Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, September 10th
I keep hearing how excited everyone in the daily fantasy community is for this weekend and I had no idea how popular this Saturday night baseball slate was. Now I’m feeling an immense amount of pressure not to disappoint everyone. I hear there’s even a big party in Nashville to celebrate it. While I have no idea why today’s slate would be any more popular than any of the ones over the last five months, I’ll do my best not to let everyone down.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -6.7 | 3.96 | 6.2 | 1.66 | 0.97 | 3.8 | 2.53 | MIL | 89 | 89 | 154 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | -9.8 | 4.7 | 5.25 | 1.72 | 1.07 | 4.37 | 3.65 | SFO | 84 | 98 | 55 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -0.3 | 4.2 | 6. | 1.24 | 0.96 | 4.37 | 4.73 | ATL | 82 | 87 | 102 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -8 | 4.44 | 5.27 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 4.47 | 4.31 | STL | 104 | 109 | 125 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | -8.3 | 4.72 | 5.43 | 1.36 | 0.86 | 4.65 | 5.56 | COL | 85 | 88 | 79 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.8 | 3.65 | 6.5 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 3.66 | 5.65 | ANA | 104 | 106 | 102 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 5.2 | 5.16 | 4.05 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 6.95 | TEX | 91 | 98 | 126 | |
| Drew Hutchison | PIT | -1 | 3.84 | 5.33 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 3.82 | CIN | 81 | 89 | 92 | |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 5.9 | 4.39 | 5.94 | 1.57 | 0.99 | 4.4 | 4.12 | CHW | 94 | 89 | 99 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | -5.1 | 4.7 | 5.35 | 0.65 | 1.03 | 5.01 | 5.95 | CLE | 84 | 99 | 116 |
| James Shields | CHW | 4.1 | 4.29 | 5.85 | 1.2 | 0.99 | 4.32 | 5.73 | KAN | 82 | 84 | 113 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.4 | 4.05 | 6.06 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 4.98 | WAS | 98 | 95 | 95 |
| John Gant | ATL | 1 | 3.82 | 4.64 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 2.88 | 3.53 | NYM | 93 | 94 | 118 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 5.3 | 3.72 | 6.77 | 1.39 | 1.07 | 3.61 | 4.41 | ARI | 94 | 86 | 66 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -1.1 | 3.83 | 5.47 | 1.4 | 0.86 | 3.96 | 4.15 | SDG | 94 | 81 | 68 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -4.5 | 4.02 | 6.15 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 4.2 | BAL | 97 | 109 | 99 | |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3 | 2.87 | 6.85 | 0.75 | 1.02 | 3.1 | 3.39 | PHI | 87 | 82 | 68 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.33 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 4.36 | 5.11 | MIN | 97 | 97 | 152 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1.6 | 3.19 | 5.85 | 1.39 | 1 | 2.91 | 2.73 | FLA | 88 | 95 | 77 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | -0.3 | 4.68 | 5.7 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 1.91 | PIT | 110 | 95 | 124 | |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.76 | 1.24 | 1 | 4.27 | 4.32 | LOS | 95 | 109 | 124 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.2 | 4.35 | 5.45 | 1.48 | 1.01 | 4.44 | 4.77 | DET | 106 | 104 | 106 |
Adam Wainwright has allowed seven of his 15 HRs over his last eight games. His strikeouts are up over league average in three of his last four starts and he’s not really allowing a ton of hard contact. Every time I mentally write him completely off, he makes me rethink it. Gone is the Ace of years past, but can he be still be a reasonably useful pitcher in the right spots? This probably would be one of those spots, at home against an offense that strikes out 25% of the time against RHP.
Jon Gant threw a couple of relief outings before striking out six of 23 Phillies in his first start since returning from the DL. He has a 16.2 K-BB% in 38 major league innings that’s a bit better than what he put up at AAA this season (14.3%), so I don’t know if the improved walk rate is real yet, but the strikeout rate seems supportable. He’s allowed a ton of hard contact so far (36.8%), but perhaps less so in this big park. His old team has a 36.4 Hard% and 19.0 HR/FB over the last week. They’re not losing games anymore, but they do strike out about 22% of the time on the road and vs RHP.
