10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 13
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 13.
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Week 13
1. Despite his missing three games and there being 27 players with more pass attempts on the season, Jameis Winston has four games of 328 or more passing yards, tied with Tom Brady for most in the NFL. With Doug Martin likely out with a concussion, and in a matchup against a Packers secondary that is loaded with question marks (Damarious Randall is the highest-ranked of Green Bay’s cornerback group…at 81 out of 118 qualified corners), we should expect Tampa Bay to air it out, making 35-40 pass attempts likely for Winston. If he sees that type of volume against a Packers defense that has allowed 331 or more passing yards in three of the past five weeks (not to mention 297 to rookie Mitchell Trubisky), he’s got a great chance at reaching the 300-yard bonus, which significantly raises his floor. At just $5,600, he’s underpriced, making him a play for cash games and tournaments alike.
2. Deep pass attempts (20+ yards downfield) by Derek Carr in Weeks 1-6: 10 (ranked 31st of 32 qualified QBs, ahead of only Mike Glennon)
Deep pass attempts by Derek Carr in Weeks 7-12: 32 (ranked third of 32 qualified QBs, trailing only Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger
Carr, usually a checkdown artist, has changed his game a bit over the past six weeks, and while it’s true that his new reliance on the deep pass hasn’t exactly been fruitful (he’s thrown an NFL-high four picks on deep passes over that stretch), it does make him more interesting as a DFS play. Now, skeptics might point out that the majority (18) of those 32 deep passes went in Michael Crabtree’s and Amari Cooper’s direction. And that’s true; there’s no way to know if Carr will be as willing to chuck it deep to the likes of Seth Roberts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Jared Cook. But in a pace-up game against the Giants (seventh-lowest seconds per play, per Football Outsiders), he makes for an interesting tournament play (and a cheap stacking option with the aforementioned pass catchers) that is garnering very little buzz around the industry.
3. Last week, Alvin Kamara became the first player in NFL history with 188 yards from scrimmage and two scores on 11 or fewer touches. He’s yet to exceed 17 touches in any game this season. And this week, he’s the most expensive running back on the board. This is basically the definition of “point chasing.” Even despite Kamara busting it for a huge, eye-popping play every week, it’s a tough ask at a DraftKings salary of $8,400, particularly given the matchup. Carolina ranks fifth in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run, and 11th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. And the Panthers have been able to shut down the big play: they’ve allowed 30 pass plays of 20+ yards, just one more than the Jaguars, and just five rushing yards, tied for sixth-fewest in the NFL. It’s really not difficult to make a GPP case for Kamara, but, as we saw with Kareem Hunt earlier in the year, this type of ridiculous efficiency just doesn’t hold up over the long run.
4. Todd Gurley has 204 carries and 59 targets in Weeks 1-12; the only other Rams back since 1992 (when Pro Football Reference began tracking targets) to match that volume in the first 12 weeks of any season was Steven Jackson, way back in 2006. With Le’Veon Bell being left off the main slate seemingly every week, Gurley has become the de facto “do-it-all” back worth paying up for. In Week 13, he sees a $600 price drop at DraftKings, and while his matchup with Arizona (ranked fourth in rush defense DVOA) isn’t perfect, I’m far more willing to pay up for Gurley’s guaranteed volume than I am for Kamara.
5. Over the past four weeks, Titans cornerback Adoree Jackson has been targeted 38 times and has allowed 23 receptions, both the most among NFL corners. Now he’s tasked with facing DeAndre Hopkins, who torched the Titans for 107 yards and a score back in Week 4. In fact, Hopkins has been a “Titan killer” over the years, posting 22 or more DraftKings points in four of his past five games against Tennessee dating back to 2014, when he posted a career-high 47.8 DK points on 238 yards and two touchdowns. Obviously, the 2017 Titans bear little resemblance to the 2014 squad, but this year’s team has been downright terrible against opposing WR1s recently, allowing huge games to Antonio Brown (10/144/2 in Week 11) and A.J. Green (5/115/1 in Week 10). Hopkins will be popular, but he’s a near lock for 12+ targets, making him an elite cash game option for Week 13.
6. Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski, Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, Delanie Walker, Julio Jones, A.J. Green. What do each of these players have in common? Since 2016, Seth Roberts has the same number or more red zone targets than each of them. Granted, most of Roberts’ targets inside the 20 came last season (he’s got just three this year after 21 in 2016). But clearly, David Carr has a certain amount of trust in Roberts, and with both Michael Crabtree (suspension) and Amari Cooper (concussion) figuring to be out this week, the Carr/Roberts love affair that tilted so many Cooper/Crabtree owners in 2016 could be rekindled. At just $3,700 at DraftKings, Roberts will be (and should be) one of the highest-owned cheap plays of the week at DraftKings.
7. Atlanta slot corner Brian Pool has allowed the second-most yards (392), the second-most receptions (40), and the third-most targets (50) to enemy slot men. A quick scroll through the game logs will tell you that slot men have had their way against Atlanta: Randall Cobb (6/60), Golden Tate (7/58/1), Jarvis Landry (8/62/1) have all had solid games against the Falcons, and Adam Thielen should be next. Last week, Thielen became one of just 12 players in NFL history to post five or more receptions in the first 12 games a season, joining an elite class of receivers including Antonio Brown (who’s done it in two seasons), DeAndre Hopkins, Keyshawn Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Herman Moore, and Wes Welker, among others. Without any running backs in super elite spots, paying for upper-tier receivers may be a common roster build in Week 13, and Thielen has arguably the highest floor of them all.
8. Out of the 10 highest DraftKings point totals posted by a tight end against the Bills since 2010, Rob Gronkowski owns five of them. Gronkowski, who hails from Buffalo, has scored 213.3 DraftKings points against the Bills in his career; during that same span, no single tight end has posted more than 53 DK points against Buffalo. With a fair amount of value available, a Brady/Gronk stack has massive upside, though it may not be unique, especially with Gronkowski coming off his 16th career two-score game (tied with Antonio Brown for most in the NFL since 2010). I’m inclined to think this is a “get your points and worry about differentiating elsewhere,” though, given the realistic possibility that Gronk laps the field at tight end.
9. Take a look at Hunter Henry’s stat lines in games that he’s played at least 75.0% of the Chargers’ snaps:
2017
Week 5- 3 receptions, 42 yards, 1 TD
Week 6 – 5 receptions 90 yards
Week 7 – 4 receptions, 73 yards
Week 12 – 5 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD
2016
Week 3 – 5 receptions, 72 yards
Week 4 – 4 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD
Week 5 – 3 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD
Week 6 – 6 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
The issue with Henry, of course, has never been talent. And in Week 13, the issue won’t be matchup, either, as he takes on a Browns team that has allowed a league-high 22 touchdowns to tight ends since 2016 (no other team has allowed more than 18). The issue is whether or not he’ll stay on the field long enough to produce, which makes him more of a touchdown play, in ordinary circumstances. Given his touchdown equity relative to price (just $4,700 at DraftKings) in this matchup, though, he’s firmly in play for cash games, as well.
10. Per PlayerProfiler.com, DeShone Kizer leads the NFL with 35 “danger plays,” (defined as “any play in which a quarterback takes an unnecessary risk that could lead to a turnover”). When under pressure, he’s completed just 34 of 99 passes (34.3% completion rate, lowest among qualified QBs) for a 50.2 passer rating, per Pro Football Focus. It’s fair to say that, in a matchup against Joey Bosa (fifth in pass rushing productivity at PFF) and Melvin Ingram (sixth in pass rushing productivity), Kizer will be under pressure quite a bit and will likely add to his “danger plays” total. If (and when) he does, he’ll be throwing to one of the best cornerback groups in the NFL, led by Casey Heyward (PFF”s top-graded cornerback of 2017). This will not end well for Kizer. Load up on the Chargers defense in all formats.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!