Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, July 22nd
I can’t say I remember so many large Saturday night slates the past few years, but here we are with our second one in a row. Just two late afternoon games before a 13 game night slate. We have a couple of guys coming off the DL tonight and a major league debut for the Diamondbacks. Many teams fired their best shot last night, so we take a step back on Saturday, but some of the number two guys aren’t so bad.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -3.5 | 4.31 | 5.79 | 45.2% | 0.96 | 4.28 | 4.14 | CHC | 99 | 93 | 139 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.5 | 4.83 | 5.35 | 48.0% | 0.96 | 5.22 | 4.92 | TAM | 115 | 111 | 90 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 6.6 | 4.93 | 5.66 | 32.3% | 0.89 | 4.67 | 6.69 | NYY | 99 | 85 | 73 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -1.3 | 4.24 | 5.17 | 46.3% | 0.96 | 4.16 | 4.65 | PHI | 92 | 82 | 114 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -3.2 | 4.66 | 4.88 | 44.1% | 1.39 | 4.04 | 4.2 | COL | 86 | 78 | 150 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.7 | 3.52 | 6.17 | 45.6% | 0.96 | 3.12 | 4.07 | TEX | 81 | 94 | 56 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 4.1 | 4.97 | 5.05 | 19.4% | 1.02 | 5.76 | 4.97 | CIN | 97 | 92 | 68 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.85 | 5.49 | 42.4% | 1.02 | 4.88 | 6.73 | HOU | 137 | 133 | 124 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.8 | 3.97 | 5.83 | 41.9% | 1.02 | 4.19 | BAL | 98 | 97 | 124 | |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0 | 3.82 | 5.63 | 44.2% | 1.09 | 3.67 | TOR | 93 | 91 | 77 | |
| David Price | BOS | 7 | 3.58 | 6.54 | 42.9% | 0.91 | 4.1 | 3.57 | ANA | 97 | 82 | 93 |
| German Marquez | COL | -4.2 | 4.36 | 5.45 | 45.2% | 1.39 | 3.96 | 3.06 | PIT | 89 | 90 | 108 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.55 | 37.0% | 1.06 | 4.68 | 6.59 | CHW | 94 | 111 | 78 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 1.2 | 4.26 | 5.78 | 50.0% | 0.91 | 4.22 | 5.18 | BOS | 99 | 90 | 53 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.1 | 4.52 | 5.69 | 39.3% | 0.96 | 4.29 | 3.13 | MIL | 96 | 95 | 68 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.2 | 3.55 | 6.23 | 48.3% | 0.96 | 3.5 | 4.65 | STL | 89 | 89 | 98 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.8 | 4.47 | 5.8 | 40.0% | 1.04 | 4.88 | 4.09 | MIN | 99 | 99 | 83 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.5 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 39.4% | 0.89 | 4.65 | 4.66 | LOS | 119 | 108 | 129 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 1.8 | 4.72 | 5.63 | 50.4% | 1.04 | 4.4 | 5.12 | DET | 89 | 97 | 142 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.8 | 4.04 | 5.62 | 61.3% | 0.93 | 3.85 | 9.04 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 72 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.8 | 3.63 | 6.36 | 60.7% | 1.09 | 3.46 | 4.28 | CLE | 109 | 104 | 94 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 1.1 | 3.72 | 6.28 | 48.2% | 0.89 | 3.81 | 2.87 | SEA | 110 | 104 | 81 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -0.9 | 4.55 | 5.8 | 38.5% | 0.93 | 4.5 | 4.93 | SDG | 79 | 72 | 141 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.2 | 5.08 | 5. | 49.6% | 1.06 | 5.19 | 5.46 | KAN | 88 | 89 | 102 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.8 | 3.37 | 5.54 | 0.438 | 0.89 | 4.16 | 1.21 | ATL | 93 | 98 | 97 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 7.4 | 4.93 | 4.63 | 0.352 | 1.02 | 5.03 | MIA | 101 | 94 | 76 | |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -12.2 | 4.05 | 5.85 | 0.456 | 0.91 | 3.87 | 4.46 | NYM | 94 | 100 | 87 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.1 | 4.4 | 5.98 | 0.477 | 1.13 | 4.55 | 4.6 | ARI | 108 | 103 | 107 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -1.4 | 4.55 | 5.07 | 0.483 | 0.91 | 4.31 | 4.47 | OAK | 86 | 103 | 98 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | -5.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.13 | WAS | 103 | 104 | 125 |
Brent Suter has a league average 12.7 K-BB% with strong contact management (26 Hard%, 3.1% Barrels/BBE, 27.1% 95+ mph EV). In three July starts, he has a 16.2 K-BB% and 50 GB%. The Phillies have been more formidable since the break, but are still a favorable matchup.
