Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, September 22nd
I actually made a lineup last night with Randy Wolf and John Lamb just because a Wolf/Lamb lineup sounded cool. As luck would have it, they put up 37.65 points on DraftKings and it ended up being my highest scoring lineup of the night (134.65 points) mainly because I could afford just about any hitter I wanted. Due to this, I have now realized the real key to daily fantasy baseball (or all DFS sports for that matter) is picking funny or cool names in your lineups and as such, we will no longer be talking about advanced pitching stats here. We’ll be talking about funny names. We will dissect the origins of each pitcher’s name (first and last) and then lastly, make recommendations based on how two names sound together in a lineup. That’s about as good a method as any sometimes. Today’s combination: Moore/Wood.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -4.8 | 4.48 | 6.07 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 4.56 | 4.26 | FLA | 83 | 82 | 105 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 21.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.9 | 3.7 | 6.17 | 1.51 | 0.89 | 3.18 | 3.29 | ARI | 96 | 99 | 92 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 21.4% | 14.4% | 6.4% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 4.5 | 4.03 | 5.8 | 2.15 | 0.84 | 4.1 | 3.83 | SDG | 100 | 92 | 121 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 20.4% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -4.3 | 4.26 | 5.6 | 1.84 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 5.35 | PIT | 94 | 93 | 76 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 21.0% | 12.9% | 9.2% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.4 | 4.69 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 5.93 | 2.25 | CHW | 90 | 77 | 111 | 21.5% | 7.4% | 17.0% | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.1 | 3.29 | 5.9 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 3.37 | 4.69 | MIN | 103 | 88 | 112 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 20.3% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.8 | 3.95 | 6.3 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 3.78 | 4.52 | CLE | 89 | 99 | 127 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 22.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.4 | 3.61 | 5.81 | 1.6 | 1.03 | 3.33 | 2.94 | BAL | 87 | 83 | 66 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.4 | 4.45 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 1.01 | 4.64 | 5.87 | HOU | 111 | 103 | 114 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.5% | 10.0% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | -1 | 4.61 | 5.4 | 0.68 | 1.07 | 4.87 | 5 | TAM | 99 | 110 | 110 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 18.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -3.9 | 3.1 | 6.42 | 1.71 | 1.04 | 3.12 | 2.35 | KAN | 108 | 104 | 114 | 21.1% | 5.1% | 19.9% | 13.2% | 11.4% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -2.1 | 3.96 | 5.7 | 1.09 | 1.4 | 4.01 | 2.17 | COL | 93 | 59 | 46 | 23.9% | 6.5% | 23.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.3 | 2.93 | 6.59 | 2.04 | 1.05 | 2.9 | 2.92 | MIL | 87 | 91 | 93 | 23.2% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 11.7% | 7.2% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 7.7 | 4.68 | 6.04 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 4.88 | 4.41 | SEA | 98 | 99 | 126 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 21.3% | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| John Lackey | STL | -0.8 | 3.82 | 6.52 | 1.32 | 0.98 | 3.43 | 2.86 | CIN | 87 | 92 | 116 | 22.6% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -6.3 | 3.59 | 6.33 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 3.6 | 4.11 | DET | 104 | 119 | 96 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 23.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 1.9 | 4.96 | 4.23 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 5.63 | 6.14 | STL | 98 | 100 | 98 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 21.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 1.6 | 3.74 | 5.64 | 1.44 | 1.01 | 3.4 | 5.48 | ANA | 88 | 97 | 87 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 1.6 | 3.76 | 6.5 | 1.29 | 0.88 | 4.39 | 4.03 | ATL | 79 | 84 | 63 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 19.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -5.6 | 3.84 | 5.39 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 3.28 | 3.59 | TOR | 123 | 112 | 113 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 23.7% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.7 | 4.24 | 6. | 0.63 | 1.05 | 4.54 | 5.41 | NYY | 102 | 101 | 76 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 12.1% | 11.2% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5 | 4.08 | 5.95 | 2.48 | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.62 | OAK | 100 | 96 | 119 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 20.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 6.2 | 5.01 | 4.86 | 0.89 | 1.07 | 5.9 | 3.5 | BOS | 113 | 104 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 20.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -0.7 | 5.14 | 5.26 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 5.1 | 4.99 | NYM | 100 | 98 | 73 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 23.4% | 11.9% | 13.0% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.27 | 1.1 | 0.89 | 4.16 | 5.39 | LOS | 112 | 108 | 84 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 21.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% |
