Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 24th
A cozy little nine game slate to start the week. I understand some players love having all the options, but Mondays are my favorite DFS slates. Who can possibly have enough time to be as thorough as necessary in order to optimally prepare for a 15 game slate. While I can’t argue that this is one of the more exciting collection of arms we’ll see, there are a few who have been interesting this season, for better or worse, and luckily, the shorter slate will afford an opportunity to look for differences in their game.
One last note on Joe Ross Washington situation before we get started. He was listed for Washington as of early Sunday night, but then was removed without a replacement from MLB.com. Now, as of about a half hour before midnight on the east coast, it sounds as if it might be Jacob Turner. Essentially, it’s Coors, so you’re stacking lefties no matter which it is. The Colorado team numbers against RHP stand either way.
We now have 2017 team defense stats and are up to date on everything for the current season. Whether we can buy into these defensive numbers yet is another question. I mean, the Mets (not shown) are basically considered a neutral defense so far and any pained fan can tell you that’s been far from true this year.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 22.6 | 2.62 | 6.4 | 46.9% | 1.02 | 3.7 | 1.92 | MIL | 85 | 140 | 102 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 12.7 | 3.61 | 5.54 | 64.2% | 0.97 | 3.45 | 4.37 | PIT | 101 | 76 | 83 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 6 | 4.52 | 5.18 | 41.9% | 0.97 | 6.01 | 4.07 | CHC | 109 | 93 | 128 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 5.9 | 3.34 | 6.17 | 46.0% | 1.02 | 3.55 | 3.08 | BAL | 84 | 112 | 75 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -1.6 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 51.3% | 0.91 | 4.58 | 2.35 | ANA | 129 | 82 | 83 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | -11.6 | 3.47 | 5. | 49.2% | 0.93 | 3.23 | 3.01 | SFO | 76 | 85 | 64 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 14.6 | 3.68 | 5.08 | 41.3% | 0.98 | 3.23 | 1.8 | CHW | 76 | 114 | 49 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -2.9 | 3.9 | 5.76 | 43.5% | 0.91 | 3.79 | 3.77 | TOR | 90 | 74 | 104 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.1 | 4.38 | 5.4 | 48.4% | 1.13 | 4.67 | 4.69 | ARI | 136 | 114 | 111 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -8.2 | 3.86 | 5.61 | 45.4% | 1.39 | 3.78 | 2.92 | COL | 83 | 68 | 118 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | -2.4 | 4.83 | 5.83 | 54.2% | 1.11 | 4.51 | 4.71 | MIN | 94 | 95 | 83 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 1.3 | 4.74 | 5.07 | 36.7% | 0.93 | 4.83 | 4.78 | LOS | 95 | 129 | 111 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -7.7 | 4.62 | 5.57 | 49.1% | 1.02 | 4.19 | CIN | 121 | 95 | 81 | |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 39.3% | 0.98 | 4.54 | 4.79 | KAN | 61 | 72 | 51 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 16.2 | 4.58 | 5.72 | 35.4% | 1.11 | 5.3 | 4.15 | TEX | 96 | 98 | 63 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.3 | 3.9 | 5.83 | 49.1% | 1.39 | 3.75 | 4.97 | WAS | 105 | 229 | 101 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -11.1 | 4.37 | 5.55 | 48.0% | 1.02 | 4.43 | 5.93 | TAM | 89 | 113 | 133 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -11.2 | 3.65 | 6.54 | 46.8% | 1.13 | 4.42 | 4.13 | SDG | 73 | 83 | 73 |
Amir Garrett is only a marginal to middling prospect a few weeks ago, but he seems to have improved with each start, finishing his most recent by striking out 12 Orioles (19.6 SwStr%) in seven innings. It was the first time in three starts he threw his fastball less than 60% of the time and why not? The secondary stuff has been better than the 91 mph heater so far, though it wasn’t supposed to be. It’s difficult to project him to continue on this trajectory (84.3 LOB%), but he’s throwing strikes and often pitching ahead in the count and generating whiffs in the strike zone, even if he’s not getting batters to chase very often.
