Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, September 4th
The month of September is the beginning of many wonderful things including football season, the leaves turning different colors… Ok, so two wonderful things and only one if you’re the one who has to clean up those leaves. Anyway, the point is, here’s one thing about September that’s definitely not wonderful. It’s the month in which baseball teams and their seemingly infinite rosters meddle with their rotations the most, whether it’s to rest arms, set certain matchups, evaluated talent, or just mess with DFS players (and writers). What we have here today, is a set of pitchers, hopefully the correct set of pitchers, who we think are going to be taking the mound for their teams tonight, but it’s an ever-changing group of probables and what we wake up to on Friday could be different from what was put together Thursday night, which can be different from who actually pitches on Friday evening after various news breaks throughout the day. But this is what we’ve got for now and we’re going with it, though RG and Twitter will let you know if something changes.
Having just looked at the holiday schedule for Monday, there appears to be just four night games, so there will not be an article that day. Have a great holiday weekend and we’ll see you back here Tuesday.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report (and I’ll now add line movement) as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | OAK | -8.4 | 4.12 | 4.44 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 3.7 | 3.33 | SEA | 95 | 99 | 134 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 22.7% | 10.8% | 5.6% |
Adam Morgan | PHI | -4.9 | 5.25 | 5.58 | 0.54 | 1.07 | 5.57 | 4.95 | BOS | 111 | 100 | 97 | 16.8% | 5.3% | 18.9% | 13.7% | 11.5% |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 1.7 | 3.4 | 5.87 | 2.05 | 0.98 | 3.47 | 2.93 | PIT | 92 | 98 | 80 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% |
Chris Heston | SFO | 2.2 | 4.01 | 5.89 | 2.16 | 1.4 | 4.15 | 5.34 | COL | 97 | 96 | 119 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 20.6% | 15.4% | 10.3% |
Collin McHugh | HOU | -0.9 | 3.6 | 6.19 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 3.54 | 3.6 | MIN | 78 | 89 | 90 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 13.2% |
Corey Kluber | CLE | -1.3 | 2.82 | 6.88 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 2.65 | 2.72 | DET | 110 | 102 | 75 | 24.7% | 5.8% | 22.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% |
Drew Hutchison | TOR | -1.6 | 3.75 | 5.67 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 3.62 | 2.73 | BAL | 86 | 100 | 51 | 24.4% | 5.6% | 19.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% |
Edgar Olmos | SEA | -2.9 | 5.95 | 5. | 1.69 | 0.93 | 6.54 | 6.16 | OAK | 99 | 94 | 111 | 12.5% | 10.8% | 19.1% | 4.1% | 13.5% |
Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.3 | 3.59 | 6.39 | 1.91 | 0.91 | 3.48 | 2.97 | TEX | 89 | 97 | 102 | 21.0% | 7.1% | 20.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% |
J.A. Happ | PIT | -3.4 | 4.06 | 5.66 | 1.1 | 0.98 | 4.2 | 3.81 | STL | 102 | 88 | 136 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% |
Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2 | 3.11 | 6.45 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 3.39 | 3.39 | FLA | 82 | 81 | 107 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 18.8% | 6.5% |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 9.4 | 3.7 | 5.68 | 0.78 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 4.19 | NYY | 109 | 104 | 172 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 20.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% |
James Shields | SDG | -8.2 | 3.51 | 6.43 | 1.31 | 0.84 | 3.48 | 4.54 | LOS | 99 | 105 | 67 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 22.5% | 11.7% | 7.5% |
Joe Kelly | BOS | -3.8 | 4.27 | 5.56 | 1.85 | 1.07 | 4.05 | 4.19 | PHI | 86 | 85 | 99 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 22.9% | 9.9% | 5.7% |
John Danks | CHW | -7.4 | 4.62 | 5.92 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 4.75 | 4.11 | KAN | 112 | 99 | 137 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 22.9% | 13.0% | 8.2% |
Jon Lester | CHC | 4.1 | 3.16 | 6.62 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 3 | 2.77 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 102 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 22.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% |
Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -2.8 | 4.13 | 5.63 | 1.79 | 1.4 | 3.87 | 4.18 | SFO | 99 | 100 | 67 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 12.8% | 5.1% |
Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.3 | 3.84 | 6.36 | 0.89 | 1.03 | 4.12 | 4.53 | WAS | 102 | 98 | 152 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 16.6% | 8.3% |
Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 3 | 4.49 | 4.5 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 3.64 | 4.44 | MIL | 84 | 90 | 140 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 17.3% |
Kris Medlen | KAN | 10.2 | 3.14 | 6.73 | 1.48 | 1.04 | 3.04 | 3.16 | CHW | 89 | 91 | 76 | 22.4% | 5.7% | 19.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
Kyle Lobstein | DET | 4.2 | 4.68 | 5.79 | 1.69 | 1.05 | 4.67 | CLE | 88 | 97 | 94 | ||||||
Luis Severino | NYY | -5.2 | 3.72 | 5.8 | 1.38 | 1.02 | 3.58 | 4.63 | TAM | 98 | 93 | 129 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 19.8% | 12.5% | 17.0% |
Martin Perez | TEX | 2.9 | 4.1 | 5.96 | 2.05 | 0.91 | 4.24 | 3.98 | ANA | 101 | 88 | 95 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 20.6% | 9.4% | 6.3% |
Matt Garza | MIL | -3.9 | 4.29 | 5.91 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 4.61 | 5.11 | CIN | 99 | 89 | 118 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 21.4% | 13.1% | 7.8% |
Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 1.8 | 3.64 | 5.52 | 2.06 | 0.84 | 3.69 | SDG | 99 | 92 | 123 | ||||||
Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.6 | 4.8 | 5.45 | 1.78 | 1.01 | 5.06 | 4.56 | HOU | 108 | 99 | 105 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 22.5% | 9.7% | 7.9% |
Tanner Roark | WAS | -5 | 3.9 | 6.26 | 1.28 | 1.03 | 3.82 | 2.85 | ATL | 79 | 85 | 64 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% |
Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.3 | 4.39 | 5.92 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 3.96 | 4.49 | NYM | 90 | 96 | 121 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 22.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.7 | 3.94 | 5.71 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 4.19 | 4.88 | TOR | 124 | 110 | 152 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 20.8% | 15.1% | 12.6% |
Zachary Godley | ARI | 3.2 | 3.45 | 6. | 2.21 | 1.05 | 3.71 | 2.72 | CHC | 94 | 95 | 96 | 24.5% | 9.0% | 23.7% | 13.4% | 4.6% |
Aaron Brooks was bombed by Toronto in one of his four starts, but has allowed four runs over 20.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and just two walks in his other three and has an above average 15.4 K-BB% in 26.1 major league innings overall. Those numbers are very similar to what he’s done over 19 AAA starts between the Oakland and Kansas City systems this year. His fly ball tendencies shouldn’t hurt him and will probably even help him in Oakland as he takes on a mediocre Seattle offense that hits the ball hard (16.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 14.2 HR/FB on the road), but strikes out more than the average team. They have hit the ball extremely well over the last week (20.8 HR/FB), but park adjust down to a slightly favorable matchup here.
Carlos Martinez skipped a start as the Cardinals are watching his workload as he’s struggled since the break, allowing at least three runs in each of his last six starts, but he’s not really getting clobbered and his strikeout rate has remained above average (his SwStr% has actually improved). Further, not only has his velocity not dropped, but it’s seemed to increase over the last month or so. We’ll look into the factors that have caused his ERA to rise a little bit later. Pittsburgh is a below average road offense (15.0 K-BB%), who haven’t been hitting the ball well (3.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week) and are a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Collin McHugh has probably pitched better than his ERA for most of the season, as we’ve pointed out here several times in the past, but is only just recently, since the All-Star break, turning back the clock to 2014. He’s pitched at least six innings with two ERs or less in seven of eight starts and has a 26.2 K% over the last month. The Twins are the worst road offense in baseball (23.1 K%) and struggle vs RHP as well, providing a great matchup with little park adjustment for run environment.
Editor’s Note: Corey Kluber has been scratched from tonight’s start. Josh Tomlin will start in his place.
Corey Kluber is the cream of the crop tonight. His ERA might be a run higher than last season, but all of his estimators remain below three and his 22.8 K-BB% is right on target with last season’s. He has at least six strikeouts in 22 of 28 starts and an even better 24.3 K-BB% on the road since last season. He takes on a tough home team and an above average one vs RHP in an offensively friendly park, though they have struggled over the last week (16.8 K-BB%, 7.3 HR/FB, 4.4 Hard-Soft%).
Drew Hutchison dominated Detroit for seven innings (seven strikeouts) in his return to the majors after a two-week hiatus and has a 17.6 K-BB% at home since last season with all of his numbers, including ERA estimators at least a run better at home this season. He faces a poor road team in the Orioles (17.9 K-BB%) though they have a 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP. They have been the coldest offense in baseball with a 27.9 K% over the last week and seem to be a favorable matchup here even with the park bump.
Garrett Richards has not been pitching well, but did strike out nine in his last start, has only allowed more than three runs once in his last five starts, and does have underlying numbers that look better than his ERA. Despite losing something off his strikeout rate this year, he has retained his ability to induce weak contact (1.2 Hard-Soft%). Texas is a poor road team (15.0 K-BB%) and rates as a very good park adjusted matchup tonight.
J.A. Happ is a below average pitcher, who has looked great (1.98 ERA), but really been average below the surface with Pittsburgh (15.1 K-BB%, 8.5 SwStr%), but even that is an improvement. Tonight, he has an average park adjusted matchup overall against a St Louis team that has had issues with LHP (4.1 Hard-Soft%, 22.4 K%).
Jacob deGrom said he was sick after allowing seven runs with three of 19 batters homering and being knocked out in the 2nd inning in Philadelphia two starts ago. He backed those claims by striking out 10 of 25 Red Sox in the following outing. His 21.5 K-BB% is improved from his Rookie of the Year campaign and 8th in all of baseball. Though his estimators are a bit higher than his ERA and more in line with last season, he faces the worst offense at home and vs RHP (6.9 Hard-Soft% overall) in a great road matchup.
James Shields has been about average in his first year in San Diego, not what the Padres paid for, but kind of what his estimators the last two seasons had predicted. While his HR rate has dropped as the season’s gone on, so has his K%, though it’s remained above average. Ironically, his 17.0 K-BB% is his best in three years. Though Petco is supposed to be a great park, his 17.8 HR/FB nearly matches his 19.9 K-BB% there. While we’re not going to go into theories of why this may have happened, it’s possible the Padres may have over-estimated the power of their home field advantage in the way they attack hitters. At one point in time the Dodgers were the fiercest offense vs RHP, but are really just above average at this point (though still a 13.7 HR/FB and 13.4 Hard-Soft%) and well below average overall for the last few weeks. In fact, they might be tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
Keyvius Sampson has been hit hard (19.0 Hard-Soft%), including by this Milwaukee team last time out, and has a below average 9.0 K-BB%, but what you’d really be considering here is cost (near minimum) and matchup against a hot team (15.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week), but a poor offense on the road (15.2 K-BB%) and vs RHP (14.1 K-BB%).
Kris Medlen has allowed six ERs in 11.1 innings over two starts but struck out 11 of 45 batters with just two walks. Though it’s obviously a very small sample even if we include his bullpen work, a league average SwStr% is a positive sign. He faces a poor offense (6.0 Hard-Soft% overall) with just a 3.8 HR/FB and 4.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week in a very favorable matchup even with a bit of bump for the positive run environment.
Luis Severino has an above average 15.4 K-BB% through five starts and though a fly ball tendency with an above average walk rate in Yankee Stadium is a bit concerning, the upside in his strikeout rate and some strange contact numbers (25.5 LD% and -13.1 Hard-Soft%) have helped him out. He faces a mediocre Tampa Bay offense that has been hitting the ball well and rate as a slightly unfavorable matchup after the park adjustment.
Martin Perez has a below average 7.4 K-BB%, but an elite 60.0 GB% and 0.6 Hard-Soft% in eight starts post-TJS. While the inability to miss bats keeps his ceiling low, his other numbers portray a pitcher who should be experiencing better results than he has. He gets a park upgrade against an offense that has struggled against LHP despite leaning heavily RH in the middle of the order. It’s an overall great park adjusted matchup.
Mike Bolsinger did not pitch in the majors in August and one wonders what he did to merit such banishment. His estimators were more mediocre than his ERA, but it’s not like the Dodgers are drowning in pitching even after acquiring an under-performing Mat Latos and Alex Wood at the deadline. All he did was strike out 11 of 27 AAA Padres in his most recent start and now he gets to face the major league version, who are not much better (15.4 K-BB% at home, 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP) and represent a great park adjusted matchup tonight.
Tanner Roark gets only his 7th start of the year and his 1st since June. While he hasn’t pitched that well overall or missed a ton of bats, he has generated a lot of weak contact (2.7 Hard-Soft%) and has one of the top park adjusted matchups of the night against a team that matches his strengths (5.1 Hard-Soft%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and weaknesses (17.9 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Joe Kelly (August only .296 BABIP – 81.8 LOB% – 8.8 HR/FB) – His 11.3 K-BB% in August is not terrible, but not impressive either along with a 21.6 Hard-Soft%. While he may be better than the five-plus ERA he came into the month with, he’s still not good.
Jake Odorizzi (.281 BABIP – 75.7 LOB% – 6.6 HR/FB) – He’s in a difficult spot today against the hottest offense in baseball. What’s fine for Tampa Bay (his HR rate) has to be scrutinized in a much tougher park for LH power.
Adam Morgan (.256 BABIP – 77.8 LOB% – 11.2 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Julio Teheran has home/road splits similar to Drew Hutchison this year, of which he is on the wrong side of today.
Jorge de la Rosa
Ubaldo Jimenez faces the Toronto Maulers.
Chris Heston because Colorado.
Kyle Lobstein – Apparently a 4.5 K-BB% at AAA this season was enough to get him the recall and a starting spot today.
Edgar Olmos has struck out four while walking seven of the 55 major league batters he’s faced. He’s had obvious command issues throughout his minor league career and little prospect hype at 25 years old.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 17.2% | 5.2% | Home | 20.2% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
Adam Morgan | Phillies | 12.6% | 5.1% | Road | 11.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% |
Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.3% | 8.6% | Home | 22.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.9% |
Chris Heston | Giants | 18.0% | 8.0% | Road | 17.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 0.0% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.6% | 6.1% | Home | 22.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 7.4% |
Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.4% | 5.2% | Road | 29.3% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 5.6% |
Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.1% | 7.2% | Home | 24.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 0.0% |
Edgar Olmos | Mariners | 7.3% | 12.7% | Road | 6.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 14.3% |
Garrett Richards | Angels | 21.1% | 7.6% | Home | 21.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 5.3% |
J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.2% | 7.4% | Road | 17.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
Jacob deGrom | Mets | 26.2% | 6.4% | Road | 24.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 11.4% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 23.0% | 7.3% | Road | 20.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
James Shields | Padres | 22.2% | 6.2% | Home | 22.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.9% |
Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.7% | 8.8% | Home | 18.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 5.6% |
John Danks | White Sox | 15.3% | 7.8% | Road | 14.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.5% | 5.6% | Home | 25.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 1.7% |
Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.1% | 9.7% | Home | 20.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.9% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | 20.8% | 6.7% | Road | 19.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 18.8% | 9.8% | Home | 22.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
Kris Medlen | Royals | 24.7% | 6.4% | Home | 28.3% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 3.6% |
Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 12.8% | 8.2% | Home | 11.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
Luis Severino | Yankees | 24.8% | 9.4% | Home | 30.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 14.3% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | 15.6% | 7.4% | Road | 13.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
Matt Garza | Brewers | 17.2% | 7.7% | Road | 15.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 14.6% |
Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 20.9% | 8.0% | Road | 20.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | ||
Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 12.2% | 8.1% | Road | 8.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 7.0% |
Tanner Roark | Nationals | 16.9% | 4.9% | Home | 16.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.6% | 8.7% | Home | 19.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.6% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.3% | 9.9% | Road | 21.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 7.6% |
Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 23.7% | 8.6% | Road | 20.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariners | Road | 20.9% | 7.4% | RH | 21.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.7% |
Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 7.5% | LH | 19.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.7% |
Pirates | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.5% |
Rockies | Home | 18.1% | 6.7% | RH | 20.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 4.6% |
Twins | Road | 23.1% | 6.7% | RH | 21.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.3% |
Tigers | Home | 18.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 4.5% |
Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 6.2% | RH | 22.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 6.5% |
Athletics | Home | 16.4% | 7.3% | LH | 17.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.3% |
Rangers | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | RH | 19.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.5% |
Cardinals | Home | 18.8% | 8.5% | LH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.3% |
Marlins | Home | 19.3% | 6.8% | RH | 19.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.0% | 3.1% |
Yankees | Home | 20.0% | 8.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 14.2% |
Dodgers | Road | 20.9% | 9.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.5% |
Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 5.9% | RH | 20.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.3% |
Royals | Home | 13.9% | 6.9% | LH | 14.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.6% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | LH | 21.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.6% |
Giants | Road | 19.1% | 7.0% | LH | 18.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
Nationals | Home | 20.7% | 9.1% | RH | 21.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.8% |
Brewers | Road | 20.9% | 5.7% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.5% |
White Sox | Road | 19.6% | 5.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.6% |
Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.4% | LH | 18.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 5.1% |
Rays | Road | 20.6% | 7.3% | RH | 21.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.2% |
Angels | Home | 19.9% | 7.4% | LH | 18.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.8% |
Reds | Home | 19.1% | 8.9% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.3% |
Padres | Home | 21.9% | 6.4% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 4.7% |
Astros | Home | 24.3% | 8.5% | RH | 24.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.8% |
Braves | Road | 18.7% | 6.7% | RH | 17.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 12.4% |
Mets | Road | 21.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.8% | 10.5% |
Blue Jays | Home | 16.7% | 9.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.9% |
Cubs | Home | 24.1% | 9.4% | RH | 24.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 8.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 22.7% | 10.5% | 5.3% | Home | 17.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Adam Morgan | Phillies | 18.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% | Road | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Home | 20.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Chris Heston | Giants | 22.1% | 9.7% | 10.6% | Road | 22.9% | 13.0% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | Home | 22.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | Road | 22.4% | 8.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | Home | 20.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
Edgar Olmos | Mariners | 18.6% | 0.0% | 15.4% | Road | 21.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | Home | 18.8% | 6.9% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | Road | 22.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
Jacob deGrom | Mets | 22.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | Road | 19.9% | 11.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | Road | 22.1% | 12.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
James Shields | Padres | 21.7% | 12.1% | 10.0% | Home | 22.9% | 11.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.5% | 11.0% | 6.7% | Home | 26.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
John Danks | White Sox | 20.2% | 11.0% | 8.1% | Road | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.1% | 8.2% | 11.8% | Home | 21.3% | 6.9% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.8% | 13.7% | 7.0% | Home | 18.1% | 14.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | Road | 24.7% | 12.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 29.4% | 0.0% |
Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 25.5% | 12.5% | 21.9% | Home | 24.4% | 20.0% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
Kris Medlen | Royals | 21.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | Home | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 18.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | Home | 19.3% | 7.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | |||
Luis Severino | Yankees | 25.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% | Home | 7.7% | 15.4% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
Martin Perez | Rangers | 20.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | Road | 17.8% | 6.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
Matt Garza | Brewers | 22.0% | 10.6% | 12.0% | Road | 19.9% | 7.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 19.2% | 9.2% | 4.6% | Road | 20.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | |||
Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 22.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | Road | 21.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tanner Roark | Nationals | 21.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | Home | 20.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | Home | 19.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | Road | 22.9% | 13.4% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 23.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% | Road | 27.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariners | Road | 20.0% | 14.2% | 7.3% | RH | 20.2% | 12.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 20.8% | 7.5% |
Red Sox | Home | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | LH | 19.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 17.0% | 8.5% |
Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | RH | 21.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
Rockies | Home | 22.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | RH | 21.4% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.8% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
Twins | Road | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | RH | 20.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.3% | 15.1% |
Tigers | Home | 22.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | RH | 21.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
Orioles | Road | 20.9% | 12.2% | 11.1% | RH | 20.6% | 15.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 14.5% | 9.1% | 10.9% |
Athletics | Home | 19.6% | 6.8% | 11.3% | LH | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 17.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% |
Rangers | Road | 18.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | RH | 19.1% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | LH | 20.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
Marlins | Home | 18.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 13.8% | 6.9% |
Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 14.0% | 11.4% | RH | 21.0% | 13.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 16.2% | 4.1% |
Dodgers | Road | 21.4% | 12.9% | 10.2% | RH | 21.6% | 13.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% |
Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | RH | 22.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.9% | 4.8% |
Royals | Home | 21.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | LH | 22.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.8% | 12.7% | 6.3% |
Diamondbacks | Road | 20.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | LH | 19.3% | 11.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 15.6% | 4.4% |
Giants | Road | 22.3% | 11.7% | 6.1% | LH | 21.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 13.3% | 8.6% | RH | 21.0% | 13.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 21.3% | 9.8% |
Brewers | Road | 19.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | RH | 21.2% | 10.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.8% | 17.1% |
White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | RH | 21.4% | 10.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 3.4% | 8.5% |
Indians | Road | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | LH | 23.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
Rays | Road | 21.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 16.9% | 5.1% |
Angels | Home | 20.8% | 12.0% | 10.4% | LH | 18.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
Reds | Home | 23.1% | 12.1% | 9.2% | RH | 20.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 15.5% | 5.2% |
Padres | Home | 21.0% | 11.4% | 7.4% | RH | 19.7% | 10.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.9% | 7.0% |
Astros | Home | 17.8% | 17.3% | 9.7% | RH | 19.9% | 14.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 15.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% |
Braves | Road | 22.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | RH | 22.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 4.3% | 12.8% |
Mets | Road | 23.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | RH | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
Blue Jays | Home | 19.7% | 15.4% | 14.3% | RH | 19.3% | 14.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 13.0% | 10.9% | RH | 20.1% | 12.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.3% | 17.8% | 6.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | OAK | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.10 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
Adam Morgan | PHI | 12.6% | 9.5% | 1.33 | 12.6% | 8.6% | 1.47 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.1% | 10.1% | 2.39 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 2.00 |
Chris Heston | SFO | 18.0% | 8.8% | 2.05 | 11.5% | 7.6% | 1.51 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.86 | 26.2% | 11.6% | 2.26 |
Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.6% | 12.9% | 2.14 | 31.4% | 14.5% | 2.17 |
Drew Hutchison | TOR | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.05 | 23.2% | 11.9% | 1.95 |
Edgar Olmos | SEA | 7.3% | 3.1% | 2.35 | 7.3% | 3.1% | 2.35 |
Garrett Richards | ANA | 19.4% | 11.3% | 1.72 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 1.65 |
J.A. Happ | PIT | 18.2% | 7.4% | 2.46 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.49 |
Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.8% | 12.4% | 2.16 | 29.3% | 14.3% | 2.05 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.4% | 9.9% | 2.16 | 24.8% | 9.8% | 2.53 |
James Shields | SDG | 25.4% | 12.8% | 1.98 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 2.04 |
Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.3% | 7.5% | 2.44 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 2.02 |
John Danks | CHW | 16.3% | 8.9% | 1.83 | 15.3% | 9.4% | 1.63 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 24.6% | 10.4% | 2.37 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 2.28 |
Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 20.9% | 11.7% | 1.79 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 1.61 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.3% | 10.6% | 1.92 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 2.50 |
Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.27 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.96 |
Kris Medlen | KAN | 25.0% | 9.4% | 2.66 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 2.40 |
Kyle Lobstein | DET | 9.8% | 7.6% | 1.29 | |||
Luis Severino | NYY | 24.8% | 9.4% | 2.64 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 2.64 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 13.2% | 7.0% | 1.89 | 14.1% | 6.8% | 2.07 |
Matt Garza | MIL | 15.9% | 8.0% | 1.99 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 1.79 |
Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 21.4% | 8.3% | 2.58 | |||
Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.5% | 5.4% | 2.13 | 13.4% | 5.8% | 2.31 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.11 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.72 |
Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.8% | 7.3% | 2.30 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 1.63 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.1% | 8.2% | 2.57 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 2.89 |
Zachary Godley | ARI | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.04 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.17 |
Garrett Richards has a slightly higher SwStr% than last season and its improved even more over the last month while his K% is down significantly from 2014. What’s even odder is that Chris Iannetta (+14.3 RAA) has improved to become one of the better pitch framers in the league this season. Not many full season outliers are left at this point, but sometimes it happens.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | OAK | 5.47 | 3.79 | -1.68 | 3.93 | -1.54 | 3.59 | -1.88 | 7.36 | 3.94 | -3.42 | 3.87 | -3.49 | 4.16 | -3.2 |
Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.03 | 5.25 | 1.22 | 5.41 | 1.38 | 5.42 | 1.39 | 3.45 | 5.01 | 1.56 | 4.95 | 1.5 | 5.09 | 1.64 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.91 | 3.41 | 0.5 | 3.29 | 0.38 | 3.31 | 0.4 | 4.15 | 3.21 | -0.94 | 3.21 | -0.94 | 2.54 | -1.61 |
Chris Heston | SFO | 3.56 | 3.99 | 0.43 | 3.9 | 0.34 | 3.79 | 0.23 | 5.79 | 5.9 | 0.11 | 5.94 | 0.15 | 7.47 | 1.68 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 3.92 | 3.94 | 0.02 | 3.96 | 0.04 | 3.67 | -0.25 | 2.05 | 3.52 | 1.47 | 3.58 | 1.53 | 2.53 | 0.48 |
Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.41 | 2.93 | -0.48 | 2.98 | -0.43 | 2.87 | -0.54 | 2.63 | 2.64 | 0.01 | 3.07 | 0.44 | 3.83 | 1.2 |
Drew Hutchison | TOR | 4.87 | 3.96 | -0.91 | 4.04 | -0.83 | 3.84 | -1.03 | 2.45 | 3.51 | 1.06 | 3.74 | 1.29 | 3.06 | 0.61 |
Edgar Olmos | SEA | 2.13 | 5.95 | 3.82 | 5.89 | 3.76 | 4.4 | 2.27 | 2.13 | 5.95 | 3.82 | 5.89 | 3.76 | 4.4 | 2.27 |
Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.8 | 3.86 | 0.06 | 3.75 | -0.05 | 3.72 | -0.08 | 5.23 | 3.12 | -2.11 | 2.94 | -2.29 | 3.17 | -2.06 |
J.A. Happ | PIT | 4.1 | 4.15 | 0.05 | 4.01 | -0.09 | 3.82 | -0.28 | 1.98 | 3.69 | 1.71 | 3.53 | 1.55 | 2.62 | 0.64 |
Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.32 | 3.05 | 0.73 | 2.99 | 0.67 | 2.9 | 0.58 | 3.34 | 3.08 | -0.26 | 2.8 | -0.54 | 4.35 | 1.01 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.18 | 3.79 | 0.61 | 3.85 | 0.67 | 3.17 | -0.01 | 4.3 | 3.42 | -0.88 | 3.63 | -0.67 | 2.59 | -1.71 |
James Shields | SDG | 3.78 | 3.53 | -0.25 | 3.53 | -0.25 | 4.19 | 0.41 | 3.98 | 3.83 | -0.15 | 3.91 | -0.07 | 4.49 | 0.51 |
Joe Kelly | BOS | 4.94 | 4.25 | -0.69 | 4.1 | -0.84 | 4.22 | -0.72 | 1.69 | 4.31 | 2.62 | 4.06 | 2.37 | 3.92 | 2.23 |
John Danks | CHW | 4.82 | 4.55 | -0.27 | 4.58 | -0.24 | 4.47 | -0.35 | 4.88 | 4.64 | -0.24 | 4.44 | -0.44 | 4.99 | 0.11 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 3.59 | 3.21 | -0.38 | 3.09 | -0.5 | 3.06 | -0.53 | 5.04 | 3.37 | -1.67 | 3.2 | -1.84 | 3.43 | -1.61 |
Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.4 | 4.19 | -0.21 | 3.93 | -0.47 | 4.31 | -0.09 | 2.9 | 4.34 | 1.44 | 3.93 | 1.03 | 3.88 | 0.98 |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.62 | 4.16 | -0.46 | 4.14 | -0.48 | 4.57 | -0.05 | 4.75 | 3.94 | -0.81 | 4.13 | -0.62 | 4.88 | 0.13 |
Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 6.43 | 4.49 | -1.94 | 4.4 | -2.03 | 4.6 | -1.83 | 6.95 | 5.03 | -1.92 | 4.88 | -2.07 | 5 | -1.95 |
Kris Medlen | KAN | 3.51 | 3.23 | -0.28 | 3.6 | 0.09 | 3.76 | 0.25 | 2.79 | 3.01 | 0.22 | 3.48 | 0.69 | 3.39 | 0.6 |
Kyle Lobstein | DET | 4.34 | 4.83 | 0.49 | 4.55 | 0.21 | 4.12 | -0.22 | |||||||
Luis Severino | NYY | 2.17 | 3.72 | 1.55 | 3.58 | 1.41 | 3.72 | 1.55 | 2.17 | 3.72 | 1.55 | 3.58 | 1.41 | 3.72 | 1.55 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 5.15 | 3.92 | -1.23 | 3.95 | -1.2 | 3.18 | -1.97 | 3.86 | 3.6 | -0.26 | 3.64 | -0.22 | 3.26 | -0.6 |
Matt Garza | MIL | 5.56 | 4.58 | -0.98 | 4.41 | -1.15 | 4.94 | -0.62 | 7.24 | 4.62 | -2.62 | 4.42 | -2.82 | 5.26 | -1.98 |
Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 2.83 | 3.73 | 0.9 | 3.52 | 0.69 | 2.9 | 0.07 | |||||||
Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.85 | 4.64 | 0.79 | 4.49 | 0.64 | 3.87 | 0.02 | 4.81 | 4.57 | -0.24 | 4.26 | -0.55 | 2.77 | -2.04 |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.54 | 3.93 | -0.61 | 3.93 | -0.61 | 4.51 | -0.03 | 3.52 | 4.17 | 0.65 | 3.95 | 0.43 | 3.01 | -0.51 |
Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.12 | 4.56 | 0.44 | 4.53 | 0.41 | 4.6 | 0.48 | 5.83 | 5.12 | -0.71 | 5.3 | -0.53 | 5.39 | -0.44 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.34 | 3.83 | -0.51 | 3.7 | -0.64 | 4.07 | -0.27 | 5.52 | 4.12 | -1.4 | 4.07 | -1.45 | 4.6 | -0.92 |
Zachary Godley | ARI | 1.9 | 3.45 | 1.55 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 3.64 | 1.74 | 3.18 | 3.78 | 0.6 | 3.22 | 0.04 | 2.96 | -0.22 |
Aaron Brooks seems to be displaying the effects of one terrible start against the best offense in baseball (Toronto) and a small sample size surrounding it. He allowed eight runs in 1.2 innings in that start, but just eight more over 24.2 innings the rest of the way, responsible for a .333 BABIP and 61.7 LOB% overall with fairly normal tendencies in his batted ball profile and contact authority.
Carlos Martinez has estimators as good, if not better over the last month. In fact, a previous strand rate over 80% had his ERA looking a bit better than it probably should have been. In six starts since July 30th, his 18.5 K-BB% is actually an improvement, while he’s suffered through a .373 BABIP and 61.8 LOB%. His batted ball profile (19.9 LD%, 2.27 GB/FB) seems normal, while a 16.0 Hard-Soft% is a bit high, but doesn’t really entirely justify the results.
Collin McHugh has better estimators over the last month, but his tremendous ERA matches only his FIP due to a 3.6 HR/FB (and even a bit below that with an 82.7 LOB%).
Drew Hutchison has the biggest home and away splits in the majors as his estimators, BABIP, K-BB%, LOB%, HR/FB, GB/FB, and Hard-Soft% are all significantly better at home with no expected regression for numbers far outside the norm either.
Garrett Richards has improved his estimators over the last month with an 18.1 K-BB% in August, but suffered a .351 BABIP and 59.1 LOB%, though he had the highest ground ball rate (2.58 GB/FB with a 20.5 LD%) of any month with his most weak contact (-5.9 Hard-Soft%). In other words, his ERA seems like a complete fluke and was really the result of one terrible start, though a few mediocre ones where he may have deserved better were thrown in too.
J.A. Happ had just a 3.8 HR/FB with an 85.9 LOB% in August.
Jacob deGrom has a .252 BABIP, but a well-positioned defense and great Z-Contact%. It’s possible that he may be able to sustain something around .260 with his profile and circumstances though the 80.7 LOB% may be a bit too high.
Keyvius Sampson may be better than his ERA states, but really the fact that he’s generated seven pop ups in six starts is the one thing in his favor as he allows a lot of hard contact (25.5 LD%, 35.8 Hard%). That will give you a .363 BABIP and 65.3 LOB% that we might not expect too much regression from.
Luis Severino has great BABIP indicators so far in the chart below with the previously mentioned -13.1 Hard-Soft%, but does have a 25.5 LD%. It’s far too early to accept any sort of stabilization in these numbers. His 86.8 LOB% has a lot of potential regression built in though.
Martin Perez isn’t missing bats, but generating a ton of weak ground balls (60.0 GB%, 0.6 Hard-Soft%). While his 3.1 HR/FB is completely unsustainable, he doesn’t allow a lot fly balls so his HR total shouldn’t go up much and he should see plenty of regression in his .340 BABIP and 58.2 LOB%.
Mike Bolsinger has an unsustainable 4.6 HR/FB that probably pushes his ERA somewhere around three and a half if normalized, which we have no evidence that it shouldn’t eventually yet in his contact authority rates and a park that allows power to play up, even with a negative overall run environment.
Tanner Roark has a 15.8 HR/FB despite just a 2.7 Hard-Soft%. He had a 7.0 HR/FB last season. You have to figure this is something that normalizes but is the reason his ERA and FIP are much higher than the other estimators.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Brooks | OAK | 0.284 | 0.333 | 0.049 | 6.1% | 89.7% |
Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.316 | 0.256 | -0.06 | 11.2% | 87.4% |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.293 | 0.311 | 0.018 | 6.7% | 88.0% |
Chris Heston | SFO | 0.288 | 0.292 | 0.004 | 10.9% | 87.8% |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.281 | 0.306 | 0.025 | 10.8% | 86.3% |
Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.291 | 0.295 | 0.004 | 7.6% | 85.9% |
Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.281 | 0.337 | 0.056 | 13.7% | 85.2% |
Edgar Olmos | SEA | 0.297 | 0.233 | -0.064 | 15.4% | 96.3% |
Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.286 | 0.283 | -0.003 | 11.6% | 87.9% |
J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.303 | 0.319 | 0.016 | 13.3% | 88.2% |
Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.283 | 0.252 | -0.031 | 9.0% | 84.6% |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.283 | 0.281 | -0.002 | 9.2% | 85.8% |
James Shields | SDG | 0.299 | 0.309 | 0.01 | 9.7% | 84.1% |
Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.307 | 0.313 | 0.006 | 6.1% | 92.3% |
John Danks | CHW | 0.315 | 0.305 | -0.01 | 9.5% | 86.5% |
Jon Lester | CHC | 0.294 | 0.319 | 0.025 | 7.8% | 86.6% |
Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.314 | 0.288 | -0.026 | 4.0% | 86.9% |
Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.310 | 0.297 | -0.013 | 10.2% | 85.2% |
Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.287 | 0.363 | 0.076 | 21.9% | 86.0% |
Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.282 | 0.254 | -0.028 | 8.3% | 89.4% |
Kyle Lobstein | DET | 0.303 | 0.303 | 0 | 9.8% | 88.6% |
Luis Severino | NYY | 0.300 | 0.247 | -0.053 | 25.0% | 84.4% |
Martin Perez | TEX | 0.295 | 0.340 | 0.045 | 9.4% | 91.1% |
Matt Garza | MIL | 0.303 | 0.317 | 0.014 | 13.1% | 90.3% |
Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.300 | 0.303 | 0.003 | 4.6% | 92.4% |
Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.299 | 0.323 | 0.024 | 7.3% | 92.8% |
Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.308 | 0.291 | -0.017 | 7.9% | 90.4% |
Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.293 | 0.274 | -0.019 | 7.6% | 90.2% |
Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.295 | 0.316 | 0.021 | 12.9% | 89.0% |
Zachary Godley | ARI | 0.296 | 0.271 | -0.025 | 0.0% | 85.4% |
No additional notes today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Kris Medlen (5) – Here we have a situation where his cost on DraftKings is near the minimum and puts him in his own tier. It’s similarly low on other sites except for FanDuel, where it’s smack in the middle of the pack. The stuff seems up to par and makes him an absolute bargain in a strong matchup with the White Sox tonight.
Tanner Roark is near the minimum cost everywhere and probably won’t generate a lot of strikeouts, but should generate a ton of weak contact and decent results.
Value Tier Two
Garrett Richards (3t) – The price has dropped and he’s in a favorable spot at home. The stuff and the underlying numbers suggest there’s some hidden upside here that’s not entirely apparent in his ERA, especially over the last month. He’s generating tons of weak contact (as he did last year) and shows potential strikeout upside in his SwStr rate.
Drew Hutchison (7) faces a team with some power, but they’ve been slumping and he’s good at home for some reason and it’s backed up by just about everything in his profile and not just some fluky batted ball stuff. He’s in contention for one of the top projected strikeout rates tonight.
Corey Kluber (1) does not have the best matchup in Detroit tonight but is still the top overall pitcher tonight with my top projected K% and K-BB%.
Carlos Martinez (3t) – We’ve uncovered some evidence that it probably looks worse than it’s actually been over the last month where his ERA estimators and K-BB% have actually improved. More frequent hard contact is the only concern, but it’s not a huge one and he has a favorable matchup against Pittsburgh at home.
Mike Bolsinger (8) is one of the rare pitchers who’s price on DraftKings exceeds FanDuel. There was no good reason for his minor league banishment and he proved that with a double-digit strikeout effort in his last start. He returns in a great spot in San Diego.
Value Tier Three
Martin Perez has a fairly low ceiling due to a lack of bat-missing skills, but he has generated mostly weak ground balls that suggests he deserves a lot better than the results he’s been getting. He’s in a good spot tonight in a great park against an offense that struggles against LHP at the near minimum price. Don’t expect much, but he can be paired with a top priced pitcher for a potentially decent return.
Aaron Brooks has a decent matchup in a great park at the near minimum price and has really been about average (or even better) aside from one terrible start against the Blue Jays.
Collin McHugh (6) has been closer to the guy we saw in 2014 over the last month and though the price has climbed slightly, he faces the worst road offense in baseball.
Jacob deGrom (2) costs a significant amount, but bounced right back after being physically ill in Philadelphia and has a great matchup in Miami tonight, though he, like most Mets pitchers, has been a little less elite on the road (though still good). He’s the #2 overall guy, not far behind Kluber tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luis Severino – his cost has crept up pretty quickly on DraftKings where the underlying profile projects more decent pitcher than great.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.