Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, September 23rd
On the next to last Wednesday of the season, we punt the two day games and are left with 13 night contests featuring a few prominent options, but not really much else. There is just a week and a half left in a season that seems like it started yesterday. For those of you who have profitably waded through enlarged September rosters and are still enjoying DFS baseball 150 games in, congratulations. You are a true warrior, or perhaps the more appropriate term around here is Grinder. I believe there is no DFS season nearly as grinding because there are so many more options to investigate each day with so much variance from day to day. Just making it this far with some sort of bankroll still intact deserves a pat on the back. We’re in the home stretch now.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Editor’s Note: Zack Greinke has been scratched from tonight’s start. A new starter has not yet been named.
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.6 | 4.05 | 5.03 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 4.86 | 3.36 | PHI | 84 | 90 | 55 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 17.5% | 9.8% | 15.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -6.9 | 3.85 | 6.2 | 1.54 | 0.84 | 3.09 | 4.26 | SFO | 100 | 108 | 86 | 21.9% | 8.1% | 24.5% | 10.0% | 4.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 1.6 | 3.85 | 6.38 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 3.62 | 5.36 | ATL | 80 | 85 | 57 | 16.8% | 5.4% | 22.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 1.9 | 3.23 | 5. | 2.76 | 0.98 | 3.71 | 3.02 | STL | 98 | 83 | 96 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 19.0% | 17.0% | 10.6% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -2.1 | 3.82 | 5.94 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3.83 | 4.6 | COL | 92 | 92 | 72 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 23.8% | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.3 | 4.08 | 5.55 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 4.21 | 3.68 | LOS | 110 | 106 | 75 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 9.4% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.5 | 4.38 | 5.83 | 1.11 | 1.03 | 4.55 | 5.15 | WAS | 102 | 97 | 120 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 21.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Christian Bergman | COL | -4.3 | 4.42 | 5.29 | 0.92 | 1.4 | 4.33 | 3.97 | PIT | 95 | 100 | 113 | 16.8% | 5.1% | 21.8% | 11.6% | 8.0% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 5 | 4.32 | 6.1 | 0.77 | 0.93 | 4.48 | 4.38 | OAK | 100 | 97 | 101 | 17.3% | 5.6% | 22.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.1 | 2.78 | 6.93 | 1.39 | 1.05 | 2.66 | 2.29 | MIN | 104 | 89 | 101 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 17.3% | 12.8% | 13.4% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -4.8 | 4.61 | 5.5 | 1.63 | 1.01 | 4.36 | 5.19 | FLA | 83 | 82 | 105 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 21.3% | 14.2% | 10.6% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 6.2 | 3.55 | 5.72 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 3.55 | 2.76 | BOS | 113 | 104 | 109 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | -6.2 | 4.67 | 5.12 | 1.14 | 0.93 | 4.82 | 4.55 | TEX | 87 | 91 | 138 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 19.6% | 14.1% | 8.6% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.6 | 4.46 | 5.61 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 4.15 | 6.16 | TOR | 123 | 112 | 120 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 22.8% | 18.5% | 10.1% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.5 | 4.19 | 6.14 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 4.09 | 3.72 | SDG | 100 | 92 | 119 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 18.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.3 | 3.73 | 5.76 | 1.72 | 1.05 | 3.37 | 3.13 | MIL | 86 | 90 | 84 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 21.8% | 17.4% | 7.5% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -0.8 | 3.89 | 5.95 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 3.98 | 6.68 | CIN | 88 | 93 | 117 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 7.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.7 | 3.24 | 6. | 2.07 | 1.05 | 2.93 | 3.74 | NYY | 103 | 102 | 88 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 18.3% | 11.3% | 6.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -4.4 | 2.89 | 6.75 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 3.24 | 3.95 | BAL | 86 | 101 | 60 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 19.