10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, June 27th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, June 27th.
Wednesday, June 27th
1. In his last start, where he fanned eight Padres over eight innings of three-hit, scoreless pitching, Madison Bumgarner earned 26 called strikes; that’s the most he’s earned in a game since July 15th, 2016. While it could have been the result of a pitcher-friendly umpire (full disclosure: I didn’t watch the start), it’s nonetheless impressive, especially considering the way Bumgarner had been roughed up in his first three outings back from the disabled list. If Bumgarner has his command back, as he did in his last start, then he’s easily the top pitcher available on a weak slate for arms, and he’s in a fantastic matchup. Away from home, the Rockies rank in the bottom third of MLB in wRC+ (85), and they’re getting one of the biggest possible park downgrades possible, going from Coors Field to AT&T Park. Bumgarner is arguably the top play on a weak slate for pitching.
2. Bumgarner is “arguably” the top play because Kyle Gibson is in a pristine matchup against the strikeout-happy White Sox (25.1% K rate vs. RHP, fifth-highest in MLB). Gibson has seen a serious spike in strikeout rate this year thanks to a newly effective slider, a pitch that is allowing just a .136 true average, per Baseball Prospectus; that mark ranks third behind only the sliders of Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber. Take a look at how Gibson’s strikeout rate on his slider has spiked this year:
2015 – 37.0 K%
2016 – 35.0 K%
2017 – 39.3 K%
2018 – 49.2 K%
Similarly, take a look at opposing hitters’ contact rate on the pitch this year compared to in years past:
2015 – 61.0%
2016 – 58.3%
2017 – 56.0%
2018 – 44.2%
Gibson has clearly altered the pitch this year, and the results have been excellent. He fanned eight White Sox batters in this matchup back in May, and it’s certainly plausible he reaches that mark again. He’ll be popular, but Gibson may be the top point-per-dollar arm on Wednesday’s slate.
3. With a full run difference between his ERA (4.85) and his FIP (3.85), which is the third-largest gap of any qualified pitchher, Wheeler has been extremely unlucky from a run prevention standpoint this season. Despite the high ERA, he’s done an excellent job inducing weak contact this year. In fact, his 24.1 percent soft contact is tied with teammate Jacob deGrom for second-best in MLB, trailing only Chris Sale. On Wednesday, his upside is minimal against a low-strikeout Pirates team (19.2% K rate vs. RHP is second-lowest in MLB). But it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh has also been ice cold offensively over the past 14 days, with a .263 team wOBA that ranks 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Royals. Wheeler should be able to limit the damage, and his DraftKings salary of $6,300 is simply way too low. He’s firmly in play as an SP2 for cash games.
4. In the month of June, only Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a lower wOBA than Ivan Nova’s .208 mark. Nova also could be unlocking some strikeout abilities, with a pair of eight-strikeout games over his last three starts. For context, he didn’t have ANY games of eight strikeouts in all of 2017. We shouldn’t draw any broad conclusions from a sample size of three games, but on this slate, we’re reaching for reasons to play pitchers, and Nova, facing a Mets team that is in complete shambles (batting .219 as a team, third-lowest in MLB, over the past 30 days), may fit the bill. As with Wheeler, the upside is fairly low, but he does feel safe on a slate that doesn’t offer much upside at pitching.
5. Only six pitchers in MLB (min. 50 IP) have paired a 2.50 ERA with a 29.0 percent strikeout rate. Most of the names on the list – Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Bauer, Severino – are obvious. The sixth player on the list is less predictable. It’s Cardinals rookie Jack Flaherty. He was transcendent in a difficult matchup against the Brewers in his last start, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and fanning 13 Brewers in the process. Nobody will argue that Flaherty is a safe play against Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and company, but it’s slates like this, where there is no obvious place to go for upside at pitcher, that rostering high-upside arms like Flaherty in GPPs makes the most sense. This is a total stay-away for cash games, but even recently, we’ve seen Flaherty’s teammates Carlos Martinez (6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB) and John Gant (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 K) be effective in the same matchup, so it’s not inconceivable that Flaherty comes out and posts another productive game. If he does, you’ll have him at extremely low ownership,
6. Take a look at the rate at which Mookie Betts is barreling up balls since 2015 (a “barrel” being Statcast’s metric for a ball hit with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle):
2015 – 5.7% barrels
2016 – 5.3% barrels
2017 – 4.5 % barrels
2018 – 17.3% barrels
The italics are probably unnecessary, as that last number kind of speaks for itself. Betts has simply transformed himself into one of the top two or three hitters in baseball this season. He’s added launch angle and exit velocity, which, not surprisingly, is resulting in much better contact. Angels lefty Andrew Heaney is a solid major-league pitcher, but Mookie Betts is better, and the Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.14 runs. PlateIQ doesn’t seem concerned with the matchup with Heaney, either, as Betts has the highest PlateIQ rating of the day at 68.59. If you can fit in Betts (or J.D. Martinez, or any other Boston bat from the right side), and it shouldn’t be that difficult given the lack of aces on the slate, it’s certainly worth doing.
7. Over the last 30 days, Kyle Seager has 23 hard-hit outs (hard hits being defined as hits of 95 MPH or greater); that’s the third-most in MLB over that span. Sooner or later, these are going to start dropping for hits. In a matchup against Alex Cobb (.414 wOBA against lefties, worst among qualified pitchers in MLB), the “sooner” part should win out. At just $3,800 at DraftKings, Seager makes for an excellent cash game play with home run upside, as he moves from pitcher-friendly SafeCo Field to Baltimore’s Camden Yards, the second-best home run park in MLB for left-handed hitters (111 park rating, per FanGraphs).
8. Since 2016, James Shields has allowed 1.83 home runs per nine innings; among qualified pitchers, only Ubaldo Jimenez has been worse in that regard (and it’s no coincidence that Ubaldo is no longer pitching in MLB). Yes, Shields seems to have made some improvements this season, but he’s in a terrible matchup against a Twins team that can load up on lefty bats, and the same one that homered three times and put seven earned runs on the board when he last met them on June 7th. The Twins make for a super interesting stack given their combination of bargain bats with home run upside (Logan Morrison, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman) and high-end plays that should be relatively low-owned (Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario).
9. Ketel Marte has absolutely mashed lefties in a small sample this year. He’s one of only two players, along with Buster Posey, with a 45 percent hard hit rate and a strikeout rate below 10 percent in that split. The frequent contact and hard hits has yielded an impressive .366 wOBA and .214 ISO, and he continues to be priced inexpensively despite putting up solid numbers in the heart of Arizona’s order. The matchup is appealing, as well, as Miami lefty Wei-Yin Chen has allowed a .398 wOBA to righties this year while striking them out just 12.7 percent of the time. Marte should put the ball in play a few times against Chen, and though the fact that he’s playing in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park isn’t ideal, his price tag makes him a fine play for cash games.
10. Take a look at the MLB leaders in isolated power since 2016 (min. 195 PA):
Giancarlo Stanton – .404
Nolan Arenado – .355
??? – .341
Trevor Story – .333
Nelson Cruz – .311
The mystery player, boasting more power than notorious lefty mashers Story and Cruz (in an admittedly small sample) is Hunter Renfroe, who is in a prime matchup against Rangers lefty Mike Minor on Wednesday. When facing right-handed hitters this month, Minor has allowed 43.6 percent hard hits, and just as importantly, he’s allowing righties to elevate when they make contact, with a 46.4 percent fly ball rate allowed, a figure which is seventh-highest in MLB among qualified pitchers. Renfroe is still affordable across the industry, and he could be a cheap source of home run power given the favorable hitting environment.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!