Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 19th
We start the week with a slate fairly large by Monday standards (11 games), but pretty straightforward in terms of pitchers. It’s the top three arms and then depends on how you feel about Brad Peacock and his potential to self-destruct. There it is. I guess you don’t need to read any further, but I’m going to write it anyway and try to explain why and then subjectively tell you what order I’d prefer them in.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 2.6 | 4.37 | 5.52 | 39.1% | 0.89 | 4.96 | SEA | 109 | 105 | 114 | |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 4.5 | 5.21 | 5.6 | 37.2% | 1.11 | 6.86 | 4.99 | TOR | 89 | 93 | 103 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -1.9 | 3.86 | 4.71 | 44.0% | 0.93 | 4.37 | 3.94 | OAK | 117 | 103 | 117 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2 | 2.48 | 7.13 | 48.5% | 0.89 | 2.45 | 4.24 | NYM | 116 | 83 | 117 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -9.1 | 3.99 | 6.08 | 60.9% | 0.96 | 4.28 | 3.67 | CHC | 100 | 111 | 131 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.5 | 3.36 | 6.72 | 42.7% | 1.02 | 3.45 | 2.63 | BAL | 98 | 96 | 142 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -14.2 | 5.98 | 3.1 | 53.3% | 0.93 | 5.98 | HOU | 124 | 122 | 140 | |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -2.7 | 4.52 | 5.68 | 34.1% | 1.02 | 4.61 | 5.08 | CLE | 98 | 104 | 147 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -6.8 | 3.97 | 5.98 | 45.7% | 1.02 | 3.96 | 4.74 | MIL | 96 | 96 | 104 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 2.7 | 4.53 | 5. | 50.0% | 1.06 | 4.27 | 3.76 | KAN | 79 | 82 | 120 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.5 | 4.2 | 5.61 | 35.7% | 0.96 | 4.21 | 4.06 | CIN | 93 | 101 | 81 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 7.8 | 4.26 | 5.29 | 39.4% | 1.06 | 4.37 | 4.58 | BOS | 96 | 93 | 96 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.6 | 3.85 | 6.57 | 46.0% | 1 | 3.48 | 5.67 | ATL | 90 | 93 | 122 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.47 | 6.34 | 48.2% | 0.96 | 3.42 | 2.97 | SDG | 75 | 71 | 114 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.61 | 46.3% | 0.94 | 5.36 | WAS | 102 | 102 | 128 | |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.3 | 4.31 | 6.05 | 32.5% | 1.11 | 4.32 | 3.68 | TEX | 99 | 94 | 107 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -3.4 | 4.72 | 5.45 | 49.7% | 1.02 | 4.22 | 4.04 | PIT | 88 | 92 | 86 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -0.6 | 4.91 | 6.11 | 43.5% | 1 | 4.88 | 2.82 | SFO | 86 | 80 | 118 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 7.9 | 4.29 | 5.35 | 53.4% | 0.89 | 3.45 | 3.47 | DET | 84 | 99 | 86 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 10.3 | 4.43 | 5.56 | 47.2% | 0.96 | 4.08 | 3.79 | TAM | 110 | 116 | 125 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0 | 4.29 | 6.04 | 47.8% | 0.94 | 4.41 | 4.7 | MIA | 99 | 95 | 119 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -1.5 | 4.56 | 5.34 | 47.6% | 0.89 | 4.2 | 5.54 | LOS | 114 | 104 | 138 |
Brad Peacock has walked four in each of his last two starts and has a 12.4 BB% as a starter. It was a problem when he struck out just one batter two starts back, but he struck out 10 in his one and at least eight in each of his other three as well, giving him a 24.7 K-BB% in five starts overall, which would be third best in baseball among qualifiers. Despite a 33.3 Hard%, he has just a 6.1 Hard-Soft% because he allows very little medium contact. His 1.2% Barrels/BBE is easily the best on the board. The A’s have more power at home than you’d think, but strike out around a quarter of the time no matter how you look at them.
Clayton Kershaw has estimators around and above three. That hasn’t happened since 2010. His K%, SwStr% and K-BB% are his lowest since 2013, though the last is still tied for fourth best in baseball. That’s something of a decline for him. He’s struck out five or fewer in four of his last nine, but also at least nine in four of his last nine as well with six HRs over his last four. He’s also gone at least seven innings in 11 of 14 starts this year. It’s still in there, which means maybe he goes on a dominant run at some point, but you’re not going to get prime Kershaw every time. The Mets have hit the ball well on the road, but have just a 9.6 HR/FB vs LHP.
Corey Kluber has struck out 28 of 72 batters since missing a month, allowing five runs over those 19 innings. He’s additionally had a 59 GB% and -18 Hard-Soft%. Make that a -30 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts. His SwStr has been above 12.5% in each of his last seven starts. He’s increased his velocity, but decreased his standard fastballs in favor or more cutters and curves since returning. He’s facing a red hot Baltimore offense after losing their top LH power threat in a tough park. Though he does not have much of a split this year, Kluber has been better against RHBs throughout his career. The Orioles have just a 28.8 Hard% at home, but a 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP.
Jon Lester had his second 10 strikeout performance of the season, both allowing one run in seven or more innings and bookending three starts where he allowed 13 ERs and four HRs. We noticed the solid peripherals last time out where really only his walk rate and velocity have slightly declined from last year. His strikeout rate, SwStr%, batted ball and contact rates are all nearly the same or even identical. He also has the top matchup on the board and that’s probably not even debatable. The Padres have a 19.4 K-BB% on the road an 24.5 K% vs LHP.
Sam Gaviglio has not exceeded six innings in any start and has only gotten that far twice, but something interesting has happened in June. After totaling just four strikeouts in his first three starts of the season, he’s increased his strikeout rate to 25% over his last three. The caveat here is that he’s done it with just an 8.0 SwStr%, but it was a career high 11.4% in his last start. He’s allowed a lot of hard contact over this span (42.2 Hard%), but with a 64.4 GB%. Though he had just a 12.4 K% in 32.2 AAA innings this year, he’s been above 17% in most of his work in the upper minors over the last few years with a double digit K-BB%. It’s not exceptional, but he’s against a Detroit offense that hasn’t been as ferocious on the road in a park that can usually handle some hard contact.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jake Odorizzi (.247 – 73.1% – 17.8) probably deserves a bit more credit for his BABIP, but a .276 career rate is still well above what he’d done this year with an increase in LDs and decrease in popups. Although facing them at home should improve the outlook, this Cincinnati offense has decent power and his reverse platoon tendency does not really help the cause much as the Reds bring that power from both sides of the plate.
Dylan Bundy (.261 – 81.8% – 10) has increased his velocity in recent starts and jumped up a full mph over his season average in his last one. He’s had a SwStr above 13% in each of his last two starts, though that’s still only resulted in 10 strikeouts (50 batters). It’s still an improvement and something to watch for, but he’s allowed all 12 of his HRs over his last 10 starts. His 31.9 GB% is going to be a problem in that park if his strikeout rate does not meet his SwStr% or even if it does without any ability to stifle hard contact. Cleveland may be the hottest offense on the slate (15.5 K% last seven days).
Justin Nicolino (.275 – 81.4% – 20) has reduced his hard contact rate by nearly 10 points this season, but it’s an extremely small sample size and not very predictive at this point. Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Washington’s mere 102 wRC+ vs LHP.
Austin Bibens-Dirx (.189 – 83.3% – 12.1)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hector Velazquez hasn’t been awful in nine AAA starts (15.1 K-BB%). The Mexican import has an 8.6 K-BB% and 50 GB% (30.8 Hard%) in against 35 major league batters this year. There’s just so little available information on him, but perhaps that works in his favor against a poor offense in Kansas City (8.8 HR/FB at home). If you’re playing multiple lineups, he could serve as a reasonable SP2 in a couple of them.
