Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, April 20th
As always, we’re covering the night slate here and listing all pitchers despite the early start. The challenge is going to be in getting this up before the 12:30 first pitch, so in order to do so, we’ll skip the long winded intro today and get right into it. Although, I will mention that I forgot about Archie Bradley in yesterday’s multi-inning reliever diatribe.
We’re almost looking at a stars and scrubs pitching board on the night slate, led by several young elite or on their pathway to becoming so arms and then a few pitchers to target. Lines are fairly clearly drawn tonight between pitchers you might want and those you don’t.
We’re now up to date on all stats except for team defense, which I’m confident we’ll see next week.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 1.9 | 3.37 | 5.69 | 52.6% | 0.91 | 3.12 | 2.1 | NYM | 72 | 71 | 78 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.9 | 4.37 | 5.44 | 47.2% | 1.11 | 4.04 | 5.42 | KAN | 82 | 85 | 85 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -5.3 | 3.7 | 6.15 | 55.3% | 1.02 | 4.02 | 4.58 | MIL | 87 | 95 | 128 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 4.1 | 2.95 | 6.95 | 41.4% | 1.03 | 3.75 | 2.14 | TOR | 77 | 129 | 94 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.9 | 3.97 | 6.01 | 63.9% | 0.91 | 3.99 | 4.33 | ARI | 64 | 54 | 61 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | -5.1 | 4.23 | 5. | 40.6% | 0.96 | 3.81 | 5.47 | TAM | 127 | 119 | 115 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.9 | 4 | 5.85 | 38.0% | 1.11 | 3.58 | 4.07 | TEX | 98 | 55 | 48 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | -1.4 | 3.93 | 5.67 | 49.2% | 0.96 | 4.11 | 3.55 | DET | 110 | 108 | 116 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -5.8 | 4.31 | 6.22 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 4.03 | 3.26 | CLE | 103 | 128 | 151 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.3 | 3.76 | 5.77 | 47.9% | 0.93 | 3.26 | 2.74 | OAK | 117 | 80 | 110 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.2 | 3.48 | 5.74 | 50.6% | 0.94 | 2.57 | 2.11 | ANA | 58 | 97 | 45 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.2 | 4.46 | 6.07 | 33.4% | 1.03 | 4.57 | 3.69 | BOS | 93 | 115 | 113 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 6.5 | 3.97 | 5.7 | 40.4% | 0.94 | 4.56 | 4.46 | HOU | 114 | 132 | 133 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.3 | 2.91 | 6.16 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 2.39 | 2.03 | PHI | 79 | 93 | 74 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -6.1 | 4.14 | 5.42 | 51.1% | 0.91 | 4.34 | 5.28 | SDG | 89 | 66 | 68 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -0.9 | 4.74 | 6.16 | 42.3% | 1 | 4.83 | 4.05 | WAS | 138 | 118 | 119 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.4 | 4.31 | 5.71 | 47.4% | 1.02 | 4.37 | 4.74 | BAL | 119 | 120 | 104 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 1.1 | 2.96 | 5.94 | 42.2% | 1 | 3.11 | 2.98 | ATL | 108 | 98 | 107 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.4 | 4.22 | 5.98 | 44.2% | 1.04 | 3.86 | 2.81 | MIN | 105 | 101 | 111 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.2 | 4.2 | 5.85 | 47.9% | 1.02 | 4.11 | 4.07 | CIN | 89 | 134 | 79 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.2 | 4.19 | 5.71 | 46.9% | 1.02 | 3.91 | 4.09 | STL | 74 | 74 | 64 |
| Cesar Valdez | OAK | -8.3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.93 | SEA | 52 | 104 | 132 |
Aaron Nola seems to have fixed whatever had caused his downfall last year and has started even stronger than he had last season. He’s back to generating ground balls (63.3%) and misses (14.0 SwStr%) through two starts. He’s also throwing a couple of miles per hour harder. There was some talk of increasing his changeup usage, but it’s still at the same 8.4% as last season. Seems he hasn’t needed it. The additional speed on the fastball has given it three more inches of vertical movement. The Mets are going to hit their HRs, but will strike out frequently and not do much else.
