Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, August 9th
A couple of notes before getting started on Wednesday’s slate. The two very early games will be skipped entirely because we won’t make that deadline and the Rangers don’t even know who they’re pitching against the Mets after moving up today’s original pitcher last night. The remaining three later afternoon games will be listed, but not covered in the notes.
The Blue Jays have also delayed announcing a pitcher against the Yankees because nobody wants to pitch against New York teams today? That’s probably not it, but twitter rumors Lucas Harrell could be the guy (nope, it’s Nick Tepesch) and that’s our best guess right now.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.54 | 5.34 | 39.8% | 1.01 | 4.99 | 4.81 | WAS | 114 | 106 | 76 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.8 | 3.54 | 5.77 | 57.1% | 1.13 | 3.33 | 4.48 | ARI | 108 | 76 | 84 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 7.3 | 3.84 | 4.42 | 27.7% | 1.02 | 4.08 | 3.26 | SDG | 81 | 88 | 91 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | -0.2 | 4.55 | 5.7 | 43.6% | 1.02 | 5.01 | 5.57 | MIL | 89 | 92 | 73 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | -1.6 | 4.22 | 6.1 | 36.8% | 1.02 | 4.22 | MIN | 87 | 98 | 109 | |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -5.5 | 3.94 | 5.78 | 40.5% | 0.98 | 4.24 | 3.82 | CHW | 91 | 86 | 73 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1 | 4.11 | 5.85 | 46.6% | 1.01 | 3.69 | 4.15 | MIA | 101 | 95 | 79 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -2.4 | 4.12 | 5.93 | 50.1% | 0.98 | 3.85 | 3.78 | DET | 113 | 93 | 50 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.5 | 4.31 | 5.59 | 34.2% | 0.96 | 4.43 | BOS | 94 | 92 | 113 | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.2 | 4.19 | 5.88 | 39.8% | 1 | 4.41 | 6.17 | ATL | 86 | 86 | 85 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -11.2 | 4.73 | 5.44 | 37.6% | 0.93 | 5.31 | 5.91 | SEA | 94 | 102 | 83 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.7 | 3.81 | 6.49 | 34.1% | 0.98 | 4.13 | 3.46 | PIT | 89 | 87 | 84 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -5.1 | 4.02 | 5.72 | 44.1% | 0.91 | 4.17 | 3.35 | ANA | 99 | 95 | 99 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.2 | 3.72 | 5.87 | 49.7% | 0.93 | 4.06 | 4.52 | SFO | 78 | 81 | 84 |
| Lucas Harrell | TOR | -1.9 | 5.16 | 5.22 | 44.2% | 1.03 | 4.53 | NYY | 98 | 112 | 66 | |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -3 | 3.29 | 6.77 | 40.7% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 3.92 | CHC | 94 | 112 | 92 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.4 | 3.61 | 6.28 | 48.7% | 1.03 | 3.81 | 1.85 | TOR | 94 | 92 | 110 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -0.1 | 5.01 | 5.72 | 40.5% | 0.98 | 4.84 | 6.04 | HOU | 134 | 132 | 135 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -1.5 | 4.12 | 6. | 54.3% | 0.98 | 3.74 | 4.49 | KAN | 85 | 89 | 74 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.4 | 3.82 | 6.66 | 42.6% | 0.96 | 4.12 | 4.12 | TAM | 106 | 106 | 53 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -1.8 | 4.92 | 5.22 | 39.9% | 1 | 5.28 | 6.42 | PHI | 78 | 83 | 89 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -5.4 | 4.32 | 4.17 | 38.6% | 1.02 | 5.32 | 3.94 | CIN | 99 | 87 | 89 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 7.2 | 3.68 | 5.3 | 56.4% | 0.98 | 3.72 | 5.61 | STL | 101 | 97 | 134 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 2 | 7.06 | 4. | 16.7% | 0.91 | 8.86 | 7.06 | BAL | 90 | 100 | 123 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7.4 | 5.12 | 5.22 | 0.452 | 0.93 | 5.06 | 6.88 | OAK | 111 | 103 | 117 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.4 | 3.63 | 6.4 | 0.465 | 1.13 | 3.74 | 2.61 | LOS | 104 | 110 | 118 |
Alex Wood halted his velocity slide, at least for one game. He didn’t really increase it, but it just didn’t drop any further. While he only allowed one run in six innings, he struck out just two on a season low 4.6 SwStr%. It was his fourth straight start with five strikeouts or less and his fourth time in five starts with a ground ball rate below 50%. The good news and maybe the only bit of it currently, is that he’s still managing contact well (-3.3 Hard-Soft% since the start of July). It’s well known that the Diamondbacks mash at home (23.9 Hard-Soft%), but they struggle significantly against LHP (25.6 K%). One would think with a healthy Pollock, Goldschmidt and Martinez in the middle of the order, they’d be better and they are when they hit the ball (15.7 HR/FB).