Johnny Cueto is missing bats at a career high rate (11.9 SwStr%), but has allowed multiple HRs in five of 14 starts with a career low 39.6 GB% and career high 35.6 Hard%. While he should be able to better navigate that in San Francisco (he really hasn’t), it may be a different story on the road. The good news is that four of his five multi-homer games have come in power boosting parks (Arizona, Colorado, Cincinnati, Chicago NL). The new park in Atlanta has looked like a launching pad early on too though and that may only get worse over the summer, even if the offense that inhabits it does not have much power.
Gerrit Cole broke a string of bad results with seven innings of one run ball against Colorado, which was a good matchup for him at home, but he still only struck out three with just as many walks. His ground ball and contact authority rates are merely average, while lefties have torched him for a .372 wOBA, same as last year, but in 2016 he surrendered only three HRs to them. This year, he’s already up to 10. The Brewers will strike out a ton, but also have immense power at home and vs RHP as well as a 27.3 HR/FB over the most recent seven days.
Clayton Richard is still an elite ground ball generator, despite being below 60% now (58.3%). His 17.4 K-BB% and 77.6 GB% against LHBs wipes them off the board, but he’s more vulnerable to RHBs (9.1 K-BB%, 52.1 GB%, 33.2 Hard%). He gets a park downgrade, perhaps significantly depending on wind tonight, while the Cubs have been very successful against LHP (13.2 BB%, 18.7 HR/FB).
Scott Feldman has the lowest aEV (83.3%) and 95+ mph EV (25.4%) on the board. He gets a park upgrade against a high strikeout offense (25.2% vs RHP), but it’s not an entirely favorable matchup. The Rays have an 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and a significant dip in SwStr% over the last month has not been obvious in his K%.
Marco Estrada is missing bats at the best rate of his career, but remove Sanchez and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with the highest aEV (88.3 mph), Barrels/BBE (9.1%) and 95+ mph EV BBEs (37.1%) on the board. This makes Texas an incredibly unideal park for him to pitch in even if the offense that resides there is just average with a 23.5 K% vs RHP.
Tanner Roark has allowed 16 runs (13 earned) over his last 18.2 innings (four HRs) with just a 15.1 K% (8.6 SwStr%) and 19.4 Hard-Soft%. If he’s neither missing bats nor generating weak contact at his normal low rate, he’s not very useful to daily fantasy players.
Jason Hammel has been a bit better, not allowing a HR in his last two starts, but has struck out just eight of his last 55 batters. His fly ball tendencies were supposed to b play better in this park and they might against a Boston lineup that you can call below average, but this is not an overall negative run environment and they are still a difficult lineup to accumulate daily fantasy points against because they don’t strike out often.
Daniel Gossett is the seventh rated prospect for the A’s, though the 24 year-old only draws a 45 future value grading from Fangraphs. He has four workable pitches and decent control, which immediately gives him a leg up, though no real put away pitch. He both walked and struck out one Marlin in his first start, while allowing two HRs. He lasted just 62 pitches, though that was likely performance dictated. He only has the worst matchup on the board tonight.
Matt Garza has a 39.7 GB% and 24.5 Hard-Soft% over his last four starts.
Zack Wheeler got blasted by the Cubs in his last start and it wasn’t hard to see coming. His estimators have been above four the whole season and he’d allowed a hard hit rate above 40% in three of five games coming into that one. Since May 15th, he now has just a 40 GB% and 38.8 Hard% with a league average strikeout rate (20.8%), but also 10.4 BB%. The Dodgers will strike out a bit (23.4% vs RHP), but beat up on RHP at home.
R.A. Dickey has allowed nine HRs in seven home starts this year. He has a nice matchup, but the San Francisco offense has been a bit better with a 112 wRC+ over the last two weeks. We knew they probably weren’t that bad when healthy.
