Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 2nd

While it’s a pleasure to get to spend a relaxing Sunday watching Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw pitch, as a daily fantasy pitching writer, I feel a little cheated because I may miss them entirely this week, making my job a little tougher. Those are the easy writeups. And Sunday also claimed Sale and Scherzer and Velasquez and Salazar and Price, all of whom possibly top any pitcher on the board today. Consider that of all those with at least 10 innings pitched this year, Jeremy Hellickson tops the board with a 25.7 K% and he may not even be playable tonight in St Louis.

We’ve updated league averages (for starting pitchers) in some of the headers today and there are a couple of interesting notes through April of 2016 compared to last season. First, HR/FB is up a full point from last year to 11.8% this month. Strikeout rates continue to climb, up from 19.5% in 2015 to 20.6% the first month of this season, though SwStr has only climbed from 9.3% to 9.4%. League average Z-Contact for starting pitchers has dropped from 87.7% to 86.6%. This is because batters are swinging overall much less (46.6% to 44.9%).

Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB/FB
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
A.J. Griffin TEX 14.1 4.74 6.25 0.82 1.02 6.39 3.73 TOR 110 101 85
Adam Wainwright STL -15 3.8 6.69 1.64 0.97 3.97 4.24 PHI 89 78 72
Bartolo Colon NYM -15.4 3.88 6.31 1.11 0.87 3.77 4 ATL 58 63 52
Brandon Finnegan CIN -7.7 3.93 5.44 1.55 1.02 3.13 5.26 SFO 86 107 121
Dallas Keuchel HOU -0.5 3.05 7. 3.21 1.01 2.26 3.26 MIN 83 71 95
Edinson Volquez KAN 10.2 4.27 6.05 1.48 1.04 4.08 4.03 WAS 92 76 54
Gerrit Cole PIT 14.2 3.22 6.31 1.51 0.95 3.2 3.5 CHC 123 114 98
Gio Gonzalez WAS 3.7 3.63 5.77 1.7 1.04 3.7 3.28 KAN 109 93 74
James Shields SDG 3.2 3.79 6.4 1.3 0.86 3.67 5.63 COL 102 91 117
Jason Hammel CHC 13.9 3.5 5.65 1.02 0.95 3.22 2.79 PIT 124 117 128
Jered Weaver ANA 15.4 4.56 6.19 0.7 1.05 5.91 5.96 MIL 103 88 89
Jeremy Hellickson PHI -12.4 4.02 5.23 1.05 0.97 4.14 3.26 STL 115 123 93
Jimmy Nelson MIL -5.2 4.04 5.88 1.65 1.05 3.49 3.93 ANA 92 83 152
Johnny Cueto SFO -2.1 3.5 6.86 1.24 1.02 3.69 3.03 CIN 81 66 50
Jonathan Gray COL 4.2 3.72 4.46 1.38 0.86 3.46 3.03 SDG 67 67 78
Jose Berrios MIN -4 3.79 4. 1.33 1.01 3.79 HOU 112 97 68
Kendall Graveman OAK -16.1 4.22 5.52 1.84 0.95 4.52 3.55 SEA 117 107 121
Mike Foltynewicz ATL -7.5 4.3 5.6 0.72 0.87 3.89 NYM 91 110 121
Nate Karns SEA -6.4 3.88 5.57 1.15 0.95 3.79 4.48 OAK 72 90 93
R.A. Dickey TOR 2.7 4.4 6.38 1.15 1.02 4.55 4.56 TEX 83 93 108


Bartolo Colon continues to be just good enough and seems to find himself in a great matchup nearly every time out (Phillies twice, Cincinnati, and now Atlanta). He’s been surviving a heck of a lot of hard contact so far (15.0 HR/FB, 23.3 Hard-Soft%, 30.4 LD%), but the Braves don’t hit the ball hard (2.6 HR/FB, 1.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He misses just enough bats to be useful and won’t hurt himself further with walks. This is pretty clearly the best spot for any pitcher tonight.

Dallas Keuchel continues to throw more than a mph slower than last year and has allowed 11 ERs in his last 12 IP, though the underlying numbers look a bit better. He’s walked just three of his last 83 batters after 10 of his first 54 and has an 18.5 SwStr% with a 23.8 Hard% over his last two starts. His ground ball rate is still well down from last year, but still 12th in the majors with a SwStr% higher than last season. Additionally, Minnesota hasn’t handled LHP (25.5 K%, 6.9 HR/FB) well this year.