The opposition in his starts is about as interesting as it gets as well. He’s faced two teams, who should be proficient against LHP, but haven’t been the last couple of years despite the predominance of RH bats in their lineup (Orioles & Cardinals) and one which hasn’t been this year despite that same predominance (Pirates). Have the circumstances conspired to make him look better than he’s really been? Probably not entirely. It’s tough to put up these numbers against even marginal opponents. The Brewers have quite a bit of RH power and they’ve been bludgeoning southpaws, but also striking out nearly one-third of the time against them.
Chris Archer had an unimpressive SwStr% going into his last start, but we mentioned that might have been due to coming off a meeting with Boston. He proceeded to miss 20 Detroit bats. The biggest change so far this year is that his hard contact is not turning into barrels, meaning optimal hitting launch angles. It’s staying in the park and turning into BABIP (line drives). Sure, .352 is not ideal, but it’s an enviable trade-off for keeping the ball in the park, although we’d expect those two numbers to eventually even out. The Baltimore bats have been a bit off so far overall, but still have power vs RHP (16.3 HR/FB) and will strike out a bit.
Francisco Liriano got one out in his 2017 debut, walking four of the eight batters he faced. Since then, he’s struck out 16 of 47 with just three walks, allowing two runs to Baltimore and Boston. He is a box of chocolates. You don’t know what you’re going to get and he has the highest aEV on the board (93 mph). His ground ball rate has dropped by 15 points, mostly going into his line drive rate, explaining an elevated BABIP, though he continues to miss bats. The Angels have been good at home and are predominantly right-handed, but have been striking out a bit more this season and this is a strongly favorable park transition for him today.
Jason Vargas is really the guy to talk about today. He has the top SwStr% and K% on the board, along with a 0.44 ERA! Little did we know the reason his missing nearly two seasons was a bionic arm transplant. In a season where everyone else’s GB% is down, he’s up 15.5 points from his career mark.
He’s still bringing the heat at 86 mph, but has thrown his two-seamer a bit more often at the cost of a few four seamers. There’s another pitch, which Brooks sees as a continuation of his curve, but Fangraphs calls “knuckle-curve”, which he began throwing in 2015, right before he was injured. This is not the pitch that has been getting the majority of the whiffs, but it does remind some of what someone like Rich Hill has been able to do with his curveball at a similar age. It’s the change that’s getting 30% whiffs. Movement seems to have changed by less than an inch and horizontally according to Brooks.
The only “Aha!” moment you can find is that he’s going upstairs more often against RHBs, above the strike zone and generating more swings and misses that way. The 86 mph must look so juicy coming in, but we also know relative velocity is a bit more on higher pitches. It’s not a lot more, but this, in conjunction with the rest of his pitch mix, appears to be doing the trick for him. Opponents are not making hardly any hard contact against him either (85.1 mph aEV, no barrels, 26.5 Hard%).
It’s not a matter of facing strikeout prone offenses either (SF, OAK, HOU). The White Sox are more competent against LHP, but have shown little power either way. He won’t sustain a 93.8 LOB% or 0.0 HR/FB, but it’s otherwise all looking very good right now.
Jesse Chavez has made two really good starts with a SwStr above 12% sandwiched around one bad one. He’s essentially throwing more sliders (14.29 SwStr%) than he ever has in a starting role at the expense of his cutter. It’s not a great slider, but it works. Toronto has struggled greatly against RHP and should be slider vulnerable and are now down Donaldson and Tulo apparently.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Miguel Gonzalez (.304 – 86.2% – 8.0) has previously shown some ability to hold down his BABIP with frequent weak contact in the air, but the BABIP is over .300 this year. I’d expect that to fall, but the strand rate should plummet. The Royals are terrible, but there’s not enough potential in his arm to far exceed a cost around $7.5K.