Chris Archer has struck out 25 of his last 85 batters. He’s gone at least six innings in 15 of his last 16 starts and struck out eight or more in 10 of his last 14. His 88.7 mph aEV and 21.1 Hard-Soft% are a bit high, but have only resulted in 5% Barrels/BBE, which has kept his HR rate low (10.8 HR/FB). Despite the ground ball rate being six points lower this year, it looks like the hard contact has turned mostly into line drives (up five points). His 92.6 mph aEV on flies and liners is actually right in the middle of the league among qualified starters. The Rangers have a 26.1 K% on the road and 23.7 K% vs RHP.
Danny Salazar has not started a major league game since May as he returns from a shoulder issue. Unlike the other starter returning from the DL today, he dominated his most recent rehab start, striking out nine of 23 AAA batters. With six innings in the bag, workload concerns are low. Contact has been an issue (88.9 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE) again this year. Missing bats has never been one. The Toronto offense has been a bit below average this year, while a positive run environment makes it a neutral spot.
David Price has allowed two ERs over 20 July innings, striking out 22 of 82 batters (22.0 K-BB%) with a 2.0 Hard-Soft%. The Red Sox will certainly take more of that please. The Angels have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP (8.6 HR/FB).
JC Ramirez has a perfectly average 12.0 K-BB% for the Angels in a park that can make up for some of his deficiencies (22.6 Hard-Soft%). He can be daily fantasy useful in some situations and this may be one of them. The Red Sox don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP and have been the coldest offense in the majors since the break (25.8 Hard%, 6.8 HR/FB last seven days).
Marcus Stroman is one of two qualified starters with a 60% ground ball rate (61.1%) to go along with a league average strikeout rate. While that keeps him from allowing a lot of barrels (6.3% of BBEs), the largest flaw in his profile is that he does not limit hard contact particularly well (88.2 mph aEV, 37.7% 95+ mph EV), which has led to a BABIP above .300 both this year and for his career. That could be an issue in a difficult spot in Cleveland against a well-disciplined offense. He’s walked three in each of his last two starts. It could mean he may be able to erase a few mistakes with double plays too.
Masahiro Tanaka had a three game stretch without a HR, but has allowed three in his two starts and it’s really been a tremendous problem for him all year with 24 already (one off his career high). However, he gets a significant park upgrade tonight against an offense with average power and has an elite 25.0 K-BB% over his last seven starts. For reference, there are just four qualified starters, which you can probably name off the top of your head, better than that for the season.
Rich Hill has struck out 29 of his last 70 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 19 innings. He would appear to be back and has managed contact well all season. His 82.9 mph aEV and 25.3% 95+ mph EV are best on the board. The Braves are a somewhat average offense against LHP and did the nearly impossible in blowing up Alex Wood last night. They have an odd 15.7 HR/FB against southpaws despite just a 28 Hard%. A significantly negative run environment makes this a favorable spot.
Sean Manaea has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts. His 13.1 SwStr% is third on the board today, just a fraction behind Archer. The Mets have some power and have been an average offense against LHP, but with a 15.2 K-BB%. The chief concern would be that despite an eight strikeout performance last time out, snapping back from a three game total of 12, his SwStr% has been in single digits and below 9% for three straight starts now. They are his three lowest SwStr rates of the season.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jeremy Hellickson (.248 – 75.5% – 14.2) could not miss a bit through the end of May. Not that an 18.0 K% since the start of June is anything to write home about, but it at least meets his career rate with a league average 9.8 SwStr%. He could see a further boost against a Milwaukee offense that strikes out a quarter of the time, but they also homer on nearly one-fifth of fly balls against RHP. That could be a problem for a pitcher with both a ground ball rate and hard hit rate in the mid-30s.
Jason Vargas (.283 – 83.1% – 9.0) has walked four in two of his last three. He has just a 15.4 K% and 7.7 K-BB% since the start of May.
Ariel Miranda (.220 – 77.4% – 13.4) has allowed 12 HRs over his last seven starts and multiple bombs in five of his last six.
Andrew Cashner (.280 – 74.9 – 8.1) has been a strong contact manager (3.5% Barrels/BBE), but with just a 1.3 K-BB%.
Mike Pelfrey (.273 – 71.1% – 13.9) has an 11.6% unearned run rate with a 4.6 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Anthony Banda is the top prospect for the Diamondbacks, but it’s a weak system as he’s the only one to have a future value grade above 45 via Fangraphs. He’s got a quality curveball with a fastball in the low to mid-90s with a merely average K-BB% through 174 AAA innings combining this and last season after dominating lower levels. He has allowed 11 HRs in a tough league in just over 100 innings this year, but with a 4.74 xFIP. Hosting the Nationals is a very tough spot for the 23 year-old lefty to make his debut.
Robert Stephenson has a 19.9 K-BB% at AAA this season with his lowest walk rate (8.1%) since A ball this year. He’s thrown 24.2 relief innings at the major league level this season with a less impressive 9.1 K-BB%. Missing bats has never been a problem, but control issues have followed him throughout his professional career. It’s a major concern in a band box considering his 35.2 GB% and 38.7 Hard% through 61.2 major league innings in his career so far. His 90.1 mph aEV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE and 41% 95+ mph EV are worst on the night slate.
Collin McHugh makes his first start of the season. He made most of his rehab starts (four of five) at AA over the last month, where he worked his way through six innings an 24 batters last time out, so there’s little concern about workload limitations. The concern would be just a 16.2 K%. The Orioles have a 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP, but have been more potent since the break. RHBs have a career .320 wOBA against him with more hard contact than LHBs.
Chad Kuhl is at Coors tonight.
Chris O’Grady
Chris Tillman has the worst matchup on the board and yes, I know there’s a game at Coors.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.2% | Road | 18.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.2% | 10.0% | Road | 14.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.2% | Home | 21.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 6.7% | Road | 17.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.4% | Road | 20.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 15.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.3% | Home | 30.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 12.3% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.9% | Road | 17.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.2% | 9.3% | Home | 18.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 17.4% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.9% | Road | 20.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 10.0% | Home | 28.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | ||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.6% | 5.8% | Road | 21.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 3.6% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.4% | Home | 18.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 3.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 6.6% | Home | 18.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.2% | Home | 18.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.2% | Home | 19.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.6% | Home | 24.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.9% | Road | 16.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.3% | Road | 19.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 10.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.2% | 8.9% | Home | 15.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.6% | Road | 17.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.4% | Road | 20.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 11.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.7% | Road | 19.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 2.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.4% | Home | 20.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 2.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.2% | 8.0% | Road | 11.2% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.2% | Home | 26.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 19.9% | 12.0% | Home | 22.1% | 11.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.3% | 7.3% | Road | 22.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.3% | Road | 17.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 20.8% | 10.0% | Home | 22.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 20.7% | 10.1% | RH | 22.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.6% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.5% | RH | 24.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.0% | 9.1% | LH | 23.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.0% | 8.4% | LH | 21.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 11.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.9% | 7.6% | RH | 22.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 8.1% | RH | 23.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | LH | 20.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.2% |