Anibal Sanchez has allowed nine HRs with a 46.7 Hard% in 21 innings and then another three in 15.2 AAA innings, though just one in his last 14.2 innings, striking out seven of 19 minor league batters in his last start.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.1% | Road | 17.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.1% | 7.1% | Home | 8.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.4% | Road | 25.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 14.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 3.2% | Home | 31.4% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 9.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.8% | 7.0% | Road | 13.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 5.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.4% | Road | 26.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 5.8% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 5.6% | 5.6% | Home | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% | ||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.2% | Home | 20.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.0% | Road | 20.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 7.6% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 17.1% | 8.6% | Road | 17.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.4% | Home | 22.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.5% | Home | 20.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.7% | Road | 24.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 12.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.5% | 6.6% | Home | 25.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 4.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 9.8% | 6.5% | Home | 9.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.8% | Road | 24.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 2.3% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.1% | Home | 18.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.4% | 8.0% | Home | 16.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.3% | 5.8% | Home | 20.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.4% | 6.8% | Road | 18.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.9% | Road | 17.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 5.8% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.2% | 10.4% | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 19.9% | 9.5% | RH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 4.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.0% | 8.8% | RH | 24.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.8% |
| Mets | Road | 19.8% | 9.1% | LH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | LH | 21.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 7.5% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Road | 18.4% | 8.9% | RH | 17.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Indians | Road | 19.0% | 9.4% | RH | 20.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.0% | 8.6% | RH | 24.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.0% |
| Royals | Home | 19.8% | 6.8% | RH | 21.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.6% |
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | RH | 21.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.3% | 8.6% | RH | 18.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.6% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 7.9% | RH | 19.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Road | 26.6% | 7.2% | LH | 24.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.8% | 8.6% | LH | 21.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.2% | RH | 23.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.8% | RH | 18.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.6% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Road | 19.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.8% | 9.6% | RH | 23.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.6% | RH | 25.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.5% | 9.6% | RH | 23.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 2017 | 46.7% | 25.7% | 34.7% | Road | 32.7% | 18.8% | 15.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 37.2% | 12.1% | 19.2% | 2017 | 37.2% | 12.1% | 19.2% | Home | 37.0% | 8.3% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 3.6% | 6.1% | Road | 32.6% | 12.5% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 14.3% | 18.