Jon Gray has struggled in three of his four home starts since the beginning of August and also in a road trip to Philly, but had seemed to have turned it around in two starts entering his last one, where he struck out just three Diamondbacks. We’re putting the third highest strikeout rate on the board (25%) in Petco today. It’s about as big a park upgrade as exists in baseball and maybe the top spot tonight. It’s definitely the top matchup with a usable pitcher tonight. The Padres strike out exactly a quarter of the time vs RHP.
Max Scherzer struck out five Braves in his last start and six or less in the three of his last five starts not in double digits. He’s allowed just two HRs over his last six starts though and has 12 double digit strikeout performances over his last 22 starts. If you’re looking for a quirky stat, he hasn’t struck out more than 11 in any of them since his 20 strikeout performance earlier in the season, his first in double digits this season. Even though his K% is down over five points over the last month, his 15.7 SwStr% is actually better than his season rate, which is already tops in baseball. Oh, and he has the Phillies (15.6 K-BB% vs RHP) at home tonight. It may not be as good at the matchups in Petco, but it’s the next best thing tonight.
Rich Hill has been absolutely fantastic when he’s actually had the opportunity to pitch this season. In 12 innings for the Dodgers, he hasn’t allowed a run, striking out 11 of 44 batters. He has just a 2.8 Hard-Soft% to cap off a 28.5 K%. The only thing area he hasn’t been dominant is in a league average walk rate (8.5%). The Marlins have Ozuna back, but it’s still a favorable spot. They have a 15.0 K-BB% vs LHP and 9.5 HR/FB at home, most of which is with Ozuna and Stanton in the lineup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Johnny Cueto (.289 – 77% – 8.7) would probably make our list today if this game were being played in San Francisco, where there’s a little more confidence in sustaining his low HR rate. The Diamondbacks surprisingly roughed him up at home two starts back and though they’re so bad against RHP (15.6 K-BB%) that it’s not even an unfavorable matchup even in this park, it’s pretty close to an overpay. There are more interesting pitchers in his price range.
Cole Hamels (.296 – 80.4% – 14.1) is going to do the opposite of whatever you think he’s going to do. After striking out 18 of 53 batters over 15.1 innings with just two walks and one run, it looked like he was ready to roll down the stretch and carry the Rangers to the post-season. He’s walked seven Mariners, striking out eight of 39 batters with 13 runs in six innings over his last two starts. The interesting thing might be that he hasn’t been stranding all his walks over his last two starts. This one is a bit easier because though it’s not a bad spot and a significant park upgrade, the Angels (16.8 K% vs LHP) lower his upside.
Bartolo Colon (.296 – 77.4% – 10.9) has the lowest SwStr% and 12th highest hard hit rate in baseball, though the latter has been falling. He’s still probably stranding too many runners for such a low strikeout rate. He’s likely fine here, but without enough upside for $7K. He’s struck out more than five just five times this year with a high of eight.
Tom Koehler (.300 – 74.2% – 9.2) shockingly pitched well in Cleveland after struggling in certain areas over his previous three starts. His performance has occasionally generated some intrigue over the second half of the season, but he’s facing a very dangerous team against RHP, despite how Jose Fernandez ran through them like a little league team last night. He’s not Jose Fernandez of course.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Drew Hutchison is a pitcher I didn’t even realize was in the Liriano trade. Several times it looked like he was figuring it out on the major league level, but it never happened. The Pirates seem to be able to occasionally fix broken pitchers, so this could be a great move for him. He had an 18.0 K-BB% for the Blue Jays at AAA this season and a 15.1 K-BB% in two major league spot starts, allowing two HRs in each though, before just an 8.1 K-BB% in 36 innings for the Pirates at AAA in August. He’s in a great spot against the Reds, who’s power is down on the road and should be especially in this park, but I don’t know that I’d want to place any faith in him yet.
