Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, July 17th
Depending on your perspective, this is either going to be very hard or very easy. There are 12 games on Monday night (we’re omitting the lone early start), but very few arms worth your daily fantasy interest. The ability to narrow down to so few arms will make this a shorter article than usual for nearly a full slate, but perhaps difficult for players look to alternate from the chalk. Perhaps you do that with your offense with quite a few pitchers who deserve to be attacked tonight.
Something I’ve been meaning to mention for a while now is that while you get general stats based on team wide performance under certain circumstances here, we don’t really know what the actual lineups are going to be yet. Once a lineup is announced, you can pull up PlateIQ and see the performance of the actual confirmed batters against right or left-handed pitching, including total lineup wOBA, ISO, strikeout and walk rates along with batted balls. It’s usually not a significant difference from what you see here, but may be another small edge available to you.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 1.8 | 5.15 | 5. | 44.5% | 1.04 | 4.7 | 4.33 | NYY | 100 | 84 | 55 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -3.5 | 4.29 | 5.79 | 45.2% | 0.91 | 4.22 | 2.72 | NYM | 96 | 104 | 153 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.5 | 4.83 | 5.33 | 47.7% | 1.02 | 5.28 | 5.39 | BAL | 91 | 93 | 70 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 6.6 | 4.91 | 5.68 | 33.4% | 0.94 | 6.04 | 4.38 | HOU | 123 | 122 | 124 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -1.3 | 4.13 | 5.22 | 44.8% | 0.97 | 4.13 | 3.25 | PIT | 91 | 90 | 97 |
| Bryan Mitchell | NYY | 1.1 | 5.08 | 4.31 | 48.8% | 1.04 | 5 | MIN | 100 | 99 | 85 | |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -3.2 | 4.7 | 4.88 | 43.1% | 0.97 | 5.5 | 5.44 | MIL | 100 | 97 | 83 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.77 | 5.53 | 42.3% | 1.02 | 4.83 | TEX | 82 | 98 | 51 | |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -12.2 | 4.44 | 5.02 | 47.7% | 0.93 | 3.44 | 4.35 | TAM | 100 | 114 | 93 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 7 | 4.28 | 5.62 | 36.3% | 1.13 | 4.75 | TOR | 93 | 93 | 70 | |
| German Marquez | COL | -4.2 | 4.47 | 5.36 | 44.7% | 1.39 | 4.18 | 4.02 | SDG | 72 | 84 | 131 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.7 | 4.28 | 5.6 | 34.6% | 0.93 | 4.8 | 5.54 | OAK | 111 | 104 | 120 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.8 | 4.55 | 5.68 | 37.3% | 1.06 | 4.53 | 4.87 | DET | 84 | 115 | 135 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.1 | 4.13 | 5.89 | 40.3% | 0.94 | 4.33 | 2.48 | MIA | 88 | 95 | 62 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.2 | 3.54 | 6.23 | 48.2% | 1 | 3.63 | 5.2 | ATL | 91 | 103 | 120 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.8 | 4.5 | 5.74 | 40.2% | 1.06 | 4.93 | 5.08 | KAN | 84 | 85 | 58 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0 | 4.12 | 5.91 | 41.4% | 0.93 | 4.22 | 3.34 | SFO | 75 | 80 | 107 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.5 | 4.28 | 6.08 | 39.1% | 1 | 4.41 | 4.49 | CHC | 94 | 92 | 178 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -5.8 | 3.44 | 5.69 | 55.9% | 0.94 | 2.71 | 4.43 | SEA | 97 | 107 | 105 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.8 | 3.97 | 5.72 | 61.7% | 1.39 | 3.72 | 0.8 | COL | 82 | 76 | 93 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.8 | 3.62 | 6.35 | 60.6% | 1.13 | 3.45 | 4.42 | BOS | 90 | 92 | 42 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -0.9 | 4.57 | 5.75 | 38.2% | 0.93 | 4.52 | 5.71 | CLE | 101 | 102 | 38 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 4.1 | 4.89 | 5.36 | 42.8% | 0.94 | 4.74 | 4.05 | PHI | 73 | 82 | 91 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -1.4 | 4.5 | 5.07 | 47.6% | 0.91 | 4.2 | 3.61 | STL | 89 | 98 | 82 |
Brent Suter has struck out 13 of 48 with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over two starts this month. In 27.1 total innings this season, he has a 15.0 K-BB% with excellent contact management (3.8 Hard-Soft%), including board lows 84.5 mph aEV and 25.3% 95+ mph EV. We don’t have contact authority for the minors and despite a 19.5 K-BB% in 36.2 AAA innings this year, he’s never generated a 20% strikeout rate above low A ball previously. At nearly 28 years-old, the 31st round draft pick is not a prospect. However, as a LHP, he’s in a strong spot in Pittsburgh, not due their 8.5 K-BB% vs LHP, but because of their 9.5 HR/FB at home.