| Sean Nolin | OAK | -6.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 6.43 | 4.59 | TEX | 86 | 90 | 133 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 18.7% | 12.7% | 11.5% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.6 | 4.41 | 5.97 | 1.15 | 1.01 | 3.96 | 3.91 | PHI | 83 | 82 | 26 | 23.0% | 7.7% | 19.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | -5.1 | 4.61 | 5. | 1.21 | 1.05 | 3.92 | 3.16 | CHC | 99 | 99 | 111 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 20.7% | 10.8% | 7.4% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -6.9 | 3.29 | 6.14 | 2.86 | 0.84 | 2.94 | 2.58 | SFO | 100 | 108 | 99 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 20.4% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.5 | 4.12 | 5.62 | 1.46 | 1.03 | 4.18 | 3.43 | WAS | 103 | 98 | 140 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 21.4% | 13.7% | 9.4% |
Alex Wood got blasted in between 15 innings of shutout ball in two of his last three starts. One issue is that his most recent performance (eight shutout innings of one-hit ball with five strikeouts) was against the Rockies at home. Another issue is that Arizona was the team that blasted him, but on the road. Looking at his game logs makes it very difficult to project what you’re going to get from start to start, but for the season it’s a poor 9.9 K-BB% and 13.2 Hard-Soft%, but he’s done a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. He’s generally pitched better at home (18.5 K-BB% since last season) and that’s held true even in just three Dodger home starts (14.1 K-BB%). The Diamondbacks are about an average offense with a slightly elevated K%. They are a favorable matchup with a negative park adjustment.
Chris Heston has struck out 13 of his last 43 batters but has struggled with control and run prevention in the 2nd half at times. With a drop in his K-BB to 10.5% for the season now, he profiles as a slightly below average pitcher but often seems to find himself in a good spot. A lot of times that’s because of his home park, but tonight it’s because he’s facing a below average offense in another great park. The Padres have a 15.6 K-BB% at home and a 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP. They have been hitting the ball well over the last week (17.6 HR/FB, 20.4 Hard-Soft%), but that includes a trip to Colorado. They are a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Danny Salazar has faced some tough offenses over the last month, mixing in some struggles with some great outings. A 19.5 K-BB% is just outside the top 10 and he owns a near matching mark on the road since last season. The Twins have been decent at home and have hit the ball well over the last week, but struggled vs RHP 14.1 K-BB%. They’re a neutral matchup after an upward bump for run environment.
Gio Gonzalez has double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts with no more than two ERs allowed in any of them. He even has a 60.5 GB% over that span after allowing more fly balls recently. True, it’s been just the Phillies, Marlins, and Braves, but you take what you can get. He has an average 13.2 K-BB% on the season, but a 15.4 K-BB% and 4.3 HR/FB at home since last season. The Orioles are a well below average offense both on the road (17.2 K-BB%) and vs LHP (17.5 K-BB%), as well as being cold over the last week (16.2 K-BB%). They also lose their DH tonight in an NL park. All of this makes them a great park adjusted matchup.
Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed two ERs or less with at least six strikeouts in four of his last six starts with a season-high nine strikeouts his last time out. He looked to be on the decline for a while but has been pitching well lately. His 16.6 K-BB% is right at his career average with a 17.0 K-BB% on the road since last season. He has increased his strikeout rate over the last month and now has an above average rate for the season or the first time this year. He does have a 17.0 HR/FB that’s not too far about his 14.0 career HR/FB. You would think a trip to Kansas City might be helpful in that regard, but you’d think Safeco would be too. The Royals are a difficult, very low strikeout, below average power lineup, but haven’t played that way over the last week (16.1 K-BB%, 16.4 HR/FB, 18.1 Hard-Soft%). They are a tough park adjusted matchup.
J.A. Happ is not going to immediately be discarded due to Coors Field tonight. He has struck out 26 of his last 73 batters and has been incredible for the Pirates, although about league average for the season (which is still a major improvement). After allowing four runs in his first start since the trade, he’s gone seven straight with two ERs or fewer in which he has a 22.7 K-BB% that would be among the league leaders over a full season. The Rockies are a below average offense at home and incredibly abysmal vs LHP (15.6 K-BB%, 7.7 HR/FB) while leaning heavily left-handed in their lineup. They’ve been terrible over the last week (26.4 K%, 6.3 HR/FB) and actually project as a below average offense even after an enormous park adjustment in their favor.
