Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, April 19th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-20 02:31:07

The introductions are going to be kept shorter on Tuesdays and Fridays this year (full days). Omitting the lone day game and odd 6pm ET start leaves 13 games to be covered below.

Important Note: Alfredo Simon has been scratched pretty late in the process. We’ve added a note below his original write up (which was just his name) about his replacement, Robert Stephenson, today.

New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated last week, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so I think we’re officially now searching for another option before the end of the month, which I’m not all that happy about because I really liked the three year thing they did.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Adam Conley lasted one bad inning before a long rain delay wiped out the rest his first start against these same Nats. He made up for it with an incredibly impressive 2nd start against the Mets (6 IP – 4 H – 0 ER – 1 BB – 9 K). He threw a lot of inside fastballs with unusual movement and now has a 22.6 K% in in 74 career innings to go along with a -0.5 Hard-Soft%. With average velocity, he kind of snuck through the minors without any prospect hype, not debuting until he was 25 last year, but it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen so far. As I learned the hard way though, the Nats might not be the best opponent for LHP because aside from Harper & Murphy, who hit LHPs well, Washington has a lineup full of solid RH bats. They’ve crushed LHP so far, but that’s still much fewer than 100 team PAs.

Alfredo Simon has since been scratched (which is the only way his name would appear in this portion of the article, though it’s a bit late in the process to remove him from the proceedings. In short, the guy replacing him, Robert Stephenson, is the top prospect for the Reds. His first start against the Phillies was under-whelming. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but has three pitches and missed bats at a well above average rate at every level of the minors. He’s also struggled greatly with his control (double digit walk rate everywhere) as young pitchers often do.

Alex Wood faces his original team. Much ado about March adjustments and improvements haven’t meant much through two starts (11.8 K%, 9.8 BB%), but at least 24 of his 38 batted balls have been on the ground and he has a -17.5 Hard-Soft% through two starts. That kind of contact bodes well against an extremely weak Atlanta offense and there is at least a bright spot in a league average SwStr% so far. The Braves have a 131 PAs against LHP so far without a HR and just a 22.5 Hard%.

Drew Smyly was lights out in his last start, striking out 11 of 26 Indians after allowing three HRs to the powerful Toronto lineup to open the season. His 15.8 SwStr% through two starts is the 2nd best number on the board today. Although the HR rate has flown a bit high, he’s really come into his own since the trade to the Rays and learning how to utilize his 90 mph fastball up in the zone in the right spots. Pay no attention to the Boston numbers vs LHP this year as it accounts for just 29 PAs so far.

Francisco Liriano should be the easy money against San Diego, but he missed his last start due to a hamstring issue and that plus an 18.4 BB% through his first two starts would probably have him in the “No Thank You” section against almost every other team. He also experienced a loss of velocity in that 2nd outing, possibly due to that hamstring. If he’s healthy, he might walk a few, but miss a lot of bats and generate frequent weak ground balls. If he’s not, and I’m not sure, he might walk a few more and not miss many bats. The Padres are terrible, which again, is the only reason we’re still talking about him, but they do lean almost entirely right handed.

Jaime Garcia pitched a ridiculous game his last time out, perfectly locating four pitches, resulting in a dominating one hit shutout with Brewers set down on strikes. Yeah, Brewers, but that’s still a major league team he did that too. The suddenly disciplined Cubs are going to be more difficult to do that to, but an on his game Garcia isn’t much different than what Dallas Keuchel did last year, which is lots of weak ground balls and a decent amount of missed bats. He doesn’t throw hard, but can and does throw all of his pitches for strikes. The Cubs are a well-balanced lineup with few weaknesses against pitchers from either side, but this is a tough park and they can be pitched to.

Logan Verrett is not going to blow you away or appear high on any prospect list. In fact, he’s probably perfectly fitted to the role of swing man, long relief, occasional spot starter and has acquitted himself quite well in those situations for the Mets over the last year. He’ll occasionally struggle with control, but miss a few bats and finds himself in a great spot in Philadelphia tonight.

Matt Cain allowed some runs in Colorado because that’s never going to be a good park for an extreme fly ball pitcher. His home park is ideal though and he’s been able to miss a few bats with his peripherals intact in Colorado along with start against the Dodgers in his first start. He’ll never be what he once was, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be useful in the right spots at home where he should be able to still keep the ball in the yard.

Michael Pineda doesn’t have good results (again) through two starts, but faced two very powerful offenses (Hou, Tor). Those two teams have struck out a lot early and continues to be strong on that front. By now, we have a decent idea who he is (great control with strong bat missing ability) and what’s causing his problems (20.2 HR/FB at home since last season). As much as Yankee Stadium can ever be a good spot for his skill set, this might be it tonight with a step down in class against the A’s. Not that they don’t have anyone who can park it in the seats, but they are not the caliber of offense he’s faced already.

