Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, August 10th
I guess it’s a good thing that you miss most of the action on a day when two of your top three pitchers walk five batters each. Wednesday was a tough slate, but that was unexpected. A ten game Thursday night slate is a bit larger than usual and we lose some good young pitchers to the afternoon games, even though there are just two. There are still quite a few studs and lots of strikeouts on the main board with a lot of lower cost arms who just miss the list here, but are not mandatory omissions.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | ARI | -5.4 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 33.3% | 1.13 | 4.83 | 4.73 | LOS | 103 | 116 | 123 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.5 | 4.83 | 4.88 | 39.0% | 0.96 | 4.76 | 4.18 | CLE | 102 | 104 | 41 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -5.5 | 4 | 5.06 | 40.2% | 0.98 | 4.43 | 4.19 | CHW | 92 | 86 | 91 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.1 | 3.93 | 6. | 44.8% | 0.98 | 3.94 | 2.42 | HOU | 133 | 124 | 135 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -11.2 | 4.61 | 6. | 41.7% | 0.93 | 4.48 | 5.68 | BAL | 89 | 99 | 111 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.9 | 4.53 | 5.78 | 32.6% | 1.01 | 4.73 | 4.39 | WAS | 116 | 107 | 112 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.3 | 3.76 | 5.61 | 44.0% | 0.96 | 3.7 | 2.75 | TAM | 105 | 106 | 44 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -5.4 | 3.68 | 5.26 | 37.9% | 1.02 | 4.21 | 4.03 | CIN | 99 | 98 | 92 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 1.7 | 4.18 | 5. | 63.2% | 0.98 | 5.49 | 5.43 | PIT | 88 | 87 | 83 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.4 | 4.02 | 5.93 | 45.3% | 0.98 | 3.98 | 4.28 | DET | 115 | 94 | 74 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.6 | 3.47 | 6.25 | 45.7% | 0.96 | 3.43 | 2.67 | PHI | 98 | 88 | 91 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 7.4 | 3.5 | 5.79 | 47.4% | 0.89 | 3.3 | 2.08 | ANA | 85 | 84 | 95 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 7.2 | 4.35 | 5.5 | 40.2% | 0.98 | 4.77 | 4.19 | STL | 103 | 98 | 139 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.2 | 4.76 | 5.67 | 51.0% | 1.02 | 4.95 | 4.61 | MIL | 88 | 91 | 61 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -1.5 | 4.71 | 5.46 | 45.6% | 0.98 | 4.69 | 6.56 | KAN | 86 | 90 | 92 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.3 | 4.05 | 6.01 | 58.9% | 1.02 | 4.26 | 4.68 | SDG | 81 | 88 | 98 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.9 | 4.48 | 5.94 | 32.3% | 1.03 | 4.72 | 5.12 | NYY | 100 | 113 | 100 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 2.4 | 4.14 | 5.66 | 54.0% | 1.03 | 3.73 | 4.51 | TOR | 94 | 92 | 111 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1 | 4.4 | 5.99 | 47.9% | 1.01 | 4.07 | 4.89 | MIA | 100 | 96 | 61 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 2 | 4.3 | 5.19 | 41.8% | 0.89 | 4.12 | 5.28 | SEA | 108 | 100 | 92 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 2.2 | 3.96 | 5.32 | 37.7% | 0.96 | 3.59 | 5.95 | NYM | 107 | 100 | 49 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -5.1 | 4.41 | 5.5 | 48.5% | 0.93 | 4.36 | 4.29 | OAK | 110 | 88 | 110 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 2.8 | 3.48 | 6.1 | 40.4% | 1.13 | 3.27 | 3.13 | ARI | 107 | 100 | 91 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -1.6 | 4.38 | 5.76 | 48.1% | 1.02 | 4 | 4.54 | MIN | 87 | 98 | 111 |
Brad Peacock got through six innings last time out, longer than most outings this year, but allowed three HRs and seven runs to the Blue Jays. Though he’s retained a 28.4 K% over the last month, he’s done so with a SwStr rate (10.4%) not much above average, pulling some of the shine off of his star as one of 2017’s breakout arms. Though he’s still allowed just 29.8% 95+ mph EV on the year, 40.5% of his contact has been hard over his last three outings with just 32.4% of it on the ground. He seems to be throwing the same pitches at the same frequencies at the same speed, which is all the research there really is time for right now. The good news is that his walk rate is down a bit (8.9% over this span) and his season overall has been a tremendous success coming from no expectations of even a major league job. He’s also in a very favorable spot against the White Sox (16.4 K-BB% vs RHP, 6.7 Hard-Soft% at home, 8.5 HR/FB over the last week).