Carlos Martinez has lost his ground balls (down to 40.9%), but has struck out double digit batters in two of his three starts instead. In the most recent one, he also walked eight, following a start where he only struck out three. Yeah, I don’t know. I really don’t. Strikeouts are good though. He’s throwing a slider now. About a quarter of the time. He never used to throw one at all. It’s replaced his curveball. He throws it the same speed he used to throw his curveball says Fangraphs. Brooks says it was always a slider. I still don’t know. I do know the Brewers strikeout a lot and strikeouts are still good.
Clayton Richard is a ground ball machine. He’s generating a 71 GB% this year after 65.1% last year. He’s generated an 80 GB% against LHBs since last year. Unfortunately, he probably won’t face many of those against Arizona. He’s still getting RHBs to pound it into the ground 66.7% of the time through three starts this year. He does not miss many bats though, so the upside is beyond limited, but he pitches in a great park and the Diamondbacks haven’t been much of a road team in recent years. We can’t get on them for starting slow against LHP as they’ve faced Kershaw and Bumgarner. We know they’re more competent.
Danny Duffy won’t retain a 93% strand rate for long and his walk rate is up again. The strikeout rate is down, but the swinging strike rate is still elite. His ground ball rate is actually way up, just above league average this year. Texas is not an easy place to pitch at all, but the Rangers have shown poorly in their first few attempts against LHP (29.3 K%) and have just a 24.5 Hard% and 6.5 HR/FB over the last week overall. I’ve long maintained that they’re merely an average offense in a park that greatly enhances it.
James Paxton is down a bit in velocity, but 95-97 still plays. He hasn’t allowed a run this year on a .163 BABIP, but the stuff has been amazing as well. Sustain a 24 K-BB% and 6.1 Hard-Soft% with a 15% popup rate and you might not give up many runs. His batted ball profile through three starts is, well, it’s so good there’s no word in my vocabulary to describe it (see BABIP & Statcast stats below). An 83.2 mph aEV without a single barrel met so far are beyond elite, even if he’s facing minor league teams. He’s not though, he hasn’t faced a team that resides outside the state of Texas yet, so these aren’t really cupcakes he’s dominating. He’s in a really nice spot in Oakland tonight. The A’s can show a bit of power against LHP, but are a bit banged up from the right side right now.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed neither a walk, nor a HR thus far, giving him a 27.4 K-BB%. Those things will come, but not many of them. The ball has been on the ground 57.7% of the time its been put in play with an 84.1 mph aEV. The biggest downside might be his defense. No matter what his managers or the broadcast team says about being more efficient with his pitches, this guy should never pitch to contact if he can avoid it. The Phillies might as well be the filets tonight.
Stephen Strasburg has gone seven innings exactly in each of his three starts with eight strikeouts in each of his last two against the Phillies. That’s consistency from a pitcher who has struggled to be such throughout his career. He’s not been bereft of hard contact though, with the highest rate of Barrels/PA (8.5%) on the night slate. Even though his strikeout rate is down about 25% from last year, his SwStr%, which has never really been elite, is right where it’s always been. This may just be in my head, but it seems he always struggles, from at least a fantasy point accumulation standpoint, against Atlanta.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Wade Miley (.208 – 87.3% – 12.5) looks even worse when you realize he’s the only severely regression bound strikeout rate on the board today (either slate).
Scott Feldman (.317 – 89.1% – 11.8) has actually missed more bats than expected this year and managed contact well so far (23.3 Hard%), but a double digit walk rate in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball (though more run neutral) for a pitcher with a slight reverse platoon split for his career (.330 wOBA vs RHBs) might not go over well against Baltimore.
