Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, August 14th
What a depressing season this is becoming. Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw have already lost significant time, along with Carlos Correa, and now Bryce Harper follows. You’re MVPs this season may be more a question of who’s left than who’s best.
But this is a daily fantasy pitching article. Why are we talking about injured MVP candidates? Perhaps you haven’t looked at today’s slate yet? It’s an atrocious little 20 pitcher board to start the week. There’s Greinke, but he’s facing Houston. There’s Quintana, who costs $11.6K on DraftKings with his below average SwStr%. Fulmer is in Texas. In fact, three of tonight’s 10 games take place in Colorado, Arizona and Texas. Though it seems a bit pathetic to complain about pitching choices considering current real world events.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.57 | 5.36 | 39.6% | 0.94 | 5.01 | 5.52 | SFO | 83 | 83 | 76 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 7.3 | 3.79 | 4.67 | 28.0% | 0.96 | 5.53 | 3.69 | CHC | 101 | 93 | 87 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 2.4 | 4.39 | 3.5 | 35.5% | 1.01 | 5.57 | NYM | 109 | 94 | 106 | |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -3.9 | 4.3 | 5.77 | 51.1% | 1.39 | 3.74 | ATL | 91 | 86 | 79 | |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.5 | 3.97 | 5.76 | 41.0% | 1.13 | 4.3 | 4.86 | ARI | 105 | 100 | 88 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 5.4 | 4.87 | 5.61 | 46.3% | 1.13 | 4.79 | 3.26 | CLE | 99 | 102 | 62 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.5 | 4.35 | 5.56 | 33.9% | 1.03 | 4.84 | 7.05 | TOR | 93 | 91 | 100 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 7.2 | 4.78 | 5.86 | 37.6% | 0.93 | 5.19 | 3.57 | OAK | 111 | 103 | 106 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.2 | 4.17 | 5.89 | 39.7% | 0.91 | 4.36 | 4.58 | SDG | 89 | 87 | 89 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -11.2 | 4.75 | 5.46 | 36.9% | 0.93 | 5.38 | 5.6 | KAN | 90 | 91 | 118 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 3.2 | 3.95 | 6.25 | 42.1% | 0.96 | 3.79 | 4.15 | CIN | 93 | 90 | 138 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -1.8 | 4.34 | 6.05 | 38.9% | 1.39 | 4.63 | 4.21 | COL | 89 | 79 | 55 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -5.1 | 4.03 | 5.69 | 44.0% | 0.89 | 4.18 | 3.46 | SEA | 109 | 102 | 106 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.8 | 4.97 | 5.88 | 51.5% | 1.11 | 4.65 | 4.94 | DET | 88 | 122 | 88 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 1.7 | 4.17 | 6.36 | 49.4% | 1.11 | 3.98 | 5.04 | TEX | 106 | 98 | 120 |
| Nick Tepesch | TOR | -1.9 | 4.83 | 3.33 | 33.3% | 1.03 | 6.19 | 4.81 | TAM | 97 | 103 | 19 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | -1.6 | 4.77 | 4.67 | 44.2% | 1.01 | 4.4 | 3.89 | NYY | 114 | 113 | 100 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -5.4 | 4.34 | 4.28 | 37.8% | 0.91 | 4.87 | 4.8 | PHI | 77 | 84 | 67 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.3 | 4.19 | 5.71 | 47.1% | 1.13 | 4.13 | 3.04 | BOS | 93 | 91 | 83 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -3 | 5.01 | 6.34 | 46.6% | 0.94 | 4.79 | 5.14 | MIA | 91 | 95 | 90 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7.4 | 5.11 | 5.2 | 44.8% | 0.89 | 5.19 | 6.42 | BAL | 93 | 100 | 108 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.4 | 3.65 | 6.41 | 46.5% | 1.13 | 3.74 | 3.36 | HOU | 129 | 129 | 86 |
Asher Wojciechowski has struck out 11 of 43 over two starts since moving back into the rotation, although he did allow two HRs in his last start. He has a 25.3 K% on the season, third on the main board, with around 60% of his innings coming in a starting role. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (28 GB%), which could be an issue at Wrigley, but he has just an 85.7 mph aEV with a hard hit rate just below 30% and the Cubs have been mediocre at best against RHP.
Caleb Smith has a 17+ K-BB% in 160 AAA innings over the last two seasons and has struck out 11 of 47 big league batters, though his two starts each went less than four innings. He has never had a minor league ground ball rate exceed 43% at any level of the minor leagues, which may not be a favorable Yankee Stadium trait, but the Mets do have just an 82 sOPS+ against LHP (second worst) and a 17.7 K-BB% vs LHP, while he has just an 83.9 mph aEV in 10 innings.
NOTE: Luis Cessa will be the starter tonight. He is not a pitcher of interest with a 9.6 K-BB% over 101 career innings.
Jakob Junis threw eight one run innings with seven strikeouts at the Mariners eight days ago. It was the best of his seven major league starts, over which he has a reasonable 10.8 K-BB%, but 37.6 GB% and 40.4 Hard% with a board high 88.8 mph aEV. Perhaps that profile can play in Kansas City and even Oakland, where he pitches tonight. The A’s have a legitimate offense with real power (23.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week), but strike out a quarter of the time at home and against RHPs. He has struck out 30% of AAA batters in 71 innings this season and 24.1% of AA batters in 119 AA innings last season, but otherwise never above 20% at any other professional stop.
Jerad Eickhoff recorded an out in the seventh inning (but did not complete it) for the first time since his second start of the season last time out. Everything about him continues to scream league average arm. This is not terrible, especially when he brings his 38.8 GB% to San Diego (88 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers). The Padres strike out a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP.
Jose Quintana has allowed six HRs over his last four starts and struck out just three in his most recent. While his estimators are nearly a run below his ERA in his first month as a Cub, they may be over-estimating a 28.3 K% on an 8.8 SwStr%. He has a 25.7 Hard-Soft% since the break, but does have a long track record of being a good pitcher, which we are in short supply of tonight, especially in reasonable situations. The Reds are actually the hottest offense on the board with a 25 HR/FB and 14.8 BB% over the last week.
Kevin Gausman struck out six of 24 Angels in his last start, allowing four runs in 5.1 innings to the Angels. It was his lowest strikeout total since he accumulated just five and allowed four HRs to the Cubs exactly a month ago today. While overall results have wavered between great and terrible, he’s struck out at least seven in eight of his last 11 starts and his 29.3 K% over the last month is best of any full time starter on tonight’s board. While the Mariners are an above average offense, the park in Seattle has a bit of a muting effect.
Michael Fulmer has succeeded in his sophomore season more on the basis of weak contact (85.8 mph aEV, 28.9% 95+ mph EV) than strikeouts. However, he does own a league average SwStr% and even a much higher one over the last month (11.8%) despite a further drop in strikeout rate. That it’s been at least 11% in two of three starts seems like good news, even though he’s gotten hammered in two of those three starts with a hard hit rate above 35% in all three of them. He’s going to need to miss bats against a suddenly hot Texas offense in an always hot park. They have a 17 HR/FB at home and against RHP, but do strike out 23.8% of the time against RHP.
Zack Greinke is in a terrible spot hosting the Astros. The absolute worst spot on the board even with a game at Coors. However, we can’t fully abandon the top strikeout rate on this board. He’s struck out 25 of his last 78 batters, though has allowed nine runs in his last 12.2 innings.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jake Odorizzi (.240 – 74.1% – 17.2) did not allow a HR for only the second time in 19 starts last time out. He lasted just four innings. While he displays a league average strikeout rate, he hasn’t exceeded five in eight starts. His 8.4% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board.