Danny Salazar has struck out 28 of 71 batters since returning from the DL, walking just five (though three in his last start). He’s allowed hard contact on just 26.3% of batted balls over this span. He happens to be in one of the highest strikeout spots in the league in Tampa Bay tonight (25 K% at home and vs RHP, 27.8 K% over the last week). The Rays have a 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 6.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Jacob deGrom lasted fewer than six innings for the first time in nearly two months last time out, but still struck out eight Dodgers in five innings. Over this nearly two month span (10 starts), he has maintained a 21.7 K-BB%, sacrificing a few strikeouts for improved control and a bit less hard contact. He’s in a strong spot in Philadelphia, against an offense with a 15.2 K-BB% against RHP and 7.3 HR/FB over the last week.
James Paxton has struck out at least seven in six straight and eight of nine with at least six innings in eight straight starts. His 1.7% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board with 29.9% 95+ mph EV. His 13.1 SwStr% for the season is second on the board, behind only deGrom. He may be in the top spot on the board. The Angels have well below average both on the road (11.1 HR/FB) and vs LHP (8.8 HR/FB) and have just a 7.6 HR/FB over the last week. While he’s generally had a reverse split for his career, that’s not the case this year only because he’s completely dominated LHBs too. His wOBA against RHBs has actually decreased this year (.266) too.
Sonny Gray was betrayed by his defense in his first Yankee start, making him feel right at home. He otherwise pitched very well, striking out six of 27 Indians. His contact management has been exceptional over his last seven starts (60.3 GB%, -1.6 Hard-Soft%). In fact, he has just one start below a 50% ground ball rate during this stretch and no games above a 25% hard hit rate. While the matchup against Toronto is incredibly marginal, it’s interesting to see their 17.8 HR/FB over the last week with a -5.2 Hard-Soft%.
Yu Darvish bounced back from the worst start in the history of pitching (10 ER – 3.2 IP) with 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings in his Dodger debut. He’s now sandwiched that terrible start with 22 strikeouts. Considering the last time he had more than six strikeouts before that was June 23rd, you’re not getting consistency from him this year, but he has occasionally popped one off. He also upgrades in park and pitch framing with this trade, although tonight is not an upgrade at all from Texas with a date in Arizona.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Lance Lynn (.221 – 82.9% – 15.5) has been a decent contact manager despite the HR rate (29.4% 95+ mph EV) and could be effective at home against an offense without too many dangerous LHBs, but beware that strikeouts have dropped over the last month. In fact, he’s struck out more than five just once since June and no more than six.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Carlos Rodon struck out nine or more for the fourth time in seven starts and the third straight one last time out. He’s also seemed to quell his control issues over his past two starts with a total of just two walks after walking at least three in each of his previous five. The concern here is that he’s struck out four or fewer in his other three starts and his SwStr% struggles to support such a high K%. RHBs have a career .345 wOBA against him and he’s facing Houston.
Tanner Roark looks like he’s been missing tons of bats over the last month and has had a double digit SwStr% in five straight, but more than five strikeouts in just two of those games and just three of his last 11 starts. He could put up a strong performance in a marginal and maybe even slightly favorable spot against the Marlins, but doesn’t come close to matching up with the top arms on this slate.
