10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 5
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 5.
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Week 5
1. Quarterbacks have thrown into Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye’s coverage a combined 43 times in 2017; these throws have yielded 18 completions, 213 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. That’s good for a 28.5 QB rating. Jacksonville is a funnel defense in the strictest sense, ranking first in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in run defense DVOA, and their elite corners should have no trouble limiting the production of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. This means that Le’Veon Bell is in an absolute smash spot, and that more than likely, he’s underpriced even as the most expensive RB on the slate. Last week, we saw what Bell can do when Pittsburgh unleashes him; on 39 touches, he produced 186 total yards and two scores (and by the way – with that game, Bell became the only player in the last 10 years with multiple 39-touch games). While we can’t necessarily expect 39 touches again, somewhere around 25 seems like his floor, and against the worst run defense in the NFL, this is a “don’t overthink it” spot; start your cash games by locking in Bell.
2. Games of 17+ DraftKings points since 2016:
Tom Brady – 12
Matt Ryan – 14
Drew Brees – 14
Dak Prescott – 16
Prescott doesn’t have the most games of 17+ DraftKings points since last year – that honor goes to Aaron Rodgers, with 17 such games – but the fact that he ranks second ahead of upper-tier QBs like Brady, Ryan, and Brees illustrates just how stable Prescott’s floor is. And he’s even more effective at home, where he’s thrown just two interceptions against 15 touchdowns in his first 10 career games. Now, is Dak the highest upside play on the slate? Not even close. He’s a high-efficiency QB who rarely risks throwing the deep ball (just 2.8 deep passes per game, tied for third-lowest among NFL starters, per Player Profiler). But Week 5 is a tough week at quarterback; if you’re not paying up for Rodgers, and if the thought of playing someone like Brian Hoyer or Jacoby Brissett in cash games makes your stomach churn, Prescott is a nice mid-range option that should allow you to still fit in some of the elite high-end plays on the slate.
3. There have been nine games this season where a QB has attempted 48+ passes; three of those games belong to Carson Palmer, and he’s the only player with more than one such game. With David Johnson out, Bruce Arians has shown absolutely no desire to run the ball; he’s apparently content to let Palmer throw until his arm falls off, and this despite the fact that Arizona has a porous offensive line that ranks 31st in pass blocking efficiency, per PFF. The danger of his playing behind a weak line is enough to make Palmer more appealing for tournaments, but it is worth noting that in the past two weeks, Philadelphia has allowed similarly old, similarly immobile QBs (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers) to combine for over 700 yards passing and five touchdowns. And while you can always stack Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald, a more contrarian approach would be to pair him with…
4. Andre Ellington, who last week became the first running back since Shane Vereen in 2013 with 14 targets and 86 receiving yards in a game. Ellington obviously makes for a much better play at PPR sites, and his salary at DraftKings ($4,600) is reasonable. Over the past two weeks, he’s out-snapped Chris Johnson 95 to 66, and if the Cardinals/Eagles game turns into a shootout, Ellington should get plenty of volume through the air (and a shootout is a realistic possibility, because, as Pat Thorman at PFF notes, Arizona averages an NFL-high 71.5 plays per game, which tends to elevate the snap count of their opponents, as well).
5. Carlos Hyde has run 90 pass routes, third-most in the NFL behind only James White (103) and Andre Ellington (94). He’s ahead of guys like Christian McCaffrey (84), and Duke Johnson (87). The obvious difference between Hyde and these backs is that he also sees major volume on the ground, with 65 carries through four games. While they’ve yet to allow any single back to post a huge game, the Colts rank 23rd in run defense DVOA, and Hyde offers locked-in volume at a mid-level price.
6. Only three backs in the NFL have 17 touches in each of the first four games of the season: Todd Gurley (not a surprise), LeSean McCoy (again, no surprise there), and Ameer Abdullah. The Lions’ third-year back is quietly stepping into the bellcow role for the Lions, carrying the ball a career-high 20 times last week. He’s also seen his DraftKings point totals increase each week, from 7.1 in Week 1, to 8.6 in Week 2, to 11.6 in Week 3, to last week’s 19.9 DK points. While the matchup against the Panthers (who ranks 13th in run defense DVOA and held LeSean McCoy to nine yards on 12 carries in Week 2) is far from ideal, the Lions are home favorites, and Abdullah’s $4,700 price tag at DraftKings is a bit off the wall – he’s priced below guys like Alfred Morris and Jamaal Williams, and he’s just a few hundred dollars more than James Conner. Given the matchup, he’s better suited for tournaments, but assuming his workload remains consistent from the past few weeks, Abdullah is one of the better point-per-dollar options on the slate.
7. There are 17 receivers with at least 32 targets through the first four weeks of the season; of those 17, no wideout has a lower catch rate than Dez Bryant 40.0%. But while it’s easy to see that number as an indictment on Bryant, it’s the result of his being shadowed by Patrick Peterson, Janoris Jenkins, and Trumaine Johnson, not to mention having to deal with Denver’s elite secondary in Week 2. In Week 5, Bryant finally has a matchup that should allow him to flourish, as he should be covered by a combination of Damarious Randall (39.1 grade at PFF, ranks 103rd of 111 qualified CBs) and Kevin King (43.6, ranks 91st). Bryant won’t fly under the radar this week, especially given his upside in the mid-tier price range. The matchup is so strong, though, that it may be worth eating the chalk and trying to be overweight on on Bryant in tournaments.
8. Only three players in the NFL have 8+ targets and 69 yards in three straight games: DeAndre Hopkins (no surprise), Michael Thomas (no surprise), and DaVante Parker. Parker is seeing a 25.23% target share, which is ahead of guys like Stefon Diggs, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, and Golden Tate, and in Week 5, the Dolphins are in an excellent spot against a Titans team that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. And not only is he getting volume; he’s making the most of a bad QB situation, catching 8 of 11 contested targets this year (72.7%), which looks even better when you compare it to how guys like DeAndre Hopkins (3-for-11, 27.3%) and Alshon Jeffery (3-for-15, 20.0%) have fared on contested throws. Parker (as well as teammate Jarvis Landry in an excellent slot matchup against the Titans’ Logan Ryan) makes for a reliable cash game target if you’re looking in the mid-range for a receiver.
9. Evan Engram has 30 targets, 19 catches, and 200 yards through his first four games as a pro. He’s the only rookie tight end to post that line in his first four NFL games since 1999, when Pro Football Reference started tracking targets. Only eight players have posted those numbers since 2011, and the list is pretty elite: Will Fuller, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Kelvin Benjamin, A.J. Green, Julio Jones. Engram has quickly become a major part of the Giants’ fast-paced passing attack, and for at least one more week, he’s affordable. Get him before his price rises, as it almost certainly will this year.
10. The Cleveland Browns have allowed 76 receptions, 823 yards, and 11 touchdowns to the last 16 starting tight ends they’ve faced. That line, which essentially covers one full season, has only been matched nine times in NFL history, by seven players (Jordan Reed, Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Christenson). This is a team that has consistently been burned by tight ends over the past few years, and it’s not letting up; they rank 27th in DVOA against the position, and after Tyler Kroft two-score performance in Week 4, the Browns are now responsible for five of the 16 multi-TD games by tight ends since 2016. All this sets up perfectly for Jets tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who, after being a somewhat sharp tournament play last week, should be a bit more popular in Week 5.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!