10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 10
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 10.
1. Halfway through their 2015 season, the San Francisco 49ers have allowed 1,544 rushing yards. Last season, seven NFL teams allowed fewer than 1,544 rushing yards over the entire season. The Niners’ 193.0 opponent rushing yards per game is the most by any team since the 1980 New Orleans Saints allowed 194.1 yards per game on the ground. David Johnson, who leads the NFL with 1,112 yards of total offense, is the must-have player of Week 10. Johnson faced this same 49ers defense in Week 5, and he racked up 165 total yards and two scores; it was the third-highest DraftKings point total (37.8 points) and the second-highest FanDuel point total (33.3) by a running back in a game this year. So, the only question is, how much David Johnson is too much David Johnson?
2. Adrian Peterson. Chris Johnson. And now, Jay Ajayi. That is the full list of players dating back to 1980 who, in Weeks 1-9, have rushed 109+ times, averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, and scored six rushing touchdowns. Yards per carry can be fluky, as a few long runs can inflate a back’s YPC, while heavy goal line usage can hurt a back’s YPC (see: Melvin Gordon). But Ajayi is earning his yards the hard way; he averages 3.7 yards after contact, which leads the NFL, by a lot (among players with at least 50% of team’s snaps, Jordan Howard is next with 3.3 YAC). Week 10 is absolutely stacked at running back, which means that Ajayi might have suppressed ownership; if so, he’s an excellent tournament play.
3. The Falcons allow the most receiving yards per game (60.8) and second-most receptions per game (7.89) to running backs this year. They take on the Eagles in Week 10, and Darren Sproles is in position to have a big game. He’s been on the field for 123 snaps in the last two games, compared to just 16 snaps for “lead back” Ryan Mathews. In fact, all other Eagles backs combined have been on the field for just 30 snaps in Weeks 8 and 9. Modestly priced at just $4,300 at DraftKings, Sproles is a fine value option for Week 10.
4. After allowing a minuscule 141.7 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns in Weeks 1-3, the Eagles have allowed nine passing touchdowns over the past four weeks; only the Colts and Titans, with 10 TDs apiece, have allowed more during that stretch. Despite its recent struggles, and despite the fact that its top corner, according to Pro Football Focus, is Nolan Carroll, who ranks 86th out of 117 qualified CBs, the Eagles pass defense is still ranked #1 in DVOA at Football Outsiders. The stellar reputation of the Eagles defense, coupled with with the fact that many will be trying to pay up at running back, could leave the Matt Ryan + Julio Jones stack much lower owned than usual in Week 10.
5. Emmanuel Sanders leads the NFL in red zone targets with 19. Thirteen of those targets have come inside the 10, and he’s the league leader there, too. Sanders had just eight red zone targets and two inside the 10 in ALL of 2015. Clearly, he’s someone Trevor Siemien feels comfortable throwing to in close quarters inside the 20, and in a matchup against the Saints, where the Broncos should have no trouble moving the ball (New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and 25th in rush defense DVOA), Sanders makes for a fine cash or tournament play this week.
6. Last season, DeAndre Hopkins had under 10 targets on three occasions. Through eight games in 2016, he’s had single digits in targets on five occasions. He’s being “Osweilered” into fantasy irrelevance, as is his teammate, Will Fuller, who, since Week 3, is averaging just 32.2 receiving yards per game.
7. Aaron Rodgers has 38 pass attempts in five straight games; that’s the second-longest streak in Packers history (Brett Favre had seven straight games of 38+ attempts from 2006-2007). His opponent, the Tennessee Titans, have allowed 10 touchdown passes in the last four weeks (most in the NFL) without allowing a single interception, despite facing Cody Kessler and Blake Bortles in two of those games. Given that the Packers running game is still in shambles (unless you believe James Starks is the savior), the Packers will be relying heavily on Rodgers once again. In a week without a clear-cut, must-have option at QB, he will likely have the highest ownership given his high floor.
8. With a 5.8 TD%, Marcus Mariota ranks behind only Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees in that metric. Since Week 5, Mariota has thrown for 13 touchdowns, which is tied with Rodgers for most in the NFL, not to mention his two rushing touchdowns during that stretch. If Rodgers is throwing at as high a volume as he has been in recent weeks, Mariota and the Titans could be playing catchup, which could lead to a few extra pass attempts for Mariota. One word of caution: Mariota’s rushing upside is a bit capped against the Packers, as they’ve allowed just 40 rushing yards to QBs all year (fourth-fewest in the NFL) despite facing some capable running QBs (Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck).
9. The Broncos are allowing a league-low 67.3 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. In other words, they’re turning enemy QBs into circa 2015 Peyton Manning (who had a 67.9 rating last year). And they’ve put up these numbers against some quality QBs. Here’s the list they’ve faced: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers (twice), Brock Osweiler, and Derek Carr. To my mind, there’s only one truly bad QB in the bunch. ALL of those QBs but Cam Newton had either their lowest or second-lowest games this season, in terms of DraftKings points, against Denver (and Newton would have, too, if not for 54 rushing yards and a rushing TD). There will be arguments made for Drew Brees as a tournament play this week (Aqib Talib’s absence being chief among them). But in a week where ownership should be spread out at QB (as you can see at RotoGrinders’ Projected Ownership page, rostering Brees, even at home, seems like a dicey proposition, and perhaps an unnecessary risk.
10. The Bears are allowing the most yards (195) and the fourth-most fantasy points (26.75) per game to wide receivers this season. Now, they’re tasked with stopping Mike Evans, who at 12.9 targets per game, is the second-most thrown to wideout since targets began being tracked in 1992. Their solution? “Throw Tracy Porter on him!” Porter is Pro Football Focus’s 70th-ranked cornerback, and they’re projecting that he will shadow Evans in coverage. Right…
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @cjscott for naming Eric Dickerson as the answer to last week’s trivia question. It was a “10 Notes” first, as the first guess was the correct answer. Either the question was too easy, or cjscott is a genius, or cjscott is secretly Eric Dickerson himself…
On to the Week 10 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize. Remember: if you’ve won before, please don’t leave any guesses.
In note #10 above, I mentioned that Mike Evans is the second-most thrown to WR in NFL history (or at least, he will be if he keeps up this target pace). Which wide receiver averaged the most targets per game over a full season (remember that targets weren’t tracked until 1992)?