Vince Velasquez is a high upside arm, though he has just a 21.8 K% this season and six walks in his last start pushed his walk rate in to double digits. His 89 mph aEV and 42% 95+ mph EV are both second worst on the slate. What he does have going for him tonight is a reasonable price tag and a Mets offense that just traded off one of their top hitters this year and have a 30.2 K% over the last week.
Tyler Skaggs was held to just 83 pitches in his first start since April, allowing three runs in four innings with just three strikeouts and two walks (19 BF). He did have a -21.4 Hard-Soft% though. While he has a 15.0 K-BB% and 1.0 Hard-Soft% through six starts this season, his three AAA rehab starts wrought a 2.1 K-BB%. That said, he’s fairly cheap in a reasonable spot in Seattle with some upside beyond his cost for those looking for an affordable arm to pair with an expensive pitcher.
Jason Hammel hasn’t been bad recently and should be striking out a few more batters, but faces the hottest offense on the board and is probably league average at best.
Dan Straily generates a lot of weak contact in the air (28.3% 95+ mph EV), which accounts for his .275 BABIP, but has struck out more than four in just two of his last eight starts and have more than five in just eight of 23 starts this year. The Nationals are one of the tougher matchups on the board, including sixth best against fly ball pitchers (110 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference).
Wade Miley has increased his SwStr% over the last month, but without a lot of strikeouts and a 40 GB% with a 38.8% hard hit rate.
Zach Davies has gone seven innings in four straight, three of them without an earned run and while that certainly improves his stock somewhat, digging a little bit deeper, we find just a 6.6 SwStr% over this four start stretch with a .220 BABIP, 89 LOB% and 3.7 HF/FB. His 19.3 Hard% is certainly encouraging though.
Blake Snell
Anthony Banda made the back end of the Top 100 Fangraphs prospects (#88) with a 50 FV grade this year. Evaluators suggested he had the stuff to dominate and dominate he did in San Francisco last time out, striking out seven of 24 in six innings of one run ball. He’s struck out 12 of 47 through two starts with four walks (all in his last start), but just a 33.3 GB% and 36.7% 95+ mph EV despite an 83.2 mph aEV. The contact is liable to get him into trouble in his second home start. The Dodgers have an 11.1 BB% and 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP and 30.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. It’s the worst matchup on the board.
Marco Estrada has had back-to-back starts of seven innings with a total of three walks and 12 Ks (54 batters faced) after a seven start stretch with a walk rate just as high as his strikeout rate. While he has just a 20.5 GB% over these last two starts, he also has just a 10.3 Hard%. In his better years, he’s excelled at weak contact in the air and an above average strikeout rate, but has a lot to atone for this year. That said, he’s in a dangerous spot hosting the Yankees (16.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Dietrich Enns will start in place of Kyle Gibson for the Twins today because at least one team has to change their pitcher after my work is done every day. To make matters worse, he’s left-handed. The 26 year old came over from the Yankees for Jaime Garcia last week. He had a 17.2 K-BB% in seven AAA starts for the Yankees this season, but just a 9.4% one in 65 AAA innings last season. He has shown above average strikeout rates at most stops of the minors though and is in one of the highest strikeout spots against the Brewers tonight (26.6% both on the road and vs LHP). They have an 18.2 HR/FB on the road and 15.3 HR/FB vs LHP (15.5 Hard-Soft%). He doesn’t even appear to be available on either site yet.