Martin Perez (.377 – 84.8% – 12.5) is allowing harder contact (41.3 Hard%) and many fewer ground balls (40.3%). How the hell is he stranding 84.8% of runners between this and a 13.2 BB% with a well below average strikeout rate?
Matt Cain (.245 – 90.4% – 12) hasn’t found the fountain of youth. All estimators are just as poor, he isn’t missing more bats, the contact and batted ball rates are all very similar. The park may still be of some benefit to him against an offense that smokes RHP like the Dodgers, but that’s about it.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hyun-Jin Ryu went past five innings and 77 pitches for the first time last time out, getting in six innings on 97 pitches. The great news is that he’s exceeded a 14 SwStr% in each of his last two starts and has generally kept the ball on the ground (52.3%), but faced a Colorado offense that struggles against LHP twice and has allowed six HRs already (14.3 Barrels/BBE) with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph. The good news is that he won’t sustain a 54.5 HR/FB and he travels to face a San Francisco offense that just does not hit for any power at home (23.1 Hard%, 3.8 HR/FB), but they don’t strike out a lot either. His DraftKings price needs a major adjustment. He’s the most expensive pitcher on that site. He’s actually a reasonable choice for $3K less on FanDuel, but still probably not someone worth getting excited about today.
Zack Greinke dropped to an all-time game low velocity of 89 mph last time out, fueling speculation of a potential injury being covered up. He was oddly effective (14.6 SwStr%) at that velocity, but it was in San Diego. He has been consistently missing bats overall, which makes this even stranger and does get the Padres again. However, this time it’s in Arizona and the contact opponents are making has been rather hard (20 Hard-Soft%). The risk just seems a bit much for the high cost here.
Chad Kuhl (.265 – 72.7% – 0) hasn’t allowed a HR yet. That’s the easy answer. The strange part is that he’s not generating more than half his contact in the air and more of it has been hard this year (36.7%), though Statcast does not perceive that he’s meeting many barrels at all. Considering he’s generated only one popup and a 16.7 LD%, launch angles must be very close to a danger zone so far. He’s generated a 15+ SwStr% against St. Louis and Atlanta, though struck out the most batters against Boston (six on a 7.6 SwStr%). It’s unexplainable. His fastballs have doubled down on their 6% swinging strike rate from last year, though velocity gains have been minimal without maybe in inch more ride on his sinker. The Cubs should be difficult on a pitcher who walked six in his first start, though just one total over his last two, throwing a ton of first pitch strikes.
Brett Anderson didn’t allow a run in the start with four walks (two strikeouts), but six in the one against the Brewers where he struck out five of 19 without a walk. Despite fairly average Statcast data, at least one-third of his contact has been recorded as hard in each start. More concerning, more than 10% of his batted balls that used to be grounders have become line drives this year and that’s not just one start. His ground ball rate hasn’t exceeded 50% in any of his three starts and that’s at least a DFS problem for a guy without a lot of strikeout potential. While his SwStr% is up, it’s difficult to find a basis for this. The pitches don’t appear much different, and in fact, have lost velocity. Yet, his slider and curve have been responsible for more whiffs. Best guess is that facing the Brewers twice has more to do with a lot of his stats than anything so far. The Pirates have been disappointing against LHP so far and we can’t even blame Marte too much for that yet. He also may have the benefit of a strong wind blowing in from left, further hindering RH power in a park that suppresses it more than almost any other park already.
Matt Garza makes his first start off a groin injury. He was last relevant for DFS purposes back in 2013.