Jake Arrieta is now amazingly in a conversation for a Cy Young award that was thought to be locked up in Los Angeles (although to which Dodger pitcher can be questioned). The most interesting thing I immediately notice above is three ERA estimators almost exactly the same just below three over the last two rolling years, at home since last season, and over the last two weeks. He has a 20 point gap between his K and BB rates both this season and in his Cubs career with a 6.5 HR/FB. He also has just a 0.3 Hard-Soft% this season and 1.4% mark over the last two rolling years, which is lowest on the board today among non-rookies. He has a good matchup against a below average offense that strikes out a bit above average. The Brewers do have a 21.9 HR/FB over the last week, but remain a favorable matchup even after an upward park adjustment, although the Wrigley Field adjustment seems to be fluent according to weather sometimes and more likely to be in a pitcher’s favor as it cools in September.
John Lackey is probably not as good as his ERA, as his estimators will tell you, but is more likely to remain successful in a home park that suppresses power (15.9 K-BB% and 6.2 HR/FB at home since last season, mostly in St. Louis). He has been pitching well lately, with an increase in strikeout rate (24.3% over the last month and at least eight Ks in three of his last four) that leaves him with an average 12.9 K-BB% on the season. The Reds are a below average offense both on the road and vs RHP. They do have an 18.8 HR/FB over the last week, but St Louis is not very friendly to power hitters and they remain a favorable park adjusted opponent in this spot.
Logan Verrett retired 14 of 18 Marlins in his 2nd start of the season last week before being removed after just 63 pitches. He’s barely at 100 pitches for the season, so he doesn’t look to be on any kind of cap, but perhaps he hadn’t been stretched out with two weeks since he’d last pitched. I’d assume the same restrictions wouldn’t be in place, but can’t be sure. Even if it is, he has the top park adjusted matchup of the day. The Braves may not strike out much vs RHP (17.8%), but don’t hit the ball hard either (7.3 HR/FB, 4.7 Hard-Soft%). They haven’t hit a HR (0.0 HR/FB, 2.1 Hard-Soft%) in over a week.
Tom Koehler has not been a good pitcher this season with just an 8.3 K-BB% and an ERA well below his estimators. He also has at least four walks and exactly four strikeouts each four times in his last six starts. He does, however, have a more league average 12.0 K-BB% and 6.7 HR/FB at home since last season and you snap league average up pretty quickly against the Phillies. They had a nice little run of not as terrible for about a month after the All-Star break, but are right back to terrible and are close to the Braves for top park adjusted matchup tonight. They have a 32.5 K% and -7.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week that makes the Rockies look competitive. They are tied with the offense they are facing for worst vs RHP in the majors.
Tyson Ross is the most unique of the three pitchers with a GB rate above 60%. First, he is the only RHP and he has the highest K% (25.1) while generating a substantial amount of weak contact (3.3 Hard-Soft%) along with the rest of them. He also has a fairly large platoon split based almost entirely on not being able to find the plate vs LHBs. Overall, though, he has a 25.9 K% and 6.9 HR/FB at home since last season. Incredibly, three of his four HRs at home, and his first since April came in his last home start vs Colorado of all teams. (#ThingsYouCanNeverPredict) The Giants are a tough offense vs RHP and average on the road, but park adjust into a favorable matchup tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Luis Severino (.293 BABIP – 85.0 LOB% – 15.4 HR/FB) – I could just say Toronto too. He has just a 0.8 Hard-Soft% mostly because he would lead the majors in Medium contact (45.1%) if he had the innings to qualify, which might explain the high HR rate with such a narrow gap between hard and soft contact.
Marco Estrada (.221 BABIP – 79.1 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) – The BABIP is a given, but the HR rate is interesting because he has a previous 11.2 HR/FB for his career in Milwaukee. His 52.1% fly ball rate is 2nd in the majors to the next guy on this list.
Hector Santiago (.257 BABIP – 81.1 LOB% – 9.8 HR/FB) – As you can see from the ERA chart below, regression has nearly broken his face really since the All-Star break, but he still has a bit to go. He had an 88.9 LOB% with a .244 BABIP in the 1st half, but a 70.1 LOB% with a .280 BABIP in the 2nd half of the season. Regression wins again! I’m sorry if you really thought he was a true talent sub-three ERA pitcher.
Sean Nolin (255 BABIP – 84.2 LOB% – 9.1 HR/FB) – It’s only been three starts, so there’s plenty of time to straighten these things out, but he has just a 2.8 K-BB% so far as well.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Cravy hasn’t started a game or pitched more than two innings in just over a month. Doing a quick twitter search reveals that the Brewers are planning to heavily use the bullpen here and don’t even expect five innings out of him. The Cubs do have a 23.9 K% at home and vs RHP though, so might he be able to generate enough fantasy points for the minimum cost while he’s in there? I’m unlikely to attempt to find out. Although, since you could just look at the results, you don’t necessarily have to use him to find out…..if that wasn’t clear.