Chris Smith
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.5% | Home | 21.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 16.7% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.4% | 12.7% | Home | 23.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.1% | Road | 25.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 24.3% | 8.6% | Home | 24.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 3.6% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.3% | 10.8% | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 11.4% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.2% | Road | 21.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 27.6% | 9.9% | Road | 29.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.2% | Road | 29.7% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 11.6% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | L2 Years | 12.0% | 8.4% | Home | 7.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.1% | Road | 20.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 7.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.7% | 6.8% | Road | 22.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 8.7% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 25.6% | 6.2% | Home | 26.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 2.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.1% | 9.1% | Road | 15.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.7% | Home | 18.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 24.8% | 10.4% | Home | 26.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 11.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.0% | Home | 23.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 9.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.7% | 8.2% | Road | 20.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.4% | Home | 21.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.8% | 9.5% | Road | 22.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.1% | Home | 30.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.7% | Road | 17.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.3% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 7.7% | Road | 30.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 6.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.8% | Home | 20.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 3.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 22.7% | 10.9% | LH | 22.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 12.9% |
| Indians | Road | 18.2% | 9.4% | LH | 17.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.0% | 7.5% | RH | 22.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.5% | LH | 17.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.1% | 6.2% | RH | 21.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.7% | 9.1% | RH | 19.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.2% |
| Rays | Home | 25.2% | 9.5% | RH | 25.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.2% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 9.3% | RH | 20.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.6% | 8.7% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.2% | RH | 21.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.5% | 8.4% | RH | 23.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Road | 21.0% | 8.5% | LH | 19.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 13.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.6% | 8.5% | RH | 25.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 6.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 5.9% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.1% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 7.2% | RH | 25.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.4% | 9.0% | RH | 22.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.2% | 8.8% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.4% | 6.4% | RH | 20.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.4% | 8.8% | LH | 19.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 6.0% |
| Mets | Road | 20.8% | 8.4% | RH | 19.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 9.5% | LH | 24.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.9% | 9.6% | RH | 23.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% |
