Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 25th
We’re listing every pitcher from 4pm ET on today, but only covering the late games in the notes.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 11.1 | 4.66 | 5.53 | 0.88 | 1.07 | 3.74 | BOS | 119 | 120 | 111 | |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | -8.2 | 4.17 | 5.98 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 4.44 | 3.83 | CLE | 79 | 104 | 160 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | -2.7 | 4.54 | 5.69 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 3.85 | 5.45 | SDG | 89 | 118 | 134 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 9.6 | 2.77 | 6.23 | 1.86 | 1.01 | 2.58 | 3.74 | DET | 114 | 107 | 101 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -5.2 | 4.24 | 5.92 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 4.1 | 3.44 | TAM | 107 | 91 | 50 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 6.2 | 4.79 | 5.23 | 0.42 | 1.04 | 5.09 | 4.23 | HOU | 97 | 100 | 162 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | -5.3 | 3.66 | 5.44 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 3.84 | 4.16 | CIN | 86 | 94 | 71 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.3 | 3.64 | 5.82 | 1.76 | 1.05 | 3.83 | 4.61 | MIL | 94 | 88 | 95 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -5 | 3.03 | 6.36 | 1.41 | 0.96 | 3.38 | 2.8 | ATL | 72 | 77 | 94 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -3 | 3.93 | 5.83 | 0.78 | 1.04 | 4.11 | 2.94 | BAL | 109 | 115 | 143 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.5 | 4.46 | 5.8 | 1.75 | 0.95 | 4.09 | 4.07 | LOS | 89 | 80 | 125 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -4.2 | 4.04 | 5.4 | 1.11 | 0.89 | 4.19 | 4.13 | SFO | 109 | 104 | 128 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 2.3 | 4.43 | 5.51 | 1.68 | 0.92 | 4.14 | 6.83 | OAK | 94 | 84 | 84 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 7.6 | 3.83 | 6.5 | 1.25 | 1 | 3.83 | 4.2 | FLA | 87 | 96 | 104 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 1.6 | 4.03 | 5.66 | 1.72 | 1.37 | 4.01 | 5.49 | ARI | 104 | 121 | 106 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.1 | 4 | 6.26 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 3.74 | 3.16 | NYM | 98 | 97 | 74 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.6 | 3.78 | 5.8 | 1.19 | 0.95 | 3.29 | 3.33 | PIT | 115 | 105 | 102 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 8.5 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 1.11 | 0.89 | 3.02 | 3.15 | PHI | 87 | 58 | 102 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -6 | 4.42 | 5.68 | 1.31 | 1.05 | 4.04 | 3.98 | WAS | 101 | 92 | 88 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.4 | 3.74 | 5.95 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 4.46 | 4.43 | KAN | 107 | 92 | 101 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -7.7 | 3.96 | 6.34 | 1.88 | 0.9 | 3.89 | 2.79 | SEA | 111 | 113 | 87 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -4 | 3.97 | 5.52 | 1.12 | 0.9 | 4.17 | 3.56 | STL | 113 | 118 | 95 |
| Paul Clemens | FLA | 3.3 | 6.04 | 5. | 0.67 | 1 | 6.79 | 6.76 | CHC | 111 | 106 | 113 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -5.3 | 4.45 | 5.86 | 1.2 | 1.37 | 4.76 | 3.42 | COL | 102 | 97 | 107 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 4.9 | 4.26 | 6.47 | 1.3 | 1.07 | 4.39 | 4.27 | TEX | 98 | 89 | 91 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | -12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.92 | ANA | 99 | 100 | 96 |
Jacob deGrom is nearly back to form. The ERA and strikeout rate would have you believe he’s entirely back, but I have a couple of reservations. His velocity has been up and down between where it was during his rookie season, but with several below. He was in the low 90’s in his last start, one of his five lowest starts of the year. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last five with six strikeout or more over his last six, though his SwStr% has actually decreased over the last month. He faces the Braves, who have been a bit better recently and are an offense he’s been decent against in two starts (11.2 IP – 4 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 9 K – 49 BF), but they are still one of tonight’s top park-adjusted matchups (5.9 HR/FB at home, 6.2 HR/FB and 5.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Jeremy Hellickson has seen a reduction in his strikeout rate over the last month, but still has an 11.0 SwStr%, making it less concerning. While his 16.0 K-BB% this season remains impressive, a 19.3 HR/FB and 24.1 LD% are still concerning. Hard contact is at a league average 30.1% over the last month, the same as it is on the season, which is about league average. The issue is that one third of his contact is in the air in a small park. That’s why tonight strengthens a weakness (Giants 6.8 HR/FB, 4.7 Hard-Soft% at home), but hinders a strength (16.1 K% vs RHP). Overall, this is a difficult offense, but a great park, making it seem like a neutral spot.