| Astros | Road | 17.6% | 8.9% | RH | 17.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.2% | 7.2% | RH | 22.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.8% | 9.3% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.6% | 7.8% | LH | 20.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 18.9% | 8.8% | RH | 18.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 13.5% | 6.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 6.1% | LH | 21.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 5.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.0% | RH | 19.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.7% | 8.7% | RH | 25.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 8.5% | LH | 20.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.6% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 10.7% | RH | 22.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 12.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.2% | 9.0% | RH | 21.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 14.8% | 9.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.7% | RH | 19.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.6% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.7% | RH | 19.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 5.2% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 7.2% | LH | 25.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.9% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.7% | RH | 20.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 7.5% | LH | 19.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 6.4% | RH | 20.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.3% | 8.6% | LH | 22.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.7% | 9.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 11.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.0% | 8.8% | RH | 25.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 8.8% | LH | 21.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 2017 | 29.9% | 13.3% | 8.0% | Road | 32.4% | 19.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 21.4% | -7.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 2017 | 29.8% | 8.1% | 11.1% | Road | 33.8% | 10.9% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 23.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 27.6% | 13.4% | 5.8% | Home | 31.4% | 13.2% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 2017 | 26.0% | 3.4% | 8.3% | Road | 27.9% | 13.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.4% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 2017 | 31.9% | 9.9% | 15.6% | Road | 31.5% | 6.5% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 13.0% | 18.7% | 2017 | 37.7% | 10.8% | 21.2% | Home | 36.1% | 10.7% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 14.3% | 9.1% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 25.8% | 5.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 25.8% | 5.6% | 12.9% | Road | 11.8% | 0.0% | -11.7% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 5.6% | 12.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2017 | 35.0% | 15.9% | 16.5% | Home | 31.9% | 11.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 2017 | Road | 34.8% | 12.5% | 17.1% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.8% | 16.9% | 2017 | 29.6% | 22.4% | 14.1% | Home | 33.3% | 17.0% | 19.4% | L14 Days | |||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 2017 | 33.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | Road | 33.0% | 11.7% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 35.2% | 10.8% | 20.8% | 2017 | 36.8% | 9.9% | 22.2% | Home | 32.0% | 13.0% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 22.2% | 22.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 2017 | 29.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | Home | 31.1% | 7.2% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 54.6% | 33.3% | 45.5% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.4% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 2017 | 38.4% | 17.3% | 22.6% | Home | 32.5% | 18.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 11.1% | 16.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.9% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.6% | 14.2% | 12.1% | Home | 24.5% | 13.7% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 2017 | 26.8% | 15.6% | 4.3% | Home | 26.9% | 12.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 50.0% | 19.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 2017 | 38.7% | 15.6% | 24.4% | Road | 28.9% | 12.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 7.7% | 22.