Patrick Corbin (.311 – 74.8% – 4.8) has walked as many as he’s struck out and three of his eight runs have been unearned. At a low cost, he may be more popular than he should be on DraftKings. I’d rather go with the other pitcher in this matchup, who actually has a higher SwStr% and keeps the ball on the ground almost literally all the time.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Zach Davies wasn’t terrible last year. I’m not sure what’s happened here. He was at least a bit better in his last start and is facing a struggling, banged up offense right now. His aEV is just 83.2 mph and he has generated 28.8% soft contact, but he’s not missing bats and has just a 4.2 K-BB%. His secondary stuff has graded poorly so far, but that’s still less than 100 pitches.
Cesar Valdez is a 32 year old who threw 20 major league innings in 2010. That’s the extent of his major league career. He spent 2012 through 2015 in the Mexican League (AAA equivalent?). The extent of my research on him was to ensure that he was the guy he appeared to be. It probably does need to be mentioned that he had an 18.2 K-BB% at AAA (Astros) in 138 innings last year, but those were split between pen and rotation. He has struck out 12 of 38 batters in two starts for Oakland’s AAA team this year and is nearly minimum priced on DraftKings. Weirder things have happened for pitchers making their major league debut, which is essentially the position he’s in tonight.
R.A. Dickey hasn’t been terrible thus far, but has allowed a 34.2 Hard% and has little upside at this point in his career against a good offense. The Nationals have just a team-wide 14.1 K% over the last week.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.9% | 5.9% | Road | 23.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.2% | Home | 21.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 13.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.6% | Road | 23.3% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 17.0% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 5.0% | Road | 24.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 6.3% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 12.9% | 7.9% | Home | 14.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.7% | Road | 23.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.5% | Road | 29.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 7.6% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.9% | Home | 20.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 2.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.3% | Home | 19.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.5% | Road | 22.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 5.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.6% | Home | 31.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 2.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.4% | Home | 24.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.7% | Road | 17.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.2% | Home | 30.3% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.9% | Road | 17.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.4% | Home | 17.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 8.8% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.6% | Home | 16.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 6.3% | Road | 30.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 9.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.1% | Road | 21.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 4.2% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.4% | Road | 17.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 15.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.8% | Home | 20.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Cesar Valdez | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 21.1% | 9.2% | RH | 23.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Road | 23.1% | 7.6% | RH | 22.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 31.9% | 8.7% | RH | 25.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.9% | 6.9% | LH | 22.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.7% | 8.7% | LH | 22.1% | 5.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.9% |
| Rays | Home | 23.9% | 11.4% | LH | 30.4% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.6% | 9.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.6% | 8.3% | LH | 29.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.3% | 11.4% | RH | 25.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.3% |
| Indians | Road | 16.8% | 8.1% | RH | 20.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 8.5% | LH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Road | 23.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.6% | 8.4% | RH | 16.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.3% |