Eduardo Rodriguez returns from a knee injury suffered slipping on step in the Baltimore bullpen over a month ago. He then went out an allowed four HRs, but had previously been having a breakout season with a 17.8 K-BB%. While he walked five in the second of three rehab starts, he put up zeroes in his other two, while striking out seven of 25 AAA Blue Jays in his most recent outing, while pitching into the seventh inning, suggesting there may not be major limitations here. He faces the major league component of that organization in his return tonight. Toronto has been a disappointment and shown little power against LHP (12.7 HR/FB), but a dangerous park may neutralize the matchup.
Jerad Eickhoff missed a few weeks and then returned to have his best start of the season going into the break (5 IP – 0 ER – 8 K) against the Padres. Without getting too excited about that, he’s in another strong spot in Miami, against an offense with 0.0 HR/FB since the break, and has been able to avoid barrels (5.7% of BBEs) despite relatively hard contact (88.3 mph aEV). His peripherals otherwise mark him as somewhat of a league average arm (11.4 K-BB%).
Jon Lester is going to be the easy one today…he’s done what in his last two starts?? (5.2 IP – 15 H – 16 R – 9 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 6 K – 37 BF). The Rays and the Padres have destroyed him. He’s thrown more fastballs in these two starts because he had difficulty throwing strike one. Velocity is not down further, so perhaps the break is what he needed and he can get back on track tonight. It’s hard to even call Atlanta a favorable spot right now either. It’s a tough park that has played power friendly and they’ve been above average against LHP.
Lance McCullers was lit up (sort of) in his last start and has now allowed eight ERs (nine total) over his last 9.2 innings, striking out just nine of 48 batters, but with a 12.2 SwStr%. However, he has a 62.9 GB% and -8.6 Hard-Soft% over those two starts. For the season, he has a 20.9 K-BB% (10th) and a league leading 63 GB%. There doesn’t appear to be anything too concerning considering the SwStr%, batted ball and contact rates and that’s fantastic because he’s not an arm we can afford to be concerned with on tonight’s slate. He hosts a solid Seattle offense in a power friendly park that plays slightly pitcher friendly overall.
Luis Perdomo has the highest ground ball rate in the majors (67.1%) among those with at least 80 innings pitched in addition to a nearly league average K% and SwStr%. Ground balls do not leave the park even at Coors and he has allowed barrels on just 5.1% of BBEs. While we can’t call any matchup in this park favorable, the Rockies have the worst offense in the majors against RHP (15.2 K-BB%, 9.1 Hard-Soft%).
Marcus Stroman is the major league leader in ground ball rate (60.9%) among those with at least 100 innings pitched, which he complements with a league average 20.4 K%. Like Perdomo, he does not have any particular proficiency for stifling contact (30 Hard%, 88.3 mph aEV), which drives his BABIP above .300. He’s in a difficult park against an offense that does not strike out much tonight, but the Red Sox are not an overall difficult matchup, having exhibited very little power this year (8.6 HR/FB at home, 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Adalberto Mejia (.282 – 77.8% – 15.1) and his double digit walk rate might have a case to be made if he were still missing bats at a reasonable rate because the Yankees played 16 innings Saturday, followed by a Sunday double-header, including the night game on ESPN before traveling to Minnesota and they are not very good against LHP (24.1 K%, 7.6 Hard-Soft%).