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 2017 | 31.0% | 14.7% | 9.4% | Road | 32.3% | 9.8% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 27.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 2017 | 37.8% | 20.3% | 23.9% | Home | 34.4% | 19.4% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 40.0% | 24.3% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.5% | 21.0% | 16.5% | 2017 | 32.6% | 19.6% | 15.0% | Road | 33.7% | 25.0% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 20.0% | 30.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.7% | 17.3% | 8.3% | Road | 30.5% | 21.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 2017 | 31.6% | 22.6% | 13.4% | Road | 30.7% | 14.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 27.3% | 11.4% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 2017 | 36.2% | 11.0% | 20.7% | Home | 32.1% | 10.5% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 13.3% | 6.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 2017 | 29.4% | 13.9% | 5.9% | Road | 29.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 2017 | 27.2% | 9.7% | 1.9% | Home | 31.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 27.3% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 38.7% | 19.8% | 22.7% | 2017 | 39.7% | 21.2% | 25.6% | Home | 36.0% | 12.5% | 16.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.9% | 15.6% | 2017 | 33.0% | 9.0% | 16.3% | Road | 34.1% | 14.3% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.4% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 2017 | 28.9% | 12.5% | 14.1% | Road | 24.3% | 11.8% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 33.2% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2017 | 33.2% | 18.3% | 14.2% | Home | 35.7% | 21.2% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 22.2% | 10.8% |
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 31.5% | 16.2% | 13.9% | RH | 30.9% | 14.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 39.4% | 20.0% | 27.2% |
| Rays | Home | 37.9% | 16.6% | 19.8% | RH | 36.0% | 18.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 18.0% | 6.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.4% | 11.8% | 12.8% | LH | 29.2% | 11.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 30.9% | 6.6% | 10.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.6% | 14.4% | 10.8% | LH | 30.0% | 14.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 37.9% | 8.6% | 19.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.5% | 16.5% | 12.4% | RH | 29.7% | 13.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 37.1% | 20.7% | 20.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.4% | 16.0% | 9.8% | RH | 33.7% | 17.1% | 14.3% | L7Days | 29.2% | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| Reds | Home | 28.0% | 14.8% | 6.4% | LH | 28.1% | 15.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.5% | 1.7% |
| Astros | Road | 33.9% | 16.4% | 15.4% | RH | 33.8% | 16.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 35.1% | 13.3% | 20.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.7% | 16.3% | 10.2% | RH | 31.3% | 15.6% | 10.7% | L7Days | 37.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.8% | 14.2% | 13.2% | RH | 31.0% | 14.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Home | 28.6% | 13.2% | 9.9% | LH | 30.9% | 8.6% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 16.0% | 10.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.9% | 12.1% | 10.4% | RH | 30.2% | 10.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.1% | 14.0% | 14.7% | LH | 29.5% | 14.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 35.1% | 13.2% | 16.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.2% | 11.7% | 13.5% | RH | 34.9% | 10.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.1% | 18.2% | 11.3% | RH | 33.6% | 19.7% | 14.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.0% | 12.9% | 14.5% | LH | 34.0% | 9.9% | 17.2% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.5% | 10.3% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 11.3% | 16.8% | RH | 33.0% | 13.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.4% | 17.4% | 21.6% | RH | 35.5% | 15.1% | 20.3% | L7Days | 36.5% | 13.1% | 25.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.8% | 12.0% | 18.3% | RH | 41.1% | 11.8% | 25.6% | L7Days | 35.6% | 13.8% | 20.7% |
| Giants | Home | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | RH | 28.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Indians | Home | 31.0% | 12.1% | 13.4% | RH | 33.6% | 11.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 29.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% | RH | 30.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 14.9% | 1.1% |
| Padres | Road | 30.1% | 14.6% | 8.7% | LH | 30.7% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 19.2% | 16.3% |
