Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 17th
The mid-afternoon slate is the largest, so that’s the one being covered today with all pitchers listed for every game. It’s eight games on DraftKings and nine on FanDuel. There’s also another double-header today. I’ve listed the second game starters because that’s what that seems to be standard protocol, but with so many day games, maybe that was a mistake?
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 40.0% | 1.04 | 4.82 | 5.11 | CLE | 91 | 92 | 112 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.8 | 4.37 | 5.85 | 45.3% | 1.02 | 4.25 | 5.3 | BAL | 89 | 91 | 93 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -1.5 | 4.94 | 4.58 | 40.9% | 0.91 | 4.58 | 4.94 | KAN | 88 | 84 | 157 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 10.3 | 5.01 | 5. | 27.1% | 1.02 | 4.08 | 4.95 | LOS | 90 | 102 | 135 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.47 | 5.26 | 37.9% | 1.02 | 4.59 | 3.1 | SDG | 75 | 84 | 117 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.5 | 3.48 | 6.2 | 45.2% | 0.98 | 3.82 | 2.59 | DET | 122 | 101 | 105 |
| David Paulino | HOU | -1.9 | 4.53 | 4.05 | 35.9% | 0.94 | 4.83 | 4.88 | BOS | 98 | 95 | 120 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 3.96 | 4.5 | 30.6% | 1.02 | 6.02 | 5.51 | MIL | 97 | 97 | 88 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 2 | 4.17 | 5.2 | 48.9% | 1.02 | 4.82 | 3.36 | CIN | 105 | 96 | 73 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -6.8 | 4.12 | 5.91 | 51.2% | 0.97 | 3.79 | 4.17 | CHC | 87 | 88 | 123 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.6 | 3.98 | 5.91 | 57.5% | 1 | 3.44 | 3.31 | MIA | 97 | 108 | 112 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.3 | 3.51 | 6.49 | 52.9% | 0.97 | 3.85 | 5.18 | PIT | 94 | 93 | 116 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 7.8 | 5.91 | 5.03 | 32.1% | 0.91 | 5.3 | 5.54 | ANA | 102 | 90 | 68 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.6 | 4.61 | 5.55 | 48.8% | 1 | 5.3 | 5.69 | ATL | 88 | 102 | 80 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.4 | 4.11 | 5.91 | 40.2% | 0.96 | 4.26 | 5.15 | ARI | 74 | 107 | 133 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -14.2 | 4.74 | 5.46 | 49.3% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.29 | NYY | 108 | 126 | 163 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.1 | 4.87 | 5.78 | 57.8% | 1.39 | 3.91 | 3.81 | SFO | 85 | 78 | 128 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.3 | 3.6 | 6.37 | 60.7% | 1.03 | 3.47 | 3.11 | CHW | 90 | 86 | 133 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.5 | 4.85 | 5.8 | 52.7% | 1.11 | 4.62 | 5.25 | SEA | 95 | 92 | 96 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.8 | 3.79 | 6.28 | 47.7% | 0.93 | 4 | 4.17 | OAK | 116 | 101 | 119 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.6 | 4.94 | 5.12 | 39.5% | 1.39 | 5.64 | 6.04 | COL | 83 | 82 | 94 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.08 | 6.27 | 48.7% | 0.98 | 4.21 | 4.66 | TAM | 102 | 115 | 116 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -4.5 | 4.54 | 4.58 | 39.3% | 1.04 | 4.18 | 4.25 | MIN | 105 | 105 | 134 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -0.3 | 5.02 | 5.1 | 49.6% | 1.03 | 5.3 | 6.24 | TOR | 95 | 93 | 95 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.7 | 3.78 | 6.45 | 0.431 | 0.94 | 3.95 | 4.71 | HOU | 113 | 121 | 119 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.5 | 4.63 | 6. | 0.42 | 0.91 | 4.97 | 4.38 | WAS | 104 | 112 | 120 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0 | 2.95 | 6.3 | 0.421 | 0.91 | 3.22 | 2.97 | NYM | 89 | 106 | 110 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -2.7 | 4.24 | 5.7 | 0.495 | 1.02 | 3.98 | 5.65 | STL | 90 | 78 | 131 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7.9 | 5.17 | 5.27 | 0.447 | 1.11 | 4.91 | 4.21 | TEX | 99 | 94 | 93 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -7.4 | 4.07 | 5.55 | 0.541 | 0.96 | 3.58 | 4.2 | PHI | 95 | 83 | 63 |
Chris Archer is the only pitcher on the entire slate with a 30% strikeout rate. He’s now at that number exactly with a 35.5 K% over the last month. His exit velocity remains elevated (89.1 mph) with a 39.5 Hard% that’s the highest of his career, but he’s somehow dropped his HR rate below 10% and has allowed barrels on just 6% of batted balls. While Detroit has been just average against RHP due to an elevated strikeout rate (22.8%), they’ve destroyed baseballs at home (50.4 Hard%) and to a lesser extent against RHP too (43.3 Hard%).