Jhoulys Chacin, Jacob Turner and Phil Hughes are all below average pitchers in parks ranging from difficult to terrible tonight. This is where we save some words and while Tyler Anderson looked a little better in his last start, it was in LA against the Dodgers, who struggle against LHP. Hopefully, he can recapture what he brought in his rookie season last year, making him usable even in Colorado most outings, but this is not the spot to speculate.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 28.4% | 4.1% | Road | 19.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 1.9% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.3% | 6.5% | Road | 13.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 9.8% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.2% | Home | 14.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 2.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 7.9% | Road | 25.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.7% | 10.5% | Road | 21.8% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 6.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.5% | Road | 23.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.0% | Road | 26.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.0% | Home | 22.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.7% | Road | 16.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.5% | Road | 22.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 3.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.0% | 8.7% | Home | 13.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 12.1% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.9% | 8.1% | Home | 18.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.0% | Home | 18.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.0% | Home | 17.3% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 14.1% | 3.4% | Road | 11.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.2% | Home | 20.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 9.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.7% | Home | 20.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 11.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.1% | 5.5% | Home | 17.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 7.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 31.7% | 8.7% | LH | 30.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 10.1% | LH | 23.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.5% | 9.5% | RH | 24.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 21.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 7.9% | LH | 21.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.7% |
| Giants | Home | 17.4% | 8.3% | LH | 20.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.4% | 9.1% | LH | 16.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.2% | 9.6% | RH | 24.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.6% | 8.5% | RH | 24.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.9% | 7.5% | RH | 21.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 9.5% | LH | 21.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 9.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.2% | 10.2% | RH | 20.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.6% |
| Reds | Road | 15.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.7% |
| Royals | Road | 22.2% | 7.0% | RH | 22.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.0% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 11.2% | LH | 16.1% | 14.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.6% |
| Rays | Road | 33.1% | 7.1% | RH | 26.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.0% |
| Padres | Road | 24.2% | 7.7% | RH | 23.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 34.7% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 2017 | 34.7% | 6.3% | 14.3% | Road | 32.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 11.1% | 17.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.8% | 18.4% | 0.6% | 2017 | 39.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | Road | 34.1% | 16.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 14.3% | 23.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.7% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 2017 | 36.7% | 0.0% | 22.4% | Home | 41.0% | 11.8% | 30.0% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 2017 | 35.2% | 0.0% | 21.1% | Road | 33.6% | 20.4% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 0.0% | 46.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 2017 | 35.5% | 10.0% | 32.3% | Road | 34.1% | 25.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 0.0% | 28.5% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 36.5% | 41.2% | 15.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 54.5% | 6.6% | Road | 35.7% | 42.