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 2.8 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 3.74 | 3.25 | CLE | 88 | 99 | 115 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -1 | 3.81 | 6.3 | 1.54 | 1.07 | 3.66 | 3.91 | TAM | 99 | 96 | 119 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 11.0% | 8.9% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | -3.9 | 4.03 | 5.74 | 1.31 | 1.04 | 4.11 | 2.54 | KAN | 107 | 96 | 114 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 21.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -0.7 | 4.87 | 5.62 | 1.73 | 0.88 | 5.03 | 3.84 | NYM | 100 | 98 | 72 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 20.7% | 11.5% | 9.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 7.7 | 3.86 | 5.86 | 1.65 | 1.04 | 3.45 | 4.22 | SEA | 100 | 102 | 153 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 22.7% | 13.8% | 10.6% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | -5.1 | 5.1 | 5.25 | 2.27 | 1.05 | 4.21 | 6.31 | CHC | 99 | 99 | 137 | 18.8% | 12.4% | 24.3% | 11.0% | 8.1% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.9 | 3.07 | 6.58 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 2.93 | 3.41 | ARI | 97 | 96 | 121 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 11.6% | 6.8% |
Adam Conley has occasionally struggled with control, but has an average strikeout rate and is coming off his best start (seven shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Mets) so far. He’s also managed contact well (3.4 Hard-Soft%). Most importantly, he gets to face the Phillies tonight. They have a 15.2 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB on the road and a 0.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP, while striking out 28.5% of the time over the last week with a -1.7 Hard-Soft%. They are a great park adjusted opponent.
Andrew Cashner has not been pitching well and has had a disappointing season overall. One thing he does have in his favor is that he’s been much better at home this season with a K-BB% three times what it is on the road and 17.8% since last season with a 6.6 HR/FB. Another thing in his favor is the health of the San Francisco lineup. They have nearly an entire starting lineup injured with Belt and Posey going down this week. When healthy, the Giants are the number two offense in baseball vs RHP, but have struck out 27.3% of the time over the last week and park adjust down to a very favorable matchup tonight.
Bartolo Colon allowed more than two runs for the first time in a month last time out, but has struck out exactly two in each of his last three starts after striking out at least seven in three of his previous four. Overall, he allows a little bit too much hard contact for comfort, but has an above average 14.1 K-BB% and makes his money on pinpoint control. He has a 17.0 K-BB% at home as a Met and luckily faces a team that rarely hits the ball hard. They have a 4.7 Hard-Soft% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP with a 3.9 HR/FB over the last week. They rarely strike out (17.8% vs RHP), but are the 3rd worst offense on the road and vs RHP, as well as ice cold over the last seven days and the top park adjusted matchup tonight.
Brandon Finnegan has seen results that far exceed his estimations out of the bullpen, but fared well through five innings in his first start and the 75 pitches he threw make us confident he will be allowed to at least repeat that this time out. His SwStr did drop to 8% in his lone start, so we’ll expect a small drop off from the pen to a starting role, but there’s no reason he can’t sustain something around a league average K%. The walks are a concern and he issued two to the 20 batters he faced last time out, but there is some upside in this arm. The Cardinals have just a 7.8 HR/FB at home and are a bottom five offense vs LHP (23.4 K%, 2.8 HR/FB).
Chase Anderson has not been pitching well and has had a below average season. He doesn’t miss a lot of bad nor generate a lot of ground balls or weak contact. Why am I even bothering to write about him then? Because he’s below average, but far from the worst pitcher in the league in a bad park most the time and tonight he upgrades to a negative run environment at a cheap price. That may not necessarily mean a ton of excess value, but you might at least stand a good chance of getting what you paid for. The Dodgers are a solid offense at home (13.0 HR/FB) and vs RHP (13.6 HR/FB), but strike out at a league average rate and haven’t been hitting the ball well lately. They are a favorable matchup after a downward park adjustment.
Corey Kluber was lifted after 18 batters and 61 pitches in his first start in nearly three weeks due to a hamstring injury. He struck out five despite reduced velocity. Both (pitch count and velocity) are causes for minor concern, but if healthy and unlimited, he’s our top guy tonight. His 22.9 K-BB% is exactly the same as last season and fourth in baseball with a 24.3 K-BB% on the road since last season. Minnesota is a decent home offense, but struggle vs RHP (13.9 K-BB%) and present as a neutral park adjusted matchup tonight.