Julio Teheran one-hit these same Mets last time out, striking out seven of 28 batters and has now struck out seven or more in five of his last six starts. His 23.9 K% is the best of his career, though his 9.8 SwStr% is his lowest mark of the last four seasons. Although he allows a lot of contact in the air (0.96 GB/FB) in a favorable park, 35.5% hard contact is still a bit of concern, as he has allowed 13 HRs this season.
Kenta Maeda was great in April before the league had seen him and bad in May after he’d become more of a known quantity. He seems to have made the adjustments in June to find a decent medium, though not all of his results should be taken at face value. A 16.9 K-BB% with fairly average batted ball and contact rates is far from a bad pitcher though. The Pirates have the third best unadjusted home offense, but a negative run environment neutralizes this matchup.
Madison Bumgarner has pitched into the eighth inning in six of his last nine starts with an increased SwStr% that even further supports a career-high 28.1 K%. However, his 21.2 K-BB% is more than a point below last year due to a nearly league average walk rate. He’s facing the worst offense in baseball vs LHP (16.4 K-BB%, 6.3 HR/FB, 4.5 Hard-Soft%) in San Francisco tonight. You know who your top pitcher is.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Chris Tillman (.263 BABIP – 83.9 LOB% – 13.8 HR/FB) has a strand rate that pushes his ERA closer to league average, although his increased K% in addition to his reduced walk rate this month (four walks in four starts) now has his K-BB at a career best 15.3%. The Rays (25.2 K% vs RHP) could help him to a top three strikeout rate tonight, but they also have a lot of power (16.4 HR/FB on the road, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP) and I still don’t see him as a $9K pitcher, much less $11K, as he’s listed on DraftKings.
Steven Wright (.246 BABIP – 76.4 LOB% – 4.5 HR/FB) now has just 10.8 K-BB%. I previously struggled with the low HR rate, but now I’m questioning the BABIP as well. Although he’s generating a lot of weak contact (4.3 Hard-Soft%), he’s not generating popups or a reduced rate of line drives. Knuckleballs are often difficult to square up even in the strike zone though, as seen from his 76.8 Z-Contact% that leads baseball.
A.J. Griffin (.237 BABIP – 73.9 LOB% – 4.9 HR/FB) is coming off a month and a half on the DL with a shoulder issue. He made three starts at AA, the last of which wasn’t bad, striking out seven of 21 batters, but even if he were as impressive as his ERA, he’s facing Boston tonight in a tough park.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake is a HR-prone pitcher (13.9 career HR/FB, 17.1 HR/FB this season) facing a team that hits a ton of HRs in a tough park (17.1 HR/FB at home). His 16.0 K% is right in line with his 16.1% career mark, but his 5.6 SwStr% is a career low by 0.7 points below last year’s 6.3%. The one bit of good news is that he’s not walking anybody (3.9 career best BB%) and the Mariners have just a 4.2 BB% over the last week. Considering all of my favored pitchers are well above $8K on FanDuel, if the need is there for a $7K pitcher, this might be where I’d go, though I’d really try to find a way to pay up first.
Nate Karns has one of the higher strikeout rates on the board, but also a double digit walk rate that often knocks him out of games early (five innings or less in six of his last seven) and he has a tough matchup against the second best offense vs RHP (14.7 HR/FB, 14.9 Hard-Soft%).
Mike Fiers is impossible to figure out. His SwStr% is right on his career mark, but his K% is well down. This might have been a decent spot for his skill set in the past, but he’s dropped 10 points off his fly ball rate this season. You might be able to do worse than $6.6K on DraftKings, but I’d probably rather save more money with Hellickson or even Locke and pay up for Bumgarner in that spot.