Edinson Volquez has recently proven to be the pitcher we all thought him to be after a short stretch of thinking he might be something better. He was unmercifully pounded by the Angels in his last start and struck out a total of 10 with seven walks over his last three starts. His best starts have come at home though, and that makes sense considering Kansas City is a park tailor suited to his skill set. He has a 5.7 HR/FB at home since last season and will miss something close to a league average rate of bats. The Nationals are a two man offense against RHP.

Gerrit Cole is certainly the pitcher you want use on first look based on reputation and ERA, but it does not appear to be that cut and clean upon deeper look. He has yet to go beyond six innings in any start and his SwStr% has been below average in each of the three starts since his first, decreasing in each outing. His ERA sits where it does because he’s allowed just one HR and that came in Colorado, but he does have a 7.7 career HR/FB and pitches in a favorable park. The other issue is the Cubs. Last year they were all strikeouts and power, which made them often a great team to use pitchers against. This year, they’ve retained that power, but have significantly reduced their strikeout rate below league average and increased their team walk rate into double digits.

Gio Gonzalez is another guy who initially looks more favorable until you see who he’s facing. It’s not a deal breaker though. He’s missing more bats than he did last year or at least until the end of last season and the Royals have been striking out at a near average pace. That doesn’t mean they’re going to continue to, but it does appear that it’s going to be more than last season. They’re also hitting for a lot more power vs LHP, but I wouldn’t expect that go continue either considering their -2.3 Hard-Soft%. We also know that Gio keeps the ball in the park (8.5 career HR/FB) and he’s been pleasantly surprising in his endurance this season. He’s gone at least six innings in every start, probably because he’s sporting a career low 6.8 BB% (career high F-Strike% and Zone% as well).

Jason Hammel has done well with what he’s been allowed to do. He’s gone exactly six innings in all four starts, allowing a total of two ERs and a 23.7 K%. He’s exceeded 90 pitches in just one of those four starts though. It’s pretty clearly the plan not to let him see the seventh inning as he’s averaged 5.2 IP over the last two calendar years now. Pittsburgh has been a strong offense, more due to plate discipline than power through April. They are one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, though the park favors pitching.

Johnny Cueto has seemingly returned to form in San Francisco and he hasn’t even needed the BABIP magic to do it. He’s simply allowed just one HR. It’s a park that elevates the performance of most pitchers, but he hasn’t really been challenged by an above average offense yet. He returns to the scene of most of the triumphs throughout his career, which is not nearly as forgiving against power, but Cincinnati doesn’t have much of that (8.1 HR/FB vs RHP). They’re one of the top matchups on the board tonight. One issue to watch out for though, is that he was allowed to throw 119 pitches in his last start and he doesn’t answer to Dusty Baker anymore. Bruce Bochy will be more cognizant of his pitch count tonight. He has completed at least seven innings in every start so far though.

Jonathan Gray has allowed 11 ERs through 8.2 innings all at Coors this season. He has missed bats at an above average rate though with stuff that should really play up outside of Colorado and in San Diego of all places. He’s a sinker, slider guy with 95 mph heat, but that should play well against a nearly entirely RH San Diego offense. For his short career, he has a 3.46 xFIP and 30.1 K% on the road with a 5.0 HR/FB. These samples are too small to be taken at face value, but it shows that he might at least be a solid pitcher on the road. Add to this that the Padres have struck out 26.0% on the road and 34.6% over the last week and this is probably the most favorable spot outside facing the Braves tonight. We won’t delve into this season’s numbers any further below without even 10 innings under his belt yet.

Jose Berrios walked two of the 20 batters he faced in his debut, but also struck out five and missed 10 bats. It was a pretty adequate performance despite stranding fewer than half his runners with a .500 BABIP. He faces a Houston offense with a 34.1 Hard% and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but they’ve also struck out an absurd 27.0% against righties.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)

James Shields (.232 BABIP – 78.5 LOB% – 11.1 HR/FB) has hidden his super tankage with a low BABIP (though there is absolutely nothing supporting it) and his HR rate coming back to normal. Three of his four HRs allowed came in one game in Colorado and he’s gone at least six innings in all five starts, but he had just a 2.1 SwStr% in his last start and has been below average in three of five and has walked four batters in two of his last three starts. I guess you can’t hit it out of the park if he doesn’t throw it in the strike zone.