Edinson Volquez has pitched better peripherally in three of his last four starts with five strikeouts, a single HR and four runs allowed in each with four total walks. Those were at home though, and he’s been worse on the road. You can’t pay much for him even in a nice spot in Chicago.
Jordan Zimmermann has just a 9.8 K-BB% this season and has pitched just 1.2 major league innings since the end of June. He allowed two HRs, facing 22 batters in his last rehab start on Monday. Baltimore (17.3 HR/FB vs RHP) is not the most optimal offense to make his return against, but at least it’s at home.
Jerad Eickhoff has struck out just 10 over his last three starts and has been an average pitcher at best away from home so far in his career.
Robert Stephenson struck out nine of 21 Mets with just one walk Monday afternoon. He did allow two HRs though to a team traveling for 1pm start after having ESPN move a Sunday home game to 8pm the night before. He can miss a few bats, but also has had a walk rate above 11% in every stint above A ball in his career.
James Shields has allowed 15 HRs over his last six starts. The Royals have just a 9.8 HR/FB vs RHP, so we’ll see what gives.
Archie Bradley should probably not even be this high on the pass list at home against the Giants, but what the hell has happened to that offense?
Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed seven runs over 21.2 innings, striking out 13 of his last 79 batters, but with just three walks over his last three starts. After further review though, he’s still Ubaldo and facing a good offense, but that may explain why there’s still several pitchers listed below him.
Chase Anderson has a 91.3 LOB% over the last month, has only completed six innings once since the beginning of June and faces one of the toughest offenses against RHP.
Daniel Wright makes his Angels debut. He struck out six of 64 major league batters in 13 innings for the Reds earlier in the season and while the 25 year-old former 10th rounder had a strikeout rate above 20% at every level heading into AAA this season, he has just a 16.8 K% in 83.2 innings there. In fact, I can’t find any record of him being traded to the Angels or pitching for him in the minors as his last appearance was for the Cincinnati organization on August 30th, tying a season high with eight strikeouts in AAA. The Rangers aren’t as good offensively as perceived and are not an unfavorable matchup in this park.
Christian Friedrich may likely prove that pitcher with ERA estimators above five should probably not be used in any situation.
Mike Clevinger lasted just eight batters in a spot start Monday. He almost made it through two innings, so it’s not like he got bombed. He did start two early games in August, going more than four innings three times last month, so I’m not sure what happened unless it was weather related. There are certainly no expectations of him getting much of a leash here. The Twins have a 24.3 HR/FB (or Dozier’s per fly ball?) over the last week.
Hector Santiago has the fifth highest hard hit rate in baseball (36.2%). Interestingly, four of them are lefties.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 5.7% | Home | 17.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 2.2% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.5% | 11.4% | Home | 20.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 4.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 16.3% | 3.7% | Road | 13.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 3.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.2% | 7.2% | Road | 17.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 2.5% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 16.6% | 9.5% | Home | 15.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 7.7% | Road | 23.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 9.4% | 3.1% | Home | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Drew Hutchison | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.8% | Home | 21.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.0% | 8.4% | Road | 18.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.8% | Home | 21.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.2% | Home | 22.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.7% | Road | 18.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| John Gant | Braves | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.2% | Home | 31.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 3.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.3% | Road | 21.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.0% | Road | 26.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 4.5% | Home | 17.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 5.1% | Home | 30.7% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 5.1% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 21.2% | 13.3% | Road | 21.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 7.8% | Road | 32.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 9.5% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.0% | Road | L14 Days | 42.9% | 4.8% | ||