Asher Wojciechowski threw five strong innings (1 ER – 1 BB – 5 K) at the Cardinals in his first start since mid-June last time out. With nearly half of his innings coming out the pen this year, he’s put up some solid numbers (19.6 K-BB%). He allows so many fly balls though (27.7 GB%) that even an 86 mph aEV has turned out 8.5% Barrels/BBE and seven HRs in 39 innings. While that’s always going to be a larger concern in a park like Cincinnati, the Padres don’t have over-whelming power, but they do strike out a ton (25.2% vs RHP).
Brandon Woodruff threw six shutout innings at the Rays in his major league debut, striking out six, but also stranding nine runners. He arrives with some expectations (#6 in the organization via Fangraphs, 50 FV grade) and made an appearance late in the FG Top 100 Prospects list. His 14.8 K-BB% at AAA this season doesn’t blow you away, but that’s exactly what he did in his first major league start too with a -10.5 Hard-Soft%. While the matchup doesn’t necessarily get tougher tonight, the park does in his first home start against a below average offense that will strike out a bit (22% on the road and vs RHP), but one that has been hot (16.6 K%, 17.6 HR/FB last seven days). The good news is that they will lose their DH tonight, whomever they determine that to be.
Justin Verlander has been missing more bats in recent starts. In fact, he’s gone seven innings with at least eight strikeouts in three straight starts. While he allows too much hard contact (87.9 mph aEV, 19.7 Hard-Soft%) in the air (33.2 GB%), Pittsburgh isn’t really a team that can punish him (10.2 HR/FB), though they may take a couple of strikeouts away (18.6 K% vs RHP).
Masahiro Tanaka seems to go on streaks of HRs. While he’s allowed 27 this year in 22 starts, he’s had eight starts without allowing one and did not in his last one either. He has at least five strikeouts in 10 straight starts with a 27.6 K-BB% and 50.6 GB%. That’s high upside stuff even if his 9.3% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board. His hard hit rate has been below 30% over this 10 game span as well. While the Blue Jays have picked it up as of late (7.0 K-BB%, 20.9 HR/FB last seven days), they’ve not met expectations this season.
Mike Leake doesn’t give you much upside, but does have a double digit K-BB% (his 10.4% rate this year is exactly his career rate) and a 55.8 GB% (fourth among qualifiers). He faces a weak hitting Kansas City offense in an NL park tonight.
Rick Porcello allows too much hard contact (26 HRs, 88.2 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE), but the biggest indicator of how much he’s tanked this year is that he’s gone from 22 Wins to just five this year and from four Losses to 14. If it weren’t for him, the Red Sox would be running away with the division. His 16.4 K-BB% is only one point below last year. The 41.1 Hard% and 38.8 GB% are both career worsts though. He’s faced Tampa Bay three times. They homered four times against him in the first one, but have just one with 14 strikeouts (59 batters faced) in the last two.
Trevor Cahill has allowed four HRs in two starts for the Royals, striking out just five of 42 batters. He’s now gone five innings or less in five of six starts since returning from the DL with a total of six strikeouts against eight walks over his last three. The velocity looks fine and the ground ball rate has been hit or miss on a per start basis. For the season he has a 55.4 GB% with an 85.3 mph aEV and 27.4% 95+ mph EV. He also still has a career best 25.3 K% and is holding something around league average over the last month because he’s struck out eight twice since he’s been back. It may still be in there. The Royals hope so. The Cardinals are suddenly the hottest offense on the slate (12.5 BB% over the last week). Overall, it seems about an average spot.