Jeff Locke should be an easy pass on both sites, though he is min-priced and may actually be a one of five usable pitchers on DraftKings tonight and a not so terrible punt complement to Bumgarner (or deGrom), at least in point-per-dollar expectation. Pittsburgh is a favorable park for LHPs, and he has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last five home starts with only as many as four runs once. Though his strikeout rate is just a bit higher (14.0% at home), his SwStr% is not terrible. Feel free to easily punt for $6.6K on FanDuel. The Dodgers are finally showing signs of an offense over the last week, though still appear to offer a favorable matchup here.
Jake Odorizzi has a career 0.87 GB/FB and 12.5 HR/FB on the road. He allowed four runs in six innings in his first start in Baltimore back in April, but allowed just four runs. An increase in strikeout rate over the last month is not real. He’s had a SwStr% above league average just once in his last four starts. Baltimore is hot and one of tonight’s worst matchups.
Dillon Overton is not a top prospect, but has been called a back of the rotation possibility in the Fangraphs pre-season prospect list at number 12. He hasn’t struck out a lot of batters above A ball and faces one of the toughest offenses to strike out in the majors (16.7% vs LHP).
Chris Young has the highest strikeout rate of his career (23.8%), but his 8.5 BB% is equal to the rate at which he’s allowed HRs and I don’t mean an 8.5 HR/FB. He has allowed a HR to 8.5% of the batters he’s faced with a 40.4 Hard% and 0.54 GB/FB. He’s only facing the hottest offense in the league tonight.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 10.2% | Home | 21.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.5% | Home | 20.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 19.1% | 10.6% | Home | 20.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 28.0% | 5.6% | Road | 31.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| Chris Young | Royals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.3% | Home | 20.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 12.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.7% | Road | 26.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 12.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.3% | Road | 21.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 14.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.9% | 5.5% | Road | 23.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 4.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 8.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.2% | Home | 16.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 2.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.8% | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 17.5% | 8.4% | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 7.5% | 15.0% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.2% | Road | 21.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 9.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.4% | 9.2% | Home | 23.7% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.5% | Home | 23.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 1.9% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.2% | 7.4% | Road | 25.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 8.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 26.4% | 4.9% | Home | 29.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 5.4% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.7% | Home | 17.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 2.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.9% | Road | 19.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.1% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.5% | 5.6% | Road | 15.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.9% | 9.6% | Home | 21.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 10.9% |
| Paul Clemens | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.4% | 15.4% | Home | 9.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.3% | 8.9% | Road | 15.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.6% | Road | 18.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 6.2% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | RH | 17.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 12.1% |
| Indians | Road | 22.6% | 7.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.7% |
| Padres | Road | 24.5% | 6.9% | LH | 23.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 10.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.2% | 8.7% | RH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Road | 24.0% | 8.5% | RH | 25.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 4.9% |
| Astros | Road | 23.4% | 9.5% | RH | 24.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 12.7% |
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 6.8% | LH | 22.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.4% | 10.5% | LH | 23.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 27.8% | 6.7% |
| Braves | Home | 20.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 4.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.3% | 8.7% | RH | 22.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | LH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.2% |
| Giants | Home | 17.1% | 10.4% | RH | 16.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 13.4% | 6.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 6.2% | RH | 18.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 12.8% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 7.5% | RH | 19.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 21.8% | 7.4% | LH | 21.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Road | 23.3% | 8.3% | RH | 22.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | RH | 20.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 5.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.1% | 6.2% | LH | 23.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.3% | 7.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 8.2% | RH | 20.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 4.5% |