Jimmy Nelson (.214 BABIP – 81.1 LOB% – 20.0 HR/FB) is well liked among the DFS community for some reason. This may be because he started last season showing potentially real skill improvement, but unfortunately an elite ground ball rate with an average K% didn’t last. Balls shouldn’t continue flying out the park as they have, so he should be able to keep his ERA below five, but that’s not all that encouraging. He’s walked exactly four in three of his last four starts.

Brandon Finnegan (.195 BABIP – 69.0 LOB% – 16.7 HR/FB) was shutting out the Mets into the seventh inning before exiting after Cespedes hit a pinch hit three run homer, but still walked three of 27 batters faced, has yet to complete seven innings, and hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts since his first start. Some of that wouldn’t be an issue with a low cost, but faces a tough offense in what can be a difficult park for a pitcher without questionable control, HR issues, and a 20.7 Hard-Soft%.

A.J. Griffin (.211 BABIP – 77.6 LOB% – 6.1 HR/FB) went eight innings, allowing one run and striking out five Yankees despite just three swings and misses. He does have the fourth highest Soft% (28.8) in the league and second lowest aEV (86.75 mph) on today’s board (30 BB min.), but I don’t see his skillset being very success often in Toronto. You might want to take special advantage of his obscene $9.2K price tag on DraftKings and not use him twice as much.

Jered Weaver (.289 BABIP85.0 LOB% – 9.5 LOB%) is throwing just 82 mph though and beating the hell out of his estimators. This is something he’s done for most of his career, but that’s mostly due to an ability to generate popups and a .271 career BABIP, not an excessive strand rate and something he also failed to do at all last year. This is not like those other years. His SwStr% would suggest more strikeouts, but it was even better last season without much success in his K% either (13.5).

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Jeremy Hellickson has successfully been missing bats this season, but has experienced a great deal of hard contact in the air when he doesn’t (0.83 GB/FB, 32.4 Hard%, 13.3 HR/FB). St Louis is tough on power, though the Cardinals have a 13.4 HR/FB at home through April. They’re unmercifully pounding RHP (15.2 HR/FB, 14.0 Hard-Soft%) with a group of RH bats that hit same handed pitching very well in the middle of the lineup. There’s not much separation between him and where Tier Four starts below though.

Nate Karns has continued to generate swings and misses at a league average rate, but he has a 15.8 HR/FB that matches his 15.4 career rate despite two very friendly home parks, so I don’t think Oakland will do all that much for him. More concerning is that he’s walked 10 of his last 74 batters and has only gone more than 5.1 innings in one of four starts. In fact, he’s averaged well under six innings per start for his career so far. It’s not a bad matchup, though one with a low strikeout offense that doesn’t necessarily play to his strengths at an average or higher price.

Kendall Graveman doesn’t often allow contact in the air (20 fly balls through four starts), but when he does, it’s often left the park (four HRs). He’s missing more bats and that’s not necessarily turned into a much above average rate of strikeouts, but his high HR rate has cancelled out a low BABIP and high strand rate (85.0%). This is even more puzzling as he had a .302 BABIP last year behind the same poor defense. His 11.8 LD% won’t last. All that said, I’d still probably be fine with him, but the Seattle offense has been really good (they under-performed last year) and hit for a lot of power. The park might pull them down, but no more than Safeco often does. This is a pitcher who is not entirely off my radar yet, but probably is tonight.

R.A. Dickey

Adam Wainwright had a season high five strikeouts last time out and proclaimed that he felt he pitched well, but that’s not really setting the ball very high and his 5.4 SwStr% was his second lowest mark of the season with 43.8% of batted balls classified as hit hard. I see no value in this version of him at current prices even against the Phillies.