Stephen Strasburg has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five and at least seven with a 12 SwStr% or better in all of them. Five innings in his last start was the first time he’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning and only second time he’s gone fewer than six this year. He struck out a season low two Mets the last time he faced them and they do have a 19.2 K% (9.7 K-BB%) against RHP this year, but they also have just a 10.3 HR/FB at home in a very negative run environment.
Zack Godley has a 13.5 K-BB% with an elite 13.4 SwStr%. With a 61.6 GB%, he’s putting the ball on the ground before getting to strike three too often for our daily fantasy good. His 83.2 mph aEV is the lowest number on the board for the entire day and he also has the top matchup against the Phillies (23.5 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jaime Garcia (.259 – 75.4% – 11.7) has four unearned runs (12.9% of his total). His 56.7 GB% is basically his career rate and his 2.2 Hard-Soft% is fantastic. We LOVE weak ground balls if there are enough strikeouts. There aren’t, but…his 10.5 SwStr% is right at his career mark, in which he’s struck out 19% of batters. The K/SwStr is still a little low and that may be because he prefers to generate those weak ground balls earlier in the count and reserve pitches, but a 1.86 career K/SwStr is still within an acceptable range. His mark this year drops below that. It hasn’t been a consistent ride though. He’s been above a 13 SwStr% in five of his last nine starts, but below 8% three times. The Marlins have an absurd 20.7 HR/FB vs LHP and he has been HR prone in the past despite a 4.3% Barrels/BBE mark this year.
Michael Fulmer (.295 – 70.8% – 5.3) was hammered in his last start nearly 10 days ago and then was moved back a few days due to shoulder concern. His strikeouts are down, though the Rays may give that a boost (25.5 K% vs RHP). He’s stifling of hard contact (24.2% 95+ mph EV, 27 Hard%) is among the best today, but the Rays could challenge that aspect (18.8 HR/FB).
Chase Anderson (.293 – 77..9% – 6.3) has been one of the top contact generators on the slate. His 84 mph aEV and 4.2% Barrels/BBE are second best on the board, though his hard contact rate (32.4%) is right around league average and his career rate. I’m actually curious where the disconnect is between that and his more favorable Statcast numbers. Regardless, that HR rate is probably still unsustainable in that park. He is in a nice spot against the Padres (25.6 K% vs RHP) and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and thrown 100+ pitches in four straight after previously not having done so all season and still averaging just barely five innings over the last two calendar years. My main concern is the cost above $9K tonight.
Jesse Hahn (.311 – 67.4% – 1.9) has managed contact well, but has just a 10.3 K-BB%, a bit below average, and the worst matchup on the slate.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Masahiro Tanaka has been feast or famine. He’s allowed at least three HRs in three of his last six starts, but has also pitched into the seventh inning with eight or more strikeouts twice in his last four. One of them, against this Oakland team in Yankee Stadium. His 89.1 mph aEV and 40.1% 95+ mph EV are among the highest marks on the board, but so is his 12.9 SwStr%. The A’s have a 24.5 K% vs RHP, but also a 16.8 HR/FB at home in a power suppressing park, so who knows?
Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 12 HRs in 57 innings. That’s likely as unsustainable as the low HR rates because neither his hard contact nor Statcast numbers are that bad. He’s otherwise generating a fine 13.8 K-BB% and could be worth a price tag below $7K except that his pitch counts are all over the place. He’s thrown 100 twice, but fewer than 80 in four of his last five outings (one was in relief). The Reds have power (18.2 HR/FB vs LHP) and took him deep in a tougher park (though still power friendly) three times last time out.