Ty Blach (.297 – 67.8% – 7.3) has an unsustainable HR rate, even in San Francisco, where he happens not to be pitching tonight. Although Miami is not a power friendly park, tell that to Giancarlo Stanton. Despite his residence in this lineup, the Marlins still have just a 2.7 Hard-Soft% against RHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Collin McHugh has struck out 22 of 94 batters with a double digit SwStr% in all four starts this season, but just a 26.2 GB% and 9.7 Soft%. He’s allowed four HRs despite just 3.2% Barrels/BBE, which would make one think he might be getting a bit unlucky. The Diamondbacks have a 23.2 K% vs RHP and 27.7 K% over the last seven days, but have a 110 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers and he has to face them in Arizona (23.4 Hard-Soft% at home).
Julio Teheran has a road ERA literally half his home ERA this season. It’s really not about the HRs though, as they’re nearly evenly split (15 to 13). It’s about the strand rate over 20 points higher on the road. As unintimidating as the Colorado lineup is (15.1 K-BB%, 9.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), one would not expect him to be very successful at Coors.
Rafael Montero looked like he might have something interesting going for a while, but even though he has a league average K% this season and over the last month, control issues have cropped up again in two of his last three starts and he’s allowed seven of his nine HRs this season over his last four, though his 84 mph aEV is still second lowest on the board with only his opponent tonight being lower over just 10 major league innings. Yankee Stadium is a difficult place to get back on track.
Travis Wood has the top matchup on the board. He’s allowed four HRs in three starts as a Padre with just a 23.3 GB%.
Chad Bettis had just a 6.0 K-BB% in four AAA rehab starts. While it’s great to see him back, it’s difficult to employ him immediately inside Coors, even though it’s just the Braves.
Nick Tepesch is even this high up because the Rays have a 37.6 K% over the last week. That has to be the highest rate I’ve ever seen over a week long stretch for a team.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.6% | Home | 19.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 25.3% | 5.0% | Road | 17.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 2.3% |
| Caleb Smith | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.4% | 10.6% | Home | 25.0% | 18.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.3% | 7.2% | Home | 16.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.9% | Road | 20.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.4% | Home | 14.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.6% | Road | 19.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.3% | Road | 22.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.6% | Road | 20.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.3% | Home | 19.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 9.9% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.7% | Home | 24.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.2% | Road | 19.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.4% | 7.3% | Road | 21.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 6.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.2% | 8.4% | Home | 13.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 5.3% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.0% | 6.0% | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Nick Tepesch | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.7% | 5.6% | Home | 17.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 21.8% | 12.7% | Road | 24.2% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 20.9% | 10.0% | Home | 16.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.3% | 9.2% | Road | 22.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 12.3% | 5.4% | Road | 10.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 3.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.1% | 10.2% | Home | 16.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 11.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.9% | 5.6% | Home | 23.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.0% | LH | 18.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 10.0% | RH | 22.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Road | 21.2% | 8.2% | LH | 24.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 19.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 15.7% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.4% | 9.6% | RH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.1% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 9.3% | RH | 19.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.5% | 8.9% | RH | 20.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.6% | 9.5% | RH | 25.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.3% | RH | 25.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.8% |