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 62.5% | 6.6% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 6.0% | 13.1% | 2017 | 26.5% | 0.0% | 6.1% | Road | 23.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 2017 | 29.1% | 18.8% | 18.2% | Home | 29.3% | 19.0% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 2017 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 15.0% | Road | 35.6% | 16.3% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 2017 | 21.1% | 16.7% | -5.2% | Road | 30.8% | 10.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 16.7% | -5.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 2017 | 41.3% | 12.5% | 25.4% | Home | 28.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 9.1% | 26.1% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.2% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 2017 | 30.8% | 12.0% | 17.3% | Home | 29.9% | 13.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 5.6% | 26.4% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 13.6% | 16.5% | 2017 | Home | 40.1% | 13.2% | 23.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2017 | 22.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | Home | 26.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 35.2% | 13.2% | 20.1% | 2017 | 51.9% | 13.0% | 42.3% | Road | 38.9% | 8.9% | 22.9% | L14 Days | 59.4% | 30.0% | 53.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2017 | 35.4% | 22.7% | 13.9% | Home | 30.4% | 12.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 22.2% | 4.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 2017 | 35.7% | 16.7% | 14.3% | Home | 32.8% | 16.2% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 8.3% | 16.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 2017 | 38.7% | 7.7% | 20.0% | Home | 36.2% | 10.9% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 8.3% | 16.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 40.7% | 20.3% | 19.9% | LH | 39.1% | 26.7% | 18.1% | L7Days | 38.9% | 24.5% | 17.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.2% | 10.5% | 5.6% | LH | 29.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | RH | 28.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | L7Days | 31.9% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 24.5% | 10.0% | 4.9% | RH | 30.1% | 16.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Home | 28.2% | 15.0% | 9.7% | LH | 29.8% | 4.2% | 14.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% |
| Giants | Home | 23.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | LH | 30.2% | 13.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 5.0% | 9.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | LH | 27.5% | 6.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.2% | 11.8% | 11.7% | RH | 31.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.3% | 18.9% | 6.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.2% | 15.2% | 25.5% | RH | 34.6% | 13.4% | 19.0% | L7Days | 30.6% | 14.5% | 10.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 28.8% | 19.5% | 8.5% | RH | 28.1% | 11.5% | 3.7% | L7Days | 29.6% | 25.0% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Road | 38.7% | 11.5% | 24.7% | LH | 33.8% | 5.5% | 15.2% | L7Days | 35.1% | 9.4% | 16.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 30.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% | RH | 34.2% | 14.3% | 16.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.8% | 19.6% |
| Reds | Road | 25.0% | 14.3% | -1.1% | RH | 27.1% | 11.1% | 4.3% | L7Days | 31.8% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Royals | Road | 27.1% | 14.6% | 3.1% | RH | 27.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.3% | 20.2% | 17.1% | RH | 32.1% | 15.3% | 13.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.1% | 12.8% | 14.5% | LH | 32.6% | 20.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 31.3% | 12.1% | 13.8% |
| Rays | Road | 36.0% | 17.0% | 16.0% | RH | 34.8% | 16.3% | 16.4% | L7Days | 38.7% | 11.6% | 21.0% |
| Padres | Road | 30.4% | 13.8% | 8.1% | RH | 28.9% | 16.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 16.7% | 8.