| Astros | Home | 18.4% | 7.6% | RH | 18.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.8% | 7.9% | RH | 24.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.2% |
| Padres | Home | 16.5% | 9.7% | LH | 20.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 10.9% | RH | 19.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 14.1% | 8.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 5.6% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.6% | 6.2% |
| Braves | Home | 18.3% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 20.4% | 13.1% | RH | 20.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.9% |
| Reds | Home | 18.0% | 7.4% | LH | 16.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.0% | 5.8% | RH | 22.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 23.5% | 8.1% | RH | 21.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 2017 | 26.7% | 0.0% | 6.7% | Road | 28.6% | 2.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 12.1% | 17.1% | 2017 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 27.7% | Home | 34.0% | 11.9% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 0.0% | 27.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 2017 | 31.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | Road | 32.3% | 4.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 37.8% | 5.0% | 24.5% | Road | 30.7% | 5.1% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 5.0% | 24.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 26.0% | 15.3% | 5.4% | 2017 | 28.6% | 44.4% | 11.1% | Home | 28.1% | 10.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 57.1% | 2.4% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.4% | 15.9% | 2017 | 42.1% | 0.0% | 26.3% | Road | 33.3% | 5.1% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 26.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 2017 | 28.9% | 9.1% | 15.4% | Road | 33.2% | 14.3% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 8.3% | 15.4% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 28.3% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 10.0% | Home | 24.1% | 9.8% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 21.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | Home | 26.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -2.7% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.1% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 2017 | 24.5% | 0.0% | 6.1% | Road | 32.9% | 8.5% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2017 | 22.5% | 40.0% | -4.0% | Home | 20.6% | 20.6% | -3.3% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 44.4% | 9.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 2017 | 37.3% | 13.0% | 25.5% | Home | 30.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 2017 | 31.0% | 22.2% | 11.9% | Road | 31.6% | 10.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 15.4% | 10.4% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 2017 | 28.3% | 0.0% | 13.2% | Home | 27.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 8.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.4% | 15.0% | 19.8% | 2017 | 27.4% | 4.8% | 12.9% | Road | 33.6% | 15.9% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 6.3% | 9.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 26.8% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 2017 | 34.2% | 22.2% | 17.1% | Home | 31.7% | 16.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 22.2% | 17.1% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 23.3% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 2017 | 23.3% | 11.8% | 9.3% | Home | 23.8% | 10.3% | 0.7% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2017 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | Road | 22.3% | 5.2% | -3.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 10.0% | -8.8% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 2017 | 30.3% | 30.0% | 15.1% | Road | 30.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 30.0% | 15.1% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 2017 | 32.0% | 12.5% | 24.0% | Road | 34.2% | 13.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 12.5% | 24.0% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | Home | 34.7% | 13.4% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 13.3% | 6.1% |
| Cesar Valdez | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 28.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | RH | 29.5% | 10.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 32.8% | 9.8% | 13.6% |
