Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, June 9th
It’s funny that just as I was going to post today’s article, I realized I hadn’t written an intro yet. Instead of agonizing about three sentences to put here today, I realized it was better to just accept the fact that one might not have something interesting to say every day and I expect most readers skip this part anyway, so I’ll just tell you to remember to check for updates on lineups, weather, and umpiring as always because they unbalance a lot of the things written below.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -1.6 | 4.25 | 6.11 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 4.38 | 5.01 | CIN | 103 | 91 | 107 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 21.3% | 10.1% | 12.3% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 9.1 | 3.61 | 6.06 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 3.83 | 4.65 | CHC | 97 | 89 | 91 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 1.9 | 4.48 | 5.57 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 4.59 | 6.36 | PHI | 76 | 69 | 94 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 22.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 7.4 | 3.58 | 5.13 | 2.19 | 0.89 | 3.73 | 4.25 | ARI | 96 | 94 | 83 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -6.3 | 4.5 | 5.62 | 1.27 | 1.08 | 5.08 | 2.87 | HOU | 101 | 97 | 74 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 21.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | -3.8 | 3.57 | 5.75 | 2.29 | 0.88 | 3.68 | 3.08 | NYM | 105 | 89 | 113 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 23.3% | 10.7% | 12.7% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 14.4 | 5.12 | 5.61 | 0.38 | 1.05 | 5.33 | 4.08 | MIN | 111 | 84 | 62 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 21.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -5 | 2.76 | 6.74 | 1.62 | 0.94 | 2.49 | 1.91 | SEA | 90 | 89 | 79 | 27.1% | 5.6% | 21.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -6 | 3.19 | 6.71 | 3.12 | 1.08 | 3.23 | 1.93 | CHW | 72 | 39 | 57 | 21.2% | 5.2% | 20.7% | 12.9% | 12.8% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 7.1 | 3.71 | 5.82 | 0.97 | 1.05 | 3.82 | 4.64 | TOR | 130 | 109 | 135 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 11.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -3.6 | 3.19 | 7.1 | 1.45 | 1.04 | 2.98 | 3.19 | BAL | 103 | 93 | 78 | 24.5% | 6.3% | 19.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -5.6 | 3.51 | 5.92 | 1.97 | 0.91 | 3.4 | 1.6 | MIL | 74 | 65 | 92 | 24.8% | 6.9% | 18.2% | 10.0% | 4.7% |
| James Shields | SDG | -16 | 3.6 | 6.54 | 1.22 | 0.98 | 3.44 | 4.16 | ATL | 94 | 95 | 109 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 20.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1.8 | 3.42 | 6.59 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 3.33 | 2.87 | DET | 105 | 115 | 87 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 21.0% | 12.9% | 9.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.7 | 4.12 | 5.54 | 1.75 | 1.4 | 3.84 | 4.66 | STL | 88 | 87 | 67 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 20.0% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 2.8 | 4.3 | 6.33 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 4.19 | 4.5 | FLA | 93 | 112 | 110 | 16.0% | 5.1% | 20.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -7.1 | 2.72 | 6.61 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 2.81 | 1.24 | WAS | 99 | 98 | 71 | 25.7% | 5.5% | 19.8% | 10.1% | 7.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.4 | 3.33 | 5.9 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 3.8 | 4.01 | TAM | 110 | 94 | 60 | 21.7% | 6.6% | 22.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -3.8 | 2.97 | 6.7 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 3.02 | 2.56 | NYY | 116 | 106 | 138 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 20.7% | 11.9% | 6.9% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 6.5 | 3.76 | 5.92 | 1.22 | 1.4 | 3.85 | 3.49 | COL | 94 | 99 | 133 | 19.0% | 6.5% | 22.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 6.9 | 4.32 | 6.09 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 2.52 | BOS | 82 | 95 | 112 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 21.2% | 13.7% | 9.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.4 | 3.97 | 6. | 0.66 | 0.98 | 4.75 | 3.3 | SDG | 90 | 89 | 109 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 19.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 10.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 4.47 | 4.14 | ANA | 81 | 95 | 99 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 7.4% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | -0.8 | 5.02 | 5.54 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 4.91 | 4.05 | OAK | 109 | 110 | 100 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 22.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -0.7 | 2.92 | 5.64 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 3.38 | 1.67 | SFO | 116 | 110 | 113 | 22.4% | 4.5% | 23.9% | 8.8% | 13.6% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.3 | 4.42 | 4.63 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 3.07 | 3.99 | LOS | 122 | 91 | 93 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 23.8% | 9.5% | 5.2% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | -5.2 | 4.01 | 5.82 | 1.29 | 0.94 | 3.97 | 4.45 | CLE | 120 | 111 | 97 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -9.3 | 3.41 | 6.56 | 2.03 | 0.93 | 3.45 | 2.49 | TEX | 98 | 95 | 109 | 21.9% | 7.6% | 18.3% | 10.7% | 11.7% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0.91 | PIT | 99 | 94 | 106 | ||||||||
| Trevor May | MIN | 3.3 | 3.8 | 5.26 | 0.97 | 1.05 | 4.33 | 2.39 | KAN | 107 | 100 | 61 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 22.6% | 7.9% | 12.3% |
Anibal Sanchez has a rough outing his last time out, which has happened a few times this year. The difference last time though, was that he walked four and only struck out one after a string of starts where he struck out at least nine in three of his previous four. The good news is that he goes from low strikeout Oakland to the Cubbies, who strike out 25.8% vs RHP.