Jason Vargas (.276 – 84.7% – 7.9) does not have a single start against his division rival Tigers this year. They’ve actually been a poor offense against fly ball pitchers this year (92 sOPS+) despite all the hard contact (25.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). He hasn’t struck out more than four in any of his last four starts though.
Andrew Cashner (.282 – 74.8% – 7.4) has allowed four unearned runs (11%) and has just a 1.2 K-BB%.
Ariel Miranda (.220 – 78.7% – 13.3) faces Houston.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Josh Tomlin allowed eight of his 17 HRs this season in a five start stretch going into his last start where he did not allow one. This is a pitcher with a HR rate above 15% in each of the last four seasons now. He remains in the majors despite that because he doesn’t walk anybody, but rarely strikes out enough batters to be worth the risk in a daily fantasy sense, which is once again the case tonight even in potentially one of the top matchups on the board in San Francisco. While the Giants have atrocious power numbers and just an 84 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers, they don’t strike out often.
Zack Wheeler had his first decent effort in a month (with a short DL stint thrown in) against these Cardinals last time out (6 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 5 K). While his velocity has remained stable all season, he did struggle with greatly with contact (50 Hard%, five HRs) in two starts before getting a two week break, but has a -3.5 Hard-Soft% in two starts since returning. Consistently getting ahead and throwing strikes has been an issue all season and throughout his career though and often limits his outings even when they’re not bad overall. He’s completed six innings in just seven of 15 starts and is still an arm the Mets plan on being cautious with after missing two seasons.
Adam Wainwright has struck out 23 of his last 76 batters without exceeding a 9.3 SwStr% in any of those three starts. He has been a solid contact manager with an 85.8 mph aEV and allowing barrels on fewer than 5% of batted balls. He also shut down these Mets for two outs into the seventh inning in his last start nine days ago. They usually don’t strike out that often and have been one of the hotter offenses in the league out of the break. A cost above $8K is kind of absurd at this point in his career.
German Marquez has the worst matchup on the board hosting the Padres. That sounds odd to say in any park, but they’ve been better than the Rockies against RHP.
Julio Teheran did not allow a HR for the first time in 10 starts last time out. He allowed 15 over that nine game span, striking out four or fewer six times. The Cubs are yet another below average offense against fly ball pitchers today (95 sOPS+).
Jake Odorizzi has failed to allow a HR in just one start this season and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven starts.
Tom Koehler combines a reasonable strikeout rate with an 11.4 BB% and 12 HRs in 10 starts. Unfortunate because he may have the top matchup on the board when hosting the Phillies.
Chad Kuhl has just 10 strikeouts against seven walks over his last three starts with just a 7.9 SwStr%.
Matt Moore did have this narrative that he pitched well at home dispelled over his last three home outings (13.2 IP – 26 H – 14 ER – 3 HR – 6 BB – 9 K – 73 BF). Cleveland has a 6.2 K-BB% vs LHP.