| Twins | Road | 22.4% | 9.4% | RH | 22.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 16.2% | 10.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.7% | 6.7% | 26.7% | 2017 | 36.7% | 6.7% | 26.7% | Home | 44.4% | 9.1% | 38.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 2017 | 33.0% | 13.4% | 12.4% | Home | 31.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 6.2% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2017 | 29.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | Road | 31.9% | 8.7% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 25.0% | 19.3% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.9% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 32.3% | 22.9% | 21.2% | Home | 26.7% | 15.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 16.7% | 20.6% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 2017 | 31.6% | 14.3% | 14.8% | Home | 30.0% | 9.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 2017 | 34.1% | 11.0% | 13.8% | Road | 31.6% | 14.7% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 32.2% | 13.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 28.9% | 18.8% | 13.3% | Road | 31.9% | 14.0% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 9.1% | 16.0% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 38.3% | 15.7% | 23.5% | 2017 | 38.3% | 15.7% | 23.5% | Road | 40.9% | 18.9% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -8.3% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 21.6% | 12.4% | 2017 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 43.3% | Home | 42.9% | 26.7% | 26.6% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 28.6% | 40.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 2017 | 31.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% | Road | 30.8% | 13.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.5% | -15.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2017 | 34.4% | 16.3% | 14.8% | Road | 35.3% | 16.7% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 22.2% | 34.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.7% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 2017 | 30.2% | 5.6% | 12.7% | Home | 29.9% | 7.5% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 0.0% | 23.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 8.9% | 13.1% | Road | 33.9% | 14.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 36.4% | 19.3% | 22.0% | Road | 32.6% | 14.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 20.0% | 5.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 2017 | 29.9% | 15.5% | 10.5% | Home | 21.8% | 10.0% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 26.8% | 19.0% | 5.0% | 2017 | 26.8% | 19.0% | 5.0% | Home | 27.6% | 21.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 12.5% | -2.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 2017 | 27.8% | 11.5% | 7.3% | Home | 30.1% | 11.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 9.4% | -22.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 2017 | 28.0% | 12.1% | 10.6% | Road | 33.3% | 20.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2017 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 13.6% | Home | 27.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 16.7% | 6.4% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 2017 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 1.0% | Road | 30.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -21.4% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 34.2% | 16.4% | 17.4% | 2017 | 38.1% | 20.0% | 23.0% | Home | 35.1% | 18.3% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 0.0% | 27.2% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.3% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 19.6% | 17.5% | Road | 36.5% | 16.8% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 12.5% | 28.6% |
| Yu Darvish | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 2017 | 31.8% | 14.4% | 11.8% | Road | 26.4% | 11.0% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 2017 | 28.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | Home | 33.8% | 14.7% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 34.6% | 15.5% | 19.0% | LH | 35.0% | 18.4% | 19.1% | L7Days | 44.1% | 22.6% | 30.1% |
| Indians | Road | 34.7% | 11.9% | 18.2% | LH | 31.2% | 12.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 27.1% | 10.0% | 2.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.2% | 12.9% | 6.7% | RH | 30.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 29.0% | 8.5% | 14.8% |
| Astros | Road | 33.8% | 15.5% | 15.6% | LH | 29.1% | 14.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 17.2% | 14.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.4% | 13.5% | 14.7% | RH | 32.2% | 15.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.1% | RH | 31.9% | 15.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 28.4% | 14.5% | 12.3% |