Carlos Frias has not been very good in a starting role lately, although his results have alternated between good and bad. He has just nine total strikeouts and nine total walks over his last four starts, but there is reason to be a little encouraged, which we’ll talk about later. Arizona is a slightly positive matchup that becomes very favorable with a park adjustment.
Chris Heston burned us last time in what felt like a decent spot at home against the Pirates, but did strike out six of 21 batters, though there were several balls hit hard. He still has just a 0.5 Hard-Soft% on the year and a solid 13.2 K-BB%. The Mets struggle against RHP and go from a neutral to a good park adjusted matchup.
Corey Kluber has the top projected K% of the day and I’m sure I don’t have to justify this projection, but he’s had at least seven Ks in each of his last six starts with at least nine in four of those. He’s also gone at least eight innings in four of his last five. Lots of innings and strikeouts. What else could you ask for in a pitcher? He has a 24.0 K-BB% at home since the start of last season. He’s got a good matchup in a great park against a team that strikes out 23.6% vs RHP and just a 2.6 HR/FB over the last week.
Dallas Keuchel usually doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, but has struck out 18 of his last 55 batters, including 11 of these White Sox two starts back with 13 ground balls. His 64.2 GB% is 2nd in the majors. The White Sox might be the worst offense ever vs LHP with a 17.7 K-BB% and 6.0 HR/FB. Even with a positive park adjustment, they still rate as the top matchup of the day by far. They generate just a 2.1 Hard-Soft% vs lefties, while Keuchel has a league leading -7.7 H-S% overall.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been dominant, striking out 14 of the 53 batters he’s faced, allowing just one ER over 14.2 innings in two starts. He faces a Baltimore team that is really a neutral matchup in Baltimore. They have a 14.0 HR/FB at home, but have a 28.3 K% over the last week.
Francisco Liriano is coming off his 3rd straight strong start and returns home to face a RH heavy Milwaukee lineup. They have not been good vs LHP though, with the 2nd worst offense, striking out 23.0% of the time. They’ve been equally terrible on the road and although Liriano has a 15.6 HR/FB at home, it comes with a 24.1 K%.
Jon Lester struggled through his last start, but the peripherals weren’t terrible. He has allowed eight of his nine HRs in his last six starts though. The Tigers are a tough matchup at home and the 2nd best offense vs LHP. The do strike out 22.3% vs lefties though and have just a 7.5 HR/FB at home with a 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Lester had been enjoying a good run previous to this and I’d expect him to bounce back.
Masahiro Tanaka -showed no ill effects from missing nearly a month and a half, returning to strike out nine Mariners. His elbow may pop at any time, but he’s shown he can still generate swings and misses in the meantime. Washington just hasn’t been able to sustain a steady offensive attack all season, but do have a 13.4 HR/FB vs RHP, while Tanaka has been prone, with a 16.2 HR/FB at home.
Matt Shoemaker has seen his velocity bump up a little bit over the last month, although not quite back to last year’s 90.5 mph yet. His results have improved slightly with it, but there are enough reasons for optimism with a K% that matches last year’s rate. The problem has almost entirely been in his HR rate (17.8 HR/FB). A decent matchup in a good park should help him, but he already pitches in a great park, so who knows.
Max Scherzer is coming off his worst start of the season in Toronto. He’s been a beast this year, but this might be an even tougher spot. You’d still expect him to pitch well, but have to wonder if you want to pay the top price for him tonight. The Yankees a 15.6 HR/FB at home and 15.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Miguel Gonzalez is a name I expected to skip by today, but he hasn’t pitched poorly and finds himself in a decent enough spot tonight. He has 14 Ks without a walk over his last two starts. The Red Sox don’t strike out: only 16.3% on the road and 16.6% vs RHP. They also don’t hit the ball hard (6.4 Hard-Soft%) and Gonzalez has a 6.7 Hard-Soft% this season. I won’t go so far to say he’s my favorite today or even a big sleeper, but if he can keep generating that kind of contact, while not walking anyone, he has a chance to be decent with a career high 20.8 K% now.