Drew Smyly has occasionally struggled with the long ball (16.2 HR/FB) but has a career-high 21.3 K-BB% through 10 starts with normal contact authority rates. He did dominate Boston two starts back (struck out 11 of 22 batters) but faces them in a much tougher environment on the road this time. The Red Sox are the 2nd best home offense and above average vs LHP, making them a difficult opponent after an upward park bump.
Kyle Hendricks allowed three HRs in his last start and three to five ERs in nine of his last 11 starts. He’s a bit of an upside project here because we look at his 14.9 K-BB% and 6.6 Hard-Soft% and expect better than his 4.22 ERA. His strikeout rate has even increased to 22.2% over the last month, while striking out 10 of his last 40 batters. Tonight he faces a poor and banged up offense (Ryan Braun has missed a couple of games this week). The Brewers have a 15.2 K-BB% on the road and 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP and are a favorable matchup even after considering a positive run environment.
Marcus Stroman has only struck out five of 47 batters through two starts for a 4.3 K-BB%, but greatly limited hard contact (-10.6 Hard-Soft%) with a SwStr% that suggests slightly better. His velocity has been on par with last season, so we’d expect the strikeouts to come as his batted ball and contact rates even out. He has a 17.0 K-BB% in Toronto since the start of his career with just a 6.1 HR/FB and 7.0 HR/FB overall that’s probably not sustainable over the long run in such a tough park. The Yankees are slightly above average on the road and vs RHP, though not as strong as you might think and rate as a slightly unfavorable matchup with the park adjustment.
Max Scherzer has allowed 18 HRs over his last 14 starts but continues to generate swings and misses at an incredibly elite rate. His 25.6 K-BB% is 3rd best in the majors. The Orioles could pose some problems with a 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP, but should make up for it with a 15.0 K-BB%. They also have a 23.8 K% on the road and have not been hitting the ball well lately (6.7 HR/FB, 3.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They project as a favorable matchup here.
Rick Porcello has a 14.2 K-BB% that’s a career high. Unfortunately, that’s lower than his 15.1 HR/FB that’s also a career high and also comes with a career-low 1.32 GB/FB. You can see the problem. He has a more reasonable, but still high, 12.8 HR/FB at home where he takes on an average offense with a 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP. A park bump makes them an unfavorable opponent tonight.
Roenis Elias has struck out 15 of his last 44 batters but carries just an 11.9 K-BB% for the season due to control issues. The Royals rarely strike out (14.3% at home, 15.1% vs LHP), but don’t walk either (5.5% vs LHP) and have whiffed in 23.0% of their plate appearances over the last week. Nor do they hit for a lot of power (7.5 HR/FB vs LHP). All of that makes this guy slightly interesting, although we can’t really call it a favorable matchup.
Editor’s Note: Zack Greinke has been scratched from tonight’s start. A new starter has not yet been named.
Zack Greinke consistently pitches deep into games and has a 20.7 K-BB% at home since last season. His ERA may be better than his estimators, but those kind of numbers will play at almost any price. He hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a home start in 13 tries and only that many twice. Arizona is an average offense that’s been hitting the ball well lately, but still park adjusts down favorably tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
No pitcher fits the criteria tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Yordano Ventura is really a borderline pitcher today. He has reverted back to previous issues, walking 10 of his last 87 batters without completing six innings in any of his last three starts, while facing the hottest offense in the majors, who put double-digit runs on the board last night.
Phil Hughes has struck out five of 22 batters since returning, but a 4.7 SwStr% shows us that’s a fluke. He may be on a pitch count and Cleveland takes a lot of pitches, which could drive that up early, though he’s still a strike throwing machine and a passive offense could work in his favor. He is near the minimum cost on DraftKings.
Jake Peavy pitched well and tied a season high with eight strikeouts in his last start and does have a good matchup tonight, but has been below average this year and carries an increased price tag (especially on DraftKings).