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 2017 | 28.9% | 15.9% | 4.0% | Home | 29.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 16.7% | -2.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.5% | 13.7% | 7.3% | 2017 | 30.2% | 16.7% | 11.2% | Road | 28.0% | 20.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 11.1% | 7.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 2017 | 34.3% | 13.7% | 11.9% | Road | 30.6% | 11.3% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% | -30.0% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 56.3% | 33.3% | 37.5% | 2017 | 56.3% | 33.3% | 37.5% | Home | L14 Days | 56.3% | 33.3% | 37.5% | |||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 10.0% | 12.2% | Home | 28.3% | 11.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 15.0% | 11.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 2017 | 33.8% | 17.9% | 13.6% | Road | 31.8% | 13.3% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | -9.8% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 42.9% | 23.1% | 2017 | 30.8% | 42.9% | 23.1% | Road | 30.8% | 42.9% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 2017 | 35.0% | 17.8% | 21.9% | Home | 35.3% | 12.7% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 2017 | 29.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | Home | 29.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 0.0% | -11.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.8% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2017 | 35.6% | 18.4% | 21.0% | Road | 31.9% | 17.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 28.6% | 10.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 2017 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 5.2% | Home | 26.1% | 9.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.1% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 2017 | 23.8% | 20.0% | 14.3% | Home | 30.1% | 5.0% | 16.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2017 | 30.2% | 12.7% | 14.7% | Road | 30.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.8% | 11.9% | 19.4% | 2017 | 36.4% | 11.1% | 25.4% | Home | 40.3% | 17.2% | 27.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.3% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2017 | 28.9% | 18.3% | 3.9% | Home | 28.7% | 17.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 20.0% | 3.0% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.0% | 29.0% | 20.8% | 2017 | 34.0% | 29.0% | 20.8% | Home | 44.4% | 22.2% | 28.8% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 50.0% | 24.2% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 2017 | 29.3% | 14.5% | 7.3% | Road | 25.9% | 16.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 11.1% | -13.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.6% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2017 | 28.1% | 12.3% | 13.9% | Road | 23.4% | 12.0% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 29.9% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 34.0% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 2017 | 34.0% | 15.1% | 14.8% | Road | 28.7% | 7.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 20.0% | -3.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Home | 29.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | RH | 31.0% | 11.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 37.4% | 12.3% | 19.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.2% | 16.8% | 12.8% | RH | 30.8% | 16.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.6% | 17.9% | 14.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.6% | 17.0% | 17.6% | RH | 34.8% | 14.7% | 18.5% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Mets | Road | 37.6% | 17.0% | 20.2% | LH | 34.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | L7Days | 36.8% | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.0% | 16.3% | 14.0% | LH | 29.8% | 18.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 25.5% | 12.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 28.8% | 15.8% | 7.9% | RH | 29.9% | 15.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.5% | 18.6% | 10.2% |
| Astros | Road | 31.8% | 14.3% | 14.2% | RH | 31.8% | 15.2% | 14.5% | L7Days | 29.3% | 17.2% | 10.1% |