Mike Foltynewicz has walked 14 of the 88 minor league batters he’s faced through four starts with a 1.64 ERA only due to a .212 BABIP. He should find himself in a lot of trouble if his control goes awry tonight.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
A.J. Griffin Rangers L2 Years 17.2% 9.1% Road 12.5% 12.5% L14 Days 21.6% 5.9%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals L2 Years 17.7% 5.6% Home 11.1% 4.4% L14 Days 14.6% 4.2%
Bartolo Colon Mets L2 Years 17.4% 3.3% Home 19.1% 3.0% L14 Days 17.8% 4.4%
Brandon Finnegan Reds L2 Years 22.5% 10.7% Home 26.1% 11.7% L14 Days 14.6% 10.4%
Dallas Keuchel Astros L2 Years 20.7% 6.0% Home 27.2% 5.5% L14 Days 18.5% 3.7%
Edinson Volquez Royals L2 Years 18.3% 8.9% Home 17.9% 7.8% L14 Days 14.3% 5.4%
Gerrit Cole Pirates L2 Years 24.6% 5.8% Home 23.3% 4.9% L14 Days 20.4% 4.1%
Gio Gonzalez Nationals L2 Years 23.3% 8.7% Road 22.8% 9.4% L14 Days 26.3% 7.5%
James Shields Padres L2 Years 21.2% 7.3% Home 26.2% 9.9% L14 Days 13.2% 11.3%
Jason Hammel Cubs L2 Years 23.4% 6.2% Road 27.3% 6.9% L14 Days 28.9% 4.4%
Jered Weaver Angels L2 Years 16.1% 6.2% Road 9.0% 5.6% L14 Days 11.5% 7.7%
Jeremy Hellickson Phillies L2 Years 19.8% 6.8% Road 20.6% 7.1% L14 Days 28.6% 8.2%
Jimmy Nelson Brewers L2 Years 19.3% 8.2% Home 23.5% 5.7% L14 Days 23.1% 9.6%
Johnny Cueto Giants L2 Years 22.3% 5.7% Road 18.8% 4.9% L14 Days 23.7% 1.7%
Jonathan Gray Rockies L2 Years 22.7% 7.4% Road 30.1% 9.6% L14 Days 27.3% 6.8%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 25.0% 10.0% Road L14 Days 25.0% 10.0%
Kendall Graveman Athletics L2 Years 16.3% 7.3% Home 13.5% 6.6% L14 Days 24.0% 8.0%
Mike Foltynewicz Braves L2 Years 18.8% 7.5% Road 24.6% 7.8% L14 Days
Nate Karns Mariners L2 Years 23.8% 9.4% Road 25.3% 9.8% L14 Days 22.0% 14.0%
R.A. Dickey Blue Jays L2 Years 16.5% 7.3% Home 16.8% 8.2% L14 Days 14.6% 6.3%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Blue Jays Home 24.2% 9.5% RH 24.7% 10.4% L7Days 25.2% 10.3%
Phillies Road 23.1% 7.0% RH 22.1% 6.8% L7Days 21.7% 9.4%
Braves Road 20.2% 9.0% RH 20.4% 9.8% L7Days 24.0% 8.9%
Giants Road 16.1% 9.3% LH 18.5% 8.2% L7Days 16.2% 13.2%
Twins Road 30.2% 8.8% LH 25.9% 9.5% L7Days 18.9% 7.2%
Nationals Road 22.5% 7.9% RH 20.8% 8.8% L7Days 21.9% 8.4%
Cubs Road 19.5% 12.0% RH 19.7% 13.2% L7Days 18.4% 17.1%
Royals Home 18.0% 7.6% LH 19.8% 5.6% L7Days 20.4% 6.9%
Rockies Road 20.8% 6.7% RH 18.7% 8.1% L7Days 19.5% 9.8%
Pirates Home 17.5% 12.1% RH 18.3% 9.7% L7Days 20.7% 9.8%
Brewers Home 24.8% 9.9% RH 25.6% 8.9% L7Days 22.2% 11.1%
Cardinals Home 21.7% 7.1% RH 20.5% 8.3% L7Days 23.0% 7.8%
Angels Road 13.4% 7.7% RH 16.0% 7.1% L7Days 12.6% 7.7%
Reds Home 19.1% 7.0% RH 21.7% 6.3% L7Days 25.1% 5.7%
Padres Home 22.2% 8.0% RH 26.0% 7.0% L7Days 34.6% 6.0%
Astros Home 26.6% 11.3% RH 27.0% 9.5% L7Days 26.5% 11.6%
Mariners Road 20.2% 8.6% RH 20.5% 10.3% L7Days 19.1% 13.6%
Mets Home 22.1% 9.9% RH 22.3% 9.0% L7Days 18.7% 10.7%
Athletics Home 17.6% 7.2% RH 19.3% 7.6% L7Days 17.7% 6.7%
Rangers Road 22.2% 6.6% RH 19.1% 7.8% L7Days 15.1% 6.1%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
A.J. Griffin Rangers L2 Years 31.5% 6.1% 2.7% 2016 31.5% 6.1% 2.7% Road 27.8% 5.0% -5.5% L14 Days 35.1% 7.7% 10.8%
Adam Wainwright Cardinals L2 Years 27.9% 6.4% 7.8% 2016 38.0% 11.8% 26.0% Home 31.6% 0.0% 21.1% L14 Days 33.3% 25.0% 17.9%
Bartolo Colon Mets L2 Years 29.4% 9.5% 14.2% 2016 32.9% 15.0% 23.3% Home 32.7% 11.8% 14.4% L14 Days 40.0% 20.0% 34.3%
Brandon Finnegan Reds L2 Years 31.9% 18.3% 11.8% 2016 36.6% 16.7% 20.7% Home 29.0% 30.8% 7.3% L14 Days 42.9% 23.1% 31.5%