Zack Greinke allowed two HRs and six runs in six innings at Wrigley last time out, but did strike out eight of 26 batters and has K’d 17 of his last 52 after his strikeout rate had been dropping off a bit. The discrepancy is that Fangraphs gives him a 35.3 Hard% and even Statcast has 7.2% Barrels/BBE, but with an 86 mph aEV and 28.4% 95+ mph EV. The major issue is the worst matchup on the slate. He’s hosting the Dodgers (21.2 HR/FB, 26.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.241 – 85.5% – 11.7) has a 12.8 K-BB%. That’s league average pitcher range. While his contact management has been solid (85.2 mph aEV, 28.5% 95+ mph EV), he has just an average ground ball rate in an average matchup, though it is kind of strange to see the Marlins with a 26.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. How weak has the contact been by guys not named Stanton and Ozuna? It’s the cost that makes him prohibitive. One which is increased by BABIP and strand rate.
Collin McHugh (.233 – 81.1% – 12.0) has pitched well in two of this last three starts. He’s missing more bats that usual with a double digit SwStr% in each of his three starts against the Orioles, Tigers, and Rays, so all teams that will strike out at a rate higher than league average. While the White Sox are the poorest offense he’s faced so far and are in that same range (16.4 K-BB%), the contact he’s allowed so far has been exceptionally hard (88.6 mph aEV, 40% 95+ mph EV) and not indicative of a pitcher costing more than $8.5K. He should be fine in a great spot. He could be useful too, but appears a tad expensive.
Jake Odorizzi (.238 – 74.6% – 18.3) missed a couple of weeks with a back issue. He struck out six of 12 high A ballers in a single rehab start, but is rocking a four and a half ERA even with the low BABIP this year. The Red Sox aren’t a terrible matchup, but don’t strike out a lot.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ivan Nova has suddenly been missing bats at an above average rate and is in a spot where the opposing team will strike out a bit, but they also hit the ball hard. Less hard since trading their two hardest hitters according to Statcast, but still pretty hard. Those two guys don’t account entirely for a 31.8 Hard-Soft% at home and 24.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. He’s allowed quite a bit of hard contact too (88.1 mph aEV) and has a ground ball rate not much above average. This is a confusing spot because he’s maybe now something he wasn’t earlier in the season and the Tigers are good at home, below average vs RHP, and have been terrible over the last week (15.5 K-BB%).
Jerad Eickhoff has league average peripherals and has generally been a league average pitcher, who can be useful in the right spots. The problem since the beginning of June has been an 11.7 BB% with a 23.2 Hard-Soft%. Somehow, that’s led to only six HRs with three of them coming in the least power friendly park he’s pitched in (Miami).
Adam Conley does have a SwStr% near his career rate and league average, which should translate to a K% near his career rate and league average, which could make him a league average pitcher, but overall contact has been a bit harder this year too and we want no part of him against Washington.
Sean Newcomb can miss a bunch of bats, but has completed six innings in just one of his last five starts due to an 18.6 BB%. He walked seven last time out.