Chris Tillman has allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts with arguments that he’s been pitching injured for a majority of the season.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.9% | 11.0% | Home | 19.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 7.0% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.2% | Road | 18.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 10.1% | Road | 15.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.4% | Road | 15.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.4% | Road | 18.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 4.3% |
| Bryan Mitchell | Yankees | L2 Years | 14.5% | 11.7% | Road | 13.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.2% | 8.2% | Home | 15.0% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 16.2% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.6% | 9.0% | Home | 19.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.8% | 3.7% | Home | 18.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.1% | Home | 22.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.4% | Home | 17.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.5% | Road | 19.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 6.0% | Home | 18.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.2% | Road | 19.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 4.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 6.6% | Road | 24.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 10.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 6.1% | Road | 15.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.8% | 2.8% | Road | 16.9% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.6% | 7.2% | Home | 20.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 11.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.2% | Home | 31.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.4% | Road | 18.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.3% | Road | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.6% | Home | 21.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.6% | 10.9% | Home | 19.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 13.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.6% | Home | 22.5% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 22.4% | 9.5% | LH | 24.1% | 10.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 6.8% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | RH | 18.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.4% | 7.2% | RH | 22.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.8% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 8.0% | LH | 17.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 9.3% | LH | 19.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 31.0% | 12.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.0% | 9.0% | RH | 25.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.9% | 7.9% | RH | 23.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 3.9% |
| Rays | Road | 25.6% | 8.7% | RH | 24.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.0% | LH | 21.5% | 10.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 10.9% |
| Padres | Road | 27.2% | 7.0% | RH | 26.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.4% | 9.4% | RH | 25.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 31.4% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.3% | 9.3% | LH | 19.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 13.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.7% | 7.6% | RH | 20.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 3.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 7.1% | LH | 19.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 2.8% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 6.6% | RH | 20.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 9.6% | RH | 22.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 13.7% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.6% |
| Indians | Road | 18.7% | 9.5% | LH | 16.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 7.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.0% | 7.5% | RH | 23.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 12.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 4.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 33.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 2017 | 32.7% | 15.1% | 11.6% | Home | 36.2% | 17.4% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 29.9% | 12.0% | 8.8% | Road | 32.6% | 18.8% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 2017 | 29.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | Road | 33.8% | 10.5% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 28.3% | 13.3% | 5.5% | Road | 31.5% | 13.