Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 15th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-16 02:25:28

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Pomeranz	BOS	CLE	208.1	3.33	3.80	1.17	25.0%	25.4%	9.8%	0.91	1.23
Tomlin	CLE	BOS	191	3.53	3.94	1.05	23.1%	19.0%	3.1%	1.84	1.03
Dickey	TOR	NYY	357	4.18	4.76	1.25	47.6%	15.4%	7.6%	1.29	1.17
Green	NYY	TOR	27.1	4.94	3.62	1.46		24.4%	8.4%	2.63	1.81
Kennedy	KCR	DET	295.2	4.17	3.74	1.25	47.6%	24.6%	7.6%	1.74	0.88
Norris	DET	KCR	78	3.81	4.30	1.29		19.3%	7.2%	1.38	0.88
Phelps	MIA	CIN	170.2	3.80	3.97	1.28	42.9%	20.9%	7.8%	0.79	1.18
Finnegan	CIN	MIA	177.1	4.21	4.87	1.35		18.6%	11.4%	1.62	1.18
Smyly	TBR	SDP	197	4.39	3.70	1.26	50.0%	25.0%	6.7%	1.55	0.71
Detwiler	OAK	TEX	63	7.14	5.34	1.98		14.2%	12.9%	1.57	1.35
Perez	TEX	OAK	218	4.38	4.84	1.44	37.5%	12.3%	8.8%	0.66	2.27
Scherzer	WAS	COL	392.1	2.80	2.72	0.92	60.0%	31.6%	4.8%	1.17	0.75
De La Rosa	COL	WAS	240	4.58	4.38	1.44	40.0%	19.6%	10.2%	1.09	1.72
Colon	NYM	ARI	322	3.89	4.15	1.22	42.1%	16.3%	3.4%	1.17	1.22
Ray	ARI	NYM	248.2	4.16	3.76	1.42	33.3%	24.9%	8.8%	0.94	1.36
Hernandez	SEA	LAA	290.1	3.53	3.71	1.21	81.0%	21.8%	7.9%	1.05	2.03
Nolasco	LAA	SEA	168	5.57	4.30	1.42	16.7%	18.2%	5.9%	1.29	1.12
Vogelsong	PIT	SFG	162.2	4.43	4.51	1.44	52.6%	18.2%	9.7%	1.11	1.27
Moore	SFG	PIT	205	4.43	4.53	1.36		19.2%	8.4%	1.27	0.89

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

There is nobody even remotely close to Raise-worthy on today’s slate. Max Scherzer would typically qualify, but he’s pitching in the hurler’s hell of Coors Field. Felix Hernandez has been off his game in general this season, plus he is facing an Angels team that rarely strikes out. The rest of the pitchers on slate have never sniffed All-In territory, so it’s a day to roll the dice on a pitcher with flaws.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Max Scherzer WAS (at COL) – The rare example of a pitcher getting the Raise treatment despite pitching in Coors. Scherzer’s status stems from a combination of his own prowess, the non-zero frequency of pitchers having great games in Coors this season and the lack of available alternatives on one of the thinnest slates of the 2016 season. Scherzer is the best pitcher available, by far, but he is playing in the worst possible venue. Scherzer has started four career games at Coors Field, totaling just 22.0 innings across the four starts, with a 5.32 ERA but a 26:6 K:BB ratio. A pitcher with a penchant for homers allowed is not a good fit for Coors, and though Scherzer has limited the deep flies to just four bombs in his last eight starts – a stretch that includes seven games of 7.0 or more innings pitched – he could fall prey to the inevitable if he leaves too many pitches up in the strike zone.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at LAA) – The Angels are tough to strike out, and Hernandez found out how tough they can be when he faced them two starts ago, allowing four runs thanks to two homers despite allowing just three hits overall through 8.0 innings of work. The other two of his last three starts have been just as stingy with the hits – he has allowed just eight hits over is past 20 innings – but any optimism generated by the low hit counts is easily nullified by the concern over his exorbitant walk totals, which include 12 free passes over the same three ballgames. If King Felix is not on your roster today, then make sure that Mike Trout is. Trout has an insane slash-line of .373/.402/.720 with six career homers against Hernandez, and his 82 plate appearances head-to-head are tied for the sixth-most that the King has against any player.

Ian Kennedy KC (at DET) – Kennedy can be a frustrating pitcher to roster, what with his background of regular beatings, but the guys has maintained a solid K rate all season (132 Ks in 132.2 innings) and is coming off a fantastic run of ballgames. In his last three outings, Kennedy has compiled a 0.93 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, though his individual performances during that stretch have been less than pristine. He struck out just two batters in his last turn, and though he only allowed one hit over six frames in his previous start, it also came with four walks. He has given up either four or six hits (exactly) in the other seven of his previous eight games, but the runs allowed have ranged from one to seven runs while the strikeouts have ranged from two to ten depending on the outing. He has given up just one homer across his last four starts, a key distinction for a pitcher whose 27 home runs are tied for the most in the majors (Josh Tomlin), and a Detroit lineup that was recently restacked with J.D. Martinez could be primed to test out the fences at Comerica Park.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. SD) – The Padres dealt away much of their anti-southpaw power when they traded Matt Kemp to the Braves, and though many of the recent replacements have been doing a great job, the troika of Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski and Ryan Schimpf have mostly done their mashing against right-handed pitchers, with their performance against southpaws generally lacking. Smyly has been solid in the run-prevention department for four straight starts, running a 2.52 ERA with a 10-K game over that stretch, including six or more innings with two or fewer runs allowed in each start. The problem has actually been the strikeout, as despite the glamour of the double-digit game, Smyly has counterbalanced that performance with merely two strikeouts against Toronto in his last start and a single K against the A’s three starts prior. The Padres are a more whiff-heavy team in general, especially when compared to the KC ballclub that Smyly pitched so well against two starts ago, so he’s a good bet to finish near the top of the SP heap.

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. NYM) – Ray’s value lies completely in his strikeouts.He has recorded 11.2 K/9 this season (27.5 percent), including a recent three-start string in which he struck out an astounding 30 hitters over just 16.2 innings. The problem is that he also gave up 17 runs over that same stretch (though “only” 13 of the runs were earned), despite facing relatively mundane offenses of the Reds, Nats and Brewers. He faced these Mets in his last turn, a game that only included four strikeouts but was otherwise one of Ray’s best starts of the season, as he pitched 7.0 scoreless innings with three hits and no walks allