Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 11th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-13 17:03:43

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

Pitcher	Opponent	Misc	Vegas

Monday, April 11th

PITCHER	TEAM	OPP	Seas	L21	H/A	Avg	Seas	L7	L/R	H/A	Avg	FP/Opp	PEN	PARK	ML	OppR
Jonathon Niese	PIT	DET			9.0	9.0			0.41	0.54	0.48	18.71	10	1.00	140	4.55
Justin Verlander	DET	PIT	24.0	24.0	9.8	19.3	2.86	2.86	0.68	0.73	1.78	10.80	22	1.00	-150	3.95
Yovani Gallardo	BAL	BOS	36.0	36.0	9.9	27.3	3.00	3.00	0.75	0.90	1.91	14.28	26	1.07	176	4.51
David Price	BOS	BAL	54.0	54.0	13.4	40.5	3.36	3.36	0.70	0.59	2.00	20.20	20	1.07	-186	3.99
Andrew Cashner	SDP	PHI			8.3	8.3			0.54	0.53	0.54	15.49	29	0.93	119	4.08
Aaron Nola	PHI	SDP							0.38	0.41	0.40		9	0.93	-129	3.42
Jose Quintana	CWS	MIN			9.7	9.7			0.29	0.46	0.37	26.01	8	1.12	-109	3.64
Kyle Gibson	MIN	CWS			8.8	8.8	2.48	2.48	0.45	0.36	1.44	6.10	14	1.12	-101	4.36
Taylor Jungmann	MIL	STL							0.45	0.45	0.45		15	1.10	155	4.03
Michael Wacha	STL	MIL			11.8	11.8			0.63	0.56	0.59	19.92	3	1.10	-165	3.47
Bud Norris	ATL	WAS			8.3	8.3	2.54	2.54	0.59	0.62	1.57	5.29	17	1.07	205	3.98
Max Scherzer	WAS	ATL	36.0	36.0	15.4	29.1	3.43	3.43	0.51	0.63	2.00	14.57	13	1.07	-225	3.52
Jarred Cosart	MIA	NYM			9.5	9.5			0.53	0.51	0.52	18.17	27	0.85	142	4.05
Steven Matz	NYM	MIA							0.58	0.45	0.51		6	0.85	-152	3.45
Brandon Finnegan	CIN	CHC			2.6	2.6	3.77	3.77	0.59	0.64	2.19	1.20	30	0.93	186	4.00
Jon Lester	CHC	CIN	42.0	42.0	13.4	32.5	4.18	4.18	0.80	0.71	2.47	13.15	7	0.93	-202	3.50
Chris Young	KCR	HOU	6.0		5.2	5.6	2.85	2.85	0.72	0.79	1.80	3.11	1	1.01	122	4.57
Collin McHugh	HOU	KCR			12.7	12.7			0.73	0.83	0.78	16.24	4	1.01	-132	3.93
Nick Tropeano	LAA	OAK					2.23	2.23	0.50	0.51	1.36		12	1.02	128	4.07
Sonny Gray	OAK	LAA			11.7	11.7	2.70	2.70	0.66	0.60	1.67	7.01	23	1.02	-138	3.43
Colby Lewis	TEX	SEA	21.0	21.0	9.9	17.3	2.58	2.58	0.41	0.44	1.51	11.50	19	0.83	155	3.78
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	TEX			11.3	11.3	3.77	3.77	0.48	0.49	2.13	5.32	16	0.83	-165	3.22

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. ATL) – Scherzer achieves All-in status against most teams in most situations (have to account for Denver), but putting him up against the punchless offense of the Braves seems almost unfair. His robust price tag ($13100 on DraftKings) reflects the perceived value gap between Scherzer and everyone else on the slate. That said, Scherzer faced Atlanta a week ago for his first start of the season, and the outing was solid yet somewhat pedestrian considering Scherzer’s upside and the Braves offensive futility – the Braves scored a league-low 573 runs last season, 40 fewer than the next weakest club.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. CIN) – Aside from Billy Hamilton swiping another five bags (as he did against Lester last June 15), this should be a relatively easy game for Lester. Most of the Reds firepower is concentrated on the left side of the plate with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and though Votto doesn’t carry a very harsh platoon split, Lester’s south paw gives him an advantage in these matchups. It’s worth it to roster both Lester and Hamilton today, despite the fact that they’re facing each other, because Hamilton is unlikely to hit for any power that would be detrimental to Lester’s final line. He shut down the Angels in his first start of the year, with just four strikeouts but also just four baserunners and a lone run allowed on the evening.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