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 22.2% | -14.3% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 2017 | 22.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | Road | 25.3% | 14.8% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Mitchell | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 2017 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 5.4% | Road | 25.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.8% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 2017 | 32.6% | 10.1% | 16.9% | Home | 34.4% | 13.2% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 35.9% | 17.5% | 16.9% | Home | 32.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.6% | 25.8% | 17.3% | 2017 | 34.6% | 25.8% | 17.3% | Home | 36.6% | 25.0% | 24.4% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 20.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2017 | 28.9% | 12.9% | 11.3% | Home | 27.0% | 15.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | |||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 35.0% | 10.2% | 20.1% | 2017 | 36.6% | 9.2% | 21.3% | Home | 31.2% | 11.9% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 2017 | 37.4% | 18.3% | 22.0% | Road | 33.1% | 14.1% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 56.3% | 25.0% | 31.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 2017 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | Home | 29.7% | 5.2% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 55.6% | 30.0% | 33.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 9.3% | 18.4% | Road | 33.3% | 10.6% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.5% | 6.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 15.8% | 4.2% | Road | 27.1% | 14.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 42.9% | 25.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 2017 | 38.6% | 16.8% | 24.7% | Road | 28.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 26.6% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.7% | 16.5% | 19.7% | 2017 | 36.9% | 15.2% | 23.6% | Road | 37.2% | 15.5% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 10.5% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.4% | 15.2% | 8.2% | Home | 31.9% | 13.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 7.7% | 22.9% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.5% | 5.1% | 2017 | 24.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | Home | 20.2% | 18.0% | -4.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.3% | 21.1% | 16.3% | 2017 | 31.9% | 19.6% | 14.2% | Road | 33.3% | 25.3% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 30.0% | 18.1% | 9.1% | Road | 30.8% | 21.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 15.6% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.8% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 2017 | 37.7% | 10.9% | 22.0% | Home | 32.9% | 10.4% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 14.3% | 10.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 2017 | 37.3% | 23.1% | 25.3% | Home | 33.1% | 15.7% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 33.6% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 2017 | 33.6% | 18.2% | 14.4% | Home | 36.9% | 21.4% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 25.0% | 10.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Road | 31.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | LH | 29.2% | 12.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% |
| Mets | Home | 33.8% | 11.0% | 15.0% | RH | 35.3% | 13.3% | 18.2% | L7Days | 36.5% | 19.4% | 14.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 29.0% | 15.5% | 7.9% | RH | 30.6% | 15.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% |
| Astros | Home | 30.6% | 15.6% | 12.6% | LH | 29.0% | 15.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | LH | 29.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 31.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Home | 33.8% | 11.7% | 17.2% | RH | 32.8% | 13.3% | 16.0% | L7Days | 26.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 18.7% | 11.8% | RH | 34.2% | 20.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 44.3% | 15.6% | 25.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.9% | 16.3% | 9.3% | RH | 34.1% | 17.4% | 14.4% | L7Days | 29.5% | 12.1% | 7.7% |
| Rays | Road | 34.3% | 17.1% | 15.4% | RH | 36.7% | 18.3% | 19.4% | L7Days | 31.7% | 15.4% | 14.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.8% | 15.2% | 14.1% | LH | 30.9% | 12.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 37.4% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| Padres | Road | 29.5% | 14.2% | 6.9% | RH | 28.3% | 13.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 17.2% | 5.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.5% | 15.8% | 16.7% | RH | 34.0% | 15.3% | 17.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 21.4% | 11.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.1% | 12.0% | 18.6% | LH | 41.5% | 17.5% | 25.7% | L7Days | 39.3% | 17.9% | 32.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.3% | 14.8% | 9.6% | RH | 31.2% | 14.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 28.2% | 0.0% | 8.5% |