Charlie Morton – It seems that thing he was doing where his K% and SwStr% spiked for about a month was just a fluke.
Colby Lewis starts with low strikeout and high hard contact rates and faces an offense that doesn’t strike out often.
David Buchanan has allowed seven HRs over his last five starts and has a 20.7 Hard-Soft% on the season. After allowing just two runs over six innings in his last start, he’s finally brought his ERA under nine for the season in 12 starts.
Lance Lynn has struck out three or fewer in five of his last six starts with a 21.8 Hard-Soft% over that span.
Chris Tillman just needs the season to end. Those of us who expected his ERA to regress upwards this year didn’t mean this. Nobody thought he was this bad.
Christian Bergman gets his first start since April. He has a 14.4 K% out of the bullpen. This should go well.
Zachary Davies has a 2.2 K-BB% through four starts.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 21.0% | 8.1% | Home | 18.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.6% | 6.8% | Home | 22.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 12.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.8% | 3.3% | Home | 20.0% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 25.0% | 10.9% | Road | 21.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 18.1% | 8.2% | Road | 18.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 6.9% | Road | 17.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 17.1% | 7.8% | Road | 16.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Christian Bergman | Rockies | 13.4% | 4.6% | Home | 13.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.0% | 5.6% | Road | 17.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.9% | 5.0% | Road | 29.3% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.0% | 7.4% | Road | 13.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 23.2% | 6.7% | Road | 23.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 10.9% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 15.0% | 8.5% | Home | 16.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 14.3% | 6.9% | Road | 15.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.3% | 7.1% | Road | 19.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.0% | 5.6% | Home | 19.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 21.9% | 8.7% | Home | 20.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 20.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 20.0% | 5.3% | Home | 21.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.6% | 5.6% | Home | 27.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 5.4% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.6% | 2.2% | Home | 18.0% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.6% | 5.0% | Home | 17.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 8.9% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 20.4% | 8.8% | Road | 19.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 14.7% | 10.1% | Road | 13.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 21.0% | 8.7% | Home | 23.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 8.8% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 15.1% | 12.9% | Road | 15.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 18.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 24.4% | 4.9% | Home | 25.3% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | LH | 21.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.5% | 8.4% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 7.0% | RH | 18.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Braves | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | RH | 17.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | LH | 23.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | RH | 20.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.9% | 8.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.3% | 8.4% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.9% | 9.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.5% | 7.1% | RH | 20.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.6% | 7.4% | RH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.6% |
| Twins | Home | 19.1% | 7.3% | RH | 21.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.8% | 6.7% | RH | 19.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 7.7% | LH | 19.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.6% | 7.4% | LH | 21.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.3% | 9.6% | RH | 18.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 11.6% |
| Padres | Home | 22.3% | 6.7% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | RH | 20.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.2% | 8.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 6.5% | RH | 22.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.9% |
| Indians | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Road | 20.4% | 7.5% | RH | 21.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Home | 14.3% | 6.5% | LH | 15.1% | 5.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Home | 20.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.7% | 7.6% | RH | 21.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 10.0% | RH | 23.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.3% | 7.5% | RH | 20.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.6% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 19.2% | 10.3% | 22.4% | Home | 14.9% | 9.7% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 5.6% | 22.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 21.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | Home | 22.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.4% | 10.0% | 7.7% | Home | 20.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 18.6% | 19.0% | 19.0% | Road | 17.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 21.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | Road | 21.3% | 13.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 24.3% | 12.5% | 10.2% | Road | 25.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | Road | 20.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Christian Bergman | Rockies | 23.9% | 10.4% | 7.1% | Home | 23.1% | 11.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 22.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | Road | 22.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 21.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | Road | 22.4% | 8.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 21.2% | 11.8% | 14.0% | Road | 22.8% | 10.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 20.0% | 11.2% | 14.7% | Road | 21.3% | 11.0% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 21.0% | 10.8% | 11.3% | Home | 17.9% | 13.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 18.5% | 14.7% | 7.8% | Road | 14.9% | 25.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | Road | 17.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | Home | 20.7% | 11.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.4% | 6.8% | 10.1% | Home | 18.7% | 5.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 18.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | Home | 15.8% | 6.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | Home | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 5.3% | 15.8% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 23.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | Home | 23.0% | 10.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.7% | 11.9% | 8.2% | Home | 21.0% | 12.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 19.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | Road | 18.2% | 12.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.1% | Road | 17.1% | 11.3% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | Home | 19.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 25.8% | 13.3% | 6.7% | Road | 20.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.3% | 9.1% | 11.4% | Home | 21.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | LH | 22.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 16.1% | 6.5% |