Michael Foltynewicz has been pitching well for the Braves recently and has at least seven strikeouts in five of his seven starts. He’s in a good enough spot at home against the Padres tonight too. If you’re looking for a potentially above average rate of strikeouts with a good matchup that many other people may not be attuned to, this may be your guy.
Nate Karns struggled in his last start against these Angels in LA and now has a concerning 33.9 Hard% on the season, allowing his first two road HRs of the season. It’s strange to see a pitcher in Tampa Bay having the highest HR/FB in the chart above, but he’s allowed six in six home starts this year. The upside here is that the Angels have been bad on the road and have a 26.3 K% over the last week.
Noah Syndergaard took his worst major league beating in a game where he may have had his greatest stuff in San Diego. He struck out 10 of the 22 batters he faced, but still allowed seven ERs. What might be most impressive is that he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts. The Giants have the top road offense in baseball and are 2nd vs RHP with just a 17.4 K% against them. This would seem like a really bad spot for him, but the park might play it down to something more neutral.
Robbie Ray hasn’t been bad in either of his starts this year and has surprisingly walked just one of the 44 batters he’s faced despite having double digit walk rates at nearly every stop in the minors. The negative would be a 35.3 Hard% and a matchup with the top home offense in baseball (14.3 HR/FB). They haven’t been as good vs LHP however.
Sonny Gray is usually a difficult decision because you’re never sure about his strikeout upside. He has been very good at home, not allowing more than two ERs in a start in Oakland yet and a somewhat neutral Texas offense on the road vs RHP plays down to a solid one in that park. They’ll strike out a little more than league average. Gray has managed contact most impressively this season, with just a 19.3 Hard% and -0.4 Hard-Soft%.
Taylor Jungmann has been falling down the Milwaukee prospect list over the last couple of years, but finally makes his debut at age 25. He’s been unimpressive in AAA this season with just a 9.7 K-BB% in 59.1 IP, though he has only allowed two HRs.
Trevor May has a season high nine strikeouts in two of his last three. Tonight, he has the misfortune of having most of that upside stripped from him against a Kansas City offense that strikes out just 16.7% vs RHP. They don’t walk and don’t hit the ball hard, while being really cold offensively over the last week, so this may not be a total disaster.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Aaron Harang (.253 BABIP – 74.0 LOB% – 3.8 HR/FB)
Anthony DeSclafani (.255 BABIP – 68.5 LOB% – 5.3 HR/FB) – His BABIP isn’t italicized as a function of the Cincinnati team defense being really good at limiting hits, but its close.
Carlos Rodon (.343 BABIP – 77.3 LOB% – 3.0 HR/FB) – More importantly, he has a 14.0 BB% and 30.0 Hard%, though he has walked just three of his last 52 batters with 14 Ks.
Chris Young (.214 BABIP – 78.7 LOB% – 5.2 HR/FB) – A .250 career BABIP is still not .214, even though he’s been able to beat his xFIP by about a run throughout his career.
Dan Haren (.241 BABIP – 85.6 LOB% – 11.6 HR/FB)
Michael Wacha (.236 BABIP – 82.6 LOB% – 7.2 HR/FB)
Nick Martinez (.300 BABIP – 78.9 LOB% – _6.8 HR/FB)
Roenis Elias (.286 BABIP – 85.3 LOB% – 11.1 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU
James Shields – This is more about cost and lack of upside today. He should be ok, but is expensive and the Braves have a 17.1 K% vs RHP, while he’s struck out just 10 of his last 54 batters.