Ubaldo Jimenez is very erratic. One can never tell what you’re going to get from him. Sometimes it’s walks, sometimes it’s strikeouts, sometimes it’s HRs, sometimes it’s a combination of those things and sometimes he’s even decent, but I don’t want to pay to find out which version we’ll get as he faces a hot offense.
Lance McCullers is one of a few pitchers in this section that some people may disagree with. His skill set over the last month has just been too mediocre for his high cost. He has just a 13.4 K-BB% with an 18.1 Hard-Soft% since his recall on August 23rd. He does have a favorable matchup and won’t necessarily be bad, but just isn’t one of the most attractive options for me tonight.
Martin Perez might not be as bad as his ERA suggests, but never misses bats and faces a team that doesn’t swing and miss either. There’s absolutely no upside here.
Ervin Santana has been pitching better recently but has struggled with control occasionally (four walks in his last start) and Cleveland has great plate discipline (8.9 BB% vs RHP) and may make him work with little reward.
Jose Quintana is not a decent pitcher, but the Tigers maul LHP. They’re not far behind the Blue Jays for the top offense vs lefties.
Aaron Harang – It’s a great matchup, but a terrible pitcher at this point.
Daniel Norris has struck out 10 of his last 31 batters and faces one of the worst offenses vs LHP, so why is he way down here? He’s lasted less than five innings in five of his 10 starts and has only gone above 85 pitches once in his last six starts. A quick google search provided news that he was on a 50 pitch cap returning from the DL in his last count and will likely be capped again (though possibly not that low) today.
Robbie Ray has nearly closed the gap between his ERA and estimators around four. He’s walked at least three without completing six innings in eight of his last 11 starts.
Jeremy Guthrie gets his first start in over a month.
Henry Owens has struck out four or fewer in five of his last seven starts and faces one of the better offenses vs LHP.
Matt Moore threw seven two-hit innings with nine strikeouts and no walks in his last start and has an impressive SwStr%, but had failed to go more than five innings or strike out more than four in any of his previous eight starts this season and is in a tough environment tonight.
Matthew Wisler
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 16.9% | 7.9% | Road | 15.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.0% | 7.1% | Home | 25.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 2.5% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 18.6% | 8.3% | Road | 17.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 14.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 14.6% | 6.4% | Home | 15.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 7.3% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 17.8% | 9.3% | Home | 13.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 26.2% | 7.1% | Road | 26.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 20.2% | 7.9% | Home | 21.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 11.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.5% | 8.6% | Home | 23.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 10.2% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.2% | 9.2% | Road | 19.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 19.3% | 9.1% | Home | 20.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 21.8% | 3.6% | Road | 22.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 2.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.8% | 7.0% | Road | 19.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 4.1% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 26.3% | 6.3% | Home | 26.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 13.3% | 6.1% | Home | 11.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 17.4% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.4% | 5.9% | Home | 21.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 8.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 20.9% | 5.7% | Road | 19.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 16.9% | 11.1% | Road | 12.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 23.9% | 8.7% | Home | 25.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 10.0% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 20.0% | 6.9% | Home | 14.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 24.2% | 9.7% | Road | 23.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 9.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 19.6% | 7.4% | Home | 19.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 15.6% | 8.2% | Road | 13.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 15.7% | 10.2% | Road | 10.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 14.5% | 9.1% | Road | 14.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 9.0% | Road | 20.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Sean Nolin | Athletics | 13.3% | 10.7% | Home | 3.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.9% | 8.9% | Home | 20.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.9% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 18.0% | 10.3% | Road | 22.1% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.5% | 9.5% | Home | 25.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 21.7% | 10.6% | Road | 21.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 18.9% | 6.7% | RH | 19.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 4.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.2% | 7.6% | LH | 21.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.7% |
| Padres | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | RH | 21.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.7% | 7.0% | LH | 22.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.8% | 6.0% | LH | 20.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Home | 19.2% | 7.2% | RH | 21.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.3% | RH | 18.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.5% | LH | 23.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 8.5% | LH | 21.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.2% |
