Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 23rd
Brand new laptop and I can’t get the “tap to click” feature to disable. Used to be an easy thing on my old laptap, but it doesn’t appear to be something so easily done on this one. Between that and trying to get everything switched over to the new system, I may have to be a bit less wordy today in order to get this posted in a timely manner.
This is only an issue because there are an unprecedented 13 games on the Monday night slate, possibly our largest non-holiday Monday of the season. In addition, two or tonight’s starters are making their first major league starts. Two more are making their first, one of those his major league debut.
That’s not to suggest this is a poor pitching slate at all. While having not even looked at prices yet, there are some high end pitchers and some interesting ones in nice spots.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.5 | 5.09 | 4.6 | 38.9% | 1.01 | 5.74 | Blue Jays | 103 | 92 | 124 | |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.92 | 4.0 | 50.6% | 1.14 | 4.37 | 5.03 | Rangers | 103 | 99 | 130 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 2.8 | 4.36 | 6.0 | 47.1% | 1.14 | 4.47 | 4.53 | Athletics | 115 | 94 | 98 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 5.8 | 3.01 | 6.8 | 43.4% | 1.10 | 2.54 | 3.59 | Pirates | 94 | 98 | 184 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -2.7 | 4.68 | 4.8 | 37.0% | 0.91 | 4.92 | 3.65 | Mets | 78 | 77 | 112 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.69 | 5.1 | 46.9% | 1.04 | 5.79 | 4.66 | Royals | 82 | 83 | 88 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -4.1 | 4.32 | 5.8 | 47.5% | 1.04 | 4.33 | 4.43 | Brewers | 91 | 79 | 70 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 4.9 | 5.52 | 4.1 | 54.9% | 1.04 | 5.58 | 6.71 | Tigers | 78 | 80 | 32 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 2 | 4.23 | 1.0 | 46.2% | 0.94 | 3.45 | 3.79 | Yankees | 108 | 111 | 129 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -5.4 | 3.34 | 6.4 | 45.2% | 0.91 | 2.93 | 3.46 | Padres | 71 | 80 | 78 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.5 | 4.44 | 5.1 | 39.5% | 0.92 | 3.95 | 3.21 | White Sox | 88 | 93 | 41 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.59 | 5.5 | 46.1% | 1.04 | 4.50 | 5.20 | Nationals | 90 | 95 | 144 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.71 | 5.5 | 46.4% | 0.90 | 4.81 | 4.69 | Braves | 107 | 93 | 136 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | -8.8 | 4.17 | 5.7 | 44.4% | 1.04 | 4.03 | 5.22 | Red Sox | 104 | 118 | 57 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.54 | 5.6 | 40.7% | 0.92 | 5.77 | 5.03 | Angels | 101 | 109 | 111 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -2.4 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 50.6% | 1.04 | 3.46 | 4.88 | Cardinals | 101 | 96 | 143 |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | -4 | 3.84 | 30.6% | 1.01 | 4.15 | 2.59 | Twins | 86 | 97 | 61 | |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.30 | 6.1 | 47.2% | 0.94 | 3.01 | 6.23 | Rays | 107 | 101 | 92 |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.31 | 2.6 | 34.2% | 1.01 | 5.41 | 5.28 | Diamondbacks | 84 | 82 | 107 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.72 | 5.8 | 50.5% | 1.01 | 3.69 | 4.41 | Cubs | 115 | 107 | 131 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 6 | 4.00 | 6.4 | 41.0% | 1.04 | 4.23 | 4.55 | Orioles | 88 | 82 | 90 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.28 | 5.4 | 50.0% | 0.99 | 3.08 | 3.80 | Phillies | 97 | 94 | 110 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 4.2 | 4.66 | 5.4 | 45.0% | 0.90 | 4.13 | 6.63 | Marlins | 84 | 78 | 77 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | -3.1 | 4.70 | 5.4 | 45.0% | 1.10 | 4.68 | 6.01 | Indians | 121 | 108 | 177 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -8.1 | 4.56 | 5.7 | 39.7% | 0.99 | 4.03 | 3.82 | Dodgers | 105 | 111 | 137 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | -0.9 | 1.04 | Reds | 99 | 97 | 51 |
Eric Lauer lasted two innings against the Cubs (5 ERs) one start after missing a complete game against the Dodgers (1 ER – 8 K) by a single out. He has otherwise been unimpressive with a below average strikeout rate (though the SwStr% is up recently). Both his estimators and xwOBA have improved over the last month as well. He’s in a great spot in one of the top parks on the board, facing an offense with a 77 wRC+ and split high 26.1 K% vs LHP. After a brief reappearance, it seems Cespedes is down again too.
Jacob DeGrom was pushed back after last night’s rainout and instead of facing the Yankees, he gets to face the Padres (71 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% on the road, 80 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP) in one of the top parks on the board. Removing the starts before and after his DL stint, he’s struck out fewer than seven in a game just once since April 10th, failing to complete seven innings just twice in that span. He leads the board in strikeout and swinging strike rate. He’s second in SIERA and xwOBA.
Jaime Barria has struck out more than five in just three of 13 starts with a high of seven and has not completed six innings in any of his last six starts. His 89.9 mph aEV is highest on the board. However, he does have an 11.3 SwStr% and pitches in a great park against an offense with a 19 K-BB% on the road and vs RHP.
Jose Urena walked four Phillies his last time out, the first time since Opening Day he’s walked more than two. It resulted in him tying a season high with five runs, also a mark he’s reached just one other time since that disastrous first start. While the spike in his strikeout rate over the last month is unsupported by SwStr%, he’s nearly at league average for the season (19.9%). His .285 xwOBA over the last month is not only second best on the board among actual starters, he also has a 43 point gap between that and his actual wOBA over that span, the largest positive gap on the board. The Braves have just a 20.6 K% vs RHP, but he pitches in one of the most negative run environments against an offense without much power either (10.5 HR/FB vs RHP).
Luis Castillo struck out just two Cardinals last time out and just three Cubs in the outing before that, but his HR problems seem to have calmed (just one over his last four) and he’s been below a 9.3 SwStr% just once over his last 14 starts (neither of his last two). His 14 SwStr% over the last month is the same as his season mark and somehow, his K% has dropped even further. He is allowing too much hard contact, but both his wOBA and xwOBA are below .330 over the last month. The Cardinals are about a league average matchup in most respects (96 wRC+, 13.8 K-BB%, 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP).
Luis Severino struck out a single Cleveland batter in his last start and has just a 22.3 K% over the last month. This immediately makes us look at his velocity chart and…it’s been up and down, which it seems to be since his eighth start of the season, fluctuating frequently between 96 and 98+ mph. In addition, his hard hit rate has been above 40% in each of his last two starts with his ground ball rate just 39.7% over his last 13 starts. He does get a park upgrade tonight and the Rays are an average offense that doesn’t offer a lot of upside, but they don’t do a lot of damage either.
Patrick Corbin struck out a season low three Braves in his last outing and has struck out just 20 of his last 94 batters. However, he’s completed six innings in three of those starts, allowing more than two runs just once. More encouragingly, he has not dropped below a 10.9 SwStr% in any of those starts. While he has an 88.6 mph aEV and 43.1 Hard%, his Barrels/BBE is just 6.6%. There seems to be somewhat of a disconnect there and the Cubs are a difficult matchup at Wrigley, but that’s more of a plate discipline issue (8.6 K-BB% at home, 11.6 K-BB% vs LHP) than a hard contact one (11.7 HR/FB at home, 10.8 HR/FB vs LHP).
Ross Stripling has a decreased 26.1 K% since the beginning of June (eight starts), but that’s still a great mark against a 1.5 BB%. He has allowed seven HRs over that span, but has completed six innings in six of those starts with more than two runs just twice. His xwOBA has increased over the last month, but it’s still below .300. His .250 season mark is best on the board with the lowest 95+ mph EV (27.6%) among regular starters today. The Phillies have a 25.7 K% vs RHP.
Sean Newcomb has allowed at least three runs in four straight starts and has struck out more than three in just one of his last five. His velocity remains steady, but his SwStr% has been all over the place. More concerning, his ground ball rate has exceeded 40% in just one of those five starts with a cumulative 40 Hard% over that span. He’d previously been one of the better contact managers in the league and still has just an 86.7 mph aEV on the season. All of that said, he’s in a great park against an offense with a 78 wRC+ and 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Zack Eflin (.284 – 72.5% – 7.6) hasn’t been bad. Velocity remains up and the strikeout rate is above average, though lower over the last month. He hasn’t been dominant though and costs more than $9K in a tough spot. The loss of Turner and addition of Machado is somewhat of a wash offensively, but this is still a high quality lineup overall in a dangerous park against a pitcher with an unsustainable HR rate.
Jhoulys Chacin (.267 – 71.7% – 6.7) does manage contact fairly well and his BABIP isn’t even that far from his team’s .279 mark. However, he’s struck out a total of five batters over his last two starts and has exceeded five just once in his last six with a 30 point jump in his xwOBA over the last month. The Nationals have better peripherals than their results against RHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Gio Gonzalez has a 9.3 SwStr% over the last month that’s near his season rate and the Brewers have just a 79 wRC+ vs LHP, but he’s gone seven starts without exceeding four strikeouts, completing six innings just twice in that span and this Milwaukee offense has much better peripherals than results against southpaws. The cost is below $8K now.
Corey Kluber is one of three extremely high end pitchers. While he did strike out nine Yankees in his last start, he also allowed six runs for the second time in four starts and skipped the All-Star game to get treatment on a knee issue that’s been bothering him, which is a concern. He has not pitched in 11 days. In addition, the Pirates have a 19.3 K% vs RHP, the second lowest split on the board.
Daniel Poncedeleon makes his major league debut in a difficult park against an offense that doesn’t offer much upside. The 26 year-old is not much of a prospect, but at least he’s a starter, unlike some other unknowns today. He does have a 26.3 K% in 17 AAA starts this season, but also a 12.3 BB% and has not otherwise been above a 21 K% since low A ball in 2014. Perhaps he’s learned something though and the cost is $6K or below.
Rick Porcello has struck out exactly nine in three of his last 13 starts. He’s not struck out more than five in any of the other 10 and has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts. He’s in a great spot against the Orioles who have put up just an 82 wRC+ and 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP even with Manny Machado, but is just not a $9K+ pitcher for me. He has just a 6.7 SwStr% over the last month and hasn’t been above 9% in any of his last 10 starts.
Adalberto Mejia has a 15.8 K-BB% in 62.1 AAA IP, but an 8.0 K-BB% in just over 100 major league innings. The 25 year-old is ranked the fifth best prospect in the Minnesota system on his Fangraphs profile page, with a 45 FV grade and a slider graded as his best pitch (55). The matchup with the Blue Jays is fairly marginal.
Luke Farrell appears to be one of many bullpen arms getting a start today. He’s thrown 28 innings over 19 appearances for the Cubs this season, exceeding 50 pitches just twice. He does have solid numbers (though 9.9% Barrels/BBE) a low price tag and a decent matchup (Diamondbacks 82 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs RHP). He did start one game, lasting 2.2 innings and threw five innings in relief once, but has otherwise not exceeded two innings in an outing this year.
Kevin Gausman is cheap, but his strikeouts are way down (despite a 9.7 SwStr% last 30 days) and he’s facing the Red Sox.
Lucas Giolito has looked a bit better in some recent starts, but that’s mostly BABIP and LOB predicated.
Hunter Wood is another Rays “opener”. He’s not thrown more than 38 pitches or three innings in any outing this year. He does cost the minimum on DK, but is also facing the Yankees.
Trevor Williams is in the worst park adjusted spot on the board.
Luis Santos not only has made all 15 of his career major league appearances out of the bullpen, he wasn’t even starting at AAA this season.
Heath Fillmyer has been used mostly out of the pen for the Royals (multiple innings each time) and has a -1.5 K-BB% in 15.2 innings, while not being that much more impressive in 13 AAA starts (6.2 K-BB%).
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.9% | Season | 5.0% | 15.0% | -18.7% | Road | 15.1% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | L14Days | |||||
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 13.0% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 14.9% | Season | 10.8% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 17.7% | Road | 14.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.7% | L14Days | 10.3% | 5.1% | 18.8% | |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 22.9% | Season | 22.9% | 8.4% | 20.2% | 26.9% | Home | 19.3% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 28.3% | L14Days | 12.0% | 4.0% | ||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.2% | 4.9% | 14.1% | 11.1% | Season | 25.8% | 3.3% | 15.7% | 21.0% | Home | 32.9% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 7.4% | L14Days | 28.1% | 6.3% | 18.2% | 33.3% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 25.6% | Season | 18.9% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 25.6% | Road | 18.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 20.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 31.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 13.3% | Season | 18.9% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 9.9% | Road | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 8.6% | L14Days | 21.4% | 14.3% | 50.0% | 16.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | Season | 21.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.0% | Road | 21.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 14.3% | |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | L2 Yrs | 10.6% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 21.6% | Season | 10.6% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 21.6% | Home | 6.3% | 12.5% | 38.5% | L14Days | 6.1% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 26.9% | |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 10.0% | Season | 21.1% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 12.9% | Home | 25.0% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 8.3% | L14Days | 29.0% | 12.9% | 12.5% | -5.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 28.6% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 9.9% | Season | 30.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | Home | 32.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 8.1% | L14Days | 23.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 7.0% | 13.9% | 22.5% | Season | 19.1% | 7.0% | 13.9% | 22.5% | Home | 21.4% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 34.3% | L14Days | 23.8% | 20.0% | 21.4% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.6% | Season | 18.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 18.8% | Home | 21.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 12.6% | L14Days | 10.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | -2.6% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 17.8% | Season | 19.9% | 6.3% | 26.3% | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 18.2% | L14Days | 18.6% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 23.4% | |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | Season | 20.0% | 5.6% | 17.0% | 12.6% | Home | 22.7% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 14.3% | L14Days | 6.9% | 3.5% | 14.3% | |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.6% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 14.7% | Season | 13.6% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 13.0% | Road | 11.2% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 19.5% | L14Days | 18.0% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 24.1% | 8.3% | 18.0% | 14.5% | Season | 21.5% | 7.9% | 18.4% | 19.4% | Home | 26.7% | 8.4% | 20.5% | 14.7% | L14Days | 13.5% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 40.0% |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 7.6% | 14.7% | 1.4% | Season | 24.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.3% | Home | 21.1% | 5.3% | 9.1% | -7.2% | L14Days | 27.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.8% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | Season | 28.7% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | Road | 28.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | L14Days | 4.6% | 4.6% | 33.3% | 45.0% |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 16.0% | Season | 30.3% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 23.9% | Home | 20.0% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 7.5% | L14Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 40.0% | |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 18.3% | Season | 30.4% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 27.3% | Road | 24.2% | 7.5% | 18.5% | 16.1% | L14Days | 19.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 4.9% | 12.1% | 16.0% | Season | 22.3% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | Road | 20.9% | 5.7% | 13.1% | 19.7% | L14Days | 22.9% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 25.0% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 24.4% | 5.0% | 13.9% | 8.9% | Season | 28.1% | 3.7% | 11.9% | 10.0% | Road | 26.4% | 5.0% | 16.4% | 9.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 4.0% | 36.8% | |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | Season | 22.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.6% | Road | 27.2% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 3.7% | L14Days | 11.4% | 15.9% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | Season | 17.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | Road | 17.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 7.2% | L14Days | 13.6% | 13.6% | 43.8% | |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 5.3% | 14.3% | 11.5% | Season | 24.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | Home | 22.4% | 4.3% | 18.3% | 7.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.0% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 13.7% | LH | 21.