Jorge de la Rosa
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 17.8% | 7.6% | Road | 15.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 21.8% | 7.0% | Home | 20.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 16.0% | 7.6% | Home | 14.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 1.9% | 7.4% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 16.7% | 6.2% | Home | 15.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 22.3% | 14.0% | Home | 21.0% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 5.8% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 19.4% | 6.9% | Road | 18.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 16.3% | 8.4% | Road | 13.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.9% | 5.2% | Home | 28.3% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 3.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.1% | 6.5% | Road | 17.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 2.4% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 19.7% | 4.9% | Road | 19.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 26.4% | 7.6% | Road | 25.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 7.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.3% | 10.7% | Home | 24.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.1% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.0% | 6.0% | Road | 22.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 22.7% | 6.2% | Road | 23.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.1% | 9.2% | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 16.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.1% | 5.3% | Home | 13.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 1.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 26.6% | 4.3% | Home | 27.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.8% | 5.0% | Road | 20.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 10.2% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 27.9% | 6.4% | Road | 29.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.7% | 7.2% | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.2% | 7.5% | Home | 18.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 21.3% | 8.2% | Home | 21.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 5.6% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.0% | 10.5% | Home | 20.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 11.6% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 13.1% | 8.5% | Road | 13.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 26.0% | 4.1% | Home | 22.0% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 15.6% | 6.7% | Road | 24.2% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 20.2% | 9.0% | Road | 20.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.9% | 7.8% | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 5.4% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Trevor May | Twins | 20.9% | 6.9% | Home | 15.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 2.1% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 19.0% | 9.5% | RH | 18.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 25.0% | 8.2% | RH | 25.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.4% | 5.9% | RH | 19.7% | 5.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.8% | 6.8% | RH | 20.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Road | 24.0% | 7.8% | LH | 25.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Home | 18.5% | 9.1% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.6% |
| Twins | Home | 18.3% | 5.8% | RH | 21.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.3% | 7.2% | RH | 23.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.7% | 6.6% | LH | 22.8% | 5.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.4% | 9.7% | RH | 19.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.1% | 6.3% | LH | 19.8% | 4.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 4.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.6% | 5.4% | LH | 23.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 4.5% |
| Braves | Home | 18.2% | 8.6% | RH | 17.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.5% | 8.1% | LH | 22.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 3.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 7.2% | LH | 23.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.7% | 6.0% | LH | 21.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 4.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 8.9% | RH | 20.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.6% |
| Rays | Home | 22.5% | 7.7% | RH | 21.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.8% | 8.3% | RH | 19.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 16.5% | 6.6% | RH | 19.1% | 5.5% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.3% | 8.9% | RH | 16.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.6% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 21.4% | 7.5% | RH | 21.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.6% |
| Angels | Road | 20.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 11.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.2% | 8.0% | RH | 17.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.6% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 7.3% | RH | 17.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.5% | 8.7% | LH | 21.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.6% |
| Indians | Home | 18.0% | 11.5% | LH | 15.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.6% | 7.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.4% | 6.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.3% |
| Royals | Road | 17.0% | 5.3% | RH | 16.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | Road | 23.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 11.8% | 29.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.5% | 7.4% | 10.3% | Home | 21.3% | 7.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 22.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | Home | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 19.2% | 11.3% | 4.8% | Home | 18.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 21.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | Home | 22.2% | 0.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 23.3% | 11.8% | 15.7% | Road | 27.8% | 20.0% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 18.8% | 8.0% | 14.4% | Road | 19.9% | 12.1% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | Home | 20.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.4% | 12.0% | 9.8% | Road | 18.9% | 10.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | Road | 19.6% | 14.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 20.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | Road | 16.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.3% | 11.3% | 6.5% | Home | 20.1% | 15.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | Road | 18.1% | 14.7% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | Road | 19.