Wade Miley has just a 1.8 K-BB% over his last seven starts, but with a 57.9 GB%.
Jerad Eickhoff can’t excel in a power friendly park as a fly ball pitcher with a walk rate above 8% if he’s not exceeding a league average strikeout rate.
Dinelson Lamet has great strikeout potential and the walks have only come up to bite him once in four starts (five of his nine), but he’s allowed 16 runs over his last eight innings, including three HRs to the Royals of all teams as 18.4% of batted balls qualify as barrels now.
Adam Wainwright is running the same strikeout and contact rates as he has the last few years. He’s not throwing as many strikes as he has in the past. Considering how RH the Orioles have become, it might be necessary to point out that against RHBs, he has allowed a .330 wOBA, but with just one HR, a 12.7 K-BB%, 50.9 GB% and 6.0 Hard-Soft%. It’s not entirely out of the question that he’s somewhat more competent than the numbers believe here.
Jeff Locke has a 50 GB% (exactly his career rate) and 30 Hard% (a bit above his career rate), but with a 19.1 K%. However, his 8.9 SwStr% is right around his career rate. He’s run a low K/SwStr in the past, but if he can keep this up and keep his walks down, he could become slightly interesting at some point.
Yovani Gallardo and Martin Perez are only available on the FanDuel slate, but should not be of interest to anyone.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 18.9% | 11.4% | Home | 21.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 11.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.5% | Road | 18.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 11.4% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 24.9% | 15.7% | Home | 23.0% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 18.0% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 16.3% | 3.8% | Home | 25.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.8% | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.8% | 8.1% | Road | 24.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 36.5% | 5.8% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.6% | Home | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.6% | Road | 27.5% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 14.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.0% | Road | 18.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.4% | 4.7% | Home | 17.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 2.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.7% | Home | 20.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 3.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.9% | Road | 21.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 13.4% | Road | 22.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.8% | Road | 11.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.2% | Home | 21.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 11.9% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.6% | Home | 14.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.3% | 9.2% | Home | 17.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.2% | Home | 18.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.5% | 8.5% | Home | 14.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.7% | 4.9% | Road | 18.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 15.9% | 8.4% | Road | 14.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 10.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.7% | 6.0% | Home | 18.6% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 2.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.0% | 12.6% | Road | 25.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.8% | 7.7% | Road | 9.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.1% | Road | 21.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.8% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 17.7% | 8.0% | Home | 17.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 6.3% | Road | 29.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 32.9% | 6.6% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.3% | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.3% | 10.5% | Road | 16.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.4% | Road | 19.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | LH | 17.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 7.6% | RH | 22.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Road | 20.6% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.3% | 5.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.3% | 10.7% | RH | 23.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.2% |