| Royals | Home | 31.0% | 9.1% | 11.4% | RH | 31.9% | 11.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Road | 31.4% | 12.6% | 13.2% | LH | 28.0% | 15.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 31.6% | 19.0% | 10.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.1% | 14.2% | 8.7% | RH | 31.3% | 14.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 28.8% | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Mets | Home | 33.4% | 11.1% | 14.5% | LH | 35.1% | 13.6% | 13.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 14.5% | 10.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.4% | 16.2% | 24.5% | RH | 35.9% | 15.3% | 18.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 19.6% | 13.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.4% | 12.2% | 16.3% | RH | 33.6% | 15.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 11.5% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.5% | 15.9% | 12.9% | LH | 30.8% | 15.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 34.8% | 23.0% | 14.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 20.1% | 7.7% | 2.61 | 24.0% | 7.3% | 3.29 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.6% | 5.9% | 1.97 | 13.2% | 7.0% | 1.89 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.93 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 1.74 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.15 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 2.21 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.3% | 10.7% | 1.80 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 28.7% | 13.2% | 2.17 | 24.8% | 13.1% | 1.89 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.92 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.92 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.03 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.42 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | ||||||
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 30.9% | 15.8% | 1.96 | |||
| David Price | BOS | 22.4% | 11.6% | 1.93 | 25.4% | 12.7% | 2.00 |
| German Marquez | COL | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.40 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.48 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.3% | 10.0% | 1.83 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.8% | 9.9% | 1.90 | 15.7% | 10.9% | 1.44 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 13.1% | 8.3% | 1.58 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.28 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.18 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.94 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 16.6% | 8.6% | 1.93 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.54 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.8% | 8.7% | 1.93 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 2.06 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.1% | 9.1% | 1.55 | 11.8% | 7.0% | 1.69 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 18.4% | 9.4% | 1.96 | 16.7% | 8.9% | 1.88 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.01 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 2.10 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.6% | 14.7% | 1.61 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 1.56 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 17.8% | 8.6% | 2.07 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.82 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 14.8% | 6.4% | 2.31 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.33 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.6% | 11.1% | 2.58 | 36.7% | 14.2% | 2.58 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 22.3% | 12.0% | 1.86 | |||
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 24.3% | 13.1% | 1.85 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 18.2% | 9.6% | 1.90 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 1.53 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 20.8% | 8.8% | 2.36 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI |
Masahiro Tanaka keeps increasing his strikeout rate, but the swinging strike rate keeps rising to stay ahead of it as well.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.08 | 4.31 | -0.77 | 4.07 | -1.01 | 4.03 | -1.05 | 5.52 | 0.44 | 3.52 | 3.58 | 0.06 | 3.31 | -0.21 | 3.5 | -0.02 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.58 | 5.64 | 2.06 | 5.26 | 1.68 | 4.56 | 0.98 | 5.66 | 2.08 | 3.86 | 5.18 | 1.32 | 4.72 | 0.86 | 4.58 | 0.72 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.35 | 5.01 | 0.66 | 5.36 | 1.01 | 5.31 | 0.96 | 5.06 | 0.71 | 5.4 | 5.43 | 0.03 | 5.71 | 0.31 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 3.09 | 4.18 | 1.09 | 4.09 | 1 | 2.89 | -0.2 | 6.51 | 3.42 | 1.8 | 3.49 | 1.69 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 1.89 | 0.09 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.85 | 4.79 | -0.06 | 4.63 | -0.22 | 4.14 | -0.71 | 4.18 | -0.67 | 3.38 | 4.4 | 1.02 | 3.9 | 0.52 | 3.74 | 0.36 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.91 | 3.56 | -0.35 | 3.47 | -0.44 | 3.12 | -0.79 | 2.58 | -1.33 | 4.4 | 4.09 | -0.31 | 3.93 | -0.47 | 3.89 | -0.51 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 5.23 | 4.96 | -0.27 | 5.46 | 0.23 | 3.62 | -1.61 | 7.03 | 1.80 | 5.23 | 4.97 | -0.26 | 5.46 | 0.23 | 3.62 | -1.61 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.2 | 5.63 | -1.57 | 5.64 | -1.56 | 6.01 | -1.19 | 8.37 | 1.17 | 4.11 | 5.19 | 1.08 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 4.7 | 0.59 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | ||||||||||||||||