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 20.7% | 11.5% | 8.1% | Home | 19.2% | 12.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.7% | 8.2% | 11.3% | Home | 21.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 23.1% | 12.4% | 10.9% | Home | 23.8% | 16.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 20.3% | 11.9% | 6.2% | Road | 20.6% | 11.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | Road | 21.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.7% | 6.4% | 9.9% | Road | 22.1% | 6.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.2% | 12.4% | 12.0% | Home | 20.5% | 11.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 19.6% | 9.0% | 14.6% | Home | 17.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 17.1% | 15.0% | 8.8% | Home | 15.8% | 20.9% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.0% | 7.8% | 11.1% | Road | 20.6% | 6.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 22.0% | 6.9% | 17.2% | Home | 22.2% | 0.0% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 23.9% | 9.1% | 5.5% | Road | 20.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 20.8% | 10.4% | 11.8% | Road | 18.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | Home | 18.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Trevor May | Twins | 22.5% | 8.7% | 15.9% | Home | 22.2% | 6.4% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 14.8% | 9.3% | RH | 21.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.6% | 12.2% | 9.5% | RH | 20.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.7% | 5.3% | 8.8% | RH | 22.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.0% |
| Astros | Road | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | LH | 18.7% | 13.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 10.5% | 12.9% | RH | 23.4% | 8.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 24.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Twins | Home | 22.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | RH | 21.2% | 8.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.2% | 15.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.7% | 12.8% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 11.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | LH | 20.8% | 6.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.3% | 14.4% | 15.1% | RH | 18.6% | 12.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 12.0% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.6% | 14.0% | 8.1% | LH | 19.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | LH | 13.7% | 12.6% | 3.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| Braves | Home | 22.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | RH | 22.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 13.5% | 10.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | LH | 23.5% | 11.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.6% | LH | 19.4% | 10.3% | 12.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.4% | 13.0% | 8.2% | LH | 22.0% | 17.1% | 5.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 13.0% | 6.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 12.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.9% | 13.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| Rays | Home | 22.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.6% | 15.6% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 13.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.1% | 15.9% | 6.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 23.1% | 12.0% | 9.3% | RH | 21.3% | 15.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | RH | 20.3% | 10.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Padres | Road | 19.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | RH | 19.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 17.7% | 10.9% | 7.0% | RH | 20.3% | 11.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 13.3% | 8.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.6% | 6.1% | 8.7% | RH | 21.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.5% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Road | 25.4% | 11.7% | 7.5% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.8% | 12.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.8% | 14.3% | 8.7% | LH | 22.8% | 10.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 12.3% | 4.6% |
| Indians | Home | 23.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | LH | 22.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | RH | 17.8% | 10.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.6% | 12.7% | 6.1% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| Royals | Road | 25.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | RH | 22.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.16 | 15.5% | 8.1% | 1.91 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.14 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.76 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 1.67 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 13.4% | 9.6% | 1.40 | 10.5% | 9.5% | 1.11 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.3% | 9.8% | 2.28 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 2.46 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 19.6% | 8.6% | 2.28 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 2.82 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 18.7% | 9.8% | 1.91 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 1.95 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 30.6% | 15.0% | 2.04 | 39.3% | 17.4% | 2.26 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.0% | 9.3% | 2.15 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.12 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 16.9% | 5.7% | 2.96 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 2.71 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.4% | 8.7% | 3.03 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 3.03 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 30.0% | 13.9% | 2.16 | 31.1% | 14.3% | 2.17 |
| James Shields | SDG | 29.3% | 14.0% | 2.09 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 2.09 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.31 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 2.17 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 24.0% | 13.3% | 1.80 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 1.67 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.12 | 12.2% | 5.7% | 2.14 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 29.2% | 10.3% | 2.83 | 39.1% | 10.3% | 3.80 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.57 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.3% | 13.8% | 2.12 | 29.9% | 14.3% | 2.09 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 16.3% | 8.7% | 1.87 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.11 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 1.85 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 23.4% | 9.7% | 2.41 | 25.0% | 10.5% | 2.38 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 21.9% | 7.9% | 2.77 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 14.1% | 8.3% | 1.70 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 2.04 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 26.0% | 7.9% | 3.29 | 26.0% | 7.9% | 3.29 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.5% | 7.9% | 2.59 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 18.9% | 9.3% | 2.03 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 1.81 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.26 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.14 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | ||||||