| Royals | Home | 17.5% | 6.8% | RH | 20.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 15.1% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 4.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.5% | 9.2% | RH | 19.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 10.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 10.0% | RH | 22.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.1% | 7.5% | RH | 18.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 4.1% |
| Angels | Home | 16.2% | 8.3% | LH | 16.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 4.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.8% | 4.9% | 10.5% | 2016 | 35.8% | 4.9% | 10.5% | Home | 37.8% | 7.7% | 13.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 2016 | 33.0% | 16.3% | 14.8% | Home | 28.3% | 13.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 14.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 33.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 2016 | 35.1% | 12.2% | 17.9% | Home | 33.7% | 19.6% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 12.5% | 12.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 2016 | 38.5% | 24.3% | 23.7% | Road | 24.3% | 10.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 25.0% | 21.6% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 2016 | 31.7% | 13.8% | 9.6% | Home | 26.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| Chris Young | Royals | L2 Years | 33.9% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 2016 | 40.4% | 23.8% | 27.1% | Home | 34.9% | 9.4% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 16.7% | 33.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 2016 | 29.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | Road | 23.9% | 7.6% | -0.5% | L14 Days | 48.3% | 36.4% | 31.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 2016 | 32.9% | 11.0% | 12.6% | Road | 30.6% | 6.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 2016 | 31.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | Road | 30.9% | 12.4% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 22.2% | -9.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 2016 | 36.0% | 12.1% | 17.8% | Road | 30.4% | 11.5% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 13.3% | 10.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 28.4% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 2016 | 29.1% | 12.8% | 11.4% | Home | 26.3% | 11.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 2016 | 31.0% | 19.3% | 10.6% | Road | 34.9% | 16.0% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 15.4% | 2.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 34.4% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 2016 | 32.0% | 11.5% | 10.1% | Home | 28.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | -6.7% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 2016 | 32.4% | 10.1% | 17.3% | Road | 31.0% | 11.6% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.4% | 15.0% | 2016 | 35.7% | 25.6% | 14.3% | Home | 32.9% | 21.1% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 13.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.5% | 11.8% | 19.3% | Home | 35.4% | 10.1% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 4.8% | 21.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 2016 | 28.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | Road | 29.1% | 4.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 2016 | 33.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | Home | 28.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 47.2% | 14.3% | 25.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 2016 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% | Home | 37.6% | 19.7% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 2016 | 35.1% | 16.9% | 16.9% | Road | 31.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 2016 | 36.2% | 17.1% | 21.6% | Road | 31.2% | 14.5% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 2016 | 30.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | Home | 31.9% | 11.1% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 12.5% | 26.9% |
| Paul Clemens | Marlins | L2 Years | 44.4% | 33.3% | 38.8% | 2016 | 47.1% | 37.5% | 41.2% | Home | 47.1% | 37.5% | 41.2% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 37.5% | 41.2% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 2016 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 18.9% | Road | 28.0% | 7.9% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | -26.3% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 2016 | 26.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | Road | 29.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 33.4% | 15.1% | 13.2% | RH | 34.3% | 13.1% | 15.2% | L7Days | 38.5% | 11.9% | 18.5% |
| Indians | Road | 31.2% | 11.2% | 12.7% | RH | 31.7% | 13.8% | 14.9% | L7Days | 34.1% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| Padres | Road | 32.6% | 14.7% | 14.9% | LH | 31.0% | 17.5% | 13.6% | L7Days | 29.6% | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 33.4% | 13.2% | 17.9% | RH | 32.7% | 13.7% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.3% | 13.8% | 22.9% |
| Rays | Road | 33.7% | 16.4% | 15.4% | RH | 33.9% | 15.1% | 13.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 13.2% | 12.5% |
| Astros | Road | 34.5% | 14.7% | 17.8% | RH | 34.6% | 15.1% | 17.5% | L7Days | 38.5% | 21.6% | 18.6% |
