Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 18th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | TOR | BOS | 330 | 3.90 | 3.88 | 1.30 | 30.8% | 20.4% | 6.9% | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TOR | 283.2 | 4.51 | 3.75 | 1.31 | 33.3% | 19.8% | 6.4% | 0.73 | 1.44 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | PHI | 150 | 3.24 | 2.95 | 1.05 | 27.5% | 5.1% | 1.14 | 1.38 | |
| Eickhoff | PHI | NYM | 51 | 2.65 | 3.56 | 1.04 | 24.1% | 6.4% | 0.88 | 0.95 | |
| Lyles | COL | CIN | 175.2 | 4.56 | 4.26 | 1.40 | 58.3% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 0.72 | 2.01 |
| Straily | CIN | COL | 68.2 | 6.42 | 4.37 | 1.47 | 14.3% | 19.9% | 10.4% | 1.57 | 0.80 |
| Roark | WAS | MIA | 309.2 | 3.40 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 52.6% | 16.4% | 5.1% | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| Fernandez | MIA | WAS | 116.1 | 2.71 | 2.51 | 1.07 | 75.0% | 31.7% | 5.7% | 0.62 | 1.34 |
| Santiago | LAA | CWS | 308 | 3.65 | 4.45 | 1.30 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 1.29 | 0.58 |
| Rodon | CWS | LAA | 139.1 | 3.75 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 0.71 | 1.57 | |
| Anderson | MIL | MIN | 267 | 4.18 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 40.0% | 19.2% | 7.1% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Hughes | MIN | MIL | 365 | 3.90 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Lackey | CHC | STL | 416 | 3.27 | 3.77 | 1.24 | 57.9% | 19.6% | 5.8% | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| Leake | STL | CHC | 406.1 | 3.70 | 3.82 | 1.21 | 45.0% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 1.99 |
| Bradley | ARI | SFG | 35.2 | 5.80 | 5.28 | 1.63 | 14.3% | 13.7% | 0.76 | 2.10 | |
| Peavy | SFG | ARI | 313.1 | 3.68 | 4.18 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 6.8% | 1.01 | 0.89 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at PHI) – Meet the new hotness. Syndergaard will be highly owned today, and for good cause. He has 21 strikeouts and just two walks in his first 13.0 innings of work this season and is already throwing harder than he was last year, once again throwing the hardest average fastball in the game among starting pitchers (98.7 mph on average). At 42 percent, Thor’s K rate is even more impressive than his per-inning marks because he is facing so few batters per frame. His 0.67 ERA is unrepeatably low, yet diehard followers of DIPS theory will point to his MLB-leading 0.37 FIP and say that he is right on track. The Phillies haven’t scored more than three runs in a ballgame in over a week, and have only done so twice this season, topping out at six runs in one game. It’s almost too easy of a choice… which might be the only thing that gives me pause.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. WAS) – Fern came off his 13-strikeout performance in the second game of the season with a modest 5 Ks in his second, as the two starts had very different shapes yet featured the same problem with pitch efficiency. He has yet to finished the sixth inning in one of his starts, and though he could bust out with an insane game at any moment, the repercussion of falling in love with strikeouts is the frequency of deep counts that result. Fantasy gamers will typically take the trade-off if the result is the K-heavy performance of his first game, but it becomes a burden if he’s not striking out copious amounts of hitters. The matchup of Fern versus Tanner Roark offers a stark contrast in approach on the mound.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. LAA) – The walks came back with a vengeance in his last outing; After giving away just one free pass in his initial start to 2016, Rodon walked five Twins in his last turn, but he walked away unscathed due to the inability of Minnesota hitters to square up his pitches. He gave up zero runs and three hits, none of which went for extra bases, as the next double or triple hit off of Rodon will be the first. His task in today’s outing is supposedly made easier by the slow starts of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, as the disparity between the upper- and lower-halves of the Angels lineup is stark, but when talking about two of the greatest hitters of our generation then we have to leave room for either to break out of his slump at any given time.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | 0.379 | 5.17 | 0.317 | 3.99 | 0.200 | 0.701 | 0.305 | 3.82 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 20.4% |
| Buchholz | 0.351 | 5.12 | 0.313 | 4.99 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.320 | 3.47 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 19.8% |
| Syndergaard | 0.262 | 2.77 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.279 | 3.25 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 27.5% | ||
| Eickhoff | 0.203 | 1.47 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.257 | 3.25 | 0.211 | 0.03 | 24.1% | ||
| Lyles | 0.372 | 3.39 | 0.295 | 5.14 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 4.10 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 15.8% |
| Straily | 0.337 | 4.97 | 0.372 | 8.01 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.286 | 5.16 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 19.9% |