| Trevor May | MIN | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.24 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.64 |
Carlos Frias – On May 24th, he had a 4.4 SwStr% against the Padres. In the other five of his six most recent starts, he’s had a SwStr of at least 9.4% and in double digits four times. Carlos Frias should absolutely be getting a lot more strikeouts.
Corey Kluber leads the majors in SwStr% and an amazing last month has led that push.
Eduardo Rodriguez has had a consistent SwStr% in both starts, which suggests a lower K%. The sample is too small to make a judgment yet, but he does have a history of slightly lower strikeout rates in the minors, though still above average.
Masahiro Tanaka – We’re still dealing with limited information and nobody is going to complain about a double digit SwStr% from a guy who probably needs Tommy John, but we should probably be expecting a drop in his K% going forward.
Nate Karns does have a double digit SwStr% in four of his last six starts, but is below 6% in the other two, including his last start against the Angels.
Noah Syndergaard had his first double digit SwStr game (13.1%) in his last outing. That’s more in line with what was expected of him and a good sign if he wants to maintain that K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 2.45 | 4.36 | 1.91 | 4.46 | 2.01 | 3.24 | 0.79 | 2.56 | 4.7 | 2.14 | 4.89 | 2.33 | 3.91 | 1.35 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.69 | 3.8 | -1.89 | 3.88 | -1.81 | 4.5 | -1.19 | 6.27 | 4.04 | -2.23 | 3.99 | -2.28 | 5.28 | -0.99 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.6 | 4.94 | 1.34 | 4.76 | 1.16 | 3.94 | 0.34 | 4.97 | 5.4 | 0.43 | 5.03 | 0.06 | 3.84 | -1.13 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 4.25 | 3.98 | -0.27 | 3.88 | -0.37 | 3.85 | -0.4 | 5.16 | 4.41 | -0.75 | 4.27 | -0.89 | 4.16 | -1 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.12 | 4.5 | 1.38 | 4.33 | 1.21 | 3.37 | 0.25 | 3.18 | 4.33 | 1.15 | 4.01 | 0.83 | 3.29 | 0.11 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 4.29 | 3.5 | -0.79 | 3.38 | -0.91 | 3.54 | -0.75 | 5.53 | 3.51 | -2.02 | 3.42 | -2.11 | 4.09 | -1.44 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 2.56 | 4.64 | 2.08 | 4.84 | 2.28 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 3.45 | 5.13 | 1.68 | 5.13 | 1.68 | 4.05 | 0.6 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.61 | 2.37 | -1.24 | 2.36 | -1.25 | 2.23 | -1.38 | 2.03 | 1.45 | -0.58 | 1.52 | -0.51 | 1.19 | -0.84 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.85 | 2.96 | 1.11 | 2.93 | 1.08 | 2.78 | 0.93 | 2.95 | 2.55 | -0.4 | 2.5 | -0.45 | 2.93 | -0.02 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.18 | 4.29 | 1.11 | 4.42 | 1.24 | 4.57 | 1.39 | 3.77 | 4.24 | 0.47 | 4.5 | 0.73 | 4.56 | 0.79 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.61 | 3.18 | 2.57 | 3.07 | 2.46 | 2.91 | 2.3 | 0.61 | 3.19 | 2.58 | 3.07 | 2.46 | 2.91 | 2.3 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 3.24 | 2.95 | -0.29 | 2.76 | -0.48 | 3.07 | -0.17 | 3.86 | 2.49 | -1.37 | 2.24 | -1.62 | 2.47 | -1.39 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.58 | 2.87 | -0.71 | 3.08 | -0.5 | 4.29 | 0.71 | 2.73 | 3.02 | 0.29 | 3.14 | 0.41 | 3.45 | 0.72 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.86 | 3.42 | -0.44 | 3.25 | -0.61 | 3.76 | -0.1 | 3.66 | 3.43 | -0.23 | 3.34 | -0.32 | 4.96 | 1.3 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 6.15 | 3.95 | -2.2 | 3.65 | -2.5 | 3.77 | -2.38 | 4.57 | 4.6 | 0.03 | 4.28 | -0.29 | 4.45 | -0.12 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 4.35 | 4.76 | 0.41 | 4.48 | 0.13 | 4.51 | 0.16 | 2.97 | 4.61 | 1.64 | 4.44 | 1.47 | 3.8 | 0.83 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.76 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 3.01 | 0.25 | 2.47 | -0.29 | 1.29 | 1.24 | -0.05 | 1.54 | 0.25 | 0.54 | -0.75 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 5.08 | 3.64 | -1.44 | 3.89 | -1.19 | 5.07 | -0.01 | 4.76 | 3.66 | -1.1 | 3.7 | -1.06 | 4.88 | 0.12 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.85 | 2.68 | 0.83 | 3.01 | 1.16 | 2.17 | 0.32 | 1.54 | 2.79 | 1.25 | 3.13 | 1.59 | 2.48 | 0.94 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.18 | 4.13 | 1.95 | 4 | 1.82 | 3.55 | 1.37 | 2.27 | 3.79 | 1.52 | 3.88 | 1.61 | 3.52 | 1.25 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 3.54 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 4.64 | 1.1 | 3.51 | 3.64 | 0.13 | 3.79 | 0.28 | 5.09 | 1.58 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.29 | 3.81 | -0.48 | 4.18 | -0.11 | 3.83 | -0.46 | 3.98 | 3.43 | -0.55 | 3.82 | -0.16 | 3.65 | -0.33 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.63 | 4.12 | 0.49 | 4.13 | 0.5 | 4.39 | 0.76 | 3.32 | 4.16 | 0.84 | 4.04 | 0.72 | 3.76 | 0.44 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 2.89 | 4.67 | 1.78 | 4.78 | 1.89 | 4.21 | 1.32 | 4.71 | 4.47 | -0.24 | 5.04 | 0.33 | 5.31 | 0.6 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.77 | 2.91 | -0.86 | 2.92 | -0.85 | 2.42 | -1.35 | 3.77 | 2.92 | -0.85 | 2.92 | -0.85 | 2.42 | -1.35 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.82 | 3.41 | 2.59 | 3.27 | 2.45 | 1.75 | 0.93 | 0 | 3.99 | 3.99 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 2.11 | 2.11 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 2.94 | 4.18 | 1.24 | 4.12 | 1.18 | 4.17 | 1.23 | 2.43 | 4.6 | 2.17 | 4.52 | 2.09 | 4.01 | 1.58 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.65 | 3.3 | 1.65 | 3.35 | 1.7 | 2.65 | 1 | 1.64 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 2.83 | 1.19 | 2.69 | 1.05 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | ||||||||||||||
| Trevor May | MIN | 4.45 | 3.48 | -0.97 | 3.53 | -0.92 | 2.8 | -1.65 | 4.7 | 3.12 | -1.58 | 3.29 | -1.41 | 2.92 | -1.78 |
Aaron Sanchez has just a 62.7 LOB% this season, 10 points below his career average. He now has a 63% strand rate since the start of last season now, spanning exactly 200 innings, which is still not a large enough sample and happens occasionally, but is a bit strange. He’s allowed a HR in each of his last four starts and has a career high 14.8 HR/FB now. I don’t expect that to continue with an 8.0% career rate, but keep in mind that even his ERA estimators are league average at best, though he does have a career 3.81 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA. That accounts for a lot of early career struggles though. He’s been much better since 2011.