Dallas Keuchel Astros L2 Years 20.9% 10.9% -2.5% 2016 28.6% 5.3% 8.2% Home 17.9% 7.4% -11.9% L14 Days 23.8% 12.5% 9.5%
Edinson Volquez Royals L2 Years 29.1% 8.4% 11.3% 2016 24.7% 7.4% 4.3% Home 32.7% 5.7% 18.7% L14 Days 22.2% 7.7% 2.2%
Gerrit Cole Pirates L2 Years 29.9% 6.8% 11.6% 2016 33.3% 5.0% 19.7% Home 31.9% 9.3% 12.0% L14 Days 35.1% 8.3% 24.3%
Gio Gonzalez Nationals L2 Years 26.5% 6.3% 7.0% 2016 28.2% 3.8% 7.1% Road 29.3% 5.9% 9.9% L14 Days 30.2% 6.3% 11.3%
James Shields Padres L2 Years 29.1% 13.2% 11.9% 2016 30.3% 11.1% 13.1% Home 31.0% 18.3% 13.7% L14 Days 25.6% 0.0% 7.6%
Jason Hammel Cubs L2 Years 31.5% 11.5% 14.0% 2016 26.2% 0.0% 3.2% Road 29.2% 8.2% 10.9% L14 Days 27.6% 0.0% 6.9%
Jered Weaver Angels L2 Years 28.4% 9.2% 8.7% 2016 35.0% 9.5% 21.2% Road 32.2% 11.1% 11.4% L14 Days 33.3% 8.0% 23.8%
Jeremy Hellickson Phillies L2 Years 33.9% 12.2% 17.8% 2016 32.4% 13.3% 14.8% Road 34.4% 11.8% 17.7% L14 Days 26.7% 16.7% 13.4%
Jimmy Nelson Brewers L2 Years 29.7% 11.8% 9.5% 2016 27.8% 20.0% 2.2% Home 29.7% 17.2% 7.6% L14 Days 22.9% 15.4% -5.7%
Johnny Cueto Giants L2 Years 25.1% 9.2% 3.5% 2016 23.4% 3.1% 1.9% Road 30.0% 9.9% 9.8% L14 Days 27.3% 6.7% 9.1%
Jonathan Gray Rockies L2 Years 36.1% 12.5% 15.8% 2016 34.5% 28.6% 20.7% Road 30.6% 5.0% 10.2% L14 Days 34.5% 28.6% 20.7%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2016 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% Road L14 Days 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kendall Graveman Athletics L2 Years 28.5% 15.5% 11.5% 2016 30.9% 25.0% 7.4% Home 32.6% 13.5% 15.0% L14 Days 36.4% 36.4% 21.2%
Mike Foltynewicz Braves L2 Years 30.7% 12.8% 10.8% 2016 Road 36.3% 18.8% 16.8% L14 Days
Nate Karns Mariners L2 Years 33.7% 13.8% 13.7% 2016 31.7% 15.8% 13.4% Road 33.8% 13.0% 11.9% L14 Days 34.4% 14.3% 12.5%
R.A. Dickey Blue Jays L2 Years 25.9% 10.6% 6.1% 2016 34.1% 10.3% 17.0% Home 24.4% 10.2% 6.3% L14 Days 34.2% 14.3% 15.8%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Blue Jays Home 32.2% 13.2% 15.9% RH 30.4% 11.8% 13.8% L7Days 35.5% 13.7% 18.1%
Phillies Road 32.0% 12.9% 12.1% RH 25.6% 9.2% 4.4% L7Days 26.0% 8.3% -0.7%
Braves Road 20.6% 2.2% 0.0% RH 23.6% 2.4% 2.4% L7Days 28.0% 4.3% 10.7%
Giants Road 30.0% 14.6% 9.2% LH 24.6% 11.5% 0.4% L7Days 31.5% 8.9% 15.1%
Twins Road 28.7% 9.8% 12.7% LH 26.3% 6.9% 9.5% L7Days 29.9% 8.2% 11.6%
Nationals Road 33.2% 17.1% 16.6% RH 30.8% 10.9% 13.2% L7Days 30.4% 11.8% 15.5%
Cubs Road 31.6% 15.9% 15.8% RH 31.5% 12.8% 14.2% L7Days 23.2% 5.1% 6.0%
Royals Home 29.8% 13.5% 5.8% LH 23.9% 14.6% -2.3% L7Days 28.6% 4.8% 5.9%
Rockies Road 35.8% 20.9% 14.6% RH 32.9% 14.3% 14.5% L7Days 33.9% 19.3% 20.6%
Pirates Home 27.0% 11.1% 6.9% RH 28.9% 9.7% 9.1% L7Days 28.2% 21.7% 7.5%
Brewers Home 35.1% 18.5% 21.1% RH 28.7% 14.7% 11.0% L7Days 30.4% 10.5% 14.4%
Cardinals Home 34.6% 13.4% 16.7% RH 33.0% 15.2% 14.0% L7Days 31.2% 11.5% 16.7%
Angels Road 23.6% 7.3% -1.9% RH 25.5% 10.9% 1.3% L7Days 26.4% 16.7% 4.6%
Reds Home 29.2% 13.5% 13.7% RH 32.3% 8.1% 15.1% L7Days 29.7% 3.8% 11.6%
Padres Home 25.2% 7.8% 9.7% RH 28.6% 9.0% 11.2% L7Days 32.6% 9.8% 10.9%
Astros Home 34.9% 11.4% 18.3% RH 34.1% 15.7% 15.6% L7Days 25.4% 7.3% 7.7%
Mariners Road 32.0% 17.4% 15.1% RH 30.3% 14.7% 11.3% L7Days 21.5% 17.0% 2.1%
Mets Home 28.4% 8.0% 4.5% RH 34.0% 13.6% 16.5% L7Days 28.4% 14.3% 6.5%
Athletics Home 28.8% 7.8% 11.1% RH 32.1% 10.5% 13.8% L7Days 31.8% 8.8% 17.2%
Rangers Road 27.8% 7.8% 7.5% RH 27.6% 8.2% 6.8% L7Days 26.8% 10.2% 4.2%