| Padres | Road | 26.6% | 7.3% | RH | 25.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.4% | RH | 22.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 5.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.0% | 8.8% | RH | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.7% | 8.9% | RH | 24.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.0% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 8.5% | LH | 20.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 3.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.9% | 10.4% | RH | 22.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.6% | 5.7% | LH | 20.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 6.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 9.3% | RH | 18.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Home | 17.8% | 7.9% | RH | 19.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 8.0% | LH | 18.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.8% | 8.0% | RH | 22.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.0% | 9.0% | RH | 21.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | LH | 19.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 5.9% | RH | 22.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 7.7% | LH | 19.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 3.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.5% | 8.8% | RH | 24.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.3% | 7.6% | RH | 22.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.7% |
| Rays | Road | 27.0% | 9.4% | RH | 25.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.9% | 8.3% | RH | 20.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.1% | 7.8% | RH | 17.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.3% | 9.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.9% | 8.7% | RH | 19.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.4% |
| Mets | Home | 19.8% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.8% | 8.2% | LH | 20.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.5% | 9.3% | RH | 23.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.9% | 8.4% | RH | 23.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 34.2% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 2017 | 33.3% | 16.3% | 14.8% | Home | 32.9% | 14.3% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 14.3% | 27.6% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 2017 | 29.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | Road | 31.7% | 17.4% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 16.7% | 6.4% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 33.9% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 2017 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 13.6% | Home | 30.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 2017 | 32.8% | 12.1% | 16.4% | Home | 16.0% | 0.0% | -8.0% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 6.3% | 13.1% | Home | 36.0% | 10.4% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | -8.6% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 34.5% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 2017 | 39.5% | 9.3% | 24.5% | Road | 35.0% | 17.6% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 15.4% | 44.8% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 21.4% | Home | 35.7% | 20.0% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 12.5% | 17.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 36.7% | 21.4% | 28.5% | 2017 | 36.7% | 21.4% | 28.5% | Road | 42.9% | 16.7% | 28.6% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 22.0% | 14.6% | 2017 | 33.9% | 22.6% | 12.1% | Road | 34.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 36.4% | 15.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.9% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 2017 | 31.0% | 9.8% | 14.3% | Home | 30.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 20.0% | -8.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 28.5% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 2017 | 26.0% | 11.7% | 2.2% | Home | 30.4% | 22.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 2017 | 32.4% | 15.3% | 12.1% | Road | 30.4% | 15.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 13.4% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 46.6% | 14.8% | 29.4% | 2017 | 46.6% | 14.8% | 29.4% | Road | 33.3% | 15.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 21.1% | 32.5% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 2017 | 30.0% | 5.9% | 18.0% | Road | 31.1% | 12.6% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 7.1% | 18.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 2017 | 33.2% | 10.5% | 19.7% | Home | 29.7% | 14.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 46.8% | 13.3% | 36.2% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2017 | 29.0% | 1.9% | 7.9% | Home | 32.5% | 15.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 33.2% | 13.3% | 12.7% | Home | 30.7% | 12.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 25.0% | 11.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.2% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 2017 | 28.7% | 13.5% | 7.4% | Home | 31.5% | 11.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 2017 | 35.3% | 11.6% | 20.8% | Home | 30.6% | 12.2% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 23.1% | 38.