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.7% | Home | 20.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.4% | 10.0% | Road | 20.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 5.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 24.4% | 10.1% | RH | 25.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.1% |
| Giants | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | RH | 17.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 8.4% | RH | 19.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.6% | 8.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.3% | 7.3% | LH | 22.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Home | 16.1% | 7.7% | LH | 16.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.5% | 6.4% | RH | 19.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.8% | 6.8% | RH | 21.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.3% | 7.9% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Road | 22.2% | 6.9% | LH | 20.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 11.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.1% | 6.3% | RH | 20.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Road | 22.4% | 7.4% | RH | 21.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.2% | 6.9% | RH | 22.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.6% |
| Padres | Home | 24.1% | 8.1% | RH | 25.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.9% | 7.0% | RH | 21.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.5% | 6.8% | RH | 22.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.4% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Home | 20.4% | 7.7% | RH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.3% | 7.4% | LH | 22.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.8% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.3% | 8.9% | RH | 21.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 27.2% | 9.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.3% | 8.0% | RH | 21.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 2016 | 31.1% | 9.7% | 12.8% | Home | 28.9% | 1.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 20.0% | 12.1% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.3% | 14.1% | 20.2% | 2016 | 36.8% | 15.4% | 18.4% | Home | 38.4% | 19.7% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 22.2% | 2.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 2016 | 35.0% | 10.9% | 18.4% | Road | 30.6% | 9.7% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 2016 | 37.1% | 15.5% | 20.5% | Road | 31.9% | 15.7% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 14.3% | 25.0% |
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 31.1% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 2016 | 32.2% | 10.7% | 13.1% | Home | 31.0% | 11.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 2016 | 30.8% | 14.1% | 9.8% | Road | 28.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 58.3% | 33.3% | 45.8% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 46.4% | 10.0% | 28.5% | 2016 | 46.4% | 10.0% | 28.5% | Home | 33.3% | 0.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Drew Hutchison | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.5% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 2016 | 38.9% | 28.6% | 30.6% | Home | 31.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 2016 | 31.5% | 12.8% | 11.3% | Road | 29.4% | 12.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 34.8% | 11.7% | 18.0% | 2016 | 36.2% | 13.3% | 18.3% | Home | 35.5% | 12.0% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 11.1% | 17.1% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.2% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 2016 | 34.8% | 18.5% | 20.2% | Home | 32.4% | 20.4% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 2016 | 31.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | Road | 35.8% | 10.9% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% |
| John Gant | Braves | L2 Years | 36.8% | 12.5% | 20.1% | 2016 | 36.8% | 12.5% | 20.1% | Home | 30.8% | 25.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 47.8% | 14.3% | 34.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 2016 | 27.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | Road | 31.2% | 11.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 2016 | 30.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | Road | 32.6% | 9.6% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 2016 | 26.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | Home | 29.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 2016 | 28.3% | 11.6% | 5.7% | Home | 26.7% | 10.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.6% | -5.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 2016 | 31.5% | 10.0% | 14.8% | Road | 30.4% | 16.7% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 4.1% | 0.3% | 2016 | 26.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | -5.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 38.5% | 18.2% | 17.3% | 2016 | 38.5% | 18.2% | 17.3% | Road | L14 Days | 54.6% | 40.0% | 45.5% | |||
