Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-26 07:33:36

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gonzalez	CWS	TOR	144.2	4.91	4.51	1.40	40.0%	17.5%	8.2%	1.49	1.13
Stroman	TOR	CWS	48.1	2.79	3.51	0.97	66.7%	15.9%	6.4%	0.56	3.44
Graveman	OAK	DET	127	3.90	4.38	1.37		15.4%	7.5%	1.13	1.81
Zimmermann	DET	OAK	214.2	3.44	3.90	1.19	52.6%	19.4%	5.0%	1.01	1.15
Gausman	BAL	TBR	112.1	4.25	3.69	1.23	37.5%	21.9%	6.2%	1.36	1.17
Archer	TBR	BAL	227.1	3.40	3.09	1.19	55.0%	29.2%	7.9%	0.95	1.38
Porcello	BOS	ATL	184.1	4.93	3.65	1.33	55.6%	20.8%	5.1%	1.42	1.40
Teheran	ATL	BOS	217.2	4.22	4.27	1.32	70.0%	20.1%	8.8%	1.28	1.08
Iglesias	CIN	NYM	112	4.02	3.37	1.19		25.3%	6.9%	1.04	1.34
Syndergaard	NYM	CIN	163	3.04	2.81	1.04		28.6%	5.1%	1.05	1.44
Eovaldi	NYY	TEX	166	4.39	3.92	1.44	50.0%	18.8%	7.1%	0.76	1.87
Ramos	TEX	NYY	52.1	2.75	3.56	1.34		19.5%	6.8%	0.34	1.64
Salazar	CLE	MIN	196.1	3.30	3.37	1.12	12.5%	26.3%	7.4%	1.10	1.15
Milone	MIN	CLE	139.1	4.00	4.37	1.28	43.8%	16.5%	6.5%	1.36	1.24
Locke	PIT	COL	179	4.37	4.31	1.45	66.7%	17.1%	8.8%	0.80	2.05
Bettis	COL	PIT	133.1	4.05	4.12	1.38		19.4%	8.3%	0.88	1.62
Garcia	STL	ARI	144.2	2.43	3.28	1.01	28.6%	20.5%	6.0%	0.37	2.71
Greinke	ARI	STL	240	2.02	3.34	0.90	50.0%	23.3%	4.9%	0.64	1.43
Kennedy	KCR	LAA	182	4.01	3.58	1.25	47.6%	24.7%	7.2%	1.58	0.95
Richards	LAA	KCR	225	3.64	3.86	1.24	65.0%	20.8%	8.6%	0.84	1.99
Fister	HOU	SEA	113.2	4.51	4.43	1.41	58.3%	14.3%	5.3%	1.27	1.30
Walker	SEA	HOU	181.2	4.41	3.70	1.19		21.9%	5.6%	1.29	1.06
Chen	MIA	LAD	202.2	3.46	3.94	1.22	31.6%	19.3%	5.0%	1.29	1.05
Stripling	LAD	MIA	13.1	2.03	4.41	0.75		18.8%	10.4%	0.00	1.64
Pomeranz	SDP	SFG	97	3.62	3.68	1.19	25.0%	24.1%	9.2%	0.84	1.13
Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	234.1	3.03	3.04	1.05	47.6%	27.0%	4.9%	0.96	1.13

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. CIN) – Thor has struck out eight or more batters in each of his three starts this season, has kept the walks to a minimum (four total), and has yet to give up more than a single run in any start. He has scored at least 18.00 points on Fan Duel in each turn, at least 27.75 points in each game on DraftKings, and has taken a massive leap forward in performance during a time period in which many of the game’s top pitchers are going through a rough patch. The Reds have an offense with a solid core that thins out quickly as we drift away from the middle of the lineup, and Cincy has been struggling in the past seven days with just a ,499 OPS (lowest of the teams on today’s slate), a 27.2-percent strikeout rate (second-highest) and a league-low .223 wOBA over that stretch. The NL Cy Young picture currently includes Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard and then the field.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. SD) – Bumgarner is often mentioned among the aforementioned list of great pitchers who are struggling this season, but really his bumpy road was merely confined to the first start of the year, a game in which his delivery was slightly misaligned and he was trying to pitch through the flu. In this other three ballgames, Bummer has a K:BB of 23:3 in 18.0 innings with a 3.50 ERA. He gave up a pair of home runs against the Dodgers on Jackie Robinson Day which are currently making a heavy dent to his line of run prevention, but there is little reason to discount his services. Facing a weak-hitting Padres lineup is also encouraging, though the Pads have a couple of lefty-specific mashers (Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris) that could make life a bit tougher on Bumgarner. The salary structure at DraftKings is unfazed, vaulting Bumgarner to the top spot as the most expensive pitcher on today’s slate.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (at MIN) – The gruesome injury to Carlos Carrasco puts the onus on his rotation mates to step up, as the Indians were a chic preseason pick for a deep postseason run but suddenly find their prospects of the playoffs compromised, as pitching was the assumed vehicle that would take them to the promised land. The Twins have been a soft opponent, both this season and over the past week, but they’ve hit reasonably well at Target Field and Miguel Sano bat is starting to get hot, so don’t expect them to roll over. Salazar has been a night train over his first three starts, steamrolling over opponents with a 1.47 ERA and 23 strikeouts through 18.1 innings, though his nine walks allowed provide a glimpse into the downside. The pitch count has increased over his first three starts, and the 114 pitches from last start show that he can go deep into games, but consider that the Indians might tap the brakes a bit on his workload in this start.