| Giants | Road | 22.1% | 11.6% | 6.2% | RH | 21.3% | 10.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | RH | 21.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 3.9% | 13.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | LH | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 23.0% | 13.6% | 8.7% | RH | 21.3% | 14.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 29.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.0% | 13.0% | 9.2% | RH | 21.8% | 13.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 17.1% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 13.4% | 8.4% | RH | 20.7% | 13.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.1% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | RH | 21.3% | 10.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.4% | 7.4% | 11.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 12.3% | 11.1% | RH | 20.6% | 10.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | LH | 20.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | LH | 18.9% | 12.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.5% | 3.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.7% | 15.5% | 14.3% | RH | 19.6% | 14.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| Padres | Home | 20.9% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 19.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | RH | 21.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 19.0% | 4.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 10.9% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.1% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.7% | 13.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.6% | 12.4% | 11.5% | RH | 20.6% | 15.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | RH | 21.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | L7Days | 14.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | RH | 21.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Royals | Home | 20.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | LH | 22.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 11.7% | 12.1% | RH | 22.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.3% | 11.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.4% | 14.5% | 7.1% | RH | 20.2% | 13.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 22.5% | 5.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 13.8% | 10.3% | RH | 20.4% | 13.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 13.2% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% | RH | 21.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 16.3% | 2.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.41 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.52 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 20.1% | 7.8% | 2.58 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 3.01 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.1% | 6.5% | 2.63 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 2.65 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.27 | 27.6% | 12.6% | 2.19 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.22 | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.26 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 16.3% | 7.5% | 2.17 | 15.5% | 8.3% | 1.87 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.2% | 7.5% | 2.16 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.25 |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.97 | 11.4% | 5.4% | 2.11 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 | 11.3% | 6.8% | 1.66 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 27.6% | 12.9% | 2.14 | 30.6% | 14.6% | 2.10 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 11.0% | 6.4% | 1.72 | 11.1% | 5.5% | 2.02 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 27.6% | 11.7% | 2.36 | 29.9% | 12.7% | 2.35 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 17.0% | 9.6% | 1.77 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 1.81 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 13.8% | 7.2% | 1.92 | 9.0% | 6.9% | 1.30 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.9% | 7.9% | 2.27 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 1.99 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.0% | 7.7% | 2.73 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.61 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.5% | 9.1% | 2.47 | 10.7% | 5.7% | 1.88 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 10.6% | 7.5% | 1.41 | 10.6% | 7.5% | 1.41 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.2% | 15.2% | 1.92 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.58 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.3% | 5.4% | 2.65 | 22.7% | 4.7% | 4.83 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 19.6% | 8.1% | 2.42 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 3.35 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 20.1% | 9.8% | 2.05 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.04 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 14.7% | 6.3% | 2.33 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 2.15 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.12 | 28.3% | 13.1% | 2.16 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 15.1% | 8.8% | 1.72 | 15.1% | 8.8% | 1.72 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 23.5% | 12.0% | 1.96 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 1.82 |
Andrew Cashner – The league average K% with a well below average SwStr% was already stretching the boundaries of the imagination, but it’s jumped overboard over the last month. He now has the lowest SwStr% of his career, but the highest K% since 2012.
Marcus Stroman had a higher SwStr (8.3%) in his second start than in his first (6.4%).
Max Scherzer has had a SwStr below 11.8% just four times this season and below 12.5% just twice since the All-Star break. The 16.6% rate over the last month might be a little misleading as he hasn’t exceeded 16% in any of his last three starts, but if that’s going to be our complaint….