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 2016 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 5.7% | Home | 31.9% | 8.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 2016 | 31.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | Road | 27.6% | 12.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 10.0% | 18.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 30.8% | 13.7% | 11.0% | RH | 32.7% | 15.3% | 13.8% | L7Days | 39.1% | 27.3% | 22.9% |
| Giants | Road | 31.6% | 10.5% | 11.9% | RH | 29.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Braves | Home | 29.9% | 6.7% | 12.1% | RH | 28.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.8% | 13.5% | 16.5% | RH | 34.6% | 15.5% | 17.3% | L7Days | 39.0% | 19.4% | 23.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.9% | 13.1% | 10.2% | LH | 32.4% | 14.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 16.9% | 16.4% |
| Angels | Home | 30.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | LH | 29.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.4% | 14.7% | 12.7% | RH | 30.9% | 14.3% | 11.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 15.2% | 19.5% |
| Reds | Road | 29.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | RH | 30.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 12.1% | 8.3% | RH | 29.1% | 11.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 31.4% | 10.9% | 13.1% |
| Indians | Road | 30.9% | 11.5% | 12.1% | LH | 29.4% | 10.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 29.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% |
| Royals | Road | 28.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | RH | 30.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.9% | 13.2% | 13.6% | RH | 32.6% | 12.4% | 14.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| Mets | Road | 33.0% | 14.4% | 16.7% | RH | 33.7% | 13.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 36.4% | 19.0% | 21.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.6% | 16.2% | 19.1% | RH | 32.5% | 11.8% | 15.2% | L7Days | 35.6% | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| Padres | Home | 30.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% | RH | 30.8% | 13.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 30.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.8% | 14.1% | 11.9% | RH | 33.1% | 17.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 34.4% | 10.1% | 6.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.8% | 12.2% | 11.6% | RH | 29.1% | 13.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% |
| Twins | Home | 32.4% | 12.7% | 15.1% | RH | 31.7% | 13.1% | 13.5% | L7Days | 32.2% | 24.3% | 17.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | LH | 31.9% | 11.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 31.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | RH | 30.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 35.2% | 11.3% | 19.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.2% | 13.0% | 17.7% | RH | 34.6% | 16.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 37.3% | 31.4% | 23.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 33.3% | 13.4% | 17.1% | RH | 32.7% | 14.1% | 15.8% | L7Days | 37.0% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 21.1% | 7.8% | 2.71 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 15.8% | 5.4% | 2.93 | 15.9% | 6.4% | 2.48 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 18.8% | 8.2% | 2.29 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.33 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 16.2% | 8.3% | 1.95 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 1.60 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 23.6% | 12.2% | 1.93 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 2.34 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 9.4% | 7.0% | 1.34 | |||
| Drew Hutchison | PIT | 22.6% | 11.2% | 2.02 | |||
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 16.8% | 8.6% | 1.95 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 19.3% | 8.7% | 2.22 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 1.65 |
| James Shields | CHW | 15.3% | 8.7% | 1.76 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 2.10 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.7% | 9.3% | 2.12 | 16.9% | 7.6% | 2.22 |