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
A.J. Griffin TEX 17.2% 7.1% 2.42 17.2% 7.1% 2.42
Adam Wainwright STL 11.1% 6.9% 1.61 11.1% 6.9% 1.61
Bartolo Colon NYM 21.7% 8.1% 2.68 21.7% 8.1% 2.68
Brandon Finnegan CIN 19.0% 10.7% 1.78 19.0% 10.7% 1.78
Dallas Keuchel HOU 19.6% 11.7% 1.68 19.6% 11.7% 1.68
Edinson Volquez KAN 19.5% 9.8% 1.99 19.5% 9.8% 1.99
Gerrit Cole PIT 20.9% 7.8% 2.68 20.9% 7.8% 2.68
Gio Gonzalez WAS 24.3% 10.2% 2.38 24.3% 10.2% 2.38
James Shields SDG 15.7% 8.4% 1.87 15.7% 8.4% 1.87
Jason Hammel CHC 23.7% 9.2% 2.58 23.7% 9.2% 2.58
Jered Weaver ANA 11.0% 7.4% 1.49 11.0% 7.4% 1.49
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 25.7% 11.4% 2.25 25.7% 11.4% 2.25
Jimmy Nelson MIL 19.4% 6.3% 3.08 19.4% 6.3% 3.08
Johnny Cueto SFO 22.6% 10.4% 2.17 22.6% 10.4% 2.17
Jonathan Gray COL 27.3% 10.5% 2.60 27.3% 10.5% 2.60
Jose Berrios MIN 25.0% 10.8% 2.31 25.0% 10.8% 2.31
Kendall Graveman OAK 20.0% 11.9% 1.68 20.0% 11.9% 1.68
Mike Foltynewicz ATL
Nate Karns SEA 25.0% 9.7% 2.58 25.0% 9.7% 2.58
R.A. Dickey TOR 18.2% 9.6% 1.90 18.2% 9.6% 1.90