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.8% | 16.4% | 14.2% | 2017 | 34.1% | 22.8% | 15.6% | Road | 31.2% | 12.5% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 30.8% | 17.2% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.6% | 11.5% | 17.6% | Road | 33.7% | 14.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 47.4% | 30.0% | 31.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 27.0% | 5.3% | 11.3% | Home | 33.1% | 8.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.0% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 2017 | 30.8% | 16.7% | 14.1% | Road | 29.5% | 15.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 2017 | 29.8% | 9.8% | 6.2% | Road | 28.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 18.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.5% | 17.3% | 2017 | 42.5% | 12.1% | 25.1% | Road | 32.1% | 12.4% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 14.8% | 22.7% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 36.7% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 2017 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | Home | 41.4% | 12.5% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2017 | 28.1% | 11.8% | 6.7% | Road | 23.8% | 6.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 27.8% | 13.1% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 2017 | 34.5% | 17.4% | 13.0% | Home | 30.8% | 16.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.7% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 2017 | 34.4% | 14.5% | 17.9% | Road | 30.0% | 10.6% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 6.7% | 28.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 8.4% | Road | 21.2% | 11.8% | -7.0% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 35.8% | 11.6% | 19.0% | LH | 33.0% | 12.3% | 16.1% | L7Days | 28.1% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 28.5% | 14.2% | 7.4% | RH | 29.6% | 14.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.2% | 6.2% |
| Royals | Road | 32.1% | 15.6% | 12.6% | RH | 32.6% | 12.9% | 13.3% | L7Days | 33.0% | 21.3% | 12.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.9% | 11.4% | 16.8% | RH | 34.4% | 13.9% | 19.1% | L7Days | 35.2% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| Padres | Road | 30.4% | 14.9% | 8.4% | RH | 29.0% | 14.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.1% | 17.9% | 1.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.4% | 14.1% | 37.7% | RH | 43.3% | 12.7% | 28.7% | L7Days | 46.1% | 11.3% | 34.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.9% | 12.4% | 12.8% | RH | 35.8% | 9.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 40.4% | 7.3% | 24.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.1% | 19.2% | 17.6% | RH | 33.8% | 18.7% | 14.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 25.0% | 12.4% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 16.0% | 7.2% | LH | 29.2% | 18.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.1% | 13.0% | 7.5% | RH | 29.7% | 13.8% | 12.3% | L7Days | 35.1% | 23.2% | 15.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.8% | 14.1% | 9.2% | LH | 30.0% | 20.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 19.0% | 7.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | RH | 30.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| Angels | Home | 28.4% | 13.8% | 9.7% | RH | 30.6% | 12.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 11.9% | 14.6% |
| Braves | Home | 30.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | LH | 30.2% | 15.5% | 12.7% | L7Days | 31.6% | 12.9% | 16.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.7% | 12.6% | 11.3% | RH | 36.8% | 16.5% | 20.4% | L7Days | 40.2% | 19.1% | 24.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 32.3% | 13.5% | 14.9% | RH | 32.9% | 18.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 36.0% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| Giants | Road | 30.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | LH | 27.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 31.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.9% | 13.7% | 14.1% | RH | 31.2% | 13.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 38.1% | 12.1% | 23.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.8% | 10.3% | 14.0% | LH | 29.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.0% | 9.2% | 16.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.6% | 16.8% | 17.4% | RH | 34.8% | 14.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 7.3% | 13.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.3% | 15.4% | 11.4% | RH | 29.7% | 13.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 30.7% | 8.8% | 13.0% |
| Rays | Road | 34.9% | 17.7% | 16.3% | RH | 36.5% | 18.8% | 19.7% | L7Days | 34.7% | 11.3% | 22.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.4% | 12.7% | 17.7% | RH | 33.5% | 14.7% | 17.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 20.3% | 14.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.5% | 14.6% | 10.8% | RH | 30.7% | 16.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.5% | 21.4% | 17.3% |