| Royals | Road | 21.1% | 6.3% | RH | 20.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 8.2% | LH | 21.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 14.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.4% | 7.8% | RH | 22.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 8.6% | RH | 20.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 8.8% | LH | 18.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.3% | RH | 23.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 12.3% |
| Rays | Road | 25.4% | 8.7% | RH | 25.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 37.6% | 6.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 10.3% | RH | 22.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | LH | 21.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.3% | 9.3% | RH | 19.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.5% | LH | 19.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.9% | 6.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 3.4% |
| Astros | Road | 17.6% | 8.6% | RH | 17.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 10.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2017 | 36.9% | 10.8% | 19.5% | Home | 35.1% | 7.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 2017 | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.2% | Road | 41.9% | 18.2% | 30.3% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Smith | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.4% | 10.0% | -3.2% | 2017 | 19.4% | 10.0% | -3.2% | Home | 22.2% | 25.0% | -22.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 2017 | Home | 29.7% | 11.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 28.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2017 | 27.4% | 12.1% | 17.7% | Road | 34.0% | 12.6% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.1% | 14.7% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 2017 | 35.0% | 12.8% | 19.5% | Home | 31.9% | 8.5% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 46.3% | 12.5% | 41.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 33.9% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 2017 | 37.9% | 17.2% | 22.5% | Road | 33.3% | 13.7% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 40.4% | 14.8% | 25.7% | 2017 | 40.4% | 14.8% | 25.7% | Road | 38.4% | 22.9% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 2017 | 32.8% | 9.7% | 18.6% | Road | 33.5% | 11.5% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 6.7% | 21.6% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.6% | 13.8% | 9.6% | Home | 29.4% | 15.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 18.5% | 7.7% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.7% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 2017 | 33.2% | 14.5% | 15.9% | Home | 34.8% | 17.9% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 30.8% | 25.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 2017 | 31.8% | 17.4% | 10.6% | Road | 32.6% | 12.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.8% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 2017 | 34.4% | 15.0% | 16.0% | Road | 33.7% | 15.3% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.4% | 15.3% | 2017 | 35.2% | 13.8% | 20.3% | Home | 31.4% | 12.3% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 26.3% | 11.9% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 2017 | 29.8% | 7.9% | 12.4% | Road | 27.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 20.0% | 38.1% |
| Nick Tepesch | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 42.9% | 26.3% | 31.0% | 2017 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | Home | 50.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 27.7% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 2017 | 26.6% | 13.0% | 8.9% | Road | 34.0% | 25.8% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 42.9% | 3.4% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 2017 | 28.4% | 10.4% | 7.9% | Home | 31.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 20.0% | 12.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 2017 | 34.7% | 15.4% | 19.7% | Road | 32.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 16.7% | 2.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 31.6% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 2017 | 31.8% | 7.3% | 12.3% | Road | 33.5% | 12.1% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 5.0% | 28.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 2017 | 33.