Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, March 30th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-03-30 21:00:45

Got some right, got some wrong and everybody homered, some guys twice. Such was Opening Day. Now we’re into the 2018 season, but will still be using stats from the 2017 for season stats or any lesser period until next week. I have ideas, but have a lot of trouble making other people see the way it looks in my head. For that, again, I have to thank Brian (Cruzintovictory). Every year, I hand him a giant mess and he makes it look presentable. Formatting issues should be out of the way, but please point out of anything still seems out of whack. The changes were larger scale this year and it’s been hectic for everyone on the site with all of the content and new tools to start the season. There’s certainly a chance I may have still over-looked something.

For those unfamiliar with what this is, we attempt to use advanced stats to analyze each day’s starting pitchers. You won’t see a lot of talk about Wins and ERA here, but these are not metrics many people use anymore anyway. Most, if not all, daily fantasy players and casual fans know what K%, FIP, and even SIERA are by now. Staying ahead of or even keeping up with the curve can be a tedious process with all of the information readily available now, but we’ll attempt to do just that by adding in more Statcast this year (xwOBA, Effective Velocity) while removing some stuff that may have become redundant (xwOBA may make Hard% less necessary).

Before getting to the pitchers, just a reminder to use the stats and available news to make your own judgements. If you’re simply skimming through to see where a pitcher is arbitrarily placed in the humble opinions of this author without reading the actual write-ups and/or coming to your own conclusions regarding the research and stats, then you’re using this tool wrong. Even my own opinions can change throughout the day (which I’ll normally try to convey on twitter or in the RG alerts). This is probably even truer the first week or two of the season with the greatest lack of information. We have no stats yet! Readers may certainly be aware of things of which I am not at the time of writing. It’s a big league. Nobody can keep up with everything.

Often times, some very good pitchers may be left off the wish list due to cost or lack of upside in contrast to risk in a particular spot. If you’re playing 10 lineups on DraftKings though, it still may be worth some exposure to high risk arms who are going to fail much more often than they succeed.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Alex Wood was a house of fire in the first half of 2017 (30.9 K%, 63.5 GB%, 21.5 Hard%, 92.5 mph fastball), but it all fell apart in the second half (12.7 K-BB%, 44.2 GB%, 32.9 Hard%, 91.1 mph fastball). The great news is that it’s the first half of the season currently. He struck out 22 in 17.1 spring innings, though I can’t find velocity readings. While he kept LHBs grounded at more than an eight point higher clip, there was no difference in his wOBA against them, while his 18.8 K-BB% was actually higher than against LHBs (17.4%). That puts him in a decent spot, hosting the Giants, who gave Kershaw trouble last night, but were only able to muster a single run on one of those new slap home runs.

Dallas Keuchel may have pitched the second half of the season, when his ERA rose over two runs and his K-BB% was cut in half, with an injured foot, news which would have been good to know last year. The good news is that it may improve his outlook this year. We already know that he’s a dominant ground ball force (66.8 GB%, .279 xwOBA in 2017), but among the handful of pitchers who are able to consistently generate ground balls on more than 60% of their contact, only perhaps Alex Wood has more strikeout potential when healthy. The Rangers have power in a small park and many of the fly balls he does allow leave the yard, but if only one out of every three is off the ground, it’s not much of a problem and Texas also had a 24.8 K% against LHP last year.

David Price made just 11 starts last season before hitting the DL with an elbow injury. He returned to finish the season and post-season out of the bullpen. It was the second time since 2009 (his rookie season) that he failed to throw 200 innings. It seems like a lot of today’s pitchers had second half issues, making them more difficult to analyze using last year’s numbers. He struck out 13 in 12 innings, starting three games this spring, which really doesn’t tell us much either. What we do know is that when he was healthy, he was one of few guys you could normally count on seven or eight innings from. Perhaps, with a new manager, and an injury history now, that changes. Hard to know. We also know the Rays struck out in 25.9% of plate appearances against lefties last year.

Jhoulys Chacin is not a bad pitcher, as last year’s numbers show, but he was able to limit his home runs pitching in San Diego, where he returns tonight. Statcast actually has him down for just a .303 xwOBA, tied for the third lowest rate of batted balls above 95 mph on the board (28.3%). He has some pretty extreme splits (RHBs 15.4 K-BB%, 3.23 FIP, 2.6 lower aEV and 58 point wOBA last three years), but the Padres don’t really have a lefty to fear beyond their newest signee. They do have some speed, but he absolutely shuts down the running game too.