| Reds | Home | 32.1% | 16.1% | 15.2% | LH | 29.4% | 15.9% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 35.5% | 15.1% | 18.7% | LH | 32.7% | 12.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| Braves | Home | 26.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | RH | 25.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.2% | 7.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.5% | 15.6% | 12.2% | RH | 32.3% | 16.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 32.2% | 14.3% | 17.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 11.6% | 17.7% | LH | 31.5% | 13.4% | 15.7% | L7Days | 38.7% | 19.1% | 25.8% |
| Giants | Home | 26.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | RH | 30.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.5% | 12.1% | 11.0% | RH | 29.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 30.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.0% | 11.5% | 8.7% | RH | 29.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.4% | 18.5% | 12.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.3% | 13.9% | 12.9% | LH | 35.1% | 19.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 30.6% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| Mets | Road | 34.1% | 15.5% | 19.4% | RH | 34.6% | 14.5% | 16.9% | L7Days | 40.1% | 9.7% | 21.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | RH | 29.0% | 10.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 33.7% | 16.4% | 11.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.6% | 12.3% | 9.8% | LH | 25.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | L7Days | 30.7% | 12.7% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.8% | 15.2% | 17.8% | RH | 32.3% | 13.8% | 15.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| Royals | Home | 29.8% | 10.4% | 7.7% | RH | 29.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 6.8% | 13.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.6% | 17.1% | 13.1% | RH | 32.3% | 15.6% | 14.8% | L7Days | 28.9% | 14.7% | 11.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.5% | 14.0% | 13.3% | RH | 32.8% | 14.7% | 14.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 10.9% | 13.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.6% | 14.8% | 14.5% | RH | 31.2% | 13.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 19.7% | 8.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 36.0% | 14.9% | 18.9% | RH | 32.9% | 15.0% | 15.4% | L7Days | 38.3% | 16.4% | 20.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 27.4% | 11.7% | 7.4% | RH | 28.4% | 12.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 32.1% | 14.8% | 13.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | LH | 25.5% | 12.6% | 3.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.3% | 2.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.43 | |||
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 18.2% | 9.1% | 2.00 | 11.1% | 9.6% | 1.16 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 15.9% | 9.1% | 1.75 | 15.2% | 10.7% | 1.42 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 22.1% | 11.7% | 1.89 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 1.71 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 24.0% | 9.9% | 2.42 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.31 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.18 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 2.22 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 28.7% | 11.3% | 2.54 | 29.3% | 10.7% | 2.74 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 23.1% | 9.7% | 2.38 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 2.46 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.16 | 32.0% | 10.0% | 3.20 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.53 | 30.6% | 10.1% | 3.03 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 12.1% | 8.2% | 1.48 | 8.5% | 8.3% | 1.02 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 22.4% | 11.8% | 1.90 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 1.71 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.11 | 13.8% | 7.4% | 1.86 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 26.6% | 12.2% | 2.18 | 27.7% | 11.7% | 2.37 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.6% | 11.3% | 1.91 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 1.63 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 23.9% | 9.8% | 2.44 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 2.49 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.2% | 11.6% | 2.09 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 2.90 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.40 | 28.4% | 13.2% | 2.15 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.3% | 6.4% | 2.55 | 16.3% | 6.4% | 2.55 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 16.5% | 9.1% | 1.81 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 1.66 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.0% | 5.6% | 2.86 | 19.1% | 5.6% | 3.41 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 24.5% | 10.4% | 2.36 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.35 |
| Paul Clemens | FLA | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.78 | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.78 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 14.6% | 7.2% | 2.03 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 1.56 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 20.1% | 11.3% | 1.78 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 1.55 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK |
Jacob deGrom has a 10.0 SwStr% over the last month, which is fine and has only once been below 9%, but it backs up a 32.0 K%. Somewhere around 25% going forward (26.0% career mark) seems more likely.
Jeremy Hellickson has had a SwStr above 12% in three of five starts over the last month and has been below average just once, but was below 5% in that start. No worries here.