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | Home | 30.2% | 13.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 21.4% | 9.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 2017 | 35.6% | 14.3% | 14.6% | Home | 37.2% | 13.1% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 23.1% | 28.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 30.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | LH | 28.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.6% | 17.0% | 14.2% | RH | 31.0% | 15.1% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 14.0% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Road | 36.4% | 15.8% | 19.4% | LH | 35.3% | 14.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 21.5% | 14.0% |
| Braves | Road | 31.3% | 12.4% | 13.1% | RH | 30.6% | 11.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 8.9% | 10.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.1% | 16.4% | 23.4% | RH | 35.2% | 14.9% | 17.9% | L7Days | 36.5% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Indians | Road | 34.7% | 11.6% | 18.2% | RH | 33.7% | 11.9% | 16.5% | L7Days | 30.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.7% | 14.4% | 10.2% | RH | 30.4% | 14.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.5% | 15.7% | 10.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.3% | 15.1% | 17.6% | RH | 33.8% | 14.6% | 17.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 16.4% | 23.8% |
| Padres | Home | 29.0% | 12.6% | 6.9% | RH | 29.6% | 14.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 36.7% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| Royals | Road | 32.1% | 13.9% | 13.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| Reds | Road | 30.7% | 14.0% | 11.3% | LH | 29.7% | 16.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 34.4% | 25.0% | 16.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.7% | 16.4% | 13.8% | RH | 30.1% | 13.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | RH | 30.4% | 12.4% | 12.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 14.1% | 12.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.6% | 12.3% | 16.9% | LH | 39.5% | 17.3% | 23.4% | L7Days | 38.5% | 10.5% | 21.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.5% | 17.3% | 18.5% | RH | 34.5% | 17.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 35.0% | 18.9% | 20.5% |
| Rays | Road | 32.4% | 16.6% | 12.7% | RH | 34.9% | 17.0% | 17.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.3% | 19.0% | 9.9% | RH | 31.3% | 16.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | LH | 28.6% | 13.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.0% | 10.0% | 17.3% | RH | 33.8% | 10.8% | 15.9% | L7Days | 32.9% | 10.9% | 15.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.4% | 15.1% | 9.8% | LH | 26.8% | 13.4% | 2.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.6% | 13.5% | 15.2% | RH | 32.3% | 15.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 11.4% | 16.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.7% | 15.2% | 15.7% | RH | 33.5% | 15.7% | 16.1% | L7Days | 35.9% | 9.8% | 22.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 16.4% | 9.5% | 1.73 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.89 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 25.3% | 10.8% | 2.34 | 30.6% | 10.6% | 2.89 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 23.4% | 13.9% | 1.68 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 1.68 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | ||||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 23.4% | 14.1% | 1.66 | 23.4% | 14.1% | 1.66 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.35 | 17.4% | 8.2% | 2.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.0% | 11.2% | 1.79 | 19.1% | 11.8% | 1.62 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 | 28.1% | 7.3% | 3.85 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.33 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 2.48 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 19.3% | 9.7% | 1.99 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 1.50 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 25.4% | 8.5% | 2.99 | 28.3% | 8.8% | 3.22 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.7% | 9.1% | 1.95 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 1.98 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.1% | 10.7% | 1.97 | 29.3% | 14.0% | 2.09 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.7% | 7.7% | 1.91 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 1.34 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.5% | 9.9% | 1.77 | 15.2% | 11.8% | 1.29 |