Kyle Hendricks is the plug and play against the Marlins. Yeah, that didn’t work out so well, but we’re not nearly ready to give up on the Marlins yet and that may have had a lot more to do with pitching and defense than offensive ability. Despite losing more velocity off of an already slow fastball, he was able to strike out batters at an above average rate and generate a 3.03 ERA. His strand rate was above 80% for the second year in a row and certainly not sustainable, but his 83.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board.

Masahiro Tanaka was either feast or famine last year and sometimes both. He was much better in the second half when he was at least generating tons of strikeouts to go along with all the long balls. Whether the opposition leans left or right-handed doesn’t matter much to him as he doesn’t have a lot of pitches that run side to side. They either drop straight down or hang there to get knocked out of the park. His 42.4 O-Swing% is only the second mark above 40% since 2007, which goes a long way in explaining his 15.1 SwStr% last season. Josh Donaldson had major difficulties throwing to first base yesterday. Toronto said he had a dead arm. The Blue Jays are in major trouble if he’s not healthy again.

Robbie Ray faces a perennially atrocious road offense. Patrick Corbin struck out eight in 5.2 innings yesterday and we can essentially copy yesterday’s blurb about the humidor potentially under-valuing Arizona pitchers for a while, the LHP removing the platoon advantage from the best Colorado hitter and Nolan Arenado (even though he homered yesterday), essentially being a league average hitter against LHP on the road (101 wRC+ career before yesterday). Now, Ray gets hit hard when contact is made (the humidor should help) and his lack of control can be stomach churning, but the strikeout potential is enormous. The Rockies had a strikeout rate above 23% both on the road and versus LHP last year.

Sean Manaea made more starts than I thought he had last year as he’s yet another pitcher who dealt with some injuries last season. While he only struck out batters at a league average rate last year, he has some impressive secondary pitches and generated an 11.4 SwStr% that suggests the potential for more this year. His does allow quite a bit of hard contact and had trouble with RHBs (.347 wOBA, 36.9 Hard%), but (and I had to triple check this), the Angels had the lowest wRC+ against LHP in the majors last year due to just an 8.8 HR/FB. They didn’t have Upton all season though and added a few more RHBs (Cozart, Kinsler) to an already predominantly right-handed lineup, but Kinsler is already hurt and Trout went 0 for 6 yesterday, so he’s obviously toast now.

Tyler Anderson showed flashes and even struck out batters at a higher rate (22.4% vs 20.7%) than he did in his rookie season, but his ground ball rate dropped seven points and his HR/FB rose to 19.5%. You might think…Coors, but it was actually 25% on the road. The good news is that his .303 xwOBA was 44 points lower than his actual one and his 84.5 mph aEV is tied for second lowest on the board, so there may be some optimism about a rebound. Also, the humidor, although the Diamondbacks put eight run on the board last night. So what, the Mets put up nine in a pitcher’s park. It happens. Surprising to recall that the Diamondbacks were so poor against LHP last season, though Martinez was not with the team all season. He’s gone this year, as are fellow lefty-mashers Iannetta and Tomas, though he’ll still have to contend with Pollack and Goldschmidt.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Blake Snell crapped the bed over his first twenty-something major league starts, walking a double-digit rate of batters, but turned it around at the end of July. This was not because he was throwing more strikes, but because he was getting more swings outside of the zone after altering his pitch mix to favor the curveball more with fewer fastballs. The main concern is that the Red Sox had a 6.7 K-BB% against LHP last season and added more right-handed firepower for this season, greatly limiting the upside potential here. He did excel at generating weak contact as his board leading 4.3% Barrels/BBE and second best 27.7 95+ mph EV shows below.

Tyler Skaggs threw 85 innings in 16 starts last year. Yet another pitcher with injury issues. He had league average peripherals and that may be what his upside is. His BABIP was a bit elevated last season, but he allowed a lot of contact in the zone (90.2%) despite a very low Z-O-Swing%. He’s the first pitcher I’ve seen with such a combination so far. The A’s struck out a lot last year (23.8% at home, 24.2% vs LHP), but should be better than their 90 wRC+ against southpaws. They have quite a bit of right-handed pop.