| Rays | Home | 37.0% | 15.3% | 18.8% | RH | 35.1% | 17.3% | 17.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Home | 28.5% | 15.4% | 7.4% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.5% | 12.3% | 10.1% | RH | 29.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.7% | 1.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.6% | 13.3% | 32.1% | RH | 40.1% | 11.4% | 24.6% | L7Days | 35.0% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.6% | 15.2% | 9.4% | RH | 30.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 31.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Road | 32.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | LH | 30.4% | 8.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 29.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.7% | 12.6% | 11.9% | RH | 31.0% | 12.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.5% | 14.7% | 16.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.3% | 18.2% | 18.2% | RH | 33.8% | 18.4% | 15.0% | L7Days | 38.5% | 9.3% | 23.8% |
| Royals | Road | 31.9% | 13.9% | 12.3% | RH | 31.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 15.5% | -2.6% |
| Padres | Road | 30.6% | 14.8% | 8.6% | RH | 29.4% | 14.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 35.9% | 17.7% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | RH | 31.3% | 16.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.5% | 14.9% | 4.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 14.5% | 9.7% | RH | 30.4% | 15.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 17.8% | -5.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 14.5% | 10.0% | RH | 31.9% | 15.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 27.6% | 11.6% | 6.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.2% | 12.2% | 10.0% | LH | 30.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 14.1% | 8.9% |
| Mets | Road | 36.6% | 15.2% | 19.5% | RH | 34.9% | 13.0% | 17.6% | L7Days | 31.2% | 14.5% | 8.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.2% | 15.0% | 17.3% | LH | 32.5% | 9.9% | 14.3% | L7Days | 40.1% | 12.2% | 28.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.4% | 16.3% | 23.9% | RH | 35.3% | 14.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 37.1% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 11.5% | 11.9% | RH | 33.1% | 12.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 36.5% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 25.5% | 11.5% | 2.22 | 25.5% | 11.5% | 2.22 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 19.8% | 9.5% | 2.08 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 1.89 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 31.2% | 12.4% | 2.52 | 28.4% | 10.4% | 2.73 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 30.0% | 11.6% | 2.59 | 35.7% | 11.3% | 3.16 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 13.1% | 8.4% | 1.56 | 12.4% | 7.6% | 1.63 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 22.1% | 11.5% | 1.92 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 1.63 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 32.8% | 16.2% | 2.02 | 39.4% | 17.6% | 2.24 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 29.5% | 13.3% | 2.22 | 26.9% | 12.7% | 2.12 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 11.1% | 5.8% | 1.91 | 11.1% | 5.8% | 1.91 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.41 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 2.68 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.8% | 13.9% | 2.07 | 30.3% | 12.8% | 2.37 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 28.8% | 13.1% | 2.20 | 33.3% | 13.2% | 2.52 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.4% | 10.1% | 1.72 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 1.37 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.5% | 9.2% | 1.58 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 1.92 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.1% | 9.0% | 2.34 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 2.21 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.10 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 1.92 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 24.0% | 11.7% | 2.05 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 1.77 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.95 | 25.2% | 13.8% | 1.83 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.9% | 10.1% | 1.97 | 27.5% | 13.2% | 2.08 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 22.9% | 9.8% | 2.34 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 21.8% | 9.2% | 2.37 | 15.9% | 6.0% | 2.65 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.0% | 7.7% | 2.47 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 2.02 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 26.8% | 12.1% | 2.21 | 31.1% | 17.1% | 1.82 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.23 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 2.80 |