Zack Greinke ARI (vs. STL) – Greinke is slowly getting back on track, if not on the accelerated line that took him straight the ERA title last season. He gave up 11 earned runs over his first couple of starts (both at home), but trips to the pitcher-friendly confines of San Diego and San Francisco have helped to bring his numbers into balance. Over those last two games, Greinke has allowed three runs over 14.0 innings (1.93 ERA) with a dozen strikeouts against three walks. He heads back home to face the Cards, and part of my pessimism for Greinke this season revolves around a home ballpark that encourages non-homer hits, so facing a high-scoring Cardinals club (second-most runs and second-highest runs-per-game in the majors) at Chase Field could reverse much of the work that he has done to fix his stat-line over the past couple of turns.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. OAK) – Zimmermann has a perfect 0.00 ERA through three starts this season, spinning 19.1 innings with 15 strikeouts and six walks. Aside from the ERA, none of his numbers really leap off the page, but the fact that the high-contact of approach of Zimmermann is working for him – despite a new team, new league and new home ballpark – following a career-worst season is a sign that the Tigers offseason acquisition is righting the ship. Temper expectations for the K count, but Comerica Park functions to depress homers (Zimm’s big issue last year was with the longball) and the A’s sit on the bottom-third among offenses this season with a .700 OPS and .305 wOBA as a team, so the context lines up well for Zimm today even if his ERA has nowhere to go but up.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. HOU) – Walker was extremely frustrating to own last season, with a rollercoaster campaign that infuriated managers in DFS and season-long leagues alike. He has started with a bang in 2016, though, with a 1.50 ERA across his first three starts of the season. Walker has pitched exactly 6.0 innings in each of the three games, taking between 100 and 110 pitches to do so, allowing two or fewer runs in each turn and posting a K:BB ratio of 14:2 through his 18.0 innings this season. The Astros are a hacktastic ballclub that led the AL in Ks last season and have struck out in 23.3-percent of their plate appearances in 2016, another league-leading mark that ratchets up the ceiling for Walker in today’s game. The Astros have an otherwise-formidable offense with a number of players who are raking out of the gate – Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Correa – so this is a high-beta play that might fly under the radar a bit due to the heavy concentration of strong pitchers available.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gonzalez	0.357	4.87	0.332	4.95	0.263	0.782	0.295	5.01	0.268	0.01	17.5%
Stroman	0.250	3.48	0.264	2.08	0.250	0.693	0.225	3.56	0.2	0.02	15.9%
Graveman	0.318	3.00	0.328	4.70	0.268	0.735	0.292	4.53	0.265	0.01	15.4%
Zimmermann	0.328	3.76	0.266	3.11	0.247	0.699	0.296	3.72	0.255	0.01	19.4%
Gausman	0.280	2.98	0.358	5.71	0.246	0.699	0.288	4.10	0.248	0.01	21.9%
Archer	0.271	3.41	0.297	3.40	0.256	0.762	0.305	3.10	0.227	0.01	29.2%
Porcello	0.337	4.75	0.342	5.14	0.256	0.682	0.325	4.24	0.279	0.01	20.8%
Teheran	0.392	5.71	0.255	3.00	0.262	0.735	0.285	4.52	0.248	0.01	20.1%
Iglesias	0.328	4.93	0.285	3.30	0.243	0.707	0.297	3.58	0.237	0.01	25.3%
Syndergaard	0.295	3.51	0.252	2.45	0.248	0.702	0.285	3.02	0.22	0.01	28.6%
Eovaldi	0.349	4.63	0.299	4.21	0.259	0.736	0.335	3.57	0.281	0.01	18.8%
Ramos	0.300	1.38	0.308	4.10	0.255	0.743	0.335	3.02	0.271	0.00	19.5%
Salazar	0.301	3.83	0.280	2.81	0.242	0.696	0.275	3.60	0.219	0.01	26.3%
Milone	0.289	4.24	0.333	3.93	0.261	0.723	0.277	4.54	0.255	0.01	16.5%
Locke	0.340	5.18	0.321	4.13	0.255	0.686	0.313	4.07	0.269	0.01	17.1%
Bettis	0.315	3.59	0.342	4.52	0.266	0.736	0.307	3.89	0.259	0.01	19.4%
Garcia	0.253	3.06	0.243	2.30	0.259	0.738	0.260	2.83	0.212	0.01	20.5%
Greinke	0.253	2.05	0.222	2.00	0.262	0.746	0.239	2.89	0.195	0.01	23.3%
Kennedy	0.344	4.00	0.332	4.01	0.247	0.702	0.294	4.37	0.247	0.01	24.7%
Richards	0.274	3.27	0.319	4.09	0.264	0.729	0.280	3.77	0.234	0.01	20.8%
Fister	0.335	4.55	0.358	4.47	0.240	0.714	0.314	4.56	0.289	0.01	14.3%
Walker	0.307	4.00	0.311	4.93	0.249	0.751	0.290	4.02	0.249	0.01	21.9%
Chen	0.252	1.40	0.346	4.16	0.263	0.751	0.293	4.09	0.259	0.01	19.3%
Stripling					0.256	0.683	0.147	2.88	0.116	0.09	18.8%
Pomeranz	0.219	2.56	0.316	4.13	0.264	0.702	0.270	3.57	0.215	0.00	24.1%
Bumgarner	0.246	2.66	0.282	3.11	0.242	0.682	0.286	3.03	0.224	0.01	27.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. CHW) – Stroman is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. The tiny right-hander looks like a misfit on the field, like Steve Nash looked on a basketball court, and the results are similarly dominant. Stroman doesn’t rack up the Ks, a factor which limits his fantasy value, as he specializes in initiating weak contact with a wicked two-seam fastball that bores in on the hands of right0handed batters. Pitchers his size are not supposed to have such elite stuff – but he does – and they’re not supposed to be able to withstand the workload of a starting pitcher – the jury’s still out on that one – but Stroman is all about bucking the trends. The lack of Ks compromises his DFS value, however, and the White Sox have been winning games out of the gate despite the fact that Jose Abreu has yet to get going, so the context is not as favorable. It’s a game worth watching, though whether Stroman is worth rostering is another issue altogether.