Kenta Maeda has lost two points off his SwStr% over the last month, but gained to points on his K%. Three of his last five starts have had a SwStr below 9% after being in double digits in eight of his first nine. I’d have trouble buying into anything above a low 20s K% right now.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 2.94 | 4.65 | 1.71 | 4.74 | 1.8 | 3.49 | 0.55 | |||||||
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.97 | 4.88 | -1.09 | 5.15 | -0.82 | 5.74 | -0.23 | 5.68 | 4.89 | -0.79 | 4.97 | -0.71 | 6.21 | 0.53 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 3.81 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 5.04 | 1.23 | 4.96 | 1.15 | 3.52 | 5.38 | 1.86 | 5.19 | 1.67 | 4.31 | 0.79 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.26 | 3.68 | 0.42 | 3.48 | 0.22 | 4.66 | 1.4 | 3.96 | 3.69 | -0.27 | 3.46 | -0.5 | 4.93 | 0.97 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 3.11 | 3.95 | 0.84 | 3.93 | 0.82 | 4.06 | 0.95 | 4.06 | 3.61 | -0.45 | 3.5 | -0.56 | 5.78 | 1.72 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 5.61 | 4.23 | -1.38 | 4.76 | -0.85 | 6.99 | 1.38 | 3.79 | 3.86 | 0.07 | 4.35 | 0.56 | 6.18 | 2.39 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.64 | 0.64 | 3.45 | 0.45 | 5.46 | 3.64 | -1.82 | 3.43 | -2.03 | 4.27 | -1.19 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.25 | 3.83 | -0.42 | 3.71 | -0.54 | 3.51 | -0.74 | 6.75 | 3.72 | -3.03 | 3.27 | -3.48 | 3.2 | -3.55 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.96 | 3.61 | 0.65 | 3.42 | 0.46 | 3.08 | 0.12 | 2.81 | 2.7 | -0.11 | 2.55 | -0.26 | 2.63 | -0.18 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.63 | 3.95 | 0.32 | 4.09 | 0.46 | 4 | 0.37 | 3.94 | 3.34 | -0.6 | 3.43 | -0.51 | 3.5 | -0.44 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 5.44 | 5.23 | -0.21 | 5.03 | -0.41 | 5.03 | -0.41 | 6.03 | 5.28 | -0.75 | 4.98 | -1.05 | 4.47 | -1.56 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.41 | 3.86 | -0.55 | 3.74 | -0.67 | 4.55 | 0.14 | 5.23 | 4.34 | -0.89 | 4.15 | -1.08 | 5.58 | 0.35 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 5.5 | 4.48 | -1.02 | 4.31 | -1.19 | 4.17 | -1.33 | 6.15 | 5.4 | -0.75 | 5.43 | -0.72 | 4.16 | -1.99 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 2.78 | 3.47 | 0.69 | 3.6 | 0.82 | 3.27 | 0.49 | 1.65 | 3.6 | 1.95 | 3.84 | 2.19 | 3.41 | 1.76 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 7.17 | 4.18 | -2.99 | 4.41 | -2.76 | 6.08 | -1.09 | 1.89 | 3.7 | 1.81 | 3.93 | 2.04 | 5.18 | 3.29 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 2.66 | 3.75 | 1.09 | 3.97 | 1.31 | 3.84 | 1.18 | 2.83 | 3.59 | 0.76 | 3.84 | 1.01 | 4.45 | 1.62 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.64 | 3.78 | 1.14 | 3.77 | 1.13 | 3.14 | 0.5 | 1.52 | 3.51 | 1.99 | 3.18 | 1.66 | 2.39 | 0.87 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1.85 | 3.35 | 1.5 | 3.46 | 1.61 | 2.97 | 1.12 | 1.26 | 3.26 | 2 | 3.39 | 2.13 | 2.85 | 1.59 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.9 | 3.98 | 3.08 | 3.99 | 3.09 | 2.33 | 1.43 | 0.9 | 3.98 | 3.08 | 3.99 | 3.09 | 2.33 | 1.43 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.42 | 4.22 | -0.2 | 4.07 | -0.35 | 4.59 | 0.17 | 4.55 | 4.77 | 0.22 | 5.12 | 0.57 | 4.9 | 0.35 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4 | 4.09 | 0.09 | 3.98 | -0.02 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.64 | -0.26 | 3.46 | -0.44 | 4.59 | 0.69 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 4.38 | 4.22 | -0.16 | 4.12 | -0.26 | 3.66 | -0.72 | 6.12 | 4.5 | -1.62 | 4.56 | -1.56 | 3.29 | -2.83 |
| Paul Clemens | FLA | 5.4 | 6.76 | 1.36 | 6.79 | 1.39 | 11.93 | 6.53 | 5.4 | 6.76 | 1.36 | 6.79 | 1.39 | 11.93 | 6.53 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 6.36 | 5.63 | -0.73 | 5.47 | -0.89 | 6.06 | -0.3 | 1.35 | 3.42 | 2.07 | 3.08 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 0.73 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.01 | 4.42 | 2.41 | 4.29 | 2.28 | 3.31 | 1.3 | 1.19 | 4.74 | 3.55 | 4.51 | 3.32 | 3.53 | 2.34 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK |
Jeremy Hellickson has a FIP matching his ERA, but not the other estimators due to his 19.3 HR/FB, which should see improvement, even in Philly. He’s in a great park tonight.