Lucas Harrell or Nick Tepesch it probably doesn’t matter. You have stats for the Yankees vs RHP.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.5% | Road | 20.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.5% | Road | 25.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 25.3% | 5.7% | Home | 29.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 6.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.0% | 4.4% | Road | 11.6% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 3.1% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.4% | Home | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% | ||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.7% | 6.9% | Road | 21.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.9% | Home | 25.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.4% | Road | 17.1% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.5% | Home | 22.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.7% | Road | 19.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.6% | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 7.6% | Home | 26.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 5.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.4% | 7.3% | Road | 21.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 6.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.5% | Road | 21.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.1% |
| Lucas Harrell | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 17.4% | 12.0% | Home | 18.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.4% | 5.4% | Home | 26.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.4% | 4.5% | Road | 19.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 2.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.2% | 7.5% | Home | 16.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 7.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.8% | 5.0% | Home | 16.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.0% | Road | 20.5% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 5.9% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 23.1% | 13.5% | Home | 18.4% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 21.7% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.8% | Road | 19.2% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 25.3% | 10.4% | Road | 23.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 14.7% | 14.7% | Home | 13.6% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.0% | 10.3% | Road | 15.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 6.8% | 11.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.8% | 5.4% | Home | 23.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 1.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 19.8% | 9.0% | LH | 21.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.0% | 9.7% | LH | 25.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 7.3% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.5% | 8.5% | RH | 25.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 30.6% | 6.7% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 9.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.1% | 7.4% | RH | 22.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.4% | 6.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.4% | 6.5% | LH | 20.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 9.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 8.6% | RH | 19.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.6% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 21.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.6% | 8.6% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 7.7% | RH | 19.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 18.9% | 7.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 9.5% | LH | 21.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.0% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 8.6% | RH | 17.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 5.6% |
| Rays | Home | 25.1% | 9.6% | RH | 25.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 7.7% | LH | 21.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.4% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 9.3% | LH | 21.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 11.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.6% | 9.5% | RH | 21.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.0% | 6.3% | RH | 21.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 9.6% | RH | 24.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.7% | 10.8% | RH | 22.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 2017 | 37.1% | 10.0% | 18.8% | Road | 31.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 17.6% | 22.5% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 2017 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | Road | 25.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 10.0% | 13.7% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 30.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 2017 | 30.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% | Home | 22.2% | 8.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 33.8% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 2017 | 35.4% | 12.9% | 15.9% | Road | 36.4% | 12.4% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 8.0% | 30.4% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.8% | 0.0% | -10.5% | 2017 | 15.8% | 0.0% | -10.5% | Home | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | -10.5% | |||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 2017 | 28.9% | 12.0% | 17.8% | Road | 34.6% | 12.6% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 6.7% | 16.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 11.7% | 7.7% | Home | 32.4% | 13.4% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.3% | -2.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.5% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 2017 | 33.1% | 16.0% | 15.1% | Road | 36.4% | 18.8% | 22.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 33.9% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 2017 | 37.8% | 18.3% | 21.9% | Home | 36.7% | 14.6% | 18.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.2% | 18.8% | Road | 33.5% | 12.0% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 5.9% | 23.6% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 2017 | 31.5% | 12.8% | 10.0% | Home | 29.1% | 14.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 14.3% | 10.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 2017 | 36.0% | 10.1% | 19.7% | Home | 33.3% | 10.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 2017 | 34.5% | 15.2% | 16.6% | Road | 33.8% | 15.4% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 11.1% | 28.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 2017 | 35.5% | 16.7% | 12.8% | Road | 27.8% | 11.7% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
| Lucas Harrell | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.8% | 18.0% | 2017 | 47.8% | 20.0% | 34.8% | Home | 34.8% | 16.0% | 20.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 31.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 2017 | 35.3% | 8.8% | 16.8% | Home | 32.5% | 7.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 2017 | 31.8% | 22.0% | 13.5% | Road | 30.7% | 14.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 10.0% | 13.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2017 | 33.1% | 10.9% | 17.7% | Home | 28.7% | 6.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 12.5% | 24.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 2017 | 31.4% | 13.9% | 15.9% | Home | 27.7% | 17.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.6% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 2017 | 41.1% | 13.8% | 24.7% | Road | 34.7% | 13.5% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.4% | 11.5% | 12.2% | Home | 26.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 7.7% | 4.2% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 30.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 2017 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 5.2% | Road | 33.3% | 7.8% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 12.5% | -3.4% |
| Trevor Cahill | Royals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 19.4% | 8.7% | 2017 | 30.0% | 18.9% | 9.2% | Road | 35.0% | 22.4% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 36.4% | 15.1% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.5% | 13.3% | 12.4% | Road | 29.5% | 11.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 5.6% | -2.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2017 | 35.0% | 14.1% | 13.5% | Home | 37.1% | 12.9% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 13.3% | 29.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 15.0% | 16.2% | LH | 31.3% | 15.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 25.5% | 12.2% | 9.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.4% | 16.5% | 23.9% | LH | 32.3% | 15.7% | 15.1% | L7Days | 34.6% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| Padres | Road | 30.7% | 14.7% | 8.7% | RH | 29.5% | 13.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 35.6% | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.1% | 18.5% | 17.8% | RH | 33.6% | 18.6% | 14.7% | L7Days | 36.7% | 13.2% | 21.5% |
| Twins | Road | 30.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | RH | 33.0% | 12.6% | 16.2% | L7Days | 34.4% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.4% | 13.1% | 6.7% | RH | 30.7% | 13.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 28.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.2% | 14.8% | 10.4% | LH | 26.7% | 14.4% | 2.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 7.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.5% | 13.3% | 31.8% | RH | 40.0% | 11.4% | 24.3% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.0% | 11.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 31.7% | 11.3% | 11.6% | RH | 33.9% | 10.9% | 16.0% | L7Days | 30.4% | 17.3% | 23.0% |