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 28.4% | 12.9% | 2.20 | 28.4% | 12.9% | 2.20 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 17.2% | 10.0% | 1.72 | 17.2% | 10.0% | 1.72 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.4% | 12.9% | 1.50 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 1.50 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 25.5% | 12.6% | 2.02 | 25.5% | 12.6% | 2.02 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 30.9% | 11.5% | 2.69 | 30.9% | 11.5% | 2.69 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 31.1% | 13.4% | 2.32 | 31.1% | 13.4% | 2.32 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 21.1% | 11.3% | 1.87 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 1.87 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 15.5% | 6.9% | 2.25 | 15.5% | 6.9% | 2.25 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 25.9% | 7.0% | 3.70 | 25.9% | 7.0% | 3.70 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 17.6% | 6.6% | 2.67 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 2.67 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.46 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.46 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | ||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.19 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.19 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 19.1% | 11.2% | 1.71 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 1.71 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 12.5% | 6.9% | 1.81 | 12.5% | 6.9% | 1.81 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 19.8% | 11.7% | 1.69 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 1.69 |
All of our outliers oddly appear to be on the potential improvement end. I’m not sure how much I buy into three of the four, though Zack Greinke at least has a track record. It’s encouraging Tyler Anderson above 10% in three of his four starts though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 1.83 | 2.61 | 0.78 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 2.02 | 0.19 | 2.78 | 0.95 | 1.83 | 2.62 | 0.79 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 2.02 | 0.19 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | 3.52 | -0.88 | 3.3 | -1.1 | 7.27 | 2.87 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | 3.52 | -0.88 | 3.3 | -1.1 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 2.6 | 4.58 | 1.98 | 5.15 | 2.55 | 2.82 | 0.22 | 1.97 | -0.63 | 2.6 | 4.59 | 1.99 | 5.15 | 2.55 | 2.82 | 0.22 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.2 | 3.31 | 0.11 | 3.03 | -0.17 | 1.7 | -1.5 | 1.10 | -2.10 | 3.2 | 3.31 | 0.11 | 3.03 | -0.17 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.11 | 3.45 | -1.66 | 3.13 | -1.98 | 2.88 | -2.23 | 2.00 | -3.11 | 5.11 | 3.46 | -1.65 | 3.13 | -1.98 | 2.88 | -2.23 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 5.87 | 2.98 | -2.89 | 2.99 | -2.88 | 6.93 | 1.06 | 7.89 | 2.02 | 5.87 | 2.99 | -2.88 | 2.99 | -2.88 | 6.93 | 1.06 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.44 | 2.06 | 1.62 | 1.96 | 1.52 | 0.95 | 0.51 | 1.74 | 1.30 | 0.44 | 2.07 | 1.63 | 1.96 | 1.52 | 0.95 | 0.51 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 5 | 3.61 | -1.39 | 3.37 | -1.63 | 4.1 | -0.9 | 3.91 | -1.09 | 5 | 3.61 | -1.39 | 3.37 | -1.63 | 4.1 | -0.9 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.7 | 4.46 | -0.24 | 4.36 | -0.34 | 3.88 | -0.82 | 3.51 | -1.19 | 4.7 | 4.46 | -0.24 | 4.36 | -0.34 | 3.88 | -0.82 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.86 | 2.92 | -0.94 | 2.69 | -1.17 | 3.17 | -0.69 | 1.34 | -2.52 | 3.86 | 2.92 | -0.94 | 2.69 | -1.17 | 3.17 | -0.69 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.6 | 4.96 | 1.36 | 4.37 | 0.77 | 4.38 | 0.78 | 3.47 | -0.13 | 3.6 | 4.96 | 1.36 | 4.37 | 0.77 | 4.38 | 0.78 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 3.31 | 5.02 | 1.71 | 5.35 | 2.04 | 5.27 | 1.96 | 7.06 | 3.75 | 3.31 | 5.02 | 1.71 | 5.35 | 2.04 | 5.27 | 1.96 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 2.84 | 4.35 | 1.51 | 4.53 | 1.69 | 3.78 | 0.94 | 4.52 | 1.68 | 2.84 | 4.35 | 1.51 | 4.53 | 1.69 | 3.78 | 0.94 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 5.4 | 4.39 | -1.01 | 4.49 | -0.91 | 4.62 | -0.78 | 5.38 | -0.02 | 5.4 | 4.39 | -1.01 | 4.49 | -0.91 | 4.62 | -0.78 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 7.32 | 4.14 | -3.18 | 4.02 | -3.3 | 5.53 | -1.79 | 5.15 | -2.17 | 7.32 | 4.15 | -3.17 | 4.02 | -3.3 | 5.53 | -1.79 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.51 | 5.16 | -0.35 | 4.84 | -0.67 | 5.45 | -0.06 | 9.97 | 4.46 | 5.51 | 5.17 | -0.34 | 4.84 | -0.67 | 5.45 | -0.06 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.28 | 3.77 | 0.49 | 3.69 | 0.41 | 3.04 | -0.24 | 1.40 | -1.88 | 3.28 | 3.77 | 0.49 | 3.69 | 0.41 | 3.04 | -0.24 |
There are only a few surprises here. One being Zack Greinke having estimators in line with his ERA despite the large velocity drop and increase in hard contact in a bad park.
Jesse Chavez has been more impressive than his ERA in his return to a major league rotation. He’s throwing his slider more often because maybe this is his last chance, but he has started strong before and then faded over the summer. Perhaps the Angels will just move him back to the bullpen at some point.
Jason Vargas is suddenly “(player-popup)Clayton Kershaw”:/players/clayton-kershaw-10905…or maybe just Rich Hill?