Carlos Frias – Over the last month, he’s had a BABIP below .316 in just one of four starts with a cumulative 64.3 LOB%. His 3.0 K-BB% is sad, but we’ve already spoken about expecting more there. He doesn’t have good BABIP indicators (chart below) and does have a 24.1 LD% over that span, but just a 25.7 Hard% and 2.9 GB/FB, suggesting something better in store than his current ERA. He might not be quite a league average pitcher, but can be made to look like one in the right environment, such as LA.
Chris Heston has a 16.7 HR/FB and 63.7 LOB% over the last month, but three of his four HRs allowed came in one start in Colorado. Interestingly, his BABIP has was lower than his season rate and right in the normal range at .296, while he may even profile for a stronger BABIP with a decent defense and 16.7 IFFB.
Corey Kluber has a .330 BABIP over 535 career innings. Part of that is because his defense is terrible, but part of it is that he carries a higher than league average LD% and doesn’t excel at contact management. It’s not that he’s necessarily bad at these things, but combine not really being good with the defense and this is where you end up. The good news is that there should be some improvement there that will help push his ERA down towards three. This is the first time I’ve really looked at his Z-Contact% though and I expected it to be lower for some reason. If that’s not elite, he must have a huge chase rate. Sure enough, his 38.6 O-Swing% leads the majors.
Dallas Keuchel is having an amazing season. Not only does he have a league average strikeout rate with the 2nd best GB rate in the majors, but his -7.7 Hard-Soft% leads the league. All the weak ground balls have led to a .230 BABIP. He’s one of the few ground ball pitchers with a league average IFFB% as well, but he allows so few fly balls (15.2%) that it hardly seems to matter. The Astros have been good at limiting hits on balls in play, so all this together means he should be able to keep his BABIP in a below league average range, but not .230.
Eduardo Rodriguez – I don’t think anyone expects him to sustain a .118 BABIP and perfect strand rate.
Matt Shoemaker has a 17.8 HR/FB and that’s basically the entirely of the issue. His K% is right on par with last season. He’s allowed multiple HRs in five of 10 starts, but none in his last two starts, so that’s a step in the right direction.
Noah Syndergaard – If we adjust for K%, the estimators probably jump over three, but there were a lot of hits in SD in his last start that were the result of the bat being stuck out on good pitches and finding outfield grass. That led to an .818 BABIP and totally destroyed an otherwise normal mark. Likewise, he now finds himself with a 64.3 LOB%.
Sonny Gray – Does do an excellent job avoiding hard contact as we’ve mentioned above and gets a lot of pops as one should in Oakland, but the 13.0 LD% will probably regress closer to his 19% mark of the previous two seasons. The indicators still qualify for a strong BABIP though and maybe give him some potential to beat his estimators despite an 83.3 LOB% and 4.3 HR/FB that are expecting regression as well.
Trevor May has some solid indicators for a decent BABIP, but a .329 mark. We’ve talked about this before and it was actually .346 before his last start, so maybe we were right. After a rough start to the season, he’s been below .300 in four of his last six starts. His 65.8 LOB% and 6.0 HR/FB will both probably increase a bit as well, but the 17.3 K-BB% leaves a lot of room for growth (or reduction, in terms of ERA).
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.304 | 0.253 | -0.051 | 16.3% | 87.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.280 | 0.292 | 0.012 | 12.5% | 84.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.278 | 0.255 | -0.023 | 10.7% | 83.3% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 0.294 | 0.340 | 0.046 | 6.9% | 93.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.322 | 0.343 | 0.021 | 3.0% | 88.3% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.283 | 0.322 | 0.039 | 16.7% | 88.1% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.269 | 0.214 | -0.055 | 15.6% | 85.5% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.318 | 0.357 | 0.039 | 9.4% | 85.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.282 | 0.230 | -0.052 | 10.8% | 88.7% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.301 | 0.241 | -0.06 | 13.7% | 92.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.292 | 0.118 | -0.174 | 9.1% | 87.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.305 | 0.250 | -0.055 | 7.3% | 82.6% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.309 | 0.304 | -0.005 | 12.2% | 81.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.294 | 0.325 | 0.031 | 5.1% | 86.5% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.310 | 0.337 | 0.027 | 0.0% | 82.4% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.281 | 0.290 | 0.009 | 9.8% | 92.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.301 | 0.211 | -0.09 | 13.3% | 85.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.273 | 0.268 | -0.005 | 9.6% | 89.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.319 | 0.273 | -0.046 | 11.8% | 79.9% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.295 | 0.236 | -0.059 | 14.5% | 85.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.284 | 0.234 | -0.05 | 10.3% | 86.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.319 | 0.027 | 8.8% | 88.1% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.270 | 0.227 | -0.043 | 6.3% | 87.8% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.013 | 12.3% | 90.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.290 | 0.349 | 0.059 | 17.2% | 89.4% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.304 | 0.324 | 0.02 | 0.0% | 88.6% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 0.280 | 0.286 | 0.006 | 16.7% | 85.0% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.288 | 0.237 | -0.051 | 14.5% | 86.2% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.306 | ||||
| Trevor May | MIN | 0.298 | 0.329 | 0.031 | 13.4% | 84.6% |
Francisco Liriano – Despite all of their shifting, the Pirates haven’t been able to really suppress BABIP at all this year, yet he’s having his best BABIP ever. Liriano keeps the ball on the ground and has just a 1.9 Hard-Soft%, which helps greatly, but he also has a 23.8 LD%. An elite 82.6 Z-Contact% is in his favor though.