| Indians | Road | 36.3% | 12.7% | 19.3% | RH | 34.1% | 13.7% | 17.7% | L7Days | 32.7% | 20.0% | 12.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.6% | 19.7% | 16.8% | RH | 33.6% | 19.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 31.2% | 27.3% | 11.0% |
| Royals | Home | 32.0% | 8.8% | 13.0% | RH | 32.6% | 12.7% | 13.5% | L7Days | 30.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Reds | Road | 29.0% | 14.6% | 9.2% | RH | 28.9% | 14.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 31.6% | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.4% | 12.5% | 13.3% | RH | 36.1% | 10.1% | 18.6% | L7Days | 37.9% | 11.3% | 21.2% |
| Braves | Home | 29.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | RH | 31.2% | 10.9% | 13.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| Padres | Road | 30.3% | 15.4% | 8.5% | LH | 30.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 2.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.3% | 14.7% | 11.3% | LH | 31.1% | 17.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.3% | 15.8% | 13.5% | RH | 32.8% | 15.5% | 12.7% | L7Days | 36.6% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | RH | 30.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 16.3% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Road | 30.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | RH | 28.1% | 9.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 27.8% | 14.0% | 3.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.9% | 12.6% | 19.0% | RH | 42.7% | 12.5% | 27.8% | L7Days | 42.6% | 10.9% | 27.2% |
| Rays | Home | 36.5% | 15.4% | 18.3% | RH | 36.3% | 18.9% | 19.3% | L7Days | 34.8% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.0% | 16.5% | 10.5% | RH | 31.0% | 14.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 27.6% | 14.9% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.3% | 16.5% | 20.9% | RH | 34.5% | 14.4% | 19.5% | L7Days | 36.0% | 25.0% | 21.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.8% | 10.1% | 2.06 | 28.6% | 15.4% | 1.86 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 13.1% | 7.7% | 1.70 | 12.8% | 7.5% | 1.71 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 35.6% | 13.6% | 2.62 | 36.6% | 12.6% | 2.90 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 28.1% | 12.6% | 2.23 | 31.6% | 14.5% | 2.18 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.09 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.10 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 30.0% | 14.5% | 2.07 | 38.9% | 20.3% | 1.92 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 5.6% | 8.1% | 0.69 | 5.6% | 8.1% | 0.69 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.72 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 1.66 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 | 14.8% | 7.0% | 2.11 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 17.1% | 8.0% | 2.14 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 1.67 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.2% | 11.4% | 1.86 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 2.06 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.2% | 8.7% | 1.98 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.97 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 23.1% | 11.9% | 1.94 | 26.6% | 13.7% | 1.94 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.28 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.45 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 15.5% | 6.4% | 2.42 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 2.77 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.16 | 28.8% | 12.9% | 2.23 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 18.1% | 9.3% | 1.95 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 13.3% | 7.6% | 1.75 | 14.7% | 8.4% | 1.75 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 17.3% | 6.6% | 2.62 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 2.45 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.0% | 8.0% | 2.38 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 3.20 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.2% | 9.3% | 2.06 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 1.85 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.38 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.42 |