| Braves | Home | 29.3% | 12.0% | 9.7% | RH | 30.7% | 11.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.5% | 11.4% | 13.6% | RH | 30.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.5% | 10.4% | RH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.5% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 13.0% | 10.4% | RH | 31.0% | 13.1% | 11.5% | L7Days | 30.3% | 10.0% | 11.7% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | RH | 28.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.9% | 9.0% | 11.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% | RH | 31.2% | 16.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.5% | -0.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 14.7% | 10.7% | LH | 29.8% | 18.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 17.6% | 14.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.6% | 10.2% | RH | 30.5% | 15.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 20.9% | -2.1% |
| Astros | Road | 33.8% | 15.8% | 15.4% | RH | 33.5% | 16.0% | 15.9% | L7Days | 29.7% | 16.9% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 13.8% | 12.6% | RH | 31.4% | 12.1% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 12.8% | -2.7% |
| Rays | Home | 37.1% | 15.2% | 19.0% | RH | 35.1% | 17.3% | 17.2% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | LH | 29.5% | 14.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| Reds | Home | 28.5% | 15.4% | 7.3% | LH | 28.7% | 14.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 16.1% | 11.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | RH | 31.1% | 12.7% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.6% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.7% | 14.9% | RH | 32.2% | 15.9% | 12.0% | L7Days | 31.1% | 18.7% | 15.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.2% | 14.9% | 17.2% | RH | 33.8% | 14.6% | 17.5% | L7Days | 39.3% | 10.7% | 27.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.6% | 15.5% | 18.8% | RH | 36.0% | 15.4% | 20.4% | L7Days | 42.1% | 21.2% | 26.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.73 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 1.94 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 27.0% | 12.5% | 2.16 | 14.9% | 8.7% | 1.71 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 25.3% | 10.6% | 2.39 | 32.8% | 10.1% | 3.25 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 13.1% | 5.1% | 2.57 | 10.5% | 5.8% | 1.81 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 22.2% | 12.4% | 1.79 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 1.79 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 24.6% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 24.6% | 12.4% | 1.98 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.45 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 2.57 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.3% | 8.2% | 1.87 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 1.90 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.4% | 11.5% | 1.77 | 22.7% | 14.7% | 1.54 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.42 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 2.62 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.04 | 15.9% | 9.9% | 1.61 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 | 29.0% | 12.4% | 2.34 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.9% | 10.5% | 1.99 | 30.1% | 13.8% | 2.18 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 19.8% | 7.5% | 2.64 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 2.38 |
| Lucas Harrell | TOR | 18.2% | 6.9% | 2.64 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 2.38 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.1% | 9.1% | 2.54 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 2.87 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 25.2% | 15.0% | 1.68 | 32.0% | 16.6% | 1.93 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 12.7% | 6.8% | 1.87 | 12.1% | 6.8% | 1.78 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.1% | 8.1% | 1.99 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 1.94 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.26 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 2.71 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 23.1% | 11.8% | 1.96 | 27.1% | 12.4% | 2.19 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 17.1% | 6.5% | 2.63 | 19.5% | 6.3% | 3.10 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 25.3% | 12.0% | 2.11 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 1.97 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 14.7% | 9.5% | 1.55 | 14.7% | 9.5% | 1.55 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.09 | 11.0% | 6.1% | 1.80 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.0% | 13.2% | 2.12 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 2.14 |