david-price-300x200

David Price BOS (vs. BAL) – Price will attempt to put an end to the league’s final unblemished record, and he is well familiar with his opponent considering that Price has pitched against Baltimore as a starter for three different interdivision rivals. He looked strong in his first start of the season, striking out 10 Indians across 6.0 innings, giving up two runs in the Red Sox victory. The Orioles are a feast-or-famine offense, and they could either bust out the whooping stick in defiance of Price (as they did to Chris Archer last week), or they could go down in a flail of swings, resulting in a second consecutive game of double-digit strikeouts for Boston’s new ace.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. LAA) – He should be fully repaired after a stomach bug took him out of action for a few days last week. His first start of the year did not go well despite the fact that he gave up just one run in the ballgame, as Gray walked four batters in his 7.0 innings of work. He was spared by a low hit rate, which frankly we should come to expect from him at this point, and since he’s not much in the strikeout department his value is shaped by balls in play. He’ll face the Angels at home, where he earns the benefit of the expansive foul territory to help shave an out here or there.

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jose Quintana CHW (at MIN) – The Twins are quickly becoming the go-to spot for opposing pitchers to rack up the strikeouts, and they currently sit with the second-highest total of batter Ks in baseball. The top team on that list is Toronto, and they’re doing a bit more on the offensive side of the ball to justify fading any pitcher that the Jays are facing. The Twins, on the other hand, offer a combination of a slumping lineup and high-strikeout hitters to create an excellent opportunity for opposing hurlers, such that pitchers with modest K totals – like Quintana – receive a boost up the rankings. He struck out seven Athletics in his last turn, with two runs allowed over 5.2 innings pitched.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. MIL) – Wacha faced the Pirates in his first start of the year, and his division rivals collected hits off the right-hander like they were going out of style, with 10 total safeties over 4.1 innings. The Pirates crossed the plate five times (four of the runs were earned), and Wacha managed three strikeouts against one walk in the outing. He should have an easier time with today’s interdivision matchup, as the Brewers are built on the surgically-repaired back of Ryan Braun, and little else.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. TEX) – Following Iwakuma’s first start, which was highly anticipated due to medical concerns, much of the focus was on his relatively clean outing, with two runs allowed over 5.0 innings. There were some flags, however, as the Mariners decided to pull the plug after just 90 pitches, he walked three batters in the five innings despite allowing a microscopic 1.4 BB/9 over the past three seasons combined, and his average fastball was just 88.2 mph. Don’t let the name value mask the fact that Iwakuma does not appear to have his past effectiveness.

aaron-nola-300x200

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. SD) – Nola was an underrated pitcher last season who might have flown under the radar because of Phillies place in the standings, but it’s hard to ignore what he did in his first outing of 2016: one run over 7.0 innings (on a homer), with total four hits, no walks and eight strikeouts. Granted, he was facing the soft lineup of the Reds, but he gets another easy road this time around with a start against the Padres. High-altitude performance aside, the Friars have struggled mightily to get on the board in this young season.

Steven Matz NYM (vs. MIA) – If there’s one thing that Matz does well, it’s keep runs off the scoreboard. The southpaw holds an ERA of 2.25 in 380 innings of work on the farm, sustaining a K-per-inning and about three walks per nine that held firm as he climbed the minor-league ladder. The Mets are likely to closely monitor his workload, as he has a career-high of just 140 innings pitched and that was back in 2014. It’s less of an issue for the DFS gamer, but it helps to know that the manager could have a quick hook for Matz throughout the season in an effort to keep his innings down.

Andrew Cashner SD (at PHI) – Cashner has the stuff to dominate and the delivery to portend future command, but the results continue to elude him. He was hit for five runs and eight baserunners over four frames in his first turn of the year, that being against the Dodgers, and today’s start feels like a do-or-die for fantasy owners – if he can’t spin a good game against Philly, then he can’t really be trusted to pitch against anyone.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. PIT)

Taylor Jungmann MIL (at STL)

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. PHI) – Well, it can’t get much worse than last week’s six-run, one-out performance. There’s nowhere to go but up.

Chris Young KC (at HOU)

Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. OAK)

Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. CHW)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (at BOS)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Colby Lewis TEX (at SEA)

Jarred Cosart MIA (at NYM)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at CHC)

Jon Niese PIT (at DET) – ‘Troit Tigers love lean lefties.

Bud Norris ATL (at WAS) – Over/under on Harper homers is 1.5.