It’s time for a game of blind resume. Below, you’ll see some DFS-relevant numbers for two pitchers from May 27th of last year to the end of the season:
Based on these numbers alone, you’d have to prefer Player B, right? Player B is working with a smaller sample (due to injury), but has roughly similar strikeouts, walks, and FIP while being far superior in terms of wOBA and hard hits allowed. It might surprise you to learn that Player A is Zack Greinke, while Player B is Milwaukee’s de facto ace, Chase Anderson. Anderson was no doubt fortunate last year – nobody can maintain an 87.5% strand rate or a .228 BABIP forever – but even assuming regression, he made significant strides last year. In a plus matchup against the Padres, at $8,100, Anderson is a viable (if lower-upside) alternative to Chris Archer at DraftKings (and at a $400 discount) if you’re worried about Boston doing damage to Archer.
6. Take a look at George Springer’s strikeout rates against left-handers by season:
2014 – 27.1%
2015 – 20.0%
2016 – 23.5%
2017 – 12.2%
Now, take a look at Springer’s ISO by year against lefties by year:
2014 – .194
2015 – .237
2016 – .286
2017 – .248
So essentially, he cut his career strikeout rate in half without giving any ISO back. That’s incredible. Now, we can chalk last season up to a small sample, but given Springer’s age and the fact that strikeout rate stabilizes quickly, I’m inclined to believe that Springer simply got better at putting bat to ball last year. Springer is a legit LEFTY MASHER (as opposed to the Dodgers’ slew of “lefty mashers” to be discussed further down), and he’s facing Cole Hamels, whose hard hits against righties have spiked in recent years (37.9% last year and 32.1% in 2016 after never being above 30.0% in any other season in his career). At the same time, his strikeout rate against righties has taken a nosedive (17.3% last year; 24.0% or above from 2014-2016). Springer’s and Hamels’ career paths are headed in opposite directions, and Springer should capitalize. He’s an elite play in all formats.
7. While Mike Moustakas has a well-deserved reputation of being a slugger who can hit bombs, don’t sleep on his contact skills; last year, he was the only player in MLB to blast 38 homers while maintaining a strikeout rate below 16.0 percent. Even though we typically want to avoid fly ball hitters in Kauffman Stadium (and Moustakas is definitely that, as his 45.7% fly ball rate was 15th-highest among qualifiers), Moustakas has a primo matchup, and he’s simply underpriced at only $3,800 at DraftKings. He faces James Shields, who hasn’t had a wOBA below .370 against lefties since 2014, and whose 20.1% HR/FB rate against them since 2015 is tied for the highest in MLB. Whenever you roster a fly ball hitter against a fly ball pitcher, there’s always the chance you end up with nothing but a few warning track fly balls (especially in a massive park such as Kauffman). However, Moustakas has real shot at a homer here, and at his price tag, that’s tough to pass up.
8. Against fly ball pitchers last year, only JD Martinez (.475) and Giancarlo Stanton (.379) had a higher ISO than Logan Morrison’s .373. Morrison transformed himself as a hitter last year, elevating the ball more frequently against righties and raising his fly ball rate a whole nine percentage points from the previous season (37.3% in 2016; 46.3% in 2017), a move that resulted in a career-high 32 home runs against right-handed pitching (he’d combined for 30 in 2015 and 2016 combined, for context). His opponent on the mound on Opening Day, Dylan Bundy, is (if you hadn’t guessed) an extreme fly ball pitcher whose 47.3% fly ball rate was second-highest among qualifiers in MLB last season. Morrison’s all-or-nothing approach suits him better for GPPs, but in Camden Yards (the second-best HR park for lefties in MLB, per FanGraphs), he’s a sneaky bet for a home run.
9. Only four players in MLB have a 42.2% hard hit rate or better against lefties since 2013: J.D. Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, and … Matt Kemp. It’s true that Kemp’s .204 ISO is well below the others on the list (none of whom have an ISO below .246). Still, even though nearly every other skill of his has declined, he still crushes lefties. On Thursday, he’s up against Ty Blach, who has allowed a hefty .350 wOBA while fanning just 11.3% of righties he’s faced in his career. At $2,100 at FanDuel, Kemp is an excellent source of value if he’s hitting near the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup, as are some of the other Dodgers’ low-priced “lefty mashers” like Logan Forsythe ($2,300), Kike Hernandez ($2,200), and Austin Barnes ($2,200).
10. It’s time for another edition of “Fun With Small Sample Sizes!”, brought to you by Lay’s Biscuits and Gravy Potato Chips, which taste great for the first three chips, only to regress to the mean! This week’s guest: Tyler Austin, owner of a career .361/.432/.722 slash line against left-handed pitching in his career. Austin has crushed lefties to the tune of a .361 ISO, a figure which is ever-so-slightly higher than the career .348 ISO of another famous Yankee, Babe Ruth. His 56.5% hard hit rate against southpaws puts Aaron Judge’s 45.7% mark to shame. Nevermind the fact that we’re dealing with a sample size of 44 plate appearances. Nevermind the 49.3% career strikeout rate at home. This slugger has a bright future (based on the aforementioned 44 plate appearances we’ve seen, ignoring the aforementioned ugly strikeout rate), and he can be yours, for the low, low price of $2,600 DraftKings dollars!
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!