| Rays | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | LH | 22.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.0% |
| Royals | Home | 14.0% | 6.6% | RH | 15.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.3% | 6.9% | LH | 22.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.1% | 6.1% | RH | 20.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.8% | 7.5% | RH | 21.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.1% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.9% | 7.5% | LH | 21.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.5% |
| Angels | Road | 18.8% | 7.0% | RH | 19.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.6% |
| Braves | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | RH | 17.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.2% | 9.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.2% | 8.8% | RH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.6% | 7.4% | LH | 17.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.6% | LH | 19.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.7% |
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.5% | RH | 19.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.3% | 8.4% | LH | 21.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.7% | 7.4% | LH | 22.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.2% | 5.9% | RH | 20.7% | 6.0% | L7Days | 32.5% | 6.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 10.0% | RH | 23.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.9% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Road | 18.8% | 6.9% | RH | 18.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.8% | 9.4% | RH | 21.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 12.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | Road | 21.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | Home | 21.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | Road | 23.1% | 16.4% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 21.1% | 14.3% | 11.1% | Home | 21.0% | 10.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 17.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | Home | 17.3% | 8.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 20.7% | 12.4% | 8.7% | Road | 20.0% | 13.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 24.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | Home | 23.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 19.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | Home | 21.1% | 4.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | Road | 19.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 16.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | Home | 18.8% | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.1% | 14.5% | 8.2% | Road | 21.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | Road | 22.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.1% | 6.3% | 10.4% | Home | 20.0% | 6.5% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 22.0% | 10.8% | 7.8% | Home | 22.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 21.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | Home | 22.8% | 6.2% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | Road | 22.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 23.3% | 10.4% | 18.8% | Road | 24.2% | 4.3% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 20.9% | 6.3% | 10.4% | Home | 19.4% | 4.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 15.5% | 10.5% | 5.3% | Home | 12.8% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 23.0% | 15.4% | 17.9% | Road | 32.8% | 6.7% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 16.6% | 10.4% | 12.4% | Home | 16.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 13.6% | 22.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 20.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | Road | 17.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 20.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | Road | 26.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 19.0% | 9.5% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 25.6% | 11.8% | 12.6% | Road | 30.3% | 18.2% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.5% | 15.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 8.4% | 5.8% | Road | 21.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Sean Nolin | Athletics | 18.2% | 13.0% | 13.0% | Home | 21.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | Home | 19.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 22.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | Road | 23.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | Home | 17.9% | 6.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 37.5% | 50.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | Road | 22.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Home | 19.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 13.8% | 5.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 11.7% | 9.1% | LH | 19.9% | 12.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Padres | Home | 21.1% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 19.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 17.6% | 3.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | LH | 22.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | LH | 22.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 12.6% | 11.1% | RH | 20.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | RH | 21.3% | 9.8% | 12.6% | L7Days | 15.1% | 9.6% | 16.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% | LH | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 17.6% | 9.8% | LH | 19.7% | 13.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 12.1% | 6.1% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | LH | 20.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.3% | 11.7% |