| Royals | Road | 27.5% | 21.3% | 0.7% | RH | 28.4% | 14.0% | 4.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 39.2% | 21.3% | 17.6% | RH | 31.6% | 22.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 24.6% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.8% | 8.7% | 10.6% | LH | 32.1% | 17.2% | 17.3% | L7Days | 32.7% | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.8% | 8.3% | 13.8% | LH | 35.9% | 7.0% | 21.4% | L7Days | 27.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% |
| Rays | Home | 33.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | LH | 37.6% | 13.8% | 10.9% | L7Days | 39.9% | 13.8% | 20.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 37.7% | 23.4% | 21.0% | LH | 24.6% | 14.8% | 0.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 37.7% | 15.3% | 20.9% | RH | 45.5% | 13.4% | 30.5% | L7Days | 44.1% | 16.7% | 27.3% |
| Indians | Road | 40.1% | 11.0% | 25.6% | RH | 37.9% | 15.1% | 22.7% | L7Days | 35.2% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 29.4% | 17.7% | 9.8% | LH | 30.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 18.8% | 9.8% |
| Angels | Road | 28.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | RH | 28.0% | 13.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 27.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 44.2% | 3.6% | 27.2% | RH | 42.0% | 5.2% | 23.8% | L7Days | 37.4% | 5.4% | 20.2% |
| Astros | Home | 27.9% | 17.1% | 5.6% | RH | 30.0% | 14.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 32.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.1% | 12.9% | 6.6% | RH | 27.3% | 13.8% | 4.7% | L7Days | 30.1% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.2% | 10.9% | 0.8% | LH | 29.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | 3.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 13.0% | 17.0% | RH | 29.2% | 12.1% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.9% | 18.4% | 19.4% | RH | 30.7% | 16.9% | 12.2% | L7Days | 37.2% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| Braves | Home | 32.1% | 17.5% | 15.4% | RH | 31.1% | 12.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 32.1% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| Twins | Home | 31.4% | 5.3% | 12.1% | RH | 35.1% | 8.8% | 18.6% | L7Days | 33.9% | 8.9% | 14.3% |
| Reds | Home | 28.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | LH | 30.1% | 27.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 30.5% | 13.8% | 15.6% | RH | 24.8% | 12.8% | 5.8% | L7Days | 31.4% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.9% | 7.8% | -2.8% | RH | 25.6% | 9.8% | 4.5% | L7Days | 28.9% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 28.9% | 14.0% | 2.06 | 28.9% | 14.0% | 2.06 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.85 | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.85 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 30.0% | 13.8% | 2.17 | 30.0% | 13.8% | 2.17 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.7% | 14.9% | 2.46 | 36.7% | 14.9% | 2.46 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 12.5% | 6.6% | 1.89 | 12.5% | 6.6% | 1.89 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 13.5% | 7.6% | 1.78 | 13.5% | 7.6% | 1.78 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 22.1% | 14.1% | 1.57 | 22.1% | 14.1% | 1.57 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 13.9% | 9.2% | 1.51 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 1.51 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 29.3% | 14.8% | 1.98 | 29.3% | 14.8% | 1.98 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 30.3% | 12.3% | 2.46 | 30.3% | 12.3% | 2.46 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 22.4% | 12.1% | 1.85 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 1.85 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 18.8% | 10.4% | 1.81 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 1.81 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 27.4% | 15.2% | 1.80 | 27.4% | 15.2% | 1.80 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 9.1% | 6.2% | 1.47 | 9.1% | 6.2% | 1.47 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 17.5% | 9.6% | 1.82 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 1.82 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.39 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.39 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.19 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.19 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.1% | 10.3% | 2.63 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 2.63 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 28.3% | 7.0% | 4.04 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 4.04 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.5% | 7.0% | 2.21 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 2.21 |
| Cesar Valdez | OAK |
Over one-third of the night slate pitchers have a SwStr above 13.5%.