| Braves | Home | 28.7% | 11.9% | 8.6% | LH | 27.7% | 14.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 20.0% | -3.8% |
| Royals | Home | 31.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | RH | 32.0% | 12.1% | 12.5% | L7Days | 30.4% | 3.8% | 11.4% |
| Giants | Home | 25.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | RH | 28.5% | 9.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.2% | 14.6% | 9.2% | RH | 30.3% | 14.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 36.2% | 27.0% | 23.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.2% | 11.3% | 15.0% | RH | 30.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | L7Days | 30.8% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.0% | 15.8% | 11.7% | RH | 29.4% | 12.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.6% | 8.6% | 17.8% | RH | 34.9% | 10.7% | 16.8% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.0% | -3.6% |
| Indians | Road | 35.9% | 12.0% | 18.9% | LH | 33.0% | 12.2% | 14.5% | L7Days | 30.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | RH | 30.7% | 11.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 43.1% | 12.5% | 23.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 13.6% | 15.3% | RH | 32.1% | 14.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 8.7% | 16.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 20.7% | 7.7% | 2.69 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 3.52 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.6% | 5.9% | 1.97 | 14.0% | 7.3% | 1.92 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 18.8% | 10.0% | 1.88 | 15.2% | 10.2% | 1.49 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.30 | 30.0% | 11.9% | 2.52 |
| Bryan Mitchell | NYY | 13.9% | 6.7% | 2.07 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 1.36 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 18.8% | 10.9% | 1.72 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.14 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 14.6% | 7.1% | 2.06 | 15.2% | 6.5% | 2.34 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.87 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 2.05 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.21 | |||
| German Marquez | COL | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.39 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 2.26 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.1% | 11.1% | 1.81 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.71 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.2% | 10.1% | 1.80 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 1.56 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.9% | 8.7% | 2.29 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.97 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.1% | 11.1% | 2.17 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 1.91 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 16.1% | 8.3% | 1.94 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 2.55 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.5% | 7.5% | 2.33 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 2.69 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.7% | 8.7% | 1.92 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 1.90 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.0% | 12.6% | 2.22 | 25.4% | 13.2% | 1.92 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 19.2% | 9.4% | 2.04 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 2.06 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 1.86 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.08 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 2.10 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 | 24.3% | 15.4% | 1.58 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 |
Chad Kuhl is our only outlier today and had a 12.1 SwStr% in his last start after his two lowest marks of the year (each below 7%) preceding that start. It’s pretty amazing that his strikeout rate has increased as the SwStr% decreased over the last month, but he has just a total of 10 strikeouts over his last 58 batters.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.43 | 5.08 | 0.65 | 5.1 | 0.67 | 5.3 | 0.87 | 4.51 | 0.08 | 2.79 | 5.11 | 2.32 | 4.99 | 2.2 | 4.93 | 2.14 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.2 | 4.25 | -0.95 | 3.98 | -1.22 | 3.79 | -1.41 | 5.49 | 0.29 | 6.41 | 3.44 | -2.97 | 3.11 | -3.3 | 4.08 | -2.33 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.54 | 5.69 | 2.15 | 5.34 | 1.8 | 4.52 | 0.98 | 5.82 | 2.28 | 3.75 | 5.3 | 1.55 | 4.86 | 1.11 | 4.31 | 0.56 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.15 | 4.98 | 0.83 | 5.3 | 1.15 | 5.23 | 1.08 | 4.95 | 0.80 | 4.1 | 5.36 | 1.26 | 5.44 | 1.34 | 5.76 | 1.66 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 2.96 | 3.99 | 1.03 | 4.06 | 1.1 | 2.78 | -0.18 | 6.36 | 3.40 | 1.17 | 2.97 | 1.8 | 2.78 | 1.61 | 1.38 | 0.21 |