Rick Porcello hasn’t had a double-digit SwStr% in his last six starts and has only once been above 8.5% in that span. An increase in his K% over the last month is not to be trusted.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.22 | 4.04 | -0.18 | 4.26 | 0.04 | 4.1 | -0.12 | 2.96 | 3.95 | 0.99 | 4.3 | 1.34 | 3.84 | 0.88 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.25 | 4.02 | -0.23 | 3.87 | -0.38 | 3.94 | -0.31 | 5.4 | 4.3 | -1.1 | 4.01 | -1.39 | 4.24 | -1.16 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.15 | 4 | -0.15 | 3.95 | -0.2 | 3.86 | -0.29 | 1.21 | 3.82 | 2.61 | 3.63 | 2.42 | 2.98 | 1.77 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 2.53 | 3.75 | 1.22 | 3.71 | 1.18 | 4.55 | 2.02 | 1.17 | 3.02 | 1.85 | 2.81 | 1.64 | 3.93 | 2.76 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.26 | 3.91 | -0.35 | 3.85 | -0.41 | 4.04 | -0.22 | 4.94 | 4.21 | -0.73 | 3.93 | -1.01 | 3.8 | -1.14 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 4.52 | 4.33 | -0.19 | 4.2 | -0.32 | 4.23 | -0.29 | 4.58 | 4.47 | -0.11 | 4.24 | -0.34 | 4.57 | -0.01 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.19 | 4.68 | -0.51 | 4.58 | -0.61 | 4.54 | -0.65 | 8.76 | 4.77 | -3.99 | 4.68 | -4.08 | 5.82 | -2.94 |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 3.81 | 4.23 | 0.42 | 4.39 | 0.58 | 4.22 | 0.41 | 0.9 | 4.51 | 3.61 | 4.56 | 3.66 | 3.95 | 3.05 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.41 | 4.43 | 0.02 | 4.62 | 0.21 | 4.18 | -0.23 | 4.99 | 5.27 | 0.28 | 5.12 | 0.13 | 4.51 | -0.48 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.44 | 2.95 | -0.49 | 2.99 | -0.45 | 2.9 | -0.54 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 0.11 | 2.84 | 0.29 | 3.54 | 0.99 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 8.49 | 5.32 | -3.17 | 5.19 | -3.3 | 5.58 | -2.91 | 5.79 | 5.19 | -0.6 | 5.11 | -0.68 | 6.79 | 1 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 3.64 | 3.25 | -0.39 | 3.54 | -0.1 | 4.32 | 0.68 | 3.86 | 3.18 | -0.68 | 3.61 | -0.25 | 4.04 | 0.18 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 4.95 | 4.28 | -0.67 | 4.26 | -0.69 | 4.09 | -0.86 | 6.66 | 4.32 | -2.34 | 4.22 | -2.44 | 5.08 | -1.58 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 5.11 | 4.75 | -0.36 | 4.76 | -0.35 | 4.92 | -0.19 | 9.68 | 5.58 | -4.1 | 5.86 | -3.82 | 7.45 | -2.23 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.08 | 4.3 | 0.22 | 4.43 | 0.35 | 4 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 4.17 | 0.65 | 4.27 | 0.75 | 3.9 | 0.38 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.22 | 3.59 | -0.63 | 3.47 | -0.75 | 3.66 | -0.56 | 5.26 | 3.76 | -1.5 | 3.6 | -1.66 | 4.7 | -0.56 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.28 | 4.03 | 0.75 | 3.98 | 0.7 | 3.56 | 0.28 | 5.11 | 5.78 | 0.67 | 5.43 | 0.32 | 5.58 | 0.47 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 4.05 | 1.05 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 4.05 | 1.05 | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 3.07 | 0.17 | 2.92 | 