Wade Miley is the single pitcher whose K% far exceeds the projection of his SwStr% today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.27 | 2.1 | -1.17 | 1.95 | -1.32 | 1.09 | -2.18 | 2.58 | -0.69 | 3.27 | 2.1 | -1.17 | 1.95 | -1.32 | 1.09 | -2.18 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 5.06 | 5.4 | 0.34 | 5.03 | -0.03 | 3.84 | -1.22 | 0.99 | -4.07 | 5.06 | 5.42 | 0.36 | 5.03 | -0.03 | 3.84 | -1.22 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.57 | 3.33 | -0.24 | 3.49 | -0.08 | 2.79 | -0.78 | 0.60 | -2.97 | 3.57 | 3.34 | -0.23 | 3.49 | -0.08 | 2.79 | -0.78 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.25 | 2.14 | 0.89 | 2.38 | 1.13 | 1.52 | 0.27 | 0.97 | -0.28 | 1.25 | 2.14 | 0.89 | 2.38 | 1.13 | 1.52 | 0.27 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 3.6 | 3.64 | 0.04 | 3.67 | 0.07 | 5.55 | 1.95 | 1.33 | -2.27 | 3.6 | 3.64 | 0.04 | 3.67 | 0.07 | 5.55 | 1.95 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.19 | 5.47 | 3.28 | 5.01 | 2.82 | 3.47 | 1.28 | 2.25 | 0.06 | 2.19 | 5.47 | 3.28 | 5.01 | 2.82 | 3.47 | 1.28 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 1.8 | 3.95 | 2.15 | 4.15 | 2.35 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.81 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 3.95 | 2.15 | 4.15 | 2.35 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.72 | 3.55 | -0.17 | 3.82 | 0.1 | 4.87 | 1.15 | 1.72 | -2.00 | 3.72 | 3.55 | -0.17 | 3.82 | 0.1 | 4.87 | 1.15 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.41 | 3.84 | 3.43 | 3.73 | 3.32 | 2.81 | 2.4 | 1.15 | 0.74 | 0.41 | 3.84 | 3.43 | 3.73 | 3.32 | 2.81 | 2.4 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 0 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.67 | 2.23 | -2.44 | 1.86 | -2.81 | 3.94 | -0.73 | 0.85 | -3.82 | 4.67 | 2.23 | -2.44 | 1.86 | -2.81 | 3.94 | -0.73 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.5 | 3.96 | 0.46 | 4.37 | 0.87 | 4.51 | 1.01 | 4.62 | 1.12 | 3.5 | 3.96 | 0.46 | 4.37 | 0.87 | 4.51 | 1.01 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 6.14 | 4.59 | -1.55 | 5.05 | -1.09 | 6.65 | 0.51 | 2.28 | -3.86 | 6.14 | 4.6 | -1.54 | 5.05 | -1.09 | 6.65 | 0.51 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.95 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 1.97 | 1.02 | 0.8 | -0.15 | 1.46 | 0.51 | 0.95 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 1.97 | 1.02 | 0.8 | -0.15 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 2.81 | 5.45 | 2.64 | 5.61 | 2.8 | 4.34 | 1.53 | 8.95 | 6.14 | 2.81 | 5.45 | 2.64 | 5.61 | 2.8 | 4.34 | 1.53 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 3.86 | 4.03 | 0.17 | 3.95 | 0.09 | 4.96 | 1.1 | 13.96 | 10.10 | 3.86 | 4.05 | 0.19 | 3.95 | 0.09 | 4.96 | 1.1 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 2.87 | 4.31 | 1.44 | 4.24 | 1.37 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 7.72 | 4.85 | 2.87 | 4.32 | 1.45 | 4.24 | 1.37 | 4.18 | 1.31 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3 | 3.14 | 0.14 | 3.09 | 0.09 | 2.43 | -0.57 | 2.27 | -0.73 | 3 | 3.14 | 0.14 | 3.09 | 0.09 | 2.43 | -0.57 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 8.44 | 2.8 | -5.64 | 2.51 | -5.93 | 4.68 | -3.76 | 2.14 | -6.30 | 8.44 | 2.81 | -5.63 | 2.51 | -5.93 | 4.68 | -3.76 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 2.45 | 4.07 | 1.62 | 3.87 | 1.42 | 3.9 | 1.45 | 1.26 | -1.19 | 2.45 | 4.07 | 1.62 | 3.87 | 1.42 | 3.9 | 1.45 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 8.79 | 5.06 | -3.73 | 5.25 | -3.54 | 4.86 | -3.93 | 8.52 | -0.27 | 8.79 | 5.07 | -3.72 | 5.25 | -3.54 | 4.86 | -3.93 |
| Cesar Valdez | OAK |
DRA really hates knuckleballs?
As dominant as James Paxton has been, Aaron Nola actually has lower estimators and Noah Syndergaard is lower still. We could be looking.
There are only a few pitchers on the night slate separated by a couple of runs or more from their estimators as we start to close some gaps.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.285 | 0.433 | 0.148 | 63.3% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 78.9% | 87.9 | 3.40% | 2.20% | 29 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.290 | 0.278 | -0.012 | 61.1% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 91.3% | ||||