| Astros | Home | 29.2% | 15.9% | 10.4% | RH | 31.6% | 15.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.3% | 14.8% | 11.5% | RH | 31.2% | 14.7% | 13.8% | L7Days | 34.8% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| Mets | Home | 34.3% | 10.3% | 15.6% | RH | 36.0% | 14.3% | 18.9% | L7Days | 37.4% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 12.5% | 15.5% | LH | 32.8% | 6.8% | 15.2% | L7Days | 32.1% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 32.4% | 15.3% | 12.4% | RH | 32.2% | 15.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 18.0% | 9.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.1% | 13.9% | 9.9% | RH | 29.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.6% | 15.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 20.4% | 9.4% | 2.17 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 2.11 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.42 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 2.53 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 25.4% | 9.8% | 2.59 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.29 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 16.5% | 9.2% | 1.79 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 1.79 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.8% | 10.5% | 2.17 | 26.7% | 11.8% | 2.26 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.0% | 13.1% | 2.29 | 35.5% | 14.9% | 2.38 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.40 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.40 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 29.4% | 11.5% | 2.56 | 29.4% | 11.5% | 2.56 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 20.7% | 11.7% | 1.77 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 1.43 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.7% | 6.9% | 1.99 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 1.59 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 16.7% | 10.5% | 1.59 | 19.7% | 12.0% | 1.64 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 25.2% | 10.4% | 2.42 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 2.33 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 15.9% | 7.6% | 2.09 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.07 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.35 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 1.98 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 18.3% | 7.7% | 2.38 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 2.20 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.3% | 6.6% | 2.17 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 1.88 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 1.92 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.33 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 2.52 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 20.6% | 12.9% | 1.60 | 25.2% | 14.5% | 1.74 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 13.8% | 5.0% | 2.76 | 8.7% | 3.3% | 2.64 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.93 | 12.6% | 8.0% | 1.58 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 28.6% | 13.7% | 2.09 | 29.4% | 14.8% | 1.99 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.21 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 3.00 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.98 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 1.75 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.86 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.86 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.32 | 38.6% | 15.3% | 2.52 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.7% | 7.5% | 2.63 | 10.7% | 5.5% | 1.95 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.16 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 2.50 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 21.2% | 13.4% | 1.58 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 1.47 |
We have a few under-achievers today, two extreme ground ballers and one perennial offender.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 5.75 | 4.98 | -0.77 | 5.15 | -0.6 | 5.58 | -0.17 | 5.23 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 4.72 | -1.02 | 4.74 | -1 | 5.2 | -0.54 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.73 | 4.53 | -0.2 | 4.28 | -0.45 | 3.67 | -1.06 | 6.11 | 1.38 | 3.86 | 4.51 | 0.65 | 4.38 | 0.52 | 3.28 | -0.58 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 4.05 | 4.97 | 0.92 | 4.64 | 0.59 | 4.21 | 0.16 | 4.80 | 0.75 | 2.61 | 4.8 | 2.19 | 4.37 | 1.76 | 3.81 | 1.2 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 5.21 | 4.96 | -0.25 | 5.61 | 0.4 | 5.29 | 0.08 | 5.86 | 0.65 | 5.21 | 4.96 | -0.25 | 5.61 | 0.4 | 5.29 | 0.08 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.83 | 4.21 | 1.38 | 4.18 | 1.35 | 3.19 | 0.36 | 4.21 | 1.38 | 1.99 | 3.63 | 1.64 | 3.56 | 1.57 | 3.29 | 1.3 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.8 | 3.39 | -0.41 | 3.37 | -0.43 | 2.86 | -0.94 | 2.11 | -1.69 | 3.97 | 2.6 | -1.37 | 2.39 | -1.58 | 2.19 | -1.78 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 6.59 | 3.83 | -2.76 | 4.12 | -2.47 | 4.52 | -2.07 | 6.17 | -0.42 | 6.59 | 3.84 | -2.75 | 4.12 | -2.47 | 4.52 | -2.07 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 8.5 | 3.96 | -4.54 | 4.93 | -3.57 | 6.52 | -1.98 | 4.91 | -3.59 | 8.5 | 3.96 | -4.54 | 4.93 | -3.57 | 6.52 | -1.98 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.42 | 4.11 | -0.31 | 4.08 | -0.34 | 5.19 | 0.77 | 5.06 | 0.64 | 3.76 | 3.95 | 0.19 | 4.09 | 0.33 | 5.18 | 1.42 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.83 | 4.34 | 1.51 | 3.98 | 1.15 | 3.53 | 0.7 | 4.36 | 1.53 | 3.38 | 4.6 | 1.22 | 4.1 | 0.72 | 3.65 | 0.27 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.16 | 4.63 | 1.47 | 4.3 | 1.14 | 4.11 | 0.95 | 4.87 | 1.71 | 1.49 | 3.35 | 1.86 | 3.24 | 1.75 | 2.89 | 1.4 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.68 | 3.81 | -0.87 | 3.81 | -0.87 | 4.04 | -0.64 | 4.12 | -0.56 | 3.49 | 3.83 | 0.34 | 3.65 | 0.16 | 3.66 | 0.17 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 4.67 | 5.9 | 1.23 | 6.28 | 1.61 | 6.54 | 1.87 | 5.28 | 5.57 | 0.29 | 6.05 | 0.77 | 6.46 | 1.18 | ||
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.02 | 4.39 | 0.37 | 4.34 | 0.32 | 3.26 | -0.76 | 5.05 | 1.03 | 4.02 | 4.4 | 0.38 | 4.34 | 0.32 | 3.26 | -0.76 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 5.09 | 4.63 | -0.46 | 4.68 | -0.41 | 4.19 | -0.9 | 6.56 | 1.47 | 6.12 | 4.67 | -1.45 | 4.42 | -1.7 | 4.29 | -1.83 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.56 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 4.2 | 0.64 | 2.9 | -0.66 | 4.11 | 0.55 | 5.5 | 3.99 | -1.51 | 3.44 | -2.06 | 2.47 | -3.03 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.57 | 4.87 | 1.3 | 4.75 | 1.18 | 4.73 | 1.16 | 5.24 | 1.67 | 4.25 | 4.93 | 0.68 | 5.13 | 0.88 | 5.86 | 1.61 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.09 | 3.64 | 0.55 | 3.48 | 0.39 | 3.48 | 0.39 | 3.70 | 0.61 | 2.67 | 3.2 | 0.53 | 3.2 | 0.53 | 3.5 | 0.83 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.56 | 4.91 | 0.35 | 4.53 | -0.03 | 4.29 | -0.27 | 5.04 | 0.48 | 5.67 | 4.12 | -1.55 | 3.95 | -1.72 | 4.47 | -1.2 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.07 | 4.14 | -1.93 | 4.18 | -1.89 | 5.49 | -0.58 | 5.11 | -0.96 | 6.51 | 3.76 | -2.75 | 3.79 | -2.72 | 5.52 | -0.99 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.22 | 5.4 | 0.18 | 5.18 | -0.04 | 4.89 | -0.33 | 8.05 | 2.83 | 7.09 | 5.49 | -1.6 | 5.15 | -1.94 | 5.87 | -1.22 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.4 | 4.18 | 0.78 | 4.06 | 0.66 | 3.03 | -0.37 | 2.99 | -0.41 | 4.59 | 4.58 | -0.01 | 4.33 | -0.26 | 2.32 | -2.27 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 4.09 | 4.17 | 0.08 | 3.98 | -0.11 | 4.35 | 0.26 | 2.95 | -1.14 | 4.76 | 3.57 | -1.19 | 3.59 | -1.17 | 4.68 | -0.08 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 3.81 | 5.35 | 1.54 | 5.24 | 1.43 | 4.74 | 0.93 | 4.16 | 0.35 | 2.08 | 4.53 | 2.45 | 4.36 | 2.28 | 3.44 | 1.36 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.67 | 4.04 | -0.63 | 4.22 | -0.45 | 3.96 | -0.71 | 4.95 | 0.28 | 5.54 | 4.5 | -1.04 | 4.56 | -0.98 | 3.99 | -1.55 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 1.29 | 4.38 | 3.09 | 4.72 | 3.43 | 2.7 | 1.41 | 5.79 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 4.38 | 3.09 | 4.72 | 3.43 | 2.7 | 1.41 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.27 | 3.35 | 0.08 | 3.22 | -0.05 | 3.03 | -0.24 | 2.31 | -0.96 | 3.03 | 2.31 | -0.72 | 2.22 | -0.81 | 2.64 | -0.39 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 3.97 | 4.76 | 0.79 | 4.29 | 0.32 | 4.64 | 0.67 | 4.49 | 0.52 | 5.63 | 4.77 | -0.86 | 4.58 | -1.05 | 4.88 | -0.75 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.11 | 4.97 | -1.14 | 4.68 | -1.43 | 4.8 | -1.31 | 4.99 | -1.12 | 9 | 5.17 | -3.83 | 4.95 | -4.05 | 5.65 | -3.35 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.44 | 3.75 | 1.31 | 3.33 | 0.89 | 3.34 | 0.9 | 3.42 | 0.98 | 2.81 | 3.89 | 1.08 | 3.49 | 0.68 | 3.41 | 0.6 |
Zack Godley will not sustain a .239 BABIP and 80.9 LOB%, though the latter may be nearly within reach if his strikeout rate begins to coincide with his SwStr%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.285 | 0.307 | 0.022 | 40.7% | 0.194 | 9.3% | 84.5% | 88.9 | 8.30% | 5.60% | 108 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.292 | 0.353 | 0.061 | 48.9% | 0.233 | 11.5% | 90.4% | 85.3 | 4.50% | 3.20% | 223 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.291 | 0.300 | 0.009 | 45.1% | 0.235 | 12.5% | 89.1% | 86.8 | 6.80% | 3.90% | 103 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.281 | 0.298 | 0.017 | 27.6% | 0.155 | 12.1% | 86.0% | 86.6 | 9.80% | 7.60% | 61 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.303 | 0.293 | -0.01 | 40.5% | 