Chris Archer TB (vs. BAL) – Archer is off his game. Now that Captain Obvious has left the room, we can dig a bit deeper, as Archer delivery has been misaligned and his velocity has been compromised in the early-going this season. The mechanical issue – he is striding straight at the plate but does best with a somewhat open stride, slightly angled toward the left-hand batter’s box – actually stems back to last season, and the functional result is a lower release point that has been inconsistent for Archer. He was a shell of himself in the second half of last season when compared to the first (halves defined by splitting his season in 17-start increments) with a walk rate that nearly doubled, and his positioning in April of this year is closer to his second-half performance than his stellar work of the first 17 turns of last season. The velo is also down about 1.5 mph, and though I will often give pitchers a pass on velocity in the early-going, the fact that Archer was throwing max speed in April of 2015 throws another wrench into expectations. The right-hander has all-in talent, but the combination of recent struggles and a tough opponent knock Archer into the call zone for today’s slate.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. KC) – Richards threw 118 pitches in his last start, and though the veteran will likely shoulder a heavy workload this season, it would also make sense for manager Mike Scioscia to have a quicker hook this time around. The expected strikeouts will be limited due to his opponent, as the Royals K rate of 16.2-percent is the lowest in baseball for the third consecutive season. The Royals are all about contact, so Richards might not beat himself too badly with walks but is also facing the possibility of an early exit if too many balls in play find pasture.

Jaime Garcia STL (at ARI) – When did Garcia become a strikeout machine? The volatile pitcher has been a source of many differing opinions throughout his career, but few have lined up to call him a bat-missing aficionado, with a career rate of just 7.2 K/9, but this season he has whiffed 26 batters in 20.0 innings of work, including 13 strikeouts in his one-hit shutout of Milwaukee on April 14. Prior to that start, his single-game high was 10 strikeouts in a ballgame, and that was back in 2014, so odds are that it was a single-game fluke and that Garcia’s K count will be grounded in Arizona.

Raisel Iglesias CIN (at NYM)

Rick Porcello BOS (at ATL)

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. BOS)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at LAD)

Ian Kennedy KC (at LAA)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at TB)

Drew Pomeranz SD (at SF)

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. MIA)

Nate Eovaldi NYY (at TEX)

Doug Fister HOU (at SEA)

Tommy Milone MIN (vs. CLE)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at DET)