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.308 | 0.341 | 0.033 | 40.9% | 0.227 | 18.8% | 84.4% | 87.1 | 2.30% | 1.30% | 43 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.297 | 0.227 | -0.07 | 33.3% | 0.222 | 5.0% | 74.3% | 89.4 | 4.50% | 2.50% | 44 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.253 | 0.254 | 0.001 | 71.0% | 0.145 | 0.0% | 89.4% | 88 | 5.50% | 3.80% | 55 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.313 | 0.237 | -0.076 | 47.4% | 0.211 | 16.7% | 91.2% | 87.5 | 10.50% | 7.70% | 38 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.273 | 0.240 | -0.033 | 44.2% | 0.135 | 9.1% | 79.6% | 89.2 | 4.10% | 2.60% | 49 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.280 | 0.179 | -0.101 | 53.3% | 0.133 | 0.0% | 87.2% | 88.7 | 13.30% | 11.10% | 30 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.233 | 0.074 | -0.159 | 48.1% | 0.13 | 14.3% | 89.2% | 82.7 | 1.90% | 1.30% | 53 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.302 | 0.163 | -0.139 | 39.6% | 0.188 | 15.0% | 77.9% | 83.2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.265 | 0.333 | 0.068 | 52.2% | 0.261 | 0.0% | 91.3% | 88.3 | 11.40% | 6.60% | 44 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.304 | 0.271 | -0.033 | 42.9% | 0.102 | 0.0% | 77.0% | 90.9 | 4.10% | 2.60% | 49 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.281 | 0.256 | -0.025 | 42.9% | 0.143 | 11.1% | 85.7% | 89.9 | 10.00% | 6.30% | 40 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.305 | 0.302 | -0.003 | 57.7% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 93.8% | 84.1 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 52 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.293 | 0.311 | 0.018 | 47.5% | 0.18 | 9.5% | 91.6% | 88.8 | 5.10% | 3.90% | 59 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.283 | 0.359 | 0.076 | 51.2% | 0.268 | 22.2% | 86.0% | 87.7 | 2.90% | 1.80% | 35 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.268 | 0.317 | 0.049 | 33.3% | 0.262 | 0.0% | 85.6% | 88.2 | 12.20% | 7.60% | 41 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.291 | 0.263 | -0.028 | 56.9% | 0.138 | 5.9% | 87.0% | 90.8 | 12.10% | 8.50% | 58 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.338 | 0.400 | 0.062 | 36.4% | 0.333 | 20.0% | 85.5% | 90.2 | 12.90% | 8.30% | 31 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.323 | 0.208 | -0.115 | 44.0% | 0.24 | 12.5% | 95.4% | 88.9 | 4.00% | 2.20% | 25 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.303 | 0.380 | 0.077 | 40.0% | 0.2 | 15.0% | 89.4% | 83.2 | 6.30% | 4.20% | 48 |
| Cesar Valdez | OAK | 0.248 |
James Paxton has an amazing profile so far, something that doesn’t equate into most of his estimators. So although those fall behind Nola and Thor, he’s right there with them. He’s the only pitcher to receive a positive shade in every metric right of the ground ball rate above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (2) was pretty great for a couple of months last season and then he was horrible even though he was still generating strikeouts and ground balls at an above average rate. To solve the problem, apparently he decided to just throw harder, strike out more batters, and generate more ground balls. He probably has the ability to be a $10K pitcher at some point, which would make him a great value at much less.
Value Tier Two
Noah Syndergaard (1) is easily the top pitcher on the board tonight despite the way Nola and Paxton have been establishing themselves this year. He’s not entirely without risk, even against the Phillies though because he did leave two of his first three starts with finger maladies (blister, torn nail), but the Mets have insisted it a moot point each time. Thor doesn’t apparently even need all of the fingers on his throwing hand to hammer opposing offenses.
Value Tier Three
James Paxton (4) is starting to get a bit expensive and I’m not sure I expect him to sustain this pace, but he’s become a really good pitcher in a really nice matchup tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Stephen Strasburg (3) is certainly not off the board, but seems the less attractive of the two elitely priced pitchers tonight. I want to make a statement about how it should pertain to his potential ownership percentage tonight, but I’ve been fairly amiss about these musing so far.
Clayton Richard has just a 3.8 K-BB%, far from the type of pitcher normally recommended here. It’s a short slate though and on DraftKings, you need two pitchers. He’s the second lowest priced guy and probably the only one on the bottom part of the board I’d look at. It’s just so hard to elevate the ball against him. A 70% ground ball rate this year is like 75% two years ago.
Carlos Martinez has had a strange journey to start the season, including 19 of 30 batters either walking or striking out in his last start after only four such in his previous start. He’s also not generating ground balls anymore. Ground balls are down all around, but not this much. The Brewers are such a high upside daily fantasy matchup with all those strikeouts, but those walks and fly balls are concerning at this price.
Danny Duffy has a SwStr% that projects for more strikeouts going forward. The park is more concerning than the offense tonight. He costs just $8.2K on DraftKings, where he should get a lot of attention as one of lowest priced usable pitchers.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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