Dylan Bundy is our only full season outlier and not by too much, though there should be some optimism in his future, especially since he’s increased his SwStr% over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 9 | 4.33 | -4.67 | 5.29 | -3.71 | 7.9 | -1.1 | 9.06 | 0.06 | 0 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 3.28 | 5.2 | 1.92 | 5.43 | 2.15 | 5.16 | 1.88 | 5.85 | 2.57 | 3.04 | 5.28 | 2.24 | 5.34 | 2.3 | 5.21 | 2.17 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 3 | 3.42 | 0.42 | 3.29 | 0.29 | 2.34 | -0.66 | 3.93 | 0.93 | 4.18 | 3.34 | -0.84 | 2.76 | -1.42 | 2.33 | -1.85 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.23 | 3.16 | 0.93 | 2.97 | 0.74 | 3.21 | 0.98 | 2.87 | 0.64 | 2.36 | 2.99 | 0.63 | 2.63 | 0.27 | 3.6 | 1.24 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.3 | 3.95 | -0.35 | 3.63 | -0.67 | 3.86 | -0.44 | 4.48 | 0.18 | 3.41 | 3.66 | 0.25 | 3.5 | 0.09 | 3.34 | -0.07 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.15 | 3.34 | -0.81 | 3.26 | -0.89 | 3.26 | -0.89 | 3.26 | -0.89 | 2.37 | 2.22 | -0.15 | 2.1 | -0.27 | 0.98 | -1.39 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 16.2 | 5.95 | -10.25 | 6.64 | -9.56 | 11.24 | -4.96 | 11.26 | -4.94 | 16.2 | 5.98 | -10.22 | 6.64 | -9.56 | 11.24 | -4.96 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 3.29 | 4.93 | 1.64 | 5.13 | 1.84 | 4.47 | 1.18 | 5.45 | 2.16 | 3.9 | 4.86 | 0.96 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 5.34 | 1.44 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.54 | 4.23 | -0.31 | 4.03 | -0.51 | 4.58 | 0.04 | 4.60 | 0.06 | 8.2 | 4.92 | -3.28 | 4.61 | -3.59 | 6.67 | -1.53 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 6.48 | 4.53 | -1.95 | 4.27 | -2.21 | 7.46 | 0.98 | 8.02 | 1.54 | 0 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.77 | 4.48 | 0.71 | 4.52 | 0.75 | 5.15 | 1.38 | 5.41 | 1.64 | 4.68 | 4.81 | 0.13 | 4.87 | 0.19 | 5.86 | 1.18 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.05 | 4.94 | -0.11 | 5.31 | 0.26 | 4.41 | -0.64 | 5.21 | 0.16 | 3.52 | 4.51 | 0.99 | 4.73 | 1.21 | 3.63 | 0.11 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.57 | 4.02 | -0.55 | 3.84 | -0.73 | 4.45 | -0.12 | 4.41 | -0.16 | 4.71 | 3.68 | -1.03 | 3.57 | -1.14 | 5.33 | 0.62 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.89 | 3.9 | 0.01 | 3.67 | -0.22 | 3.52 | -0.37 | 3.08 | -0.81 | 4.45 | 3.6 | -0.85 | 3.59 | -0.86 | 3.43 | -1.02 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.15 | 4.96 | 0.81 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 5.37 | 1.22 | 5.70 | 1.55 | 6.43 | 3.96 | -2.47 | 3.87 | -2.56 | 6.57 | 0.14 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.54 | 3.63 | -0.91 | 3.88 | -0.66 | 3.73 | -0.81 | 6.13 | 1.59 | 6.49 | 3.25 | -3.24 | 3.35 | -3.14 | 4.09 | -2.4 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.17 | 4.61 | 0.44 | 4.43 | 0.26 | 4.06 | -0.11 | 4.96 | 0.79 | 6.75 | 5.06 | -1.69 | 4.97 | -1.78 | 4.79 | -1.96 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 5.35 | 5.43 | 0.08 | 5.38 | 0.03 | 6.02 | 0.67 | 7.81 | 2.46 | 6.75 | 5.37 | -1.38 | 5.6 | -1.15 | 5.65 | -1.1 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 3.41 | 4.29 | 0.88 | 4.13 | 0.72 | 5.93 | 2.52 | 6.06 | 2.65 | 3.95 | 4.42 | 0.47 | 4.21 | 0.26 | 6.39 | 2.44 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.29 | 4.57 | 0.28 | 4.2 | -0.09 | 4.28 | -0.01 | 4.50 | 0.21 | 4.28 | 3.99 | -0.29 | 3.65 | -0.63 | 4.38 | 0.1 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.39 | 4.47 | 0.08 | 4.32 | -0.07 | 4.15 | -0.24 | 4.53 | 0.14 | 3.86 | 4.08 | 0.22 | 3.96 | 0.1 | 3.81 | -0.05 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 4.48 | 4.56 | 0.08 | 4.21 | -0.27 | 4.37 | -0.11 | 5.95 | 1.47 | 5.54 | 4.91 | -0.63 | 4.46 | -1.08 | 4.52 | -1.02 |
Clayton Kershaw has a .250 BABIP. It’s nearly consistent with his .270 career BABIP and his profile is still strong if not elite. I’d be slightly skeptical, but down right adamant about the inability to sustain an 89% strand rate, though he is one of the best in history with a 78.8 career LOB%.
Corey Kluber has a .324 BABIP and just a 71 LOB%. The BABIP isn’t far from his career rate and the defense doesn’t help. He’s always been a league average strand rate guy, though high strikeout guys usually are better, though it’s been a completely different pitcher since returning.
Sam Gaviglio has a .237 BABIP and 81.0 LOB%, but if we give him credit for a few more strikeouts in his most recent starts and some positive regression in a 29.0 HR/FB perhaps we’re looking at something not too far below a league average pitcher in that park?