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.3% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.2% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 24.0% | LH | 23.4% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 17.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.2% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.0% | 8.0% | 15.0% | 22.7% | LH | 23.7% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 24.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 28.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.7% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 16.7% | RH | 19.3% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 14.7% | 5.4% | 23.1% | 31.0% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | LH | 26.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 11.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 12.5% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 25.6% | LH | 23.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 17.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 21.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 25.2% | LH | 21.6% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 20.5% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.4% | RH | 22.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 32.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 17.3% | RH | 23.4% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 18.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 12.3% |
| Padres | Road | 26.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 15.9% | RH | 25.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 17.8% | L7Days | 27.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.4% | 6.5% | 13.8% | 16.6% | RH | 25.6% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.0% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 12.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 14.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.5% | 17.4% | 5.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 18.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 17.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.2% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 20.1% | RH | 18.6% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 20.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 20.8% |
| Angels | Home | 21.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 19.8% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 19.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 11.6% | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.7% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 19.0% | RH | 22.0% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 22.0% | L7Days | 12.3% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| Twins | Road | 22.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 16.6% | RH | 21.2% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 20.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.8% | 4.2% | 14.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 15.9% | RH | 22.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 15.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 17.9% | RH | 24.5% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 20.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 22.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.4% | LH | 21.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 20.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | RH | 24.5% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 32.5% | 3.5% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 7.5% | RH | 25.7% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 17.4% | LH | 21.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 25.0% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 9.3% | 15.1% | 27.5% | RH | 20.3% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 25.7% | L7Days | 9.5% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 40.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 19.7% | RH | 21.7% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 25.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.7% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 24.4% | RH | 21.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 20.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 5.0% | 8.9% | 0.56 | 5.0% | 8.9% | 0.56 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 10.8% | 6.7% | 1.61 | 10.3% | 4.0% | 2.58 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 22.9% | 12.3% | 1.86 | 20.5% | 16.0% | 1.28 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 25.8% | 11.0% | 2.35 | 19.8% | 12.4% | 1.60 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 | 17.5% | 10.1% | 1.73 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 18.9% | 10.5% | 1.80 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.21 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 10.6% | 6.0% | 1.77 | 10.6% | 6.0% | 1.77 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 21.1% | 13.4% | 1.57 | 24.4% | 15.2% | 1.61 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 30.7% | 15.4% | 1.99 | 26.1% | 14.5% | 1.80 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 19.1% | 11.3% | 1.69 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 1.84 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 18.1% | 9.0% | 2.01 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 2.04 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 3.19 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.0% | 11.5% | 1.74 | 12.8% | 9.7% | 1.32 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 13.6% | 7.5% | 1.81 | 17.3% | 7.0% | 2.47 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 21.5% | 14.0% | 1.54 | 18.7% | 14.0% | 1.34 |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | 24.3% | 12.8% | 1.90 | 29.2% | 15.6% | 1.87 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 28.7% | 12.2% | 2.35 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 2.19 |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | 30.3% | 11.9% | 2.55 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.49 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 30.4% | 14.3% | 2.13 | 27.1% | 15.7% | 1.73 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.59 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 3.10 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 28.1% | 11.0% | 2.55 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 2.17 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.83 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 17.1% | 7.5% | 2.28 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 1.85 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 24.0% | 10.7% | 2.24 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 1.97 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals |
Jaime Barria has seen his even his SwStr% drop over the last month, but even that’s not terrible. In fact, he’s only been below 8% just once this season.
Jose Urena has maxed out at a 9.1 SwStr% over his last five starts.
Luis Castillo nearly has a higher SwStr% than K% over the last month and I just don’t understand how that’s possible because he has just a total of four walks over that span too.
Patrick Corbin actually has an increase in SwStr% over the last month, that’s not really accurate if you omit the next start to drop off. However, he’s only been below 13% once over his last four starts with a low of 10.9%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 9.00 | 7.39 | -1.61 | 9.00 | -2.47 | 4.90 | -4.10 | 6.26 | -2.74 | 9.00 | 7.39 | -1.61 | 6.53 | -2.47 | 4.90 | -4.10 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 6.08 | 5.00 | -1.08 | 6.08 | -1.15 | 4.93 | -1.15 | 7.83 | 1.75 | 3.24 | 5.03 | 1.79 | 5.23 | 1.99 | 3.27 | 0.03 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.36 | 4.06 | -0.30 | 4.36 | -0.25 | 5.05 | 0.69 | 5.67 | 1.31 | 9.53 | 3.49 | -6.04 | 3.28 | -6.25 | 4.33 | -5.20 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.76 | 3.18 | 0.42 | 2.76 | 0.30 | 3.43 | 0.67 | 2.57 | -0.19 | 6.14 | 4.33 | -1.81 | 4.48 | -1.66 | 5.06 | -1.08 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 4.87 | 4.68 | -0.19 | 4.87 | -0.37 | 4.58 | -0.29 | 5.97 | 1.10 | 3.71 | 4.33 | 0.62 | 4.08 | 0.37 | 4.01 | 0.30 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 4.67 | 5.24 | 0.57 | 4.67 | 0.30 | 5.32 | 0.65 | 5.95 | 1.28 | 6.75 | 5.69 | -1.06 | 5.17 | -1.58 | 6.15 | -0.60 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 3.72 | 4.46 | 0.74 | 3.72 | 0.43 | 4.00 | 0.28 | 4.13 | 0.41 | 6.88 | 5.95 | -0.93 | 5.32 | -1.56 | 5.50 | -1.38 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 3.45 | 5.51 | 2.06 | 3.45 | 1.90 | 5.45 | 2.00 | 7.48 | 4.03 | 3.45 | 5.52 | 2.07 | 5.35 | 1.90 | 5.45 | 2.00 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 2.70 | 4.18 | 1.48 | 2.70 | 1.59 | 4.65 | 1.95 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 2.45 | 3.93 | 1.48 | 4.15 | 1.70 | 4.88 | 2.43 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.68 | 2.94 | 1.26 | 1.68 | 1.06 | 2.32 | 0.64 | 2.26 | 0.58 | 2.25 | 3.35 | 1.10 | 3.45 | 1.20 | 3.33 | 1.08 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.55 | 4.44 | 0.89 | 3.55 | 1.07 | 4.83 | 1.28 | 4.79 | 1.24 | 3.48 | 5.04 | 1.56 | 5.11 | 1.63 | 5.18 | 1.70 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.68 | 4.83 | 1.15 | 3.68 | 1.04 | 3.93 | 0.25 | 4.66 | 0.98 | 5.27 | 4.76 | -0.51 | 4.56 | -0.71 | 4.14 | -1.13 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.39 | 3.92 | -0.47 | 4.39 | -0.53 | 3.70 | -0.69 | 3.91 | -0.48 | 4.30 | 4.26 | -0.04 | 3.79 | -0.51 | 3.56 | -0.74 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 4.33 | 3.99 | -0.34 | 4.33 | -0.43 | 4.48 | 0.15 | 4.11 | -0.22 | 4.13 | 4.65 | 0.52 | 4.54 | 0.41 | 4.73 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 6.18 | 5.94 | -0.24 | 6.18 | 0.02 | 6.13 | -0.05 | 8.04 | 1.86 | 3.94 | 5.20 | 1.26 | 5.15 | 1.21 | 5.65 | 1.71 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 5.49 | 4.14 | -1.35 | 5.49 | -1.50 | 4.76 | -0.73 | 3.85 | -1.64 | 4.62 | 3.90 | -0.72 | 3.76 | -0.86 | 3.31 | -1.31 |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | 7.88 | 3.99 | -3.89 | 7.88 | -3.64 | 4.03 | -3.85 | 5.27 | -2.61 | 1.42 | 2.66 | 1.24 | 2.96 | 1.54 | 3.47 | 2.05 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.31 | 3.21 | 0.90 | 2.31 | 0.79 | 2.74 | 0.43 | 2.65 | 0.34 | 2.66 | 3.90 | 1.24 | 3.58 | 0.92 | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | 3.86 | 3.41 | -0.45 | 3.86 | 0.07 | 4.79 | 0.93 | 3.18 | -0.68 | 4.22 | 5.06 | 0.84 | 5.33 | 1.11 | 5.78 | 1.56 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.24 | 3.06 | -0.18 | 3.24 | -0.45 | 2.82 | -0.42 | 2.91 | -0.33 | 2.45 | 3.08 | 0.63 | 2.68 | 0.23 | 1.79 | -0.66 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4.13 | 3.85 | -0.28 | 4.13 | -0.17 | 3.78 | -0.35 | 4.40 | 0.27 | 7.40 | 4.45 | -2.95 | 4.63 | -2.77 | 6.20 | -1.20 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 2.08 | 2.86 | 0.78 | 2.08 | 0.71 | 2.72 | 0.64 | 2.38 | 0.30 | 2.35 | 3.08 | 0.73 | 2.88 | 0.53 | 3.37 | 1.02 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 3.51 | 4.60 | 1.09 | 3.51 | 0.83 | 4.15 | 0.64 | 3.87 | 0.36 | 6.12 | 6.03 | -0.09 | 5.75 | -0.37 | 6.91 | 0.79 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 4.36 | 4.84 | 0.48 | 4.36 | 0.40 | 4.44 | 0.08 | 5.31 | 0.95 | 6.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 5.03 | -0.97 | 5.93 | -0.07 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 3.15 | 3.66 | 0.51 | 3.15 | 0.62 | 3.04 | -0.11 | 4.03 | 0.88 | 2.63 | 3.67 | 1.04 | 3.81 | 1.18 | 2.86 | 0.23 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals |
Jacob deGrom has an 85.9 LOB% and 8.8 HR/FB despite allowing three HRs over his last four starts.
Jaime Barria has an 83.3 LOB%. His .269 BABIP is kind of borderline.
Luis Castillo has a 67.6 LOB% and 18.4 HR/FB over the last month, but has allowed just one HR over his last four starts.
Luis Severino has an 83.1 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB, though the HRs themselves are increased (four over his last two starts) because the ground ball rate has decreased significantly.
Ross Stripling has a 90 LOB% that’s not sustainable at all, but his .315 BABIP may be too high as well considering the quality of contact he’s generated.