Stephen Strasburg will not face Atlanta for the first time this season making it even more difficult to judge his first two starts, but everything seems to be in line aside from batted ball rates and contact authority, which you might expect to look better after starting the season with two straight starts against the Braves (61.8 GB%, -5.7 Hard-Soft%). While we’re not sure what the entirety of the consequences the new dimensions in Miami are going to incur, it’s still not a great offense or a team to avoid in that park.

Vincent Velazquez has had a nice start to his Phillies career. No doubt, you’ve heard about what he did to the Padres in his last start and there’s a ton of talent in that arm. He’s struck out 25 of 54 batters thus far, but a word of caution: he’s had control problems and he’s faced the Mets and Padres. He’s generating 20% whiffs on his fastball, which is electric, but even Syndergaard only got two whiffs on his fastball last night at 100 mph. The Mets offense has also improved a bit since he last saw them. However, right now he’s pumping nearly unhittable stuff into the strike zone (Zone% up from 47.4 to 60.9) and carries incredible upside.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Derek Holland (.205 BABIP – 84.9 LOB% – 6.7 HR/FB) has looked better than he did last season with at least a league average SwStr% so far, but has allowed a lot of hard contact (20.0 Hard-Soft%) in the air despite the low ERA through two starts and is in dangerous territory here today. Maybe I can talk about a healthy and again productive Holland more positively later in the season, but I don’t understand why he still carries a slightly higher than average price tag.

Mat Latos (.114 BABIP – 85.7 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) undershot his peripherals in a disastrous 2015 season, but it’s gone much the other way through two starts this season. Further, after a velocity rebound up a mph last season, he’s now down two mph so far this season and not missing any bats, yet his price tag yet his price tag has risen slightly, probably because he’s not giving up runs yet. The good news is he regained a little bit of velocity and looked a bit better in his second start, but that was against the Twins, so we’ll see, but we won’t pay to see tonight.

Robbie Ray (.250 BABIP – 77.8 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) – I’ll admit that he does miss a decent amount of bats and a league average K% will bring down his ERA estimators, but he’s walked just as many (nine) as he’s struck out so far. He somehow got away with a lot of hard contact last season (19.8 Hard-Soft%) to post a 7.3 HR/FB pitching in Arizona of all places and has yet to allow a HR this season. Maybe that continues in a top pitcher’s park tonight, but I still don’t trust him with even an average price tag against a quality offense.

Yordano Ventura (.200 BABIP – 88.2 LOB% – 9.1 HR/FB) – I don’t expect him to appear hear often or for long, but his quality results through two starts are a bit of an illusion. While he’s held his post All Star break gains in the K and SwStr department, putting him nearly in elite company, he’s doubled up on an already borderline walk rate so far (19.2 BB%), allowing frequent hard contact (30.8 Hard-Soft%), and has a rough assignment against the Tigers tonight. The Tigers lean heavily (almost entirely) right-handed, but he has no career platoon split.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Colin Rea got a glowing review with a #3 ranking on Fangraphs prospect list for the Padres, projecting him as a potential mid-rotation starter with command of three pitches and on a lesser day against a lesser team I might take a deeper look at him, but find it hard to judge him on one start in Colorado and another in Philadelphia this year with a 6.0 SwStr% to start his career.

Eric Surkamp

Jason Hammel has had good results (one ER in 12 IP), but has walked seven and struck out nine. The Cardinals didn’t muster much against Lackey last night, but that doesn’t mean we want to double up against a tough offense at home with a pitcher struggling with his control in the mid-price range, who has little chance of seeing the 7th inning anyway.

Joe Kelly is surprisingly missing bats, but he’s also missing the plate (17.4 BB%) and allowing a ton of hard contact (40.7 Hard%, 33.3 LD%). Only one of those things is good. He has faced perhaps the two hardest hitting offenses in the AL (Tor, Bal) so far, so we’ll have to watch to see if the bat missing continues, but trust in his track record a bit longer.

Jorge de la Rosa isn’t terrible and can occasionally be useful on the road, but retains a high HR rate away from home. Surely, this won’t sustain, but the Reds have an early 26.1 HR/FB vs LHP. They lean heavily right-handed with a lefty who hits LHP well in a hitter’s park.

Julio Teheran has pitched better at home, but has a tough matchup and continues to command an upper tier price tag for some unknown reason.

Marcus Stroman has seen his price tag finally drop. Good, now we can consider him because he doesn’t miss many bats, but generates a lot of weak ground balls (3.31 GB/FB, 26.9 Hard% this year – three starts). Oh, wait, he’s facing a smoking hot Orioles offense in April. Well, maybe next time he’ll be even cheaper.

Matt Shoemaker is really cheap on DraftKings, so I wouldn’t absolutely hate taking a flyer, but hasn’t shown well through two starts despite good results last time out. We might have more to say on a lesser day, but this is sufficient for a full one.