Jon Lester has a career .302 BABIP, but never anything higher than .313. He has a career high 23.5 LD% and no otherwise strong tendencies towards a lower BABIP, but a highly variable LD rate moving closer to his career 19.5% rate should move his BABIP closer to his career rate.
Masahiro Tanaka – Small sample size and we know that even with solid indicators and a 16.7 LD% so far, .211 is completely unsustainable.
Max Scherzer has some great indicators in the BABIP chart above, but the more concerning thing is that the Nationals failure to turn batted balls into outs. That’s more of a problem for their other pitchers than him, but I bet he thought his situation was improving upon leaving Detroit.
Miguel Gonzalez generates a lot of fly balls and weak contact. That’s a strong recipe for a lower BABIP and, in fact, he has a .261 career rate in just over 500 innings. He likely has about 25 points of regression in him, but he’s not too far off.
Nate Karns – There is nothing in his profile, outside his team’s defense, that suggests that a low BABIP is sustainable. He has an impressive 16.0 LD% that seems like a fluke with a 33.9 Hard%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Anibal Sanchez – Whatever else is going on, he usually generates some strikeouts and has the best matchup to do so again. The Cubs strike out in a quarter of their plate appearances. His price hasn’t dropped as far as you’d like and hope with that ERA though, so the potential value here isn’t as big as you might expect.
Carlos Frias has shown some signs that he can still be useful and is potentially under-valued on the bottom of the board in good spots. This happens to be one. He’s not much more than the minimum on most sites and makes for a solid dumpster diving play tonight.
Chris Heston – At a slightly higher price than Frias in some places, but with much the same idea, he’s shown solid peripherals and is in a favorable spot tonight. The underlying numbers have been better than the results recently.
Corey Kluber should probably be the guy you’re paying up for, coming in cheaper than Scherzer everywhere and in a much better spot. He’s the top overall pitcher tonight and likely serves as one of the top values as well.
Dallas Keuchel is in that price tier just behind the top guys today, but has the top matchup tonight. He’s impressively been missing more bats lately and when contact is made, it’s generally pounded into the ground.
Eduardo Rodriguez offers strong upside at a mid-range price against a team that likes to chase. The downside here is that they have some power in a tough park.
Francisco Liriano – Behind Kluber, Liriano probably has one of the highest strikeout upsides tonight, but with the best park and matchup left. At a slightly cheaper price, his overall value (points per $$$) has the potential to approach Kluber’s tonight.
Jon Lester – comes a bit less expensive than the top or even 2nd tier guys tonight and one reason may be that Detroit leans RH heavy, but they are beatable and he’s a good pitcher. He may even be a contrarian option tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka – I’m not sure I like him as much as the numbers do because of a high K rate in short sample sizes this year. He does have a better matchup than one would think against Washington, but the high price tag and HR potential might persuade you to look elsewhere.
Matt Shoemaker is in a decent spot at a reasonable price on most sites with solid peripherals. He has the same K% as last year. If he can keep the ball in the park, which he should be able to do here, he should be able to generate some value beyond his price tag.
Max Scherzer – While I think he’ll be good overall, it’s a tough spot going in to face a hot Yankee offense in that park with the highest cost of the night. He’s likely priced in line with his expected outcome tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz might be a contrarian option with an above average K rate at an affordable price. He’s shown some ability with Atlanta and has a solid matchup in a good park tonight.
Noah Syndergaard may be better suited for some of the smaller sites where his price tag is still more mid-range. He has his best swing and miss stuff in his last start, but ran into a BABIP brick wall. The Giants have a tough offense, but the park adjustment is in his favor.
Sonny Gray – Similar to Scherzer, he should be good, but doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts, so he’s potentially priced not too much lower than his expected value. He’s a fine option for double ups where players are looking for stability though.
Trevor May sees some of his strikeout upside likely disappear against Kansas City tonight, but not all of his value I don’t think. He’s still probably better than his ERA and price tag and it’s not like the Royals hit the ball hard.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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