0.02 | 3.44 | 3.02 | -0.42 | 3.24 | -0.2 | 3.97 | 0.53 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.58 | 4.43 | -0.15 | 4.35 | -0.23 | 4.81 | 0.23 | 7.2 | 3.25 | -3.95 | 3.52 | -3.68 | 4.35 | -2.85 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.16 | 3.87 | -1.29 | 3.89 | -1.27 | 4.41 | -0.75 | 3.06 | 3.25 | 0.19 | 3.15 | 0.09 | 3.37 | 0.31 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 4.06 | 4.15 | 0.09 | 4.26 | 0.2 | 4.25 | 0.19 | 3.38 | 4.04 | 0.66 | 4.23 | 0.85 | 3.35 | -0.03 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 5.16 | 4.87 | -0.29 | 4.83 | -0.33 | 4.94 | -0.22 | 6.39 | 4.07 | -2.32 | 3.84 | -2.55 | 4.84 | -1.55 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.4 | 3.81 | -0.59 | 3.75 | -0.65 | 3.83 | -0.57 | 3.41 | 3.27 | -0.14 | 3.08 | -0.33 | 3.32 | -0.09 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 6 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 4.58 | -1.42 | 4.76 | -1.24 | 6 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 4.58 | -1.42 | 4.76 | -1.24 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.65 | 3.31 | 1.66 | 3.26 | 1.61 | 2.77 | 1.12 | 1.53 | 3.51 | 1.98 | 3.46 | 1.93 | 3.15 | 1.62 |
Adam Conley has stranded 84.9% of his runners over the last month.
Andrew Cashner has allowed a .407 BABIP over the last month and while I’d love tout regression as the answer to everything that strays too far from the norm, he has allowed hard contact 38.2% of the time with an outrageous 35.6 LD%. This is totally his bad.
Bartolo Colon has a nice shiny ERA over the last month due to a 93.9 LOB% that’s actually brought a below average strand rate for most of the season up to league average. This is not generally the way it works, but his ERA for the season is now in line with his ERA estimators due to the massive over-correction over the last month.
Brandon Finnegan has a .192 BABIP and 88.8 LOB% mostly out of the bullpen this year, but also, four of his 17 fly balls have left the yard. That could be a problem in his new home park, but shouldn’t be as much of one in the park he pitches in tonight.
Kyle Hendricks has a 13.3 HR/FB, but it was a more manageable 11.2 HR/FB before his last start. He has an above average K-BB% and good contact authority rates (as mentioned above), which gives him estimators in the league average range despite an ERA much higher. The high HR rate is part of it, but he does have a 1.88 GB/FB, which gives him some room to spare in that HR rate. A 70.0 LOB% is a bit low, but not outrageous. There is some potential regression baked in here with solid underlying numbers.
Rick Porcello has an above average K-BB% and allows a bit more hard contact than the norm (13.1 Hard-Soft%). Along with poor indicators and defense, this has led to a high BABIP to go along with his high HR rate. All of this has also led to a 66.7 LOB% and an ERA much higher than his estimators. I’m not sure how much better we can expect it to get without some adjustments on his part, if he’s even capable of making them.