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 5.4 | 3.74 | -1.66 | 3.56 | -1.84 | 4.57 | -0.83 | 3.72 | -1.68 | |||||||
| David Price | BOS | 3.39 | 4.21 | 0.82 | 4.36 | 0.97 | 3.81 | 0.42 | 4.08 | 0.69 | 1.91 | 3.44 | 1.53 | 3.36 | 1.45 | 1.53 | -0.38 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.34 | 4.39 | 0.05 | 4.45 | 0.11 | 3.91 | -0.43 | 5.69 | 1.35 | 5.4 | 4.15 | -1.25 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 3.95 | -1.45 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.06 | 4.68 | 1.62 | 4.85 | 1.79 | 4.04 | 0.98 | 3.95 | 0.89 | 6.23 | 5.47 | -0.76 | 5.64 | -0.59 | 7.29 | 1.06 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.54 | 4.35 | -0.19 | 4.25 | -0.29 | 4.7 | 0.16 | 4.15 | -0.39 | 4.4 | 4.47 | 0.07 | 4.45 | 0.05 | 5.23 | 0.83 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.44 | 5.35 | 0.91 | 5.44 | 1 | 5.53 | 1.09 | 5.54 | 1.10 | 3.86 | 3.69 | -0.17 | 3.71 | -0.15 | 4.51 | 0.65 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.07 | 3.91 | -0.16 | 3.62 | -0.45 | 3.83 | -0.24 | 3.25 | -0.82 | 4.91 | 3.92 | -0.99 | 3.44 | -1.47 | 4.42 | -0.49 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.58 | 4.97 | -0.61 | 5.18 | -0.4 | 5.53 | -0.05 | 5.56 | -0.02 | 6.98 | 4.28 | -2.7 | 4.65 | -2.33 | 4.95 | -2.03 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.69 | 5.14 | 0.45 | 5.2 | 0.51 | 5.37 | 0.68 | 5.34 | 0.65 | 4.43 | 4.9 | 0.47 | 4.62 | 0.19 | 4.62 | 0.19 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.29 | 5.27 | -1.02 | 4.95 | -1.34 | 5.73 | -0.56 | 6.83 | 0.54 | 5.67 | 5.38 | -0.29 | 4.8 | -0.87 | 6.43 | 0.76 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.94 | 4.03 | -0.91 | 3.95 | -0.99 | 4.41 | -0.53 | 5.27 | 0.33 | 4.82 | 4.34 | -0.48 | 4.01 | -0.81 | 3.94 | -0.88 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.1 | 3.73 | 0.63 | 3.52 | 0.42 | 3.82 | 0.72 | 3.40 | 0.30 | 2.97 | 3.86 | 0.89 | 3.48 | 0.51 | 3.83 | 0.86 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.33 | 3.73 | -1.6 | 3.72 | -1.61 | 4.84 | -0.49 | 3.87 | -1.46 | 3 | 2.99 | -0.01 | 2.96 | -0.04 | 2.96 | -0.04 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.81 | 4.96 | -0.85 | 5.22 | -0.59 | 4.74 | -1.07 | 7.93 | 2.12 | 5.75 | 5.36 | -0.39 | 5.72 | -0.03 | 5.74 | -0.01 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.64 | 5.31 | 0.67 | 5.29 | 0.65 | 5.32 | 0.68 | 4.98 | 0.34 | 8 | 5.78 | -2.22 | 5.94 | -2.06 | 8.19 | 0.19 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.55 | 3.92 | 0.37 | 4.28 | 0.73 | 3.71 | 0.16 | 4.65 | 1.10 | 1.74 | 2.5 | 0.76 | 2.85 | 1.11 | 1.91 | 0.17 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 8.03 | 4.65 | -3.38 | 5.27 | -2.76 | 6.58 | -1.45 | 5.72 | -2.31 | |||||||
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.68 | 4.08 | 0.4 | 3.99 | 0.31 | 3.45 | -0.23 | 3.34 | -0.34 | 3 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 4.04 | 1.04 | 2.93 | -0.07 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.98 | 4.66 | -0.32 | 4.49 | -0.49 | 4.34 | -0.64 | 5.16 | 0.18 | 5.4 | 5.02 | -0.38 | 4.82 | -0.58 | 4.34 | -1.06 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 4.98 | 4.55 | -0.43 | 4.29 | -0.69 | 4.81 | -0.17 | 6.34 | 1.36 | 3.6 | 4.27 | 0.67 | 4.06 | 0.46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI |
Brent Suter has just a 3.4 HR/FB.
Danny Salazar has a .366 BABIP and his line drive rate is enormous. He has a 22.4 HR/FB to go along with it. Hopefully, the shoulder issue that we hope is resolved was behind some of his contact struggles.
Masahiro Tanaka has a career high .318 BABIP and 22.6 HR/FB with a career low 71.4 LOB%. His 49.7 GB% is also a career high while his hard and soft contact rates are right on his career numbers.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.295 | 0.339 | 0.044 | 47.4% | 0.246 | 11.1% | 90.1% | 85.8 | 5.20% | 33.80% | 325 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.280 | -0.009 | 50.3% | 0.198 | 3.5% | 93.4% | 86.4 | 3.50% | 32.20% | 289 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.220 | -0.059 | 32.9% | 0.157 | 13.4% | 85.2% | 86.3 | 7.70% | 31.60% | 326 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.299 | 0.326 | 0.027 | 48.4% | 0.211 | 3.4% | 85.8% | 85.1 | 3.10% | 27.10% | 96 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.306 | 0.322 | 0.016 | 43.9% | 0.223 | 6.6% | 85.0% | 87.1 | 5.10% | 36.20% | 276 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.285 | 0.330 | 0.045 | 41.5% | 0.227 | 10.8% | 81.9% | 88.7 | 5.00% | 38.50% | 340 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 0.293 | 0.300 | 0.007 | 19.4% | 0.226 | 11.1% | 89.1% | 87.4 | 9.70% | 29.00% | 31 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.314 | 0.370 | 0.056 | 40.7% | 0.246 | 14.5% | 90.9% | 89.2 | 6.00% | 38.50% | 200 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | ||||||||||