| Royals | Home | 20.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 16.4% | 13.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 23.0% | 13.5% | 8.7% | LH | 22.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | RH | 21.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 21.9% | 3.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 14.0% | 7.2% | RH | 20.2% | 12.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | LH | 24.1% | 12.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 4.6% | 9.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | RH | 22.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 17.4% | 4.3% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | RH | 21.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 0.0% | 17.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.8% | 15.3% | 14.3% | RH | 19.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.0% | 12.4% | 7.7% | RH | 20.8% | 14.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.5% | 7.5% | 11.0% | LH | 19.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 16.7% | 12.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 11.7% | 8.7% | LH | 19.8% | 12.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 11.8% | 12.1% | RH | 22.0% | 11.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.3% | 13.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.0% | 13.0% | 9.0% | LH | 21.9% | 11.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% | LH | 18.8% | 12.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.1% | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 13.8% | 10.2% | RH | 20.3% | 13.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Giants | Road | 22.2% | 11.5% | 6.3% | RH | 21.4% | 10.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 13.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.8% | 13.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 20.3% | 5.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.99 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 2.44 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.17 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 1.88 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.08 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.09 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 14.8% | 8.4% | 1.76 | 12.7% | 5.7% | 2.23 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 18.5% | 9.6% | 1.93 | 33.3% | 8.5% | 3.92 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 26.5% | 11.7% | 2.26 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.9% | 9.4% | 1.90 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 2.66 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 | 30.0% | 13.3% | 2.26 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.51 | 14.6% | 7.8% | 1.87 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 19.3% | 11.1% | 1.74 | 17.1% | 11.4% | 1.50 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 21.2% | 10.8% | 1.96 | 22.6% | 12.2% | 1.85 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 20.2% | 8.0% | 2.53 | 28.6% | 10.5% | 2.72 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.3% | 10.6% | 2.48 | 27.9% | 12.1% | 2.31 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 12.3% | 6.4% | 1.92 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 2.17 |
| John Lackey | STL | 19.0% | 9.4% | 2.02 | 24.3% | 11.8% | 2.06 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 20.5% | 9.3% | 2.20 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.77 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 16.9% | 8.5% | 1.99 | 15.3% | 9.0% | 1.70 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.46 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.19 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 20.0% | 11.1% | 1.80 | 25.5% | 10.8% | 2.36 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 24.2% | 9.7% | 2.49 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 2.20 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 18.1% | 9.8% | 1.85 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 1.75 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.93 | 13.3% | 7.4% | 1.80 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 16.0% | 10.0% | 1.60 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 1.84 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 14.5% | 8.1% | 1.79 | 14.8% | 9.7% | 1.53 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 21.3% | 8.8% | 2.42 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 2.06 |
| Sean Nolin | OAK | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.27 | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.27 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.42 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 2.52 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 18.0% | 7.0% | 2.57 | 30.3% | 8.6% | 3.52 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.1% | 12.1% | 2.07 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 2.36 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.54 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.34 |