Zack Greinke – The .231 BABIP is unsustainable over the long run for a guy with a long track record and .299 career rate. He has a strong Z-Contact rate, but really isn’t doing much differently. His 7.1 HR/FB is his lowest since 2009 and well below his 9.1 career HR/FB. An 86.6 LOB% is well beyond a reasonable expectation as well. All of these things are why he’s a Cy Young contender rather than the All Star work horse his underlying numbers suggest, which is still a very desirable pitcher to have on your roster or in your daily fantasy lineup.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.292 | 0.319 | 0.027 | 22.4% | 86.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 8.2% | 89.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.286 | 0.309 | 0.023 | 7.2% | 89.6% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.292 | 0.192 | -0.1 | 17.6% | 86.1% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.304 | 0.297 | -0.007 | 9.9% | 91.7% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 10.9% | 89.0% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.296 | 0.293 | -0.003 | 14.6% | 87.7% |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 0.316 | 0.305 | -0.011 | 8.8% | 88.5% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.295 | 0.282 | -0.013 | 8.2% | 90.4% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 7.9% | 85.8% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.318 | 0.380 | 0.062 | 14.1% | 92.3% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.283 | 0.285 | 0.002 | 13.2% | 86.7% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 0.287 | 0.332 | 0.045 | 11.6% | 85.1% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.300 | 0.286 | -0.014 | 10.0% | 91.7% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.285 | 0.277 | -0.008 | 9.7% | 91.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.291 | 0.303 | 0.012 | 8.6% | 90.0% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.297 | 0.321 | 0.024 | 9.4% | 87.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.282 | 0.243 | -0.039 | 0.0% | 89.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.304 | 0.275 | -0.029 | 12.8% | 79.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.300 | 0.304 | 0.004 | 11.0% | 92.1% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.306 | 0.322 | 0.016 | 5.7% | 87.0% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 0.294 | 0.278 | -0.016 | 10.4% | 85.1% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.307 | 0.320 | 0.013 | 3.1% | 90.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.287 | 0.314 | 0.027 | 8.6% | 88.6% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 0.302 | 0.262 | -0.04 | 6.7% | 82.1% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.297 | 0.231 | -0.066 | 9.2% | 84.6% |
Adam Conley has generated an amazing 13 pop ups already in just 49 innings. Those are free outs and even better than ground balls. He generates a lot of weak contact and has no indicators that would suggest a high BABIP and, in fact, he has just a .284 BABIP over the last month, so I’d guess that the overall rate is likely to drop.
Max Scherzer has elite BABIP indicators as you can see highlighted in green above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brandon Finnegan (4) is at the minimum price on some of the smaller sites and priced just a bit more aggressively, but still well below average on the big two. There is some risk with an ERA well below his estimators and just once start under his belt, but the Cardinals are bad vs LHP, making you believe that he can at least give you a league average performance for five or six innings today (and possibly better). That would generate quite a bit of excess value.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman (5t) hasn’t really had the strikeouts going in his first two starts of the season, but the 2nd start was a bit better than the 1st in terms of SwStr%, the velocity is there, and he has compensated with a ton of weak contact so far. The Yankees are more average than scary vs RHP on the road this season. The park gives the offense a bit of a bump, but he’s pitched well in Toronto since his arrival last year. His price tag is around average on most sites, but if you’re playing DraftDay, he’s at the minimum and almost has to be taken advantage of.
Kyle Hendricks (5t) is a bit of project with an ERA below his estimators and confidence in taking a shot on him (probably GPP only) is in an above average K% and generally limiting hard contact allowed. We have to take some bigger chances today though. It also helps that he has a favorable matchup against a team that’s been without their best remaining player this week (Braun).
Adam Conley is striking out batters at a league average rate, generating frequent weak contact, and faces the Phillies at a below average price tag.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (3) would be my top overall pitcher tonight (by a pretty fair margin) and at the top of the 2nd value tier if I had the utmost confidence that he’d be healthy and without limits tonight. The velocity drop is more concerning than the pitch count because that may have been just to get him back into the saddle again after a few weeks off.
Max Scherzer (1t) has enormous strikeout upside, but now combined with HR downside. The Orioles could help him realize both, but he should benefit more from my projected top strikeout rate tonight (I know, really going out on a limb) than the HR risk should hurt him.
Editor’s Note: Zack Greinke has been scratched from tonight’s start. A new starter has not yet been named.
Zack Greinke (1t) is just going to be seven or eight innings of solid to great pitching at home most likely because that’s what he’s been all season. The cost is extremely high, though.
Andrew Cashner is now priced below average in most places but is still pitching decently at home against a weakened lineup without Belt and possibly Posey now to go along with Pence.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chase Anderson is a below average, but not terrible pitcher at a low price in a slightly decent spot.
Reonis Elias – Control has been his biggest issue, while striking out an average rate of batters. The Royals have struck out a bit more over the last week, but still don’t take walks. It’s not a favorable spot, but one in which you could see him being successful. You could also see him not being successful nearly as often.
Drew Smyly (7) has some swing and miss potential but faces a team that doesn’t often strike out in a tough park with an above average cost.
Bartolo Colon should be fine, but without a lot of upside in his strikeout rate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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