| John Gant | ATL | 23.4% | 9.7% | 2.41 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 2.20 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.46 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 2.40 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 25.0% | 11.9% | 2.10 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 1.91 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.6% | 7.6% | 1.92 | |||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 31.6% | 15.2% | 2.08 | 26.1% | 15.7% | 1.66 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.21 | 26.1% | 9.9% | 2.64 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.5% | 10.6% | 2.69 | 25.0% | 9.4% | 2.66 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 18.3% | 9.3% | 1.97 | 42.9% | 12.0% | 3.58 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 2.14 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.7% | 8.2% | 2.28 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.98 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.61 | 4.24 | -0.37 | 4.01 | -0.6 | 3.61 | -1 | 6.12 | 4.25 | -1.87 | 4.09 | -2.03 | 5.07 | -1.05 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 4.85 | 4.52 | -0.33 | 4.28 | -0.57 | 4.56 | -0.29 | 5 | 4.33 | -0.67 | 4.18 | -0.82 | 4.67 | -0.33 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.22 | 4.43 | 1.21 | 4.2 | 0.98 | 3.9 | 0.68 | 2.41 | 4.51 | 2.1 | 4.18 | 1.77 | 3.07 | 0.66 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 4.73 | 4.65 | -0.08 | 4.76 | 0.03 | 5.18 | 0.45 | 3.47 | 4.33 | 0.86 | 4.41 | 0.94 | 4.95 | 1.48 |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 4.99 | 5.04 | 0.05 | 5 | 0.01 | 4.66 | -0.33 | 5.79 | 5.48 | -0.31 | 5.42 | -0.37 | 5.55 | -0.24 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.25 | 4.02 | 0.77 | 3.89 | 0.64 | 4.02 | 0.77 | 5.08 | 3.92 | -1.16 | 3.66 | -1.42 | 3.61 | -1.47 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 7.62 | 5.16 | -2.46 | 5.28 | -2.34 | 4.69 | -2.93 | |||||||
| Drew Hutchison | PIT | 4.97 | 4.07 | -0.9 | 4.31 | -0.66 | 6.55 | 1.58 | |||||||
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 5.02 | 4.53 | -0.49 | 4.41 | -0.61 | 4.39 | -0.63 | 4.97 | 4.28 | -0.69 | 4.13 | -0.84 | 4.45 | -0.52 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 4.91 | 4.92 | 0.01 | 5.32 | 0.41 | 5.38 | 0.47 | 7.71 | 6.02 | -1.69 | 6.61 | -1.1 | 6.87 | -0.84 |
| James Shields | CHW | 6.07 | 5.25 | -0.82 | 5.32 | -0.75 | 6.22 | 0.15 | 9.82 | 5.31 | -4.51 | 5.83 | -3.99 | 9.88 | 0.06 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.86 | 4.19 | 0.33 | 4.28 | 0.42 | 4.03 | 0.17 | 4.25 | 4.99 | 0.74 | 5.16 | 0.91 | 4.74 | 0.49 |
| John Gant | ATL | 4.7 | 3.81 | -0.89 | 3.97 | -0.73 | 3.91 | -0.79 | 5.63 | 3.5 | -2.13 | 3.8 | -1.83 | 5.15 | -0.48 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.92 | 3.69 | 0.77 | 3.55 | 0.63 | 3.08 | 0.16 | 2.87 | 4.21 | 1.34 | 3.97 | 1.1 | 3.34 | 0.47 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.51 | 3.81 | -0.7 | 3.71 | -0.8 | 3.73 | -0.78 | 5.6 | 4.02 | -1.58 | 3.73 | -1.87 | 3.44 | -2.16 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 4.44 | 4.71 | 0.27 | 4.71 | 0.27 | 3.93 | -0.51 | |||||||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.88 | 3.04 | 0.16 | 3.38 | 0.5 | 3.18 | 0.3 | 3.24 | 3.64 | 0.4 | 4.05 | 0.81 | 2.55 | -0.69 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 5.3 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 4.85 | -0.45 | 4.44 | -0.86 | 3.24 | 4.19 | 0.95 | 4.23 | 0.99 | 2.61 | -0.63 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1.94 | 3.48 | 1.54 | 3.57 | 1.63 | 2.45 | 0.51 | 0 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 3.12 | 4.68 | 1.56 | 4.83 | 1.71 | 5.69 | 2.57 | 3.38 | 1.91 | -1.47 | 1.92 | -1.46 | 5.21 | 1.83 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.87 | 4.77 | 0.9 | 4.65 | 0.78 | 4.14 | 0.27 | 4.03 | 4.09 | 0.06 | 3.94 | -0.09 | 4.5 | 0.47 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.19 | 4.96 | -1.23 | 4.94 | -1.25 | 4.67 | -1.52 | 4.05 | 5.09 | 1.04 | 5.4 | 1.35 | 4.95 | 0.9 |
Adam Wainright has a 9.7 HR/FB that’s the second highest mark of career. He’s always done a great job of limiting the long ball in a power suppressing park and has never been in double digits a single year in his career. Consider his FIP potentially a bit more than his other estimators. His .327 BABIP is a career high, but so is his 25.3 LD% (for a full season), though he’s been above 23% each season since 2012. His 66.4 LOB% is a career low. Does he have some positive regression left or is this all a byproduct of age related decline? If we can even say both, perhaps he has not completely outlasted his usefulness.
Jon Gant has a .330 BABIP with an unfavorable profile and high LD rate. His 66.7 LOB% should positively regress. He’s had low strand rates throughout the minors, but that shouldn’t really be predictive with terrible defensive play at the lower levels.