| Bryan Mitchell | NYY | 5.06 | 4.81 | -0.25 | 4.54 | -0.52 | 4.02 | -1.04 | 3.97 | -1.09 | 3 | 2.99 | -0.01 | 3.67 | 0.67 | 2.47 | -0.53 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.96 | 4.87 | -0.09 | 4.72 | -0.24 | 4.23 | -0.73 | 4.58 | -0.38 | 3.46 | 4.59 | 1.13 | 4.09 | 0.63 | 4.22 | 0.76 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.9 | 5.55 | -2.35 | 5.62 | -2.28 | 6.24 | -1.66 | 8.66 | 0.76 | 7.43 | 5.61 | -1.82 | 5.76 | -1.67 | 6.14 | -1.29 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 6.23 | 4.44 | -1.79 | 4.14 | -2.09 | 5.75 | -0.48 | 7.63 | 1.40 | 5 | 4.22 | -0.78 | 3.83 | -1.17 | 5.07 | 0.07 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.54 | 3.96 | 0.42 | 4.19 | 0.65 | 4.06 | 0.52 | 3.09 | -0.45 | |||||||
| German Marquez | COL | 4.36 | 4.52 | 0.16 | 4.64 | 0.28 | 3.97 | -0.39 | 5.79 | 1.43 | 4.76 | 4.9 | 0.14 | 4.97 | 0.21 | 4.07 | -0.69 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.63 | 4.73 | 0.1 | 4.89 | 0.26 | 5.68 | 1.05 | 5.60 | 0.97 | 7.06 | 5.47 | -1.59 | 5.92 | -1.14 | 7.16 | 0.1 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.62 | 4.62 | 2 | 4.77 | 2.15 | 3.78 | 1.16 | 3.93 | 1.31 | 4.32 | 5.48 | 1.16 | 5.58 | 1.26 | 5.54 | 1.22 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.63 | 4.64 | 0.01 | 4.69 | 0.06 | 4 | -0.63 | 6.50 | 1.87 | 0.82 | 4.42 | 3.6 | 4.47 | 3.65 | 2.69 | 1.87 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.25 | 3.98 | -0.27 | 3.73 | -0.52 | 3.97 | -0.28 | 3.48 | -0.77 | 5.47 | 4.18 | -1.29 | 3.88 | -1.59 | 5.45 | -0.02 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.87 | 5.09 | -0.78 | 5.27 | -0.6 | 5.81 | -0.06 | 5.98 | 0.11 | 7.91 | 4.68 | -3.23 | 4.97 | -2.94 | 5.93 | -1.98 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.9 | 4.31 | -1.59 | 4.24 | -1.66 | 4.46 | -1.44 | 7.03 | 1.13 | 6.14 | 4.42 | -1.72 | 4.75 | -1.39 | 5.78 | -0.36 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.79 | 5.13 | 0.34 | 5.25 | 0.46 | 5.48 | 0.69 | 5.38 | 0.59 | 4.56 | 4.75 | 0.19 | 4.6 | 0.04 | 4.83 | 0.27 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0 | 2.73 | -0.32 | 2.73 | -0.32 | 2.31 | -0.74 | 5.52 | 3.08 | -2.44 | 2.74 | -2.78 | 1.64 | -3.88 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.54 | 3.83 | -0.71 | 3.77 | -0.77 | 4.19 | -0.35 | 4.82 | 0.28 | 2.82 | 3.7 | 0.88 | 3.38 | 0.56 | 3.9 | 1.08 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.28 | 3.7 | 0.42 | 3.51 | 0.23 | 3.87 | 0.59 | 3.52 | 0.24 | 3.82 | 3.75 | -0.07 | 3.52 | -0.3 | 4.9 | 1.08 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 6.04 | 5 | -1.04 | 5.3 | -0.74 | 4.8 | -1.24 | 8.23 | 2.19 | 6.2 | 5.2 | -1 | 5.46 | -0.74 | 5.01 | -1.19 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 8 | 5.15 | -2.85 | 5.29 | -2.71 | 6.7 | -1.3 | 7.29 | -0.71 | 13.5 | 4.74 | -8.76 | 4.75 | -8.75 | 7.04 | -6.46 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 4.86 | 4.5 | -0.36 | 4.23 | -0.63 | 4.73 | -0.13 | 6.09 | 1.23 | 6.94 | 4.17 | -2.77 | 4.27 | -2.67 | 6.74 | -0.2 |
Brent Suter has allowed just a single HR (3.7 HR/FB).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.295 | 0.282 | -0.013 | 45.2% | 0.178 | 11.0% | 85.6% | 87 | 8.00% | 32.20% | 199 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.297 | 0.347 | 0.05 | 47.7% | 0.247 | 12.0% | 90.3% | 85.8 | 4.90% | 33.60% | 304 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.287 | 0.282 | -0.005 | 49.8% | 0.199 | 3.7% | 93.7% | 86.3 | 3.40% | 31.30% | 268 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.277 | 0.220 | -0.057 | 34.7% | 0.153 | 14.0% | 85.1% | 86.1 | 7.20% | 31.60% | 307 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.298 | 0.308 | 0.01 | 46.2% | 0.192 | 3.7% | 85.6% | 84.5 | 3.80% | 25.30% | 79 |