Joey Lucchesi was called a potential reliever in the “others of note” section of the San Diego system write up from Fangraphs in 2016, but has improved to a 50 FV (future value) rating this year. It appears his secondaries have improved enough to remain a starter for now. He controls the running game, but his main positive aspect may be a deceptive delivery. There just isn’t a lot of information. He may benefit from that too tonight and doesn’t cost a lot, but is not the minimum on either site.

Johnny Cueto is yet another pitcher coming off an injury plagued season. In the 25 starts he did make, his estimators agreed with an ERA in the mid-fours with a .348 xwOBA that is highest among any of the main slate pitchers who threw more than 36 innings last year. Perhaps he returns to prominence this year, but this one isn’t too hard to fade in a tough spot against a strong offense.

Mike Foltynewicz can miss bats at a league average rate, although that seems to come with a bit of variance (hit or miss is not always a bad thing for daily fantasy). LHBs absolutely assault him though with a wOBA above .370 both last season and for his career. If playing a lot of lineups, you can take a shot that he’ll pop eight to 10 guys at a low cost though.

Aaron Sanchez misses the majority of the 2017 season, starting only eight games (36 innings). He did have a solid spring, allowing a runner per inning over 17.2 innings with 16 strikeouts. Swing and miss is not necessarily a huge part of his game (18.7 K%, 7.4 SwStr%, 353.1 career IP), but he has generated a 60.3 GB% against RHBs, which could ground some of the big Yankee bats. There is minor appeal at $5.9K on DraftKings.

Nick Pivetta had a 24 K% last season, but with just an 8.7 SwStr%. I’ve seen some smart people fascinated with his stuff and predicting a breakout, but I just don’t see it. RHBs had a .409 wOBA and 20 HRs against him last year. Yes, that’s what we’d call a significant reverse split. There may be some evidence that he was unlucky in BABIP, but that doesn’t explain the HRs and same handed hitters did have a 41.5 Hard% against him also. He may be better this year, both his estimators and Statcast suggest that could be the case, but they don’t even get him all the way to league average.

Doug Fister had a renascence last season, returning to the majors with two more miles per hour of fire in his fastball than when he left. He combined a league average-ish 11.5 K-BB% with a 50.6 GB% (15% and 55% over his last 11 starts). LHBs were still a problem (.365 wOBA). Against RHBs, he generated a 53.4 GB% and 0.8 Hard-Soft%. That may just make some right-handed Houston bats less interesting. Despite their predominance of bats from that side, this is not a spot where we can have interest in Fister. We’re rarely going to have interest in opposing the Astros and certainly not in a park that boosts offense significantly.

Caleb Smith made his major league debut at the age of 25 last season, throwing 18.2 innings for the Yankees split between two starts and several relief appearances. He had some swing and miss, as you can see below, but also control issues and generated very few ground balls (27.6%). His AAA numbers were a bit more impressive (17.5 K-BB% through 98 IP and 17 starts). He was a 14th round pick in 2013. There’s absolutely no prospect hype on him. He likely wouldn’t be starting on many (if any) other teams.

Ivan Nova is in a fine spot theoretically, against what should be a poor Detroit offense, but there are a few issues here. He has little strikeout potential. His 91.3 Z-Contact% is highest on the board. He fools nobody and gets hit fairly hard too (87.9 mph aEV). Detroit has become a fairly positive run scoring environment.

Jordan Zimmermann had a 26.1 Hard-Soft% last season behind only Chris Archer on this board. It rose to 29.5% at home. As suggested in the link directly above, Comerica Park might be a hidden hitter’s haven. He had a .354 xwOBA and .362 Home xwOBA last season and an 88.6 mph aEV overall. The Pirates may have made a few trades, but still have some formidable bats in that lineup. Zimmermann did not have a platoon split last year. He was mauled equally well by batters from either side.

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Peripherals (Opponent)

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Masahiro Tanaka may look like he’s in line for even more strikeouts, but has just a career 1.86 K/SwStr. Not going to complain about a 25% strikeout rate though.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Kyle Hendricks has kept his strand rate above 80% for the second straight year. His BABIP and HR/FB moved much closer to league average last year, precipitating the jump in ERA to a still very respectable 3.03. It may have a bit more regression to come.