0.205 | 11.3% | 83.8% | 84 | 4.20% | 2.90% | 213 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.022 | 42.0% | 0.208 | 11.6% | 82.1% | 89.1 | 6.00% | 3.70% | 233 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 0.291 | 0.400 | 0.109 | 31.7% | 0.22 | 10.5% | 80.9% | 88.9 | 11.90% | 7.90% | 42 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.301 | 0.302 | 0.001 | 30.6% | 0.122 | 0.0% | 82.9% | 88.7 | 18.40% | 10.60% | 49 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.281 | 0.296 | 0.015 | 49.7% | 0.193 | 9.4% | 81.7% | 86.3 | 7.50% | 5.30% | 174 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.306 | 0.262 | -0.044 | 49.5% | 0.216 | 8.5% | 92.9% | 88.2 | 5.40% | 4.60% | 294 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.284 | 0.259 | -0.025 | 56.7% | 0.173 | 6.7% | 86.6% | 85.1 | 4.30% | 3.10% | 235 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.293 | 0.321 | 0.028 | 42.5% | 0.227 | 9.7% | 81.9% | 86.9 | 6.30% | 4.20% | 207 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.298 | 0.296 | -0.002 | 32.1% | 0.196 | 11.1% | 92.6% | ||||
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.281 | 0.286 | 0.005 | 50.0% | 0.16 | 5.9% | 87.5% | 86.8 | 4.00% | 2.90% | 50 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.306 | 0.327 | 0.021 | 40.4% | 0.211 | 7.0% | 88.6% | 88.7 | 6.60% | 4.70% | 229 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.296 | 0.311 | 0.015 | 47.3% | 0.247 | 7.7% | 88.9% | 87.1 | 4.20% | 3.10% | 190 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.288 | 0.284 | -0.004 | 57.8% | 0.169 | 11.7% | 91.6% | 86.2 | 4.50% | 3.40% | 244 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.305 | 0.325 | 0.02 | 61.2% | 0.174 | 3.8% | 89.5% | 87.7 | 6.10% | 4.50% | 244 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.282 | 0.352 | 0.07 | 43.3% | 0.268 | 10.1% | 91.0% | 87.4 | 6.40% | 4.70% | 235 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.280 | 0.313 | 0.033 | 47.6% | 0.179 | 12.7% | 86.6% | 89.1 | 10.30% | 7.50% | 232 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.315 | 0.328 | 0.013 | 45.1% | 0.217 | 7.7% | 90.6% | 87.9 | 4.60% | 3.50% | 238 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.312 | 0.295 | -0.017 | 48.0% | 0.211 | 9.2% | 88.4% | 85.6 | 4.80% | 3.70% | 248 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.310 | 0.247 | -0.063 | 41.6% | 0.195 | 10.0% | 81.4% | 87.7 | 11.50% | 6.80% | 78 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.280 | 0.256 | -0.024 | 46.9% | 0.213 | 9.8% | 89.2% | 87.1 | 5.60% | 4.20% | 161 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.313 | 0.366 | 0.053 | 37.4% | 0.22 | 8.6% | 85.9% | 88.8 | 9.40% | 7.00% | 287 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.319 | 0.300 | -0.019 | 35.0% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 89.7% | ||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.295 | 0.270 | -0.025 | 46.2% | 0.195 | 9.2% | 84.4% | 88.2 | 8.90% | 5.80% | 224 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.314 | 0.318 | 0.004 | 54.3% | 0.226 | 13.0% | 91.7% | 87.6 | 5.50% | 3.70% | 200 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.288 | 0.323 | 0.035 | 46.2% | 0.231 | 13.0% | 87.9% | 88.1 | 6.10% | 4.40% | 230 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.287 | 0.239 | -0.048 | 61.6% | 0.188 | 13.6% | 87.8% | 83.2 | 5.00% | 3.50% | 120 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Stephen Strasburg (1) allowed three of his nine HRs in his last start, but doesn’t really have contact issues and he still struck out 10. Despite an ERA with estimators slightly above his career rates (though not much), he seems to be having one of the more consistent seasons of his career. His strikeout rate has shot up over the last month and he now has his highest SwStr% since his initial callup in 2010.
Value Tier Two
Zack Godley (3) has been doing an exceptional job and has a great matchup at a still reasonable price. It’s actually hurting him (in terms of daily fantasy points) in that he’s generating ground balls early in the count and missing out on strikeouts with an elite swinging strike rate, but that might be the correct approach in Arizona. He’s still been worth his cost.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (2) is essentially tied for the highest price tag on the slate and may have the best strikeout potential. He’s also allowing too much hard contact for his low HR rate. That could be a concern against this Detroit offense.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
While I like the three pitchers above much more than anybody else, there is no fourth tier per se, but there are a number of pitchers that could be considered in this capacity today, who we’d not normally entertain on a larger slate: Masahiro Tanaka, Jaime Garcia, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Michael Fulmer, Chase Anderson
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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