| Nick Tepesch | TOR | 17.1% | 6.6% | 2.59 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 2.12 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.17 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 1.95 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 18.0% | 6.9% | 2.61 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.89 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.6% | 8.5% | 3.01 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 2.80 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.8% | 6.7% | 1.76 | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.21 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.2% | 7.9% | 2.05 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 1.67 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.1% | 13.0% | 2.16 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 2.34 |
Jose Quintana absolutely can’t support a strikeout rate above a quarter of batters faced.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 5.43 | 5.13 | -0.3 | 5.33 | -0.1 | 4.87 | -0.56 | 6.44 | 1.01 | 3.48 | 4.8 | 1.32 | 4.86 | 1.38 | 4.53 | 1.05 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 4.23 | 3.79 | -0.44 | 4.47 | 0.24 | 4.5 | 0.27 | 4.22 | -0.01 | 2.01 | 3.19 | 1.18 | 3.85 | 1.84 | 3.36 | 1.35 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 7.2 | 4.39 | -2.81 | 4.22 | -2.98 | 3.74 | -3.46 | 5.70 | -1.50 | 7.2 | 4.39 | -2.81 | 4.22 | -2.98 | 3.74 | -3.46 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | ||||||||||||||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 5.32 | 4.54 | -0.78 | 5.03 | -0.29 | 4.73 | -0.59 | 4.30 | -1.02 | 5.32 | 4.54 | -0.78 | 5.03 | -0.29 | 4.73 | -0.59 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 5.03 | 4.94 | -0.09 | 4.83 | -0.2 | 4.72 | -0.31 | 6.40 | 1.37 | 4.38 | 4.69 | 0.31 | 4.4 | 0.02 | 3.87 | -0.51 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.38 | 4.84 | 0.46 | 5.04 | 0.66 | 5.65 | 1.27 | 5.12 | 0.74 | 3 | 5.58 | 2.58 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 5.54 | 2.54 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 4.7 | 4.78 | 0.08 | 5.35 | 0.65 | 5.55 | 0.85 | 4.76 | 0.06 | 1 | 3.19 | 2.19 | 3.84 | 2.84 | 1.47 | 0.47 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.45 | 4.65 | 0.2 | 4.76 | 0.31 | 4.14 | -0.31 | 5.84 | 1.39 | 3.94 | 4.71 | 0.77 | 4.99 | 1.05 | 4.52 | 0.58 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.72 | 4.97 | -0.75 | 5.37 | -0.35 | 5.41 | -0.31 | 7.30 | 1.58 | 8.59 | 5.6 | -2.99 | 6.55 | -2.04 | 7.71 | -0.88 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.42 | 3.98 | -0.44 | 3.95 | -0.47 | 4.06 | -0.36 | 4.16 | -0.26 | 4.2 | 3.38 | -0.82 | 3.39 | -0.81 | 4.27 | 0.07 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.25 | 4.97 | -0.28 | 5.07 | -0.18 | 5.67 | 0.42 | 4.94 | -0.31 | 7 | 4.42 | -2.58 | 4.46 | -2.54 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.21 | 4.54 | -0.67 | 4.42 | -0.79 | 4.61 | -0.6 | 5.04 | -0.17 | 3.5 | 3.49 | -0.01 | 3.18 | -0.32 | 4.28 | 0.78 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.18 | 5.04 | -0.14 | 4.72 | -0.46 | 4.74 | -0.44 | 5.40 | 0.22 | 6.57 | 5.16 | -1.41 | 5 | -1.57 | 5.84 | -0.73 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.59 | 4.32 | 0.73 | 4.11 | 0.52 | 3.43 | -0.16 | 3.14 | -0.45 | 5.47 | 4.37 | -1.1 | 4.21 | -1.26 | 4.27 | -1.2 |
| Nick Tepesch | TOR | 9 | 5.05 | -3.95 | 6.19 | -2.81 | 11.31 | 2.31 | 4.04 | -4.96 | 10.38 | 4.81 | -5.57 | 5.68 | -4.7 | 10.99 | 0.61 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 6.06 | 4.59 | -1.47 | 4.73 | -1.33 | 4.64 | -1.42 | 5.90 | -0.16 | 6.49 | 4.6 | -1.89 | 5 | -1.49 | 6.29 | -0.2 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 6.71 | 4.95 | -1.76 | 5.36 | -1.35 | 4.79 | -1.92 | 6.50 | -0.21 | 7.56 | 4.41 | -3.15 | 4.72 | -2.84 | 4.9 | -2.66 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.79 | 3.88 | -0.91 | 3.61 | -1.18 | 3.8 | -0.99 | 4.44 | -0.35 | 3.25 | 3.89 | 0.64 | 3.47 | 0.22 | 2.99 | -0.26 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.15 | 5.08 | 0.93 | 4.71 | 0.56 | 3.83 | -0.32 | 5.86 | 1.71 | 3 | 4.82 | 1.82 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 3.25 | 0.25 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.38 | 5.18 | -0.2 | 5.06 | -0.32 | 5.13 | -0.25 | 5.23 | -0.15 | 4.29 | 6.4 | 2.11 | 6.77 | 2.48 | 7.52 | 3.23 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.14 | 3.31 | 0.17 | 3.22 | 0.08 | 3.29 | 0.15 | 2.56 | -0.58 | 4.13 | 3.62 | -0.51 | 3.59 | -0.54 | 3.78 | -0.35 |
Kevin Gausman has a .360 BABIP. He allows a lot of hard contact, generates few popups, and his defense does him few favors. I actually thought it was his HR rate that was going to be the problem, but his 15.0 HR/FB is nearly league average this year.