Some who are bordering on the edge were talked about already, but the key takeaway here is how many average and above rates there are on this board with 12 arms above an 11 SwStr% on this board in total and 10 above a 24 K%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 3.86 | 4.15 | 0.29 | 4.66 | 0.8 | 3.48 | -0.38 | 6.41 | 2.55 | 3.86 | 4.16 | 0.3 | 4.66 | 0.8 | 3.48 | -0.38 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.98 | 5.21 | 0.23 | 5.09 | 0.11 | 5.05 | 0.07 | 4.80 | -0.18 | 5.31 | 4.35 | -0.96 | 4.4 | -0.91 | 4.86 | -0.45 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 3.2 | 3.82 | 0.62 | 3.85 | 0.65 | 2.97 | -0.23 | 4.00 | 0.80 | 4.95 | 3.51 | -1.44 | 3.79 | -1.16 | 4.34 | -0.61 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.66 | 3.91 | -0.75 | 3.66 | -1 | 4.74 | 0.08 | 5.46 | 0.80 | 4.91 | 2.92 | -1.99 | 2.75 | -2.16 | 5.18 | 0.27 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 4.82 | 5.53 | 0.71 | 5.4 | 0.58 | 5.5 | 0.68 | 7.91 | 3.09 | 4.91 | 5.83 | 0.92 | 5.84 | 0.93 | 5.78 | 0.87 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.77 | 4.31 | 0.54 | 4.63 | 0.86 | 4.15 | 0.38 | 3.73 | -0.04 | 5.61 | 5.06 | -0.55 | 5.3 | -0.31 | 4.85 | -0.76 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.32 | 3.44 | -0.88 | 3.26 | -1.06 | 3.82 | -0.5 | 3.25 | -1.07 | 1.35 | 2.46 | 1.11 | 2.42 | 1.07 | 1.74 | 0.39 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5.12 | 3.67 | -1.45 | 3.95 | -1.17 | 4.24 | -0.88 | 3.67 | -1.45 | 3.63 | 4.1 | 0.47 | 3.87 | 0.24 | 3.09 | -0.54 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 5 | 5.14 | 0.14 | 5.09 | 0.09 | 8.69 | 3.69 | 8.21 | 3.21 | 5 | 5.14 | 0.14 | 5.09 | 0.09 | 8.69 | 3.69 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4 | 4.09 | 0.09 | 3.94 | -0.06 | 4.21 | 0.21 | 3.71 | -0.29 | 2.53 | 3.87 | 1.34 | 3.98 | 1.45 | 3.36 | 0.83 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.36 | 3.52 | 0.16 | 3.37 | 0.01 | 3.67 | 0.31 | 3.02 | -0.34 | 2.41 | 3.23 | 0.82 | 3.52 | 1.11 | 2.72 | 0.31 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 2.7 | 3.38 | 0.68 | 3.13 | 0.43 | 2.31 | -0.39 | 2.82 | 0.12 | 1.41 | 2.2 | 0.79 | 1.95 | 0.54 | 0.95 | -0.46 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.73 | 4.79 | 0.06 | 5.06 | 0.33 | 4.21 | -0.52 | 4.36 | -0.37 | 3.77 | 4.67 | 0.9 | 4.62 | 0.85 | 3.33 | -0.44 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.03 | 5.19 | -0.84 | 4.86 | -1.17 | 5.5 | -0.53 | 6.49 | 0.46 | 4.82 | 4.61 | -0.21 | 4.12 | -0.7 | 3.68 | -1.14 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.12 | 4.56 | 1.44 | 4.59 | 1.47 | 4.84 | 1.72 | 4.51 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 4.92 | 3.44 | 4.6 | 3.12 | 3.7 | 2.22 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.64 | 4.05 | 0.41 | 3.87 | 0.23 | 4.41 | 0.77 | 4.06 | 0.42 | 4.02 | 4.43 | 0.41 | 4.17 | 0.15 | 4.22 | 0.2 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.12 | 4.45 | -0.67 | 4.84 | -0.28 | 4.44 | -0.68 | 7.02 | 1.90 | 4.94 | 5.44 | 0.5 | 5.98 | 1.04 | 4.82 | -0.12 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 3.41 | 3.74 | 0.33 | 3.33 | -0.08 | 3.2 | -0.21 | 3.28 | -0.13 | 1.48 | 3.47 | 1.99 | 3.09 | 1.61 | 1.99 | 0.51 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.82 | 4.52 | -0.3 | 4.34 | -0.48 | 4.2 | -0.62 | 4.61 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 3.98 | 1.02 | 3.8 | 0.84 | 3.26 | 0.3 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.32 | 4.21 | -0.11 | 4.12 | -0.2 | 3.47 | -0.85 | 3.78 | -0.54 | 6.75 | 5.28 | -1.47 | 4.92 | -1.83 | 3.14 | -3.61 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 4.82 | 4.67 | -0.15 | 4.53 | -0.29 | 5.34 | 0.52 | 5.22 | 0.40 | 3 | 5.73 | 2.73 | 5.27 | 2.27 | 5.52 | 2.52 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.51 | 5.04 | -0.47 | 4.64 | -0.87 | 5.26 | -0.25 | 5.51 | 0.00 | 7.36 | 5.42 | -1.94 | 5.09 | -2.27 | 6.02 | -1.34 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 3.81 | 3.77 | -0.04 | 3.73 | -0.08 | 3.81 | 0 | 2.89 | -0.92 | 5.33 | 2.99 | -2.34 | 2.88 | -2.45 | 3.69 | -1.64 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.18 | 4.78 | 0.6 | 4.58 | 0.4 | 4.58 | 0.4 | 4.75 | 0.57 | 2.12 | 4.64 | 2.52 | 4.26 | 2.14 | 3.4 | 1.28 |
Brad Peacock still has a 6.5 HR/FB on the season and that’s even with the three allowed in his last start.
Danny Salazar has a .327 BABIP, but it’s not really much higher than his career rate (.306) or what his team has allowed (.303). He has just a .189 BABIP since returning from the DL (three starts).