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.267 | 0.271 | 0.004 | 46.9% | 0.204 | 6.3% | 82.5% | 90.6 | 2.00% | 1.40% | 49 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 0.269 | 0.319 | 0.05 | 47.9% | 0.313 | 10.0% | 86.7% | 88.8 | 6.40% | 4.70% | 47 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.292 | 0.265 | -0.027 | 31.3% | 0.167 | 4.0% | 85.2% | 88.3 | 2.30% | 1.40% | 43 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.276 | 0.352 | 0.076 | 42.9% | 0.271 | 9.5% | 81.2% | 88.3 | 1.50% | 0.90% | 66 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.295 | 0.367 | 0.072 | 38.7% | 0.29 | 0.0% | 87.5% | 93.3 | 10.00% | 5.50% | 30 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.287 | 0.333 | 0.046 | 52.3% | 0.227 | 18.2% | 82.6% | 87 | 14.30% | 8.80% | 42 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.262 | 0.286 | 0.024 | 53.1% | 0.204 | 7.7% | 73.9% | 85.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 47 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.278 | 0.327 | 0.049 | 45.5% | 0.255 | 6.3% | 86.6% | 88.1 | 5.50% | 3.90% | 55 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.257 | 0.282 | 0.025 | 49.3% | 0.192 | 8.7% | 88.9% | 86.2 | 5.60% | 4.10% | 71 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.272 | 0.278 | 0.006 | 41.2% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 89.3% | 87.4 | 7.70% | 3.70% | 13 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.267 | 0.377 | 0.11 | 40.3% | 0.339 | 12.5% | 91.7% | 89.3 | 8.10% | 5.50% | 62 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.308 | 0.245 | -0.063 | 37.3% | 0.137 | 12.0% | 86.7% | 89.7 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 51 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.312 | ||||||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.251 | 0.304 | 0.053 | 42.1% | 0.14 | 8.0% | 90.4% | 87.6 | 8.90% | 6.30% | 56 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.258 | 0.306 | 0.048 | 26.9% | 0.288 | 13.0% | 90.7% | 91.9 | 13.50% | 10.60% | 52 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.278 | 0.317 | 0.039 | 39.7% | 0.254 | 22.7% | 84.1% | 87.7 | 8.30% | 5.60% | 60 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 42.6% | 0.241 | 16.7% | 85.6% | 88 | 3.70% | 2.80% | 54 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.296 | 0.301 | 0.005 | 45.9% | 0.189 | 15.4% | 85.0% | 90.7 | 6.80% | 5.00% | 73 |
Here’s the thing: league-wide BABIP is down to .282 this year. That’s a ridiculous 16 point decrease and the lowest of the Pitchf/x era (since 2002) by seven points! Sure, it’s early with a sample size only about 12% of the season, but we’re still talking about 5,000 innings already.
Part of it is the decrease in ground balls, part of it is the shift, but these things were happening a bit last year too. Last year, HR rate was way up (and it’s still there), but this year, this and not HRs or strikeouts is the new mind-blowing thing.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Amir Garrett (3) is a real boom or bust consideration tonight. Even without considering his immense success thus far, the Brewers boom or bust against most of the LHP they’ve seen so far. They’re either going to miss your drill you (or maybe even both – exposure to each side of this matchup may be warranted). The K potential for just $6.7K on DraftKings should make him a popular SP2 option on DraftKings, but I’ve often been wrong about these things this year. Check the projects later.
Value Tier Two
Jason Vargas (2) may not have completely re-invented himself, but appears to be doing enough differently to make a major positive difference. I never thought I’d be considering him at a cost of $8K or above, but Rich Hill and his curveball happened in his mid-30s too. Chicago is a power friendly park, but merely run neutral with temperatures expected to be cool tonight, which should keep it from leaving the park as often. We speculated on him a few spots further down last time out, but I’m curious to see how many believers there are tonight.
Value Tier Three
Jesse Chavez (5) is generating more swings and misses with a slider he is throwing more often and is facing a struggling offense in a favorable park. He also costs less than $7K on either site (less than $6K on FanDuel).
Chris Archer (1) is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, though FanDuel still has an unreasonable crush on Greinke. His hard contact has been more in terms of singles than HRs this year and that’s really made the difference in his ERA early. Expect his HR rate and BABIP to straighten out, but he’s probably the top upside guy on the board. While winds appear to be blowing in, Kevin has unfortunately identified this game as a major weather risk in his early report.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Francisco Liriano (4) comes with risk and a bit of an elevated cost on DraftKings (just below $10K), but has pitched very well after being roughed up in his first start and should be in a decent enough spot tonight. Though he has allowed 88% of his career HRs to RHBs, he still strikes them out at an above average rate and has reasonable career numbers against them.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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