Masahiro Tanaka just keeps missing so many bats, it’s difficult for his strikeout rate to keep up. It’s been more in line recently though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 5.1 | 5.09 | -0.01 | 5.38 | 0.28 | 4.77 | -0.33 | 6.49 | 1.39 | 2.42 | 4.67 | 2.25 | 4.88 | 2.46 | 4.26 | 1.84 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.33 | 3.22 | 0.89 | 2.93 | 0.6 | 2.57 | 0.24 | 3.09 | 0.76 | 4.56 | 4.68 | 0.12 | 4.19 | -0.37 | 4.41 | -0.15 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 4.15 | 3.84 | -0.31 | 4.57 | 0.42 | 4.35 | 0.2 | 4.82 | 0.67 | 1.08 | 3.12 | 2.04 | 3.85 | 2.77 | 2.6 | 1.52 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 7.32 | 5.08 | -2.24 | 5.08 | -2.24 | 4.95 | -2.37 | 7.45 | 0.13 | 5.18 | 5.25 | 0.07 | 5.34 | 0.16 | 4.62 | -0.56 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 0 | 4.21 | 4.21 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 5.47 | 5.47 | 0 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 3.24 | 4.38 | 1.14 | 4.85 | 1.61 | 4.52 | 1.28 | 5.84 | 2.60 | 3.24 | 4.39 | 1.15 | 4.85 | 1.61 | 4.52 | 1.28 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.66 | 4.45 | 1.79 | 4.31 | 1.65 | 4.05 | 1.39 | 3.50 | 0.84 | 1.86 | 4.51 | 2.65 | 4.44 | 2.58 | 3.55 | 1.69 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.66 | 4.36 | 0.7 | 4.03 | 0.37 | 4.31 | 0.65 | 4.80 | 1.14 | 6.14 | 3.64 | -2.5 | 3.36 | -2.78 | 5.37 | -0.77 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.47 | 4.76 | 0.29 | 4.95 | 0.48 | 5.74 | 1.27 | 5.20 | 0.73 | 3.27 | 5.02 | 1.75 | 5.44 | 2.17 | 6.23 | 2.96 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.56 | 4.73 | 0.17 | 4.86 | 0.3 | 4.32 | -0.24 | 5.99 | 1.43 | 3.54 | 4.56 | 1.02 | 4.98 | 1.44 | 4.68 | 1.14 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.48 | 4.96 | -0.52 | 5.32 | -0.16 | 5.17 | -0.31 | 7.28 | 1.80 | 8.31 | 5.91 | -2.4 | 6.82 | -1.49 | 6.95 | -1.36 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.2 | 4.57 | 0.37 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 4.13 | -0.07 | 3.72 | -0.48 | 2.51 | 3.52 | 1.01 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 3.64 | 1.13 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.15 | 4.55 | -0.6 | 4.42 | -0.73 | 4.61 | -0.54 | 5.01 | -0.14 | 2.93 | 3.33 | 0.4 | 2.93 | 0 | 4.25 | 1.32 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.81 | 4.26 | 0.45 | 3.97 | 0.16 | 4.29 | 0.48 | 4.77 | 0.96 | 2.76 | 3.95 | 1.19 | 3.55 | 0.79 | 3.51 | 0.75 |
| Lucas Harrell | TOR | 7.11 | 4.75 | -2.36 | 4.55 | -2.56 | 5.19 | -1.92 | 5.31 | -1.80 | 7.36 | 5.46 | -1.9 | 4.93 | -2.43 | 7.5 | 0.14 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.88 | 3.83 | 0.95 | 3.95 | 1.07 | 3.22 | 0.34 | 3.38 | 0.50 | 2.78 | 4.17 | 1.39 | 4.35 | 1.57 | 3.76 | 0.98 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 4.93 | 3.52 | -1.41 | 3.5 | -1.43 | 4.51 | -0.42 | 3.66 | -1.27 | 3.94 | 2.53 | -1.41 | 2.51 | -1.43 | 3.39 | -0.55 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 5.15 | 5.56 | 0.41 | 5.7 | 0.55 | 5.19 | 0.04 | 6.18 | 1.03 | 5.14 | 5.89 | 0.75 | 6.2 | 1.06 | 5.24 | 0.1 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.34 | 4.22 | 0.88 | 3.96 | 0.62 | 3.98 | 0.64 | 4.56 | 1.22 | 4.32 | 4.63 | 0.31 | 4.56 | 0.24 | 4.1 | -0.22 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.7 | 4.11 | -0.59 | 4.31 | -0.39 | 4.33 | -0.37 | 4.84 | 0.14 | 4.44 | 3.97 | -0.47 | 4.17 | -0.27 | 5.53 | 1.09 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.61 | 4.92 | 0.31 | 4.8 | 0.19 | 4.53 | -0.08 | 5.98 | 1.37 | 5.76 | 5.33 | -0.43 | 5.38 | -0.38 | 5.54 | -0.22 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 6.49 | 4.95 | -1.54 | 5.34 | -1.15 | 4.49 | -2 | 7.06 | 0.57 | 7.2 | 4.27 | -2.93 | 4.51 | -2.69 | 4.14 | -3.06 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 4.13 | 3.85 | -0.28 | 3.62 | -0.51 | 4.13 | 0 | 3.34 | -0.79 | 6.38 | 4.49 | -1.89 | 4.34 | -2.04 | 6.35 | -0.03 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 4.5 | 7.06 | 2.56 | 7.55 | 3.05 | 7.02 | 2.52 | 8.43 | 3.93 | 4.5 | 7.06 | 2.56 | 7.55 | 3.05 | 7.02 | 2.52 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.35 | 5.16 | -0.19 | 5.02 | -0.33 | 4.96 | -0.39 | 5.05 | -0.30 | 3.78 | 6.65 | 2.87 | 6.97 | 3.19 | 7.1 | 3.32 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.1 | 3.27 | 0.17 | 3.19 | 0.09 | 3.24 | 0.14 | 2.54 | -0.56 | 4.15 | 3.49 | -0.66 | 3.52 | -0.63 | 3.6 | -0.55 |
Alex Wood is still stifling contact and has an 8.6 HR/FB. That was a nearly league average mark not too long ago, but anything in single digits appears unsustainable this year.
Masahiro Tanaka has a 22.0 HR/FB. He’s lowered it all the way to a 20 HR/FB over his recent 10 game stretch of dominance.
Mike Leake has a 16.7% unearned run rate (10 of his 60 total allowed).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.280 | -0.013 | 41.2% | 0.176 | 17.1% | 85.2% | 86.3 | 6.30% | 33.70% | 175 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.272 | -0.008 | 59.6% | 0.187 | 13.8% | 84.7% | 84.5 | 3.00% | 24.10% | 270 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.293 | 0.263 | -0.03 | 27.7% | 0.168 | 19.6% | 85.8% | 86 | 8.50% | 33.00% | 106 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.351 | 0.053 | 43.6% | 0.201 | 11.2% | 93.4% | 87.8 | 6.70% | 37.80% | 328 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 0.300 | 0.368 | 0.068 | 36.8% | 0.316 | 33.3% | 90.9% | ||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.233 | -0.062 | 20.5% | 0.227 | 4.0% | 85.5% | 88.6 | 4.40% | 40.00% | 45 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.293 | 0.241 | -0.052 | 45.2% | 0.184 | 9.5% | 86.2% | 85.2 | 5.40% | 28.50% | 386 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.288 | -0.02 | 47.8% | 0.233 | 8.4% | 91.5% | 88.1 | 6.20% | 36.70% | 469 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.238 | -0.046 | 31.2% | 0.237 | 9.5% | 81.2% | 86.9 | 8.80% | 35.30% | 283 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.309 | 0.012 | 39.1% | 0.208 | 8.7% | 88.8% | 88.2 | 6.20% | 33.60% | 324 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 37.5% | 0.162 | 13.7% | 83.0% | 85.8 | 4.60% | 29.60% | 260 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.303 | -0.006 | 33.2% | 0.244 | 10.1% | 86.1% | 87.9 | 7.50% | 36.50% | 400 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.355 | 0.04 | 43.1% | 0.234 | 9.1% | 85.2% | 88.1 | 8.80% | 35.00% | 397 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.274 | -0.009 | 49.8% | 0.214 | 10.6% | 88.3% | 85 | 5.10% | 30.80% | 234 |