Bartolo Colon – More trivial than anything else, his SwStr has been above 11% in two starts, but below 6% in his other two. I’d still be surprised if he remained above 8% or a 20 K% for much longer.

Dallas Keuchel is has thrown his slider 44.4% and 30.8% of the time in his last two starts, leading to a 23.2 and 14.0 SwStr%. He’s doing it a bit differently, perhaps due the reduced stuff, but now has a SwStr% much higher than last season

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
A.J. Griffin TEX 2.52 4.74 2.22 4.8 2.28 3.81 1.29 2.52 4.74 2.22 4.8 2.28 3.81 1.29
Adam Wainwright STL 7.16 5.34 -1.82 5.23 -1.93 5.22 -1.94 7.16 5.35 -1.81 5.23 -1.93 5.22 -1.94
Bartolo Colon NYM 3.42 3.31 -0.11 2.96 -0.46 3.31 -0.11 3.42 3.32 -0.1 2.96 -0.46 3.31 -0.11
Brandon Finnegan CIN 3.86 4.86 1 4.77 0.91 5.45 1.59 3.86 4.86 1 4.77 0.91 5.45 1.59
Dallas Keuchel HOU 4.41 3.89 -0.52 3.49 -0.92 2.99 -1.42 4.41 3.89 -0.52 3.49 -0.92 2.99 -1.42
Edinson Volquez KAN 3.34 3.86 0.52 3.78 0.44 3.26 -0.08 3.34 3.86 0.52 3.78 0.44 3.26 -0.08
Gerrit Cole PIT 2.78 3.74 0.96 3.53 0.75 2.75 -0.03 2.78 3.75 0.97 3.53 0.75 2.75 -0.03
Gio Gonzalez WAS 1.42 3.47 2.05 3.49 2.07 2.42 1 1.42 3.48 2.06 3.49 2.07 2.42 1
James Shields SDG 3.55 4.91 1.36 4.73 1.18 4.63 1.08 3.55 4.91 1.36 4.73 1.18 4.63 1.08
Jason Hammel CHC 0.75 3.94 3.19 3.94 3.19 2.47 1.72 0.75 3.94 3.19 3.94 3.19 2.47 1.72
Jered Weaver ANA 3.86 5.74 1.88 6.03 2.17 5.5 1.64 3.86 5.74 1.88 6.03 2.17 5.5 1.64
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 3.81 3.28 -0.53 3.48 -0.33 3.71 -0.1 3.81 3.28 -0.53 3.48 -0.33 3.71 -0.1
Jimmy Nelson MIL 3.16 4.42 1.26 4.27 1.11 5.29 2.13 3.16 4.42 1.26 4.27 1.11 5.29 2.13
Johnny Cueto SFO 2.65 3.26 0.61 3.09 0.44 2.12 -0.53 2.65 3.27 0.62 3.09 0.44 2.12 -0.53
Jonathan Gray COL 11.42 3.01 -8.41 2.56 -8.86 4.32 -7.1 11.42 3.03 -8.39 2.56 -8.86 4.32 -7.1
Jose Berrios MIN 11.25 3.79 -7.46 3.96 -7.29 2.8 -8.45 11.25 3.79 -7.46 3.96 -7.29 2.8 -8.45
Kendall Graveman OAK 4.03 3.68 -0.35 3.67 -0.36 5.2 1.17 4.03 3.69 -0.34 3.67 -0.36 5.2 1.17
Mike Foltynewicz ATL
Nate Karns SEA 3.63 4.12 0.49 3.82 0.19 4.26 0.63 3.63 4.12 0.49 3.82 0.19 4.26 0.63
R.A. Dickey TOR 6.75 4.42 -2.33 4.31 -2.44 4.1 -2.65 6.75 4.42 -2.33 4.31 -2.44 4.1 -2.65


Dallas Keuchel has seen his entire loss in GB% (six points) go into his LD% this year, which is a good way to generate a .330 BABIP, though the Houston defense has been surprisingly poor at turning batted balls into outs. A 67.3 LOB% should prop up and it looks like he’s going to be utilizing his slider more now due to not getting the same results with his sinker as last season.

Gio Gonzalez has benefited from a .243 BABIP, but he has an incredibly low LD% and his other BABIP indicators are elite in the early going as well. Expect his BABIP to rise as the team’s does though, which will also bring his 80.5 LOB% back in line. He’s allowed just one HR this season, so a 3.8 HR/FB is a little too low even for him. His SIERA and xFIP are still excellent though and might not even be a true indicator of a regressed ERA due to his proven HR suppression talents.

Jason Hammel hasn’t allowed a HR with a .262 BABIP, stranding 92.3% of his runners. The interesting thing is that his BABIP is still higher than what the Cubs have allowed. They’re turning everything off the bat into outs. He has a career 11.1 HR/FB though, so as soon as the wind starts blowing out at Wrigley…….but Pittsburgh is tough on RH power (which is really all the Pirates have) and he could continue his streak at least another start.

BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact
A.J. Griffin TEX 0.276 0.211 -0.065 0.178 21.2% 86.4%
Adam Wainwright STL 0.285 0.333 0.048 0.245 2.9% 95.2%
Bartolo Colon NYM 0.332 0.329 -0.003 0.304 15.0% 86.9%
Brandon Finnegan CIN 0.272 0.195 -0.077 0.247 3.3% 86.8%
Dallas Keuchel HOU 0.319 0.330 0.011 0.25 10.5% 82.3%
Edinson Volquez KAN 0.277 0.308 0.031 0.161 7.4% 88.4%
Gerrit Cole PIT 0.289 0.308 0.019 0.194 0.0% 92.0%
Gio Gonzalez WAS 0.267 0.243 -0.024 0.134 15.4% 84.7%
James Shields SDG 0.306 0.232 -0.074 0.227 5.6% 88.2%
Jason Hammel CHC 0.249 0.262 0.013 0.217 13.0% 91.5%
Jered Weaver ANA 0.272 0.289 0.017 0.213 9.5% 83.2%
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 0.280 0.300 0.02 0.225 10.0% 79.0%
Jimmy Nelson MIL 0.329 0.214 -0.115 0.135 16.7% 92.6%
Johnny Cueto SFO 0.332 0.311 -0.021 0.248 12.5% 88.6%
Jonathan Gray COL 0.310 0.519 0.209 0.31 14.3% 82.9%
Jose Berrios MIN 0.311 0.500 0.189 0.417 33.3% 83.3%
Kendall Graveman OAK 0.285 0.234 -0.051 0.118 5.0% 88.2%
Mike Foltynewicz ATL 0.303
Nate Karns SEA 0.277 0.281 0.004 0.267 5.3% 91.0%
R.A. Dickey TOR 0.290 0.353 0.063 0.227 10.3% 80.9%

Pitcher Notes & Summary

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Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings, especially on our first day of doing so today. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Jonathan Gray (2) is our upside play of the night in one of the top spots too. He finally gets out of Colorado for the first time in 2016 and is a straight out steal on FanDuel ($5.5K). He runs $2.4K higher on DraftKings where I still think he can be a force with potentially lower ownership.

Value Tier Two

Dallas Keuchel (1) still has some issues and is not my most confident play tonight, but look at this group and we’re going to have to take some calculated risks. The slider is allowing him to generate swinging strikes along with still one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball. The Twins are a decent enough matchup here with only one or two real power threats.

Bartolo Colon (5t) is really a matchup play at this late, late, late stage of his career, but he keeps appearing here because he frequently has had such great matchups (as mentioned above). The Braves are the worst at hitting the baseballs. I’m guessing that our time with him may be soon be coming to an end as his price continues to rise and he’s not always going to be in these cake spots. In fact, he’s flying $1K higher on FanDuel tonight, but would seem a decent bet to get a win tonight.

Value Tier Three

Jason Hammel (5t) could go a bit higher if there were enough of a chance of him reaching the seventh, but that’s unlikely to happen and he’s not in the best spot against a well-disciplined offense. His cost on FanDuel may be a bit high for expected length of his start, but nearly $1K less on DraftKings seems about right.

Gerrit Cole (4) is not in the ideal spot and while the SwStr% decline is not a good sign, it’s still too small a sample to express much concern over. You’re getting him for just over $9K though, which projects at least some value.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Johnny Cueto (3) appears to be in a great spot tonight, but consider that he’s previously excelled with super BABIP suppression and an average HR/FB. The park in San Francisco may be protecting him more than Cincinnati will in that aspect, though I don’t think it’s enough of a big deal for one night against a poor offense. However, he’s the highest cost on the board and will likely have his pitch count watched more closely than normal after 119 in his last start.

Gio Gonzalez really has a matchup we try to stay away from with visiting pitchers in Kansas City, but there are a few reasons (mentioned above) for optimism today that he might be at least of neutral value and perhaps bumps up slightly further for below $9K on DraftKings.

Jose Berrios carries some risk, as would any young pitcher on the road against a high powered offense, and his price has risen on DraftKings already even after a debut that disappointed from a results standpoint. He should be able to rack up a few strikeouts though and costs much less on FanDuel ($1.5K).

Edinson Volquez is best utilized as a matchup play at home and this is a pretty good one. The Nats have just two bats who don’t seem to be nearly automatic outs against RHP. Volquez has shown that he still has occasional blowup tendencies and control issues in recent starts though, so a perfectly average price tag seems about right here.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.