J.A. Happ – His strikeout rate both on the season and especially over the last month are on the borderline of being questionable. We’ve mentioned his excellent catcher framing from Seattle and even more so Pittsburgh this year, which may make the difference here, but it should also be important to note a significant increase in SwStr% over the last month and a mark above 12% in each of his last two starts. He had a 16.0 SwStr% against a very highly prone Cubs lineup in his last start.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 5.04 | 4.82 | -0.22 | 4.98 | -0.06 | 4.73 | -0.31 | 6.18 | 5.29 | -0.89 | 5.6 | -0.58 | 6.07 | -0.11 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.63 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 3.98 | 0.35 | 3.69 | 0.06 | 2.86 | 4 | 1.14 | 3.82 | 0.96 | 4.1 | 1.24 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.61 | 4.01 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 0.29 | 3.92 | 0.31 | 5.68 | 4.08 | -1.6 | 3.99 | -1.69 | 5.94 | 0.26 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 5.11 | 4.23 | -0.88 | 4.06 | -1.05 | 4.49 | -0.62 | 9 | 4.87 | -4.13 | 4.79 | -4.21 | 5.65 | -3.35 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.28 | 4.53 | 0.25 | 4.83 | 0.55 | 4.91 | 0.63 | 2.45 | 2.25 | -0.2 | 2.98 | 0.53 | 4.51 | 2.06 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.48 | 3.31 | -0.17 | 3.38 | -0.1 | 3.72 | 0.24 | 5.02 | 3.74 | -1.28 | 3.71 | -1.31 | 4.33 | -0.69 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.55 | 4.47 | -0.08 | 4.51 | -0.04 | 4.57 | 0.02 | 2.84 | 3.51 | 0.67 | 3.55 | 0.71 | 2.61 | -0.23 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.83 | 3.77 | -0.06 | 3.6 | -0.23 | 3.12 | -0.71 | 3.1 | 3.42 | 0.32 | 3.38 | 0.28 | 2.91 | -0.19 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.47 | 4.43 | 0.96 | 4.89 | 1.42 | 4.59 | 1.12 | 7.4 | 6.43 | -0.97 | 6.89 | -0.51 | 7.74 | 0.34 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 4.33 | 4.61 | 0.28 | 5 | 0.67 | 4.59 | 0.26 | 4.12 | 5.19 | 1.07 | 5.78 | 1.66 | 4.77 | 0.65 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.9 | 3.46 | -0.44 | 3.39 | -0.51 | 4.07 | 0.17 | 4.34 | 3.55 | -0.79 | 3.47 | -0.87 | 3.73 | -0.61 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 3.84 | 3.94 | 0.1 | 3.82 | -0.02 | 3.53 | -0.31 | 1.48 | 2.77 | 1.29 | 2.76 | 1.28 | 1.73 | 0.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.96 | 2.91 | 0.95 | 2.75 | 0.79 | 2.51 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 2.31 | 1.85 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.86 | 1.4 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.55 | 5.09 | -0.46 | 5.17 | -0.38 | 5.38 | -0.17 | 4.7 | 3.7 | -1 | 4.35 | -0.35 | 5.82 | 1.12 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.79 | 4.02 | 1.23 | 3.9 | 1.11 | 3.57 | 0.78 | 1.83 | 3.58 | 1.75 | 3.2 | 1.37 | 3.35 | 1.52 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.45 | 3.64 | 0.19 | 3.54 | 0.09 | 3.15 | -0.3 | 2.67 | 3.34 | 0.67 | 3.17 | 0.5 | 2.72 | 0.05 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 7.09 | 4.96 | -2.13 | 4.92 | -2.17 | 4.77 | -2.32 | 9.95 | 5.35 | -4.6 | 5.4 | -4.55 | 5.51 | -4.44 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.18 | 3.74 | 0.56 | 3.67 | 0.49 | 3.08 | -0.1 | 3.19 | 4.03 | 0.84 | 3.93 | 0.74 | 3.24 | 0.05 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 2.89 | 3.76 | 0.87 | 3.98 | 1.09 | 3.87 | 0.98 | 3 | 3.09 | 0.09 | 3.45 | 0.45 | 4.48 | 1.48 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.12 | 3.84 | 0.72 | 3.71 | 0.59 | 4.18 | 1.06 | 3.08 | 4.26 | 1.18 | 4.09 | 1.01 | 4.67 | 1.59 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.14 | 4.67 | 1.53 | 4.96 | 1.82 | 4.42 | 1.28 | 2.95 | 5.13 | 2.18 | 5.34 | 2.39 | 5.68 | 2.73 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.96 | 4.16 | -0.8 | 4.11 | -0.85 | 3.67 | -1.29 | 4.44 | 4.27 | -0.17 | 4.07 | -0.37 | 4.58 | 0.14 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 7.06 | 4.84 | -2.22 | 5.3 | -1.76 | 5.45 | -1.61 | 4.32 | 3.91 | -0.41 | 4.46 | 0.14 | 5.19 | 0.87 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 5.63 | 5.14 | -0.49 | 5.25 | -0.38 | 5.32 | -0.31 | 8.14 | 5.73 | -2.41 | 6.43 | -1.71 | 7.21 | -0.93 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.72 | 4.18 | 0.46 | 4.19 | 0.47 | 3.64 | -0.08 | 5.01 | 4.67 | -0.34 | 4.59 | -0.42 | 4.82 | -0.19 |
| Sean Nolin | OAK | 3.24 | 5.41 | 2.17 | 5.33 | 2.09 | 4.95 | 1.71 | 3.24 | 5.42 | 2.18 | 5.33 | 2.09 | 4.95 | 1.71 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 4.56 | 0.66 | 4.45 | 0.55 | 3.38 | 4.53 | 1.15 | 4.56 | 1.18 | 4.21 | 0.83 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 6.15 | 4.61 | -1.54 | 4.75 | -1.4 | 4.63 | -1.52 | 5.4 | 2.72 | -2.68 | 3.27 | -2.13 | 1.95 | -3.45 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.18 | 3.41 | 0.23 | 3.21 | 0.03 | 3.02 | -0.16 | 2.51 | 3.16 | 0.65 | 3.3 | 0.79 | 3.36 | 0.85 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.31 | 3.91 | -0.4 | 3.79 | -0.52 | 4.06 | -0.25 | 5.9 | 4.52 | -1.38 | 4.5 | -1.4 | 4.53 | -1.37 |
Chris Heston has allowed five HRs over four starts in the last 30 days. Three of those HRs came in starts in Arizona and Colorado.
Danny Salazar had a four-start stretch starting on 8/17 where he pitched in Boston, New York (Yankees), Toronto, and Detroit consecutively, then came home to face Detroit and Kansas City. You would expect any pitcher to have a rough start or two in that stretch and he did, but he also had three strong starts. He allowed five HRs in those four road starts, though, but just one over the last two at home. His hard contact rate is nearly double his season rate in this stretch and that can be a bit of concern with a pitcher who has had hard contact issues in the past, but you have to take quality of opposition into consideration too.
J.A. Happ – Over the seven stretch start, beginning with his second start as a Pirate, mentioned above he does have a 22.7 K-BB%, but also a 91.2 LOB% and 4.8 HR/FB.
Jake Arrieta has well below average BABIP without any clear positive indicators aside from his ability to induce weak contact, something that hasn’t necessarily always shown to correlate strongly with a low BABIP. It will, however, often mean a good HR rate, which he has (8.2 HR/FB). His strand rate is a bit high (79.1%), but below 80 and nearly reasonable for an elite strikeout pitcher. I think the real takeaway here is that nobody believes he’s a true talent sub-two ERA pitcher, but is still really, really good.
John Lackey has successfully suppressed HRs at home this year (5.9 HR/FB, just six allowed), but has also stranded 86.1% of his runners at home, which is a little too high for expected continuation.