| Lucas Harrell | TOR | 0.307 | 0.409 | 0.102 | 43.5% | 0.348 | 0.0% | 88.5% | ||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.269 | -0.048 | 41.2% | 0.188 | 8.8% | 89.0% | 86.6 | 5.80% | 32.40% | 173 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.290 | 0.311 | 0.021 | 48.9% | 0.182 | 10.6% | 84.7% | 88.2 | 9.30% | 36.60% | 377 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.304 | 0.016 | 39.4% | 0.206 | 8.7% | 90.0% | 87.7 | 7.10% | 35.60% | 351 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.289 | -0.005 | 55.8% | 0.206 | 5.0% | 90.2% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 36.30% | 433 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 38.8% | 0.21 | 9.0% | 87.7% | 88.2 | 8.50% | 35.10% | 470 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 39.9% | 0.238 | 5.8% | 83.8% | 87.4 | 6.10% | 35.80% | 148 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.345 | 0.038 | 40.1% | 0.198 | 8.7% | 89.1% | 87.7 | 4.60% | 33.90% | 174 |
| Trevor Cahill | KAN | 0.299 | 0.332 | 0.033 | 55.4% | 0.174 | 5.7% | 86.7% | 85.3 | 5.60% | 27.40% | 197 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 0.285 | 0.136 | -0.149 | 16.7% | 0.125 | 17.6% | 86.5% | ||||
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.279 | 0.287 | 0.008 | 45.7% | 0.194 | 18.6% | 88.6% | 87.3 | 6.10% | 33.40% | 329 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.279 | -0.015 | 46.9% | 0.167 | 10.4% | 85.0% | 86 | 7.20% | 28.40% | 377 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Masahiro Tanaka (1) has his flaws still and there may be a ball or two leaving the yard tonight (he’s allowed two in 13.1 innings against Toronto this year), but he’s been otherwise dominant over a two month stretch now. Strikeouts erase HRs as long as there’s nobody on base and his walk rate has been miniscule (3.9%) over this run. He still costs less than $10K due to that HR risk.
Value Tier Two
Asher Wojciechowski has a 19.6 K-BB% and costs less than $7K against the Padres. Of course, some of his innings have come out of the bullpen, but the majority of them have been as a starter. We worry about the long ball here and he’s probably on an 85 to 90 pitch limitation, but the cost can easily be covered in that span in a high upside spot.
Trevor Cahill costs $6.5K or less. The overall numbers believe he’s the top value on the slate, but recent performance has been so much less that I’m over-riding and dropping him lower. Well, actually, they see the pitcher above as the top value, but there are sample size issues there. There’s been a lot of rearranging today. The Royals are hoping that guy running a career high strikeout rate with a 55% ground ball rate is still in there somewhere. He’s testing patience though.
Value Tier Three
Justin Verlander has been pitching like it’s 2011 again after a pedestrian season up through the All Star break. It’s difficult to know if this is likely to last the rest of the year and the cost has gone up. The good news is that the Pirates matchup well for his problems (hard contact in the air), but not so much for his strength (strikeouts).
Alex Wood is the best contact manager on the slate. That part hasn’t changed. What has changed is that there is not more of it and not necessarily as much on the ground. He’s back below $10K now in an interesting spot in Arizona. The Diamondbacks should be better than their season long numbers against southpaws.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke is a high upside arm in a terrible spot. He could allow three bombs with 10 strikeouts, which we’ll take as long as they’re solo shots. He’s the highest priced FanDuel pitcher and $500 less than Gio Gonzalez on DraftKings.
Rick Porcello is a HR risk and his SwStr% has gotten dangerously low over the last month if he wants to maintain a league average strikeout rate. The Rays have power, but they could run up his strikeout count too.
Brandon Woodruff acquitted himself well in his first start. It was a high upside matchup, but a dangerous one too. His first one at home is a bit more balanced against the Twins. They have their faults and may not even be a league average offense, but they’ve been hot.
Mike Leake isn’t going to win you any contests on his own, but he’s cheap enough on DraftKings ($6.3K) that you can probably plug him into an SP2 spot where he won’t hurt you at home against the Royals.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window