Masahiro Tanaka had a 21.2 HR/FB last season (the FIP is the only matching indicator). Not much he can do about that in Yankee Stadium. He’s been lower in the past, but so has everybody.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Alex Wood has a 53 GB% that’s second best on the site and his 27.7 Z-O-Swing% suggests great difficulty in picking up the ball.

Dallas Keuchel generates a ton of weak ground balls (-0.7 Hard-Soft% is easily best on the board) and he had the lowest line drive rate on the board last year as well, though that’s more explanatory than predictive.

Kyle Hendricks gets so many swings outside of the zone compared to inside of it.

StatCast Chart

Alex Wood allowed the lowest rate of contact above 95 mph on the board and his xwOBA is tied for the best mark on the main slate, even with a poor second half.

Dallas Keuchel ties with Wood for the lowest xwOBA and is also tied for the second lowest aEV.

Jhoulys Chacin has a lower xwOBA than I was expecting. He really excelled at generating weak contact. Perhaps the park had something to do with that. We’ll certainly learn more this year, but not tonight.

Kyle Hendricks can compete with any of the weak contact generators on the board.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed the highest rate of barrels on the board last year.

Robbie Ray combines an xwOBA below .300 with the highest aEV and 95+ mph EV on the board.

Sean Manaea has the second highest aEV on the board and that could be challenged against a strong right-handed offense tonight.

Tyler Anderson has a believer in Statcast, though there’s a contrast in his low aEV and higher Barrels rate. Feast or famine. As you can also see in the BABIP table above, he may have lost some ground balls last season, but ties for the board lead in popup rate.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Max Scherzer is the incredibly obvious top arm if playing the afternoon slate, but this is something we’ll otherwise ignore due to the early start.

Masahiro Tanaka (1) has tremendous upside. Tops on the night slate perhaps. It’s odd that the guy with half a torn UCL is one of the few top pitchers today who didn’t have major injury concerns last year, but that’s the group we’re dealing with today. Getting him out of Yankee Stadium should quell HR fears. It’s not like Toronto is a pitcher’s park, but it’s more reasonable. If I were to guess, I’d pick Granderson as the guy to take him deep. If he strikes out 10 to 12, who cares? I’m stunned he’s less than $9.5K on either site.

Robbie Ray (2) comes with the same issues and upside as Tanaka. Again, I’m stunned that he’s $9.5K or less on either site. The humidor is the wild card here.

Kyle Hendricks (4) though no Keuchel, also excels at generating a lot of weak contact on the ground combined with above average strikeouts. He has a strong defense behind him (if he keeps the ball on the ground) and a great matchup in Miami. I actually expected him to cost more than $10K in this spot.

Value Tier Two

Dallas Keuchel (3) generates a ton of weak ground balls with above average strikeouts when he’s healthy. With so few fly balls, the park in Texas is less of a concern. The Rangers strike out a lot. He’s also not one of those two times through the order guys, averaging well over six innings per start for the last two calendar years.

Alex Wood (6) should be worth all the money if he pitches like he did in the first half last season and that was the indication this spring (although velocity readings seem to be unavailable). He gets knocked down a peg because he did have that second half last season. He has one of the largest price gaps on the board, $2K more on DraftKings. A chief concern here would also be that the Dodgers don’t let a lot of guys not named Kershaw go much further than twice through the order. Wood was no exception last year.

Value Tier Three

David Price (5) is returning from an injury plagued season, otherwise he’d certainly be a top pitcher in this envious spot. He might still be. There’s not enough information right now and he’s not very cheap, though quite a bit cheaper on FanDuel.

Jhoulys Chacin is a cheap arm in a nice spot in San Diego. The upside isn’t tremendous, but he doesn’t have much to worry about in terms of platoon disadvantage, doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (especially to RHBs) and shuts down the running game.

Tyler Anderson was a virtual stud in 2016 and only showed flashes while struggling with contact last year. Statcast is more optimistic and he did increase his strikeouts. We’re going to continue betting on the humidor under-valuing pitchers early on. There is some danger here, but he’s fairly cheap.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Sean Manaea is a high risk (who isn’t?), high upside play tonight at a reasonable price. He doesn’t cost much and could run into trouble against a more talented right-handed offense than they were last year, but you can bet on some swing and miss stuff here. This is likely to be very hit or miss. He could sink or carry your lineup.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.