Tom Koehler doesn’t really have anything extreme that must regress in his numbers (BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB), but a well below average 8.3 K-BB%. We can’t even get excited about an increase in K% over the last month because that was a one off where he struck out 10 Brewers. He hasn’t otherwise struck out more than seven in a start this year and even that only twice.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.318 | 0.297 | -0.021 | 12.7% | 90.8% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.297 | 0.316 | 0.019 | 8.8% | 89.2% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.285 | 0.293 | 0.008 | 9.9% | 87.2% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.315 | 0.339 | 0.024 | 10.3% | 87.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 11.8% | 88.0% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.292 | 0.274 | -0.018 | 5.5% | 82.5% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.300 | 0.295 | -0.005 | 14.7% | 87.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.305 | 0.341 | 0.036 | 2.5% | 86.7% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.286 | 0.257 | -0.029 | 11.0% | 85.8% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.306 | 0.286 | -0.02 | 12.3% | 81.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.294 | 0.263 | -0.031 | 8.0% | 90.2% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.303 | 0.317 | 0.014 | 13.0% | 87.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.292 | 0.255 | -0.037 | 8.2% | 87.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.287 | 0.313 | 0.026 | 8.0% | 90.3% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.297 | 0.294 | -0.003 | 11.3% | 88.8% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.312 | 0.334 | 0.022 | 5.8% | 88.7% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.292 | 0.359 | 0.067 | 18.8% | 85.5% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.283 | 0.295 | 0.012 | 10.4% | 89.2% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.286 | 0.208 | -0.078 | 5.3% | 88.4% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.301 | 0.293 | -0.008 | 17.9% | 85.2% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.281 | 0.221 | -0.06 | 11.1% | 82.3% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.295 | 0.335 | 0.04 | 11.1% | 90.9% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.282 | 0.343 | 0.061 | 12.1% | 87.2% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.307 | 0.322 | 0.015 | 12.6% | 88.4% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 5.4% | 87.0% |
| Sean Nolin | OAK | 0.287 | 0.255 | -0.032 | 13.6% | 94.4% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.292 | 0.274 | -0.018 | 7.4% | 90.8% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 0.303 | 0.358 | 0.055 | 7.9% | 88.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.302 | 0.318 | 0.016 | 9.6% | 86.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.312 | 0.016 | 12.4% | 88.8% |
Hisashi Iwakuma has balanced a low BABIP with a high HR rate to keep his ERA not too far from his estimators (especially his FIP). His BABIP chart indicators (IFFB, Z-Contact) are worse than average and slightly worse than his career marks, through which he has a .270 BABIP. At least a slight increase would be expected.
Logan Verrett has just 37.1 major league innings, mostly out of the bullpen.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Logan Verrett (8) – If they let him go more than five innings, which they may, he should provide a solid return for the minimum (or near minimum) price tag on several sites, including DraftKings. He has tonight’s best matchup vs Atlanta at home.
Value Tier Two
Tyson Ross (2) generally excels at home (except for against Colorado for some reason). He keeps the ball on the ground and in the park while striking out a quarter of the batters he faces and not allowing a lot of hard contacts. The Giants are a good offense, but the park should move this in his favor. He has one of the higher salaries tonight but is generally still affordable.
Alex Wood (5t) – The Diamondbacks got to one ground balling lefty last night but trust me, their overall offensive numbers are inflated by their home park. They are still a favorable matchup in a negative run environment and have one of their top offensive options (and cleanup hitter vs RHP) neutralized vs lefties. Wood hasn’t been consistent and does carry some risk, but should be able to give an above average performance more often than not here. Just don’t pitch to Goldschmidt.
Gio Gonzalez (3) – More strikeouts with ground balls now and potentially one of the highest strikeout rates of the day against a strikeout-prone team that’s bad against LH pitching (and on the road) without a DH. The price of baseball has increased here though.
Value Tier Three
Hisashi Iwakuma (4) – I thought he was in decline and won’t necessarily allow a few good starts to completely sway my view, but it’s certainly a strong start and he does have a track record of this kind of performance. He’s been great in recent starts and should do well even against a high contact team, where his biggest strength (control) should play well and his biggest weakness (HRs) shouldn’t be that big of a factor. He hasn’t allowed more than one HR in a start since before the All-Star break.
John Lackey (5t) may not be as good as his ERA, but home Lackey is better than road Lackey and he’s in a good spot at home in a matchup where he should generate around a league average rate of strikeouts.
Tom Koehler is not good, but has been decent at home and has a great matchup for an average price tag.
Jake Arrieta (1) – The only drawback here seems to be the enormous price tag we usually only associate with Kershaw.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
J.A. Happ – Would you ever have thought that he would be an option in Colorado even two months ago? The Rockies are historically bad against LHP and haven’t even been good at home this year.
Danny Salazar (7) has been inconsistent through a rough stretch of blames that most pitchers would struggle with. I expect him to perform well here, but he’s the 2nd most expensive pitcher on the board in most places and Minnesota at home isn’t a cake walk.
Chris Heston looks better where you can get him for an average or better price, which is possible on a few sites, including FanDuel.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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