| Roark | 0.299 | 3.33 | 0.279 | 3.07 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.278 | 3.91 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Fernandez | 0.301 | 1.85 | 0.188 | 2.71 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.313 | 2.21 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 31.7% |
| Santiago | 0.274 | 2.34 | 0.324 | 4.18 | 0.194 | 0.529 | 0.267 | 4.57 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Rodon | 0.350 | 3.92 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.315 | 3.87 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 22.9% | ||
| Anderson | 0.314 | 3.76 | 0.341 | 4.48 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.306 | 4.17 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 19.2% |
| Hughes | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.342 | 4.48 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.315 | 3.52 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 18.6% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.296 | 3.43 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.300 | 3.67 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Leake | 0.352 | 3.91 | 0.288 | 3.40 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.280 | 4.03 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Bradley | 0.420 | 10.29 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.297 | 4.96 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 14.3% | ||
| Peavy | 0.334 | 4.45 | 0.316 | 3.26 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.280 | 4.03 | 0.246 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. NYM) – He has a funny name and didn’t have much in the way of prospect status on his way up the minor-league ladder, but Eickhoff has ridden his low-90s fastball and mid-70s curve to excellent results. He was also effective in a short sample last season, and with 10 major-league starts now under belt, Eickhoff sports a 2.43 ERA, 61 strikeouts and 15 walks ins 63.0 innings. This season’s numbers might be inflated a bit, buoyed by his start against the Padres that featured nine strikeouts, no walks, no runs and just four hits allowed in 7.0 innings. He has had better numbers thus far in the majors than he did at any point in the minors, allowing the likelihood of regression rearing its ugly head, but his stuff is legit and Eickhoff has the makings of a quality starter at the highest level.
John Lackey CHC (at STL) – Lackey gets to face his old teammates as a new member of the rival Cubs, so there are unlikely to be any surprises as far as what he brings to the table. Lackey was knocked for six runs in his first start of the year but then came back for a quality start against the Reds. Lackey’s all about the floor rather than the ceiling, but that floor lowers a bit due to his opponent.
Archie Bradley ARI (at SF) – There’s a big gap between Lackey and Bradley, but they are very different types of pitchers who offer nearly-opposite profiles; Lackey is the relatively-safe veteran facing his old team, while Bradley is the volatile former phenom pitching in the pitcher-friendly park. Bradley threw a six-inning gem in his first minor-league start of the season for the Reno Aces, allowing two hits and three walks against seven strikeouts. The next outing was a disaster as Bradley was yanked before the first inning was over, yielding three hits, two walks, and HBP and three runs in two-thirds of an inning. He only threw 40 pitches in that April 12 contest, so he is theoretically fresh for his turn in San Francisco, but the stress induced from throwing 40 pitches in a single inning explains the timing of his getting yanked in the game and also throws a massive caveat to the “fresh” angle. Keep in mind that the Giants have struck out the fewest times in the NL this season, which could lower the ceiling of Bradley’s fantasy potential in this outing.
Hector Santiago LAA (at CHW) – From here on out, the choices are just dangerous. Santiago has made a habit of having an ERA that looks far better than his FIP, and he is staying true to form in this young season, with a 3.95 ERA but a 5.19 FIP. Santiago has given up three homers already in 13.2 innings of work, with 10 strikeouts against three walks. Expect the home run to be an issue again tonight, with the flyball-heavy Santiago sitting in a homer-friendly ballpark against a lineup with a couple of legit bomb threats. The silver lining is that the White Sox power hitters are slumping, as Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier have combined for a .187 batting average and .352 slug this season.
Mike Leake STL (vs. CHC)
Chase Anderson MIL (at MIN) – Rostering pitchers against the Twins is starting to look like rostering hitters in Coors. Anderson brings a pristine ERA into this game, and the zeroes might just remain after this start.
Tanner Roark WAS (at MIA)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. MIL)
Jake Peavy SF (vs. ARI) – Peavy can be forgiven for the rough start in Colorado, but he was similarly hammered at sea level in his first start (versus the Dodgers) and now has given up an astounding 21 hits in 9.0 innings pitched.
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. TOR)
J.A. Happ TOR (at BOS) – There’s only one game on the morning slate today, and it’s chock-full of potential fantasy value – just not on the mound.
Dan Straily CIN (vs. COL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jordan Lyles COL (at CIN)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window