Michael Fulmer has a .275 BABIP and 7.9 HR/FB, somewhat offset by just a 66.7 LOB%. His BABIP profile is average, but he had been generating a lot of weak contact until recently.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.305 | 0.012 | 41.5% | 0.191 | 16.2% | 85.6% | 86.2 | 6.70% | 33.80% | 195 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.293 | 0.270 | -0.023 | 28.0% | 0.169 | 20.0% | 86.2% | 85.7 | 8.10% | 32.30% | 124 |
| Caleb Smith | NYY | 0.290 | 0.367 | 0.077 | 35.5% | 0.323 | 10.0% | 79.7% | 83.9 | 6.50% | 25.80% | 31 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.302 | ||||||||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.305 | 0.01 | 26.2% | 0.197 | 6.1% | 79.4% | 86.9 | 3.20% | 35.50% | 62 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.009 | 45.4% | 0.218 | 7.7% | 88.2% | 86.5 | 5.70% | 38.20% | 123 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.240 | -0.044 | 30.3% | 0.241 | 9.7% | 81.8% | 86.8 | 8.40% | 34.90% | 298 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.299 | 0.283 | -0.016 | 37.6% | 0.165 | 9.8% | 87.3% | 88.8 | 6.60% | 37.50% | 136 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.316 | 0.019 | 38.8% | 0.216 | 8.2% | 88.1% | 88 | 5.80% | 33.60% | 345 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.292 | 0.293 | 0.001 | 36.7% | 0.16 | 13.1% | 83.2% | 85.9 | 5.30% | 29.80% | 282 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.291 | 0.008 | 43.0% | 0.192 | 10.9% | 88.8% | 87.5 | 6.70% | 37.50% | 371 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.274 | -0.018 | 39.5% | 0.207 | 6.2% | 87.4% | 86.2 | 7.50% | 31.10% | 415 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.360 | 0.045 | 42.4% | 0.234 | 8.6% | 84.5% | 87.8 | 8.70% | 34.40% | 413 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.337 | 0.048 | 45.5% | 0.251 | 6.5% | 90.5% | 87.1 | 6.10% | 36.20% | 423 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.275 | -0.034 | 49.7% | 0.21 | 10.2% | 88.1% | 85.8 | 4.80% | 28.90% | 436 |
| Nick Tepesch | TOR | 0.307 | 0.409 | 0.102 | 38.5% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 88.2% | ||||
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.381 | 0.061 | 46.7% | 0.179 | 8.7% | 83.9% | 84 | 5.40% | 28.60% | 203 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.346 | 0.039 | 37.8% | 0.213 | 9.1% | 88.3% | 87.9 | 5.30% | 35.30% | 190 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.343 | 0.04 | 46.9% | 0.221 | 10.6% | 87.5% | 88.6 | 8.20% | 38.20% | 340 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.297 | -0.02 | 45.4% | 0.225 | 8.0% | 89.0% | 85.4 | 4.10% | 31.70% | 441 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.279 | 0.287 | 0.008 | 45.3% | 0.194 | 18.3% | 88.0% | 87.4 | 6.70% | 33.60% | 345 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.278 | -0.016 | 46.5% | 0.171 | 10.0% | 84.9% | 86.2 | 7.40% | 28.60% | 391 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Asher Wojciechowski has been competent through each of his two starts since being reinserted into the rotation and at less than $7K, that’s about the best you can ask for today. He can miss a few bats, but has allowed eight HRs in six starts.
Value Tier Two
Kevin Gausman (2) still has his blowup outings, but is missing so many bats that his upside is impossible to ignore in a favorable park for less than $9K tonight. His 8.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board though.
Value Tier Three
Zack Greinke (1) may have fallen off our board on a normal day. The matchup with Houston is terrible, but at least they’ve looked like a more normal offense over the last week. The highest strikeout rate on the board is too much to ignore tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jakob Junis has shown some ability to miss bats the last two seasons in the minors and is coming off his best major league start in a spot where he might be able to accumulate some strikeouts. However, he also allows a lot of hard contact in the air and while Oakland would seem an ideal park for such a profile, the A’s have been able to punish the baseball this year.
Jerad Eickhoff is unexciting and not likely to draw a lot of value beyond an $8K price tag, but a league average pitcher in a great spot is a strong proposition today.
Jose Quintana is someone I feel obligated to keep in play tonight than someone I want to use. He’s a name in a reasonable spot (though the Reds have been hot). I can’t even imagine paying his DraftKings cost on a normal slate though. He costs $3.2K less on FanDuel, where he certainly bumps up a tier, if not two.
Michael Fulmer has been missing a few more bats, though it’s not showing in his strikeout rate recently. It’s generally not ideal to have an upward spike in your hard contact rate the few starts before visiting Texas, but the Rangers strike out often enough that we’re going to have to consider him for $8.5K or less tonight. Late Note: I had not realized that Fulmer is making his return from a two week DL stint with an elbow issue tonight. That, in addition to the increase in hard contact leading up to his DL stint makes him more of a risk tonight. I’d probably be more inclined to stay clear of him considering a potential workload limitation on top of recent issues.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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