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.311 | 0.379 | 0.068 | 31.1% | 0.216 | 5.7% | 80.8% | 90 | 14.70% | 10.40% | 75 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 0.285 | 0.189 | -0.096 | 37.2% | 0.205 | 12.1% | 89.2% | 86.8 | 9.00% | 7.10% | 78 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.288 | 0.300 | 0.012 | 46.9% | 0.185 | 10.7% | 76.0% | 86.3 | 1.20% | 0.60% | 81 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 46.4% | 0.206 | 12.2% | 83.2% | 85.4 | 6.70% | 4.50% | 253 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.300 | 0.341 | 0.041 | 58.3% | 0.223 | 5.6% | 89.5% | 85.3 | 4.20% | 3.20% | 285 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.307 | 0.324 | 0.017 | 44.8% | 0.196 | 11.8% | 81.2% | 87 | 6.30% | 3.90% | 143 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 53.3% | 0.067 | 0.0% | 91.3% | ||||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.311 | 0.261 | -0.05 | 31.9% | 0.214 | 15.0% | 86.3% | 87.6 | 8.00% | 5.90% | 261 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.306 | 0.294 | -0.012 | 46.0% | 0.204 | 6.0% | 87.1% | 86.2 | 8.70% | 6.50% | 263 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 0.315 | 0.304 | -0.011 | 50.0% | 0.231 | 0.0% | 84.9% | ||||
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.295 | 0.247 | -0.048 | 34.8% | 0.249 | 6.8% | 81.9% | 87.1 | 6.60% | 4.60% | 183 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.302 | 0.316 | 0.014 | 35.3% | 0.213 | 10.8% | 89.8% | 87.9 | 6.80% | 5.00% | 237 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.318 | 0.310 | -0.008 | 39.6% | 0.263 | 9.2% | 84.9% | 87.6 | 7.70% | 5.40% | 261 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.289 | 0.323 | 0.034 | 48.2% | 0.195 | 2.7% | 84.2% | 85.5 | 4.30% | 2.90% | 232 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.285 | 0.275 | -0.01 | 56.1% | 0.195 | 0.0% | 87.1% | 86.2 | 4.80% | 3.40% | 42 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.304 | 0.336 | 0.032 | 34.9% | 0.205 | 7.8% | 79.9% | 88.3 | 9.10% | 6.10% | 232 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.301 | 0.291 | -0.01 | 42.7% | 0.213 | 13.0% | 89.0% | 86.7 | 5.80% | 4.40% | 154 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.285 | 0.278 | -0.007 | 49.6% | 0.181 | 15.9% | 86.3% | 84.9 | 6.50% | 4.90% | 260 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.285 | 0.237 | -0.048 | 53.4% | 0.165 | 6.5% | 91.6% | 87.4 | 7.50% | 5.80% | 106 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.282 | 0.305 | 0.023 | 43.7% | 0.284 | 11.3% | 87.6% | 83.3 | 5.20% | 3.70% | 232 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.298 | 0.308 | 0.01 | 46.2% | 0.217 | 7.4% | 85.4% | 86.6 | 5.80% | 4.20% | 260 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.316 | 0.317 | 0.001 | 47.6% | 0.238 | 9.4% | 85.5% | 86.8 | 7.50% | 5.00% | 187 |
Jon Lester has been a league average or better popup generators most years, but has induced just two this year. He’s not getting any free outs with his batted balls.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) has not always been what he was, but does have six starts of at least seven innings with eight or more Ks. It’s still in there and this is a good spot at home for him. He costs around $2K more than any other pitcher.
Jon Lester (2) may have lost something. He is getting older, but he’s still a quality pitcher with the top matchup on the board.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (3) has not only dominated with whiffs, but with better contact over a two or three game stretch that I can ever remember seeing. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on the board and we can’t expect a near 40% strikeout rate with a hard hit rate below 10% to continue, but he doesn’t have to be that good. It should be interesting to see who’s more popular tonight, him or Kershaw.
Value Tier Three
Brad Peacock (4) depends on your risk tolerance. He looked like a fluke two starts back when he walked four and struck out just one, but followed that up with 10 strikeouts. He could self-destruct and we wouldn’t expect him to sustain a strikeout rate well above 30%. The A’s could keep him there for one more start, but the power is a concern if he starts walking too many.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Sam Gaviglio scares me against Detroit because they still hit the ball very hard and he allows a lot of hard contact, but the strikeout increase in a great park with a good outfield defense at a low price is intriguing today in looking for secondary pitchers. I wouldn’t touch him on one pitcher sites and his SwStr% doesn’t really support the entire strikeout increase. You have to use two pitchers on DK though and probably can’t fit two of the guys above in the same lineup.
I suppose some players will gravitate towards higher strikeout or swinging strike guys like Cueto, Estrada and Bundy as well. They could all succeed, but those guys all have some sort of contact and/or matchup problems tonight where the cost is much less than ideal when related to performance.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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