Sean Newcomb has a .255 BABIP. More concerning, his ERA matches his extremely elevated estimators over the last month.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.308 | 0.375 | 0.067 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 89.5% | 30.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.379 | 0.105 | 53.9% | 19.1% | 12.5% | 91.9% | 41.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.288 | -0.016 | 44.3% | 22.6% | 9.6% | 84.6% | 33.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.294 | 0.248 | -0.046 | 45.0% | 21.2% | 9.9% | 89.7% | 31.4% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.305 | 0.358 | 0.053 | 37.0% | 28.4% | 8.3% | 86.8% | 41.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.256 | -0.034 | 45.2% | 19.0% | 6.3% | 84.7% | 33.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.289 | 0.309 | 0.020 | 50.0% | 19.9% | 7.9% | 85.4% | 34.0% |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.309 | 0.265 | -0.044 | 54.9% | 15.7% | 26.7% | 96.7% | 39.4% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.273 | 0.243 | -0.030 | 47.4% | 18.4% | 15.4% | 80.0% | 35.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.302 | 0.282 | -0.020 | 46.6% | 24.0% | 17.2% | 78.9% | 31.2% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.294 | 0.269 | -0.025 | 39.5% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 84.3% | 38.2% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.279 | 0.267 | -0.012 | 41.6% | 22.8% | 8.4% | 89.3% | 35.6% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 53.1% | 18.6% | 10.0% | 87.6% | 36.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.000 | 46.7% | 21.5% | 10.7% | 84.6% | 35.7% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.289 | 0.252 | -0.037 | 39.8% | 17.4% | 10.7% | 88.2% | 41.3% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.297 | 0.303 | 0.006 | 44.6% | 21.8% | 8.7% | 80.0% | 37.3% |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | 0.305 | 0.435 | 0.130 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 81.0% | 35.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.278 | -0.002 | 43.9% | 22.4% | 10.2% | 83.5% | 34.3% |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | 0.274 | 0.277 | 0.003 | 33.8% | 19.7% | 9.1% | 82.1% | 40.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.282 | 0.283 | 0.001 | 48.2% | 23.3% | 7.0% | 83.2% | 28.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.009 | 45.1% | 19.9% | 8.0% | 90.0% | 35.4% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.292 | 0.315 | 0.023 | 49.0% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 86.4% | 31.8% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.280 | 0.255 | -0.025 | 46.2% | 18.9% | 11.0% | 83.6% | 38.7% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.301 | 0.261 | -0.040 | 40.4% | 20.9% | 8.7% | 90.6% | 37.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.297 | 0.284 | -0.013 | 37.2% | 21.5% | 11.4% | 84.4% | 39.0% |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals | 0.291 |
Eric Lauer has a 28.4 LD%, which is just not going to fly and will likely regress.
Jacob deGrom has an IFFB% nearly double his HR/FB rate. He and Patrick Corbin are the two pitchers with both a great Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%.
Ross Stripling has an IFFB% nearly matching his LD%. The high BABIP seems very fluky.
Sean Newcomb has been a quality contact manager with a nice profile and strong defense for the most part this season, prior to this recent rough patch.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | 0.412 | -0.025 | 0.353 | -0.030 | 0.412 | -0.025 | -1.100 | ||||
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.390 | 0.014 | 0.365 | -0.039 | 0.346 | 0.003 | -0.800 | 89.4 | 10.0 | 41.100 | 90 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.355 | -0.015 | 0.350 | -0.011 | 0.339 | 0.029 | -0.200 | 89 | 9.2 | 37.700 | 316 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.293 | -0.036 | 0.241 | -0.015 | 0.313 | -0.006 | -0.400 | 87.6 | 7.5 | 32.600 | 362 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.350 | 0.016 | 0.350 | 0.015 | 0.311 | -0.004 | -0.700 | 86.8 | 5.9 | 31.900 | 254 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.377 | -0.050 | 0.382 | -0.013 | 0.366 | 0.026 | -0.300 | 87.5 | 9.4 | 32.300 | 223 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.321 | 0.000 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 0.354 | 0.031 | -0.900 | 87 | 5.3 | 33.600 | 301 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.327 | -0.003 | 0.330 | -0.024 | 0.327 | -0.003 | -0.300 | 87.2 | 2.0 | 25.500 | 51 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.253 | 0.006 | 0.284 | -0.028 | 0.204 | 0.022 | -0.700 | 81.7 | 0.0 | 17.600 | 34 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.261 | -0.018 | 0.259 | 0.002 | 0.308 | -0.045 | 1.000 | 86.5 | 3.3 | 30.200 | 301 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.370 | -0.049 | 0.360 | -0.061 | 0.354 | -0.015 | -1.200 | 89.9 | 8.7 | 38.800 | 196 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.334 | -0.039 | 0.309 | -0.046 | 0.364 | -0.055 | -1.400 | 87 | 5.5 | 36.500 | 345 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.322 | -0.018 | 0.334 | -0.009 | 0.285 | 0.043 | -0.600 | 88 | 5.9 | 35.900 | 323 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.345 | -0.002 | 0.348 | -0.005 | 0.357 | -0.026 | -0.600 | 88.6 | 7.9 | 39.900 | 356 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.382 | -0.029 | 0.383 | -0.048 | 0.361 | -0.045 | 0.000 | 89 | 8.2 | 37.300 | 330 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.349 | -0.008 | 0.280 | 0.012 | 0.323 | -0.006 | -1.500 | 88 | 9.6 | 40.300 | 313 |
| Luis Santos | Blue Jays | 0.350 | 0.056 | 0.329 | -0.005 | 0.285 | 0.012 | -0.100 | ||||
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.299 | -0.044 | 0.276 | -0.009 | 0.340 | -0.010 | -0.400 | 87.7 | 7.1 | 33.400 | 323 |
| Luke Farrell | Cubs | 0.319 | -0.002 | 0.354 | 0.024 | 0.330 | -0.046 | -0.700 | 88.6 | 9.9 | 39.400 | 71 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.295 | -0.031 | 0.319 | 0.007 | 0.291 | -0.038 | -0.500 | 88.6 | 6.6 | 38.200 | 304 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.319 | -0.013 | 0.331 | -0.019 | 0.383 | -0.023 | -0.600 | 88.4 | 6.7 | 34.400 | 360 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.250 | 0.028 | 0.284 | 0.008 | 0.295 | 0.034 | -0.800 | 85.9 | 4.2 | 27.600 | 261 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.301 | -0.010 | 0.303 | 0.002 | 0.376 | -0.014 | -1.300 | 86.7 | 3.5 | 32.200 | 289 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.349 | -0.041 | 0.333 | -0.007 | 0.416 | -0.068 | 0.700 | 85.8 | 8.1 | 31.300 | 307 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.292 | -0.012 | 0.339 | -0.008 | 0.235 | 0.031 | 0.000 | 86.5 | 5.6 | 34.200 | 196 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon | Cardinals |
Jaime Barria has the highest aEV on the board despite being a fly ball pitcher with a high popup rate. That’s a bit scary.
Jacob deGrom and Ross Stripling have xwOBAs well below anyone else because they’ve combined strikeouts with great contact management.
Sean Newcomb has seen his xwOBA skyrocket over the last month.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Top end pitchers, unknowns and at least one very interesting SP option, which may allow players to pay up for those expensive arms.
Value Tier One
Eric Lauer is a secondary pitcher DraftKings option and that is all, but he may end up being the most popular SP2 by a large margin because he costs the minimum. His $3.4K price differential is nearly twice any other pitcher tonight.
Jacob deGrom (1) is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but $1K behind Severino on DraftKings. He also probably has the top park adjusted matchup and one of the highest upside ones on the board. It is baseball, but theoretically, he should feast.
Value Tier Two
Jose Urena is not a high upside arm in this spot, but does pitch in a great park against an offense without much power at a great price (below $7K).
Ross Stripling (2t) isn’t striking out batters at an elite rate anymore, but still a well above average one while remaining exceptional in most other aspects. He does get a park downgrade tonight, but against a lineup with some strikeout upside.
Value Tier Three
Jaime Barria doesn’t go deep into games and allows some pretty hard contact, but he’s just $5.9K on FanDuel in a great spot, where he could even be one of the top values on the board. He may be a bit overpriced on DraftKings ($8.1K).
Luis Castillo is probably going to disappoint you again, but you just can’t completely ignore that SwStr% in a marginal spot for less than $7K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Patrick Corbin (4) with a lower strikeout rate over the last month does not concern me due to the swinging strike rate. What does concern me is the matchup with the Cubs that may not offer much upside.
Sean Newcomb joins the tier of pitchers I’m concerned about, but have issues with omitting completely for some reason or other. For him, it’s the reasonable price (more so on FanDuel) with the great park adjusted matchup.
Luis Severino (2t) is the most expensive DK pitcher by $1K and there is some concern over his most recent outings and trends, but I don’t want to omit him completely because he could very well make me look silly for doing so and I’ve heard nothing about an injury. I’d probably limit my exposure though, making it really tough to get away from deGrom.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.