Note the lack of season long outliers on this board today.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 0.294 | 0.310 | 0.016 | 33.3% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 78.2% | 83.2 | 3.30% | 36.70% | 30 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.300 | 0.016 | 42.0% | 0.193 | 14.6% | 85.4% | 85.3 | 5.50% | 31.70% | 218 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.296 | 0.001 | 39.8% | 0.199 | 10.4% | 80.8% | 87.1 | 5.20% | 29.80% | 191 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.319 | 0.031 | 41.4% | 0.232 | 0.0% | 78.2% | 90 | 9.10% | 43.40% | 99 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.244 | -0.048 | 39.4% | 0.234 | 5.7% | 86.5% | 86.5 | 7.40% | 31.60% | 95 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.293 | 0.275 | -0.018 | 33.8% | 0.191 | 15.0% | 86.2% | 86 | 6.90% | 28.30% | 375 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.024 | 38.8% | 0.253 | 12.5% | 78.1% | 88.5 | 8.30% | 31.70% | 180 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.307 | 0.265 | -0.042 | 37.9% | 0.186 | 5.7% | 81.7% | 88.2 | 11.10% | 39.50% | 162 |
| Drew VerHagen | DET | 0.309 | 0.154 | -0.155 | 46.7% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 94.9% | 90.3 | 10.00% | 40.00% | 30 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.297 | -0.011 | 46.5% | 0.199 | 10.8% | 87.0% | 85.3 | 7.50% | 32.40% | 426 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.291 | -0.029 | 45.0% | 0.199 | 10.1% | 78.9% | 86.3 | 6.70% | 29.60% | 372 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.279 | 0.301 | 0.022 | 46.5% | 0.226 | 13.5% | 82.1% | 86.5 | 1.70% | 29.90% | 291 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.305 | 0.006 | 38.1% | 0.205 | 8.3% | 88.0% | 87.6 | 7.00% | 33.50% | 412 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 52.1% | 0.219 | 3.4% | 89.4% | 88.2 | 7.60% | 37.00% | 341 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.221 | -0.073 | 43.2% | 0.18 | 11.3% | 82.4% | 86.5 | 6.50% | 29.40% | 371 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.254 | -0.039 | 58.9% | 0.113 | 7.1% | 83.6% | 86 | 3.50% | 30.30% | 142 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 30.9% | 0.194 | 15.4% | 80.3% | 87.4 | 8.10% | 33.20% | 370 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 0.290 | 0.281 | -0.009 | 56.3% | 0.208 | 3.0% | 85.7% | 86 | 5.50% | 38.20% | 293 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.304 | 0.011 | 47.2% | 0.208 | 6.7% | 84.5% | 86.6 | 5.70% | 33.20% | 383 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.285 | 0.333 | 0.048 | 40.0% | 0.242 | 8.8% | 86.8% | 86.9 | 4.20% | 36.50% | 96 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.297 | 0.298 | 0.001 | 43.1% | 0.223 | 8.6% | 86.4% | 89 | 7.30% | 42.00% | 205 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.336 | 0.021 | 50.4% | 0.235 | 8.7% | 90.5% | 87.1 | 6.70% | 35.60% | 360 |
| Yu Darvish | LOS | 0.280 | 0.272 | -0.008 | 40.3% | 0.228 | 7.9% | 83.1% | 85.5 | 6.30% | 31.30% | 380 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.295 | -0.005 | 48.9% | 0.216 | 9.7% | 90.1% | 86 | 5.20% | 31.10% | 427 |
Jacob deGrom has a .291 BABIP and what a joke that it appears an outlier because of his defense. Perhaps the team defense will be better the rest of the way with improved shortstop play.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (1) may not be in as high an upside (strikeout) spot as someone like Salazar, but his talent and season performance is equal to anyone on this board, while he might be in the top overall spot for run prevention.
Value Tier Two
Danny Salazar (3) has been flat out dominant since returning from injury and is in a top strikeout spot tonight. He likely projects for the top strikeout rate on a board with several high priced pitchers. There is some risk here as well, given his history in the other two three true outcomes as well. The Rays have some pop.
Value Tier Three
Jacob deGrom (2) probably fits somewhere between the second and third tier. His five innings with eight strikeouts (three runs, two HRs) against the Dodgers last time out may not be up to his recent standards, but it may be considered a victory against that offense. He’s obviously in a much better spot in Philadelphia, but at the highest cost on the board.
Yu Darvish (4) is used to pitching in difficult environments, so it’s not like he can’t succeed in Arizona and he certainly has the upside of any pitcher above him, but just hasn’t been as consistent with it. Maybe that will change in the National League.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brad Peacock has lost some of his luster, but is still having a great year and finds himself in a damn good spot in Chicago, against the White Sox tonight.
Sonny Gray originally just missed this list as I liked the upside in these other high cost arms a bit more, but the contact management has been so exceptional for about a month and a half now that I couldn’t resist.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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