Mike Wright

Scott Feldman

Shane Greene – An Eno Sarris article featuring him, or more specifically his new slider, on Fangraphs last week potentially gave us more to talk about next time, but unfortunately he’s facing Kansas City tonight. Although, the Royals have struck out a league average rate so far. Bottom pitcher on the board on DraftKings….hmm? Eh, there was a lot of noise made about him after a strong start last year before he was destroyed and banished to the minors.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Alex Wood is sitting right at his career 9.0 SwStr%. It’s just two starts and means nothing really, but it’s up from last season and could bode well for his strikeout rate possibly returning to average if it continues.

Jaime Garcia got eight looking strikeouts against the Brewers and while that doesn’t happen often to anybody, he’s still getting swings and misses at an above average rate. In fact, last season’s 9.2 SwStr% was a career low and his only season in single digits.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

None of this stuff yet means much after two starts, but there are a few interesting tidbits.

Drew Smyly is all messed up ERA wise early on due to the three bombs against Toronto. That’s somehow left him with a 44.1 LOB% and .188 BABIP. None of this stuff is anywhere close to sustainable for any length of time of course.

Francisco Liriano has only allowed five fly balls through two starts, one of which left the yard for a 20.0 HR/FB. He’s otherwise stranded 90.4% of his runners. That’s a lot of walks left standing there.

Matt Cain allowed seven runs in Colorado. He has a high BABIP (and 47.6 LOB%), but the Giants have allowed a lot more hits than expected this season too.

Michael Pineda had a .332 BABIP last season as well, but still a .285 career mark in just over 400 innings. He’s going to give up HRs, although his HR/FB rate will probably be chopped in half from 25% once he get past the first month or two. It’s kind of difficult when you start right off with three bombs in your first start. He had just a 68.6 LOB% last season too, but should improve vastly on his early 62.5% strand rate.

Stephen Strasburg stranded 80% of his runners in his first two and will eventually allow HRs to non-Atlanta lineups.

Vincent Velazquez has a .231 BABIP, 100% strand rate, and no HRs allowed. Those numbers are going to change, but what do you expect when a guy has struck out nearly half the batters he’s faced.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

The Giants show you what a team BABIP might look like in April after an early series at Coors. The Mets show you what it might look like when you treat the ball like a hot potato.

Jaime Garcia is full of weak ground balls when healthy, as mentioned earlier, but has experienced some good fortune in the early going, at least in terms of BABIP. It hasn’t really shown up in his ERA due to stranding just six of 10 runners.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

A bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016. We’ll probably return to last year’s format after one more turn through the rotation.

Adam Conley was touted here as a sleeper in his first start, but that didn’t work out for a couple reasons. Unfortunately, his 2nd start took place during daylight hours and wasn’t covered here. While I might be a bit more tepid about him facing the Nationals again than I originally was, he’s still at a very reasonable price on the bottom half of the board and really hasn’t done anything except pitch well since he got here.

Alex Wood is not a high upside pitcher right now. If you are considering using him it’s because he’s cheap and facing Atlanta and you expect a lot of weak contact.

Drew Smyly – It still feels like he often doesn’t get the attention he deserves. Boston has long been a tough park for opposing pitchers, especially lefties, but this is a good one at a still very reasonable price.

Francisco Liriano is so tempting tonight because he’s pitching in San Diego, but is he healthy? If so, he could throw a gem and generate value even at a high cost, but I’d caution towards limiting exposure and perhaps not having any at outside GPPs unless you know for sure the hamstring is fine.
Jaime Garcia is not in a great spot tonight and you can’t expect him to duplicate his performance against the Brewers, but for the same cost, he might be more trustworthy than Liriano or even Vazquez.

Logan Verrett is towards the bottom of the board on DraftKings where he could serve as a secondary compliment with an expectation of quality start potential with a few strikeouts, but not much more. His FanDuel cost is a bit more and I’m not sure I’d choose him in single pitcher contests anyway.

Matt Cain is cheap and in a good spot in a great park at home tonight against the Diamondbacks. If we temper expectations towards what he probably is now rather than still expecting what he used to be, there can still be some value here, even if lacking past upside.

Michael Pineda keeps his cost moderate with two tough outings to start the season. The long ball may still be an issue tonight, but there’s always upside in this arm and the matchup is better against the A’s. He could allow a couple of balls to leave the yard, but still turn out a strong daily fantasy effort.

Stephen Strasburg is the costliest one tonight and while he may not top the overall value chart, he should be plenty fine with a good chance of generating one of the top point totals tonight. Thankfully, he’s skirted his traditional early season BABIP issues so far.

Vincent Velazquez might not be the stone cold lock many probably consider him to be tonight. You have to remember he’s faced two struggling teams and has exhibited control issues in the past. I’m almost wondering if there’s some merit to a fade with very high expected ownership. However, I think you have to have some exposure to him as the upside, as we’ve already seen, has no peak with his fantastic stuff and his price tag hasn’t even cracked $10K yet.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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