Julio Teheran is a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t induce a great amount of popups as a percentage of fly balls, but enough for a .271 BABIP career. This year, his 16.3 LD% is five points below the lowest previous mark of his career, while there is nothing else in his batted ball profile that backs up this year. His .206 BABIP is far out of range and his 81.6 LOB% is a bit too high, though he’s done well stranding runners in the past (76.8 career LOB%).
Kenta Maeda has a decent enough profile to sustain a .280 BABIP, though his 79.2 LOB% is a bit questionable as is his 7.7 HR/FB.
Madison Bumgarner has a career high 86.0 LOB%. His career rate is 76.7%. He’s never been above 77.9% (last year) in any full season in the majors.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.283 | 0.237 | -0.046 | 0.189 | 19.5% | 84.9% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.306 | 0.313 | 0.007 | 0.167 | 17.4% | 87.6% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.293 | 0.249 | -0.044 | 0.238 | 4.4% | 86.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.279 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 0.211 | 0.0% | 89.2% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.305 | 0.263 | -0.042 | 0.185 | 9.2% | 83.6% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.289 | 0.265 | -0.024 | 0.174 | 11.3% | 86.2% |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 0.303 | 0.254 | -0.049 | 0.171 | 12.5% | 83.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.285 | 0.315 | 0.03 | 0.212 | 12.3% | 86.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.304 | 0.294 | -0.01 | 0.232 | 4.8% | 83.6% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.296 | 0.272 | -0.024 | 0.179 | 9.1% | 84.7% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.302 | 0.288 | -0.014 | 0.184 | 6.4% | 87.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.304 | 0.293 | -0.011 | 0.241 | 9.6% | 83.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.012 | 0.199 | 13.1% | 91.6% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.252 | 0.258 | 0.006 | 0.221 | 6.7% | 88.1% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.317 | 0.320 | 0.003 | 0.182 | 4.7% | 88.3% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.287 | 0.206 | -0.081 | 0.163 | 8.2% | 87.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.276 | 0.280 | 0.004 | 0.208 | 15.4% | 82.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.289 | 0.264 | -0.025 | 0.215 | 11.9% | 81.7% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.306 | 0.382 | 0.076 | 0.212 | 0.0% | 93.5% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.306 | 0.301 | -0.005 | 0.278 | 11.7% | 84.8% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.284 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 0.205 | 3.7% | 94.0% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.038 | 0.248 | 10.5% | 86.5% |
| Paul Clemens | FLA | 0.302 | 0.286 | -0.016 | 0.125 | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.302 | 0.311 | 0.009 | 0.231 | 10.0% | 86.7% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.288 | 0.246 | -0.042 | 0.209 | 6.7% | 76.8% |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 0.307 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parentheses next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Madison Bumgarner (1) – I don’t care that his enormous strand rate is propping up his ERA or that he’s $14K on DraftKings. He’s facing the Phillies in San Francisco and is the top pitcher plus the top expected value with the top projected strikeout rate on either site tonight.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (2) may not be all the way back to his form from last season, which had him as one of the top five pitchers in the National League, so a small drop off is still a very good pitcher and he should be more than enough to handle one of baseball’s worst offenses, though they’ve been bothersome in five games against the Mets over the last week.
Value Tier Three
Kenta Maeda (3) is purely my third favorite pitcher on FanDuel. While maybe not as good as his ERA, he’s an above average pitcher (or has been) in a marginal spot for $8.6K. I’d still call him potentially usable on DraftKings for nearly $11K, but they’re making it more difficult. He might be on par with lesser arms like Hellickson and Locke on a point-per-dollar basis there.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Julio Teheran is pitching well, but not as well as the surface results suggest. He’s in a decent spot tonight at home, where I have him as the fourth most usable pitcher on FanDuel for just less than $9K, but DraftKings went a little nuts and took him completely out of play for more than $12K tonight.
Jeremy Hellickson may not see as many strikeouts tonight, but should be able to keep the ball in the park, for the most part, better than he has. A cost just below $7K on FanDuel seems about right, though there might be some wiggle room for $1K less on DraftKings, where you’re only looking for 12 to 15 points for payoff.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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