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.305 | 0.366 | 0.061 | 37.1% | 0.279 | 10.2% | 78.4% | 88.9 | 9.90% | 30.30% | 142 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.306 | 0.279 | -0.027 | 40.8% | 0.201 | 12.9% | 87.3% | 85.6 | 7.30% | 28.50% | 179 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.327 | 0.025 | 42.4% | 0.212 | 9.9% | 89.9% | 89 | 6.70% | 36.40% | 253 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.300 | 0.283 | -0.017 | 37.1% | 0.188 | 9.0% | 83.8% | 86.6 | 4.80% | 29.90% | 334 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.286 | 0.299 | 0.013 | 49.5% | 0.192 | 6.7% | 86.3% | 87.6 | 6.80% | 34.80% | 336 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.296 | 0.248 | -0.048 | 35.4% | 0.217 | 11.5% | 86.1% | 86.7 | 6.70% | 32.30% | 356 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.285 | 0.310 | 0.025 | 49.8% | 0.199 | 7.3% | 84.2% | 84.9 | 4.90% | 27.10% | 325 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.307 | 0.315 | 0.008 | 32.7% | 0.245 | 12.1% | 90.6% | 88.3 | 8.00% | 34.20% | 336 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.291 | 0.268 | -0.023 | 39.6% | 0.205 | 7.4% | 88.1% | 86 | 6.60% | 30.20% | 348 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.296 | 0.336 | 0.04 | 51.2% | 0.224 | 2.5% | 90.1% | 88.4 | 8.30% | 37.70% | 302 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.342 | 0.035 | 65.7% | 0.151 | 7.8% | 90.4% | 87.1 | 5.20% | 36.30% | 267 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.312 | 0.005 | 61.1% | 0.173 | 4.0% | 89.1% | 88.2 | 6.30% | 37.70% | 350 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.290 | 0.318 | 0.028 | 49.7% | 0.178 | 12.3% | 84.5% | 88.3 | 9.40% | 36.20% | 329 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.338 | 0.021 | 37.5% | 0.209 | 6.2% | 88.8% | 89.1 | 9.60% | 42.10% | 356 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.289 | 0.273 | -0.016 | 49.4% | 0.173 | 7.6% | 90.0% | 87.4 | 6.70% | 35.70% | 238 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.282 | 0.284 | 0.002 | 39.5% | 0.146 | 13.9% | 80.0% | 82.9 | 6.20% | 25.30% | 162 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.294 | 0.366 | 0.072 | 36.4% | 0.208 | 9.1% | 86.1% | 90.1 | 12.80% | 41.00% | 78 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.289 | -0.003 | 47.9% | 0.187 | 3.4% | 85.0% | 88.8 | 4.40% | 38.90% | 270 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.294 | 0.310 | 0.016 | 46.8% | 0.218 | 5.8% | 85.0% | 86.3 | 5.30% | 33.00% | 339 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.321 | 0.329 | 0.008 | 48.3% | 0.223 | 7.0% | 86.3% | 86.9 | 8.10% | 35.40% | 246 |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 0.293 |
h2=. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Archer (1) has been going at least six innings with at least eight strikeouts in most starts since April. There’s no particular reason to suggest the Rangers would be cause for much less.
Value Tier Two
Rich Hill (2) is once against dominant. The Braves aren’t bad and the cost is exorbitant. He did get through seven innings in three straight starts before just five in his last start, but has steadily had a pitch count in the 90s in every start since the beginning of June.
Masahiro Tanaka (3) has not solved his HR issues, but they have improved and what he has done is increase his upside potential. The peripherals have been elite for over a month now and a park upgrade could help him even further. A 25 K-BB% over seven starts for right around $9K.
Value Tier Three
Sean Manaea has missed fewer bats over his last three starts, but has been an elite bat misser over the course of the season. He’s in a favorable spot in great park at a nearly absurd cost on DraftKings tonight ($6.6K).
David Price (4) has been pitching like vintage David Price in July and is in a strong run prevention spot tonight. The major issue is a nearly $3K price differential between sites. He drops a tier for $12.3K on DraftKings.
Marcus Stroman has the talent to get the job done in Cleveland, but for more than $8K in a difficult spot, he’ll have to keep the free passes down and those hard ground balls are going to need to find gloves. He may not have the upside to make up for too many mistakes in this spot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
JC Ramirez is a low cost arm who might be able to fill a secondary spot at a low price in a strong run prevention spot.
Danny Salazar has control and contact issues, but also a tremendous amount of upside for less than $8K. Facing 23 batters in his last rehab starts hopefully means he won’t be cut short tonight.
Brent Suter has been at least an average arm this year and even a bit better in a starting role this month. He’s not really a prospect, but he’s facing the Phillies, which can make most pitchers into a prospect that day.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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