Jon Gray has a 67.6 LOB%, which is way too low for his strikeout rate. His BABIP and HR/FB are perfectly in line with league averages, which actually makes them quite impressive coming out of Coors. This is basically the best news we could ask for in terms of future ERA expectations and potential regression.
Rich Hill has allowed just two HRs this season (2.7 HR/FB). There’s no level of weak contact generated in any park that’s going to make that sustainable.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 0.251 | 10.3% | 91.7% |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.322 | 0.315 | -0.007 | 0.228 | 6.7% | 87.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.308 | 0.296 | -0.012 | 0.236 | 10.9% | 92.5% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.298 | 0.290 | -0.008 | 0.236 | 6.8% | 85.8% |
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 0.301 | 0.301 | 0 | 0.193 | 15.7% | 90.9% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.294 | 0.296 | 0.002 | 0.2 | 4.0% | 85.4% |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 0.303 | 0.426 | 0.123 | 0.255 | 5.0% | 89.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | PIT | 0.300 | 0.281 | -0.019 | 0.25 | 21.4% | 89.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.293 | 0.314 | 0.021 | 0.19 | 8.3% | 89.0% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.323 | 0.266 | -0.057 | 0.153 | 14.7% | 85.5% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.299 | 0.307 | 0.008 | 0.217 | 7.4% | 89.5% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.304 | 0.292 | -0.012 | 0.215 | 13.9% | 88.8% |
| John Gant | ATL | 0.293 | 0.330 | 0.037 | 0.245 | 7.5% | 87.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 0.201 | 10.6% | 87.8% |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.312 | 0.298 | -0.014 | 0.242 | 8.3% | 87.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.301 | 0.305 | 0.004 | 0.18 | 15.6% | 89.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.286 | 0.243 | -0.043 | 0.177 | 12.5% | 78.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.288 | 0.288 | 0 | 0.234 | 10.0% | 84.3% |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.286 | 0.276 | -0.01 | 0.167 | 14.9% | 78.3% |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.290 | 0.229 | -0.061 | 0.269 | 22.7% | 88.7% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 0.229 | 11.0% | 88.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.302 | 0.336 | 0.034 | 0.198 | 7.1% | 88.5% |
Max Scherzer and the immaculate BABIP profile.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
You would think that it would be Scherzer against the Phillies and then forget about it, but there are actually three (maybe even four) great spot on this board, at least on point per dollar potential.
Value Tier One
Rich Hill (2) has been flat out dominant in limited opportunities on the mound this season. While there’s tremendous regression expected in his HR rate, that’s not necessarily tonight in a nice spot in Miami. He may not be as good as Scherzer, but probably has the next best upside and with the least down side risk for thousands less.
Value Tier Two
Jon Gant has done some quality work at the majors league level so far, at least in terms of strikeouts. The hard hit rate is concerning, even if less so in this park, while pitchers don’t generally improve their walk rate immediately upon hitting the majors, but there certainly appears to be some upside in this arm for less than $5.5K.
Max Scherzer (1) misses bats. That’s what he does. Lots of them. More than any other pitcher in baseball. He’s also in one of the top spots on the board at home tonight. He also costs $14.4K on Draftkings, where he may have to hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 points to truly pay off. That’s a full $3K more than any other pitcher on that site and $2K more than anybody else on Fanduel.
Value Tier Three
Jon Gray (3) hits the $10K mark on DraftKings today and hasn’t been pitching all that well over the last month, but most of those starts were at home. We’ve got one of the top strikeout rates tonight in Petco. A cost $2.4K lower could be a bargain on Fanduel if he gets the Win.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Adam Wainwright may be pitching a bit better than his recent ERA suggests. Brewers are one of the hotter offenses in baseball, but strike out a ton, potentially giving Waino some value around the average price mark in a favorable home park.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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