| Bryan Mitchell | NYY | 0.289 | 0.259 | -0.03 | 47.3% | 0.309 | 8.3% | 90.5% | 87.6 | 3.60% | 30.90% | 55 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.303 | 0.325 | 0.022 | 42.1% | 0.228 | 6.7% | 85.3% | 87.3 | 5.40% | 36.80% | 261 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.316 | 0.393 | 0.077 | 39.9% | 0.257 | 15.9% | 90.4% | 89.3 | 6.50% | 39.70% | 184 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.293 | 0.294 | 0.001 | 47.7% | 0.239 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 87.6 | 10.00% | 33.60% | 110 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.306 | 0.267 | -0.039 | 34.8% | 0.209 | 5.7% | 81.5% | 87.6 | 8.20% | 31.40% | 159 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.298 | 0.320 | 0.022 | 41.6% | 0.21 | 10.3% | 90.3% | 89.1 | 6.80% | 36.20% | 235 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.289 | 0.256 | -0.033 | 31.6% | 0.248 | 8.3% | 82.0% | 87 | 8.30% | 34.60% | 254 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.296 | 0.276 | -0.02 | 37.4% | 0.189 | 9.4% | 83.6% | 86.5 | 4.00% | 28.80% | 323 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.298 | 0.329 | 0.031 | 40.8% | 0.212 | 9.3% | 88.9% | 88.3 | 5.70% | 36.40% | 261 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.286 | 0.317 | 0.031 | 48.7% | 0.197 | 7.4% | 84.2% | 85 | 5.20% | 27.30% | 308 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.304 | 0.313 | 0.009 | 33.2% | 0.245 | 11.5% | 90.4% | 88.2 | 8.50% | 34.80% | 316 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.305 | 0.347 | 0.042 | 39.4% | 0.247 | 5.4% | 91.0% | 88.4 | 6.90% | 36.30% | 317 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.269 | -0.023 | 38.5% | 0.205 | 7.6% | 88.4% | 85.8 | 7.00% | 29.50% | 329 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.303 | 0.008 | 63.0% | 0.183 | 2.3% | 89.8% | 85.8 | 4.20% | 30.00% | 240 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.303 | 0.339 | 0.036 | 67.1% | 0.147 | 8.7% | 90.3% | 87 | 5.10% | 36.20% | 254 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.306 | 0.315 | 0.009 | 60.9% | 0.171 | 4.2% | 88.6% | 88.3 | 6.70% | 37.90% | 330 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.318 | 0.347 | 0.029 | 37.3% | 0.208 | 5.8% | 88.4% | 89.7 | 10.20% | 43.10% | 332 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | 0.291 | 0.323 | 0.032 | 37.7% | 0.246 | 5.8% | 86.8% | 88.7 | 8.50% | 39.40% | 142 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.319 | 0.327 | 0.008 | 47.6% | 0.231 | 7.6% | 86.5% | 87.1 | 7.90% | 34.20% | 228 |
Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is generally favorable for BABIP, but perhaps not in Boston, which is a park with generally one of the highest BABIPs in the league due to the Green Monster. He also does not help his case by generating few popups. He has generated more popups in the past though.
Luis Perdomo must allow too many hard ground balls? Maybe somebody can figure that out because he has allowed average contact authority with few line drives or fly balls.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Lance McCullers (1) may have appeared to have slipped up recently, but his SwStr% and continued muffled suggest he may have deserved a bit better. While he still costs less than Lester on FanDuel where he’s far and away the most superior play, he costs quite a bit more than anyone else on DraftKings where he’s still likely my top choice against a Seattle offense with just an 83 sOPS+ against GB pitchers.
Luis Perdomo is pitching in Colorado. That’s a difficult proposition, but not a deadly one as a RHP this year. Two-thirds of his contact is on the ground with a nearly league average strikeout rate. At just $4.9K on DraftKings, he’s easily the top complement to the guy above. I’d venture you might even consider him on FanDuel if there are enough high priced bats on the wish list.
Value Tier Two
Marcus Stroman (2t) carries some concern against a contact prone offense in a dangerous park. The conditions are present for a potential BABIPing tonight (not a real word). We’re not going to ignore a league average strikeout rate with a 60% ground ball rate on this slate against an offense with little power.
Value Tier Three
Jerad Eickhoff is possibly something close to a league average arm in a favorable spot at a cost less than $7K.
Jon Lester (2t) has punished his ERA by falling behind batters and being forced to throw too many hittable fastballs over his last two starts. Assuming he’s not dealing with an injury, we can drop him down, but won’t entirely omit him on a weak board. We can hope for the best at potentially decreased ownership (though I’m never correct about these things and it is a weak board again). I’m not sure I’d want too much exposure to him tonight, but would definitely want some if ownership projections are favorable later.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Eduardo Rodriguez was having a fine season before a freak injury and pitched well in his most recent rehab start. He’s in a somewhat neutral spot tonight against one of the worst offenses against fly ball pitchers (89 sOPS+).
Brent Suter has not historically shown the upside in the minors that he’s exhibited in two July starts. It’s a very small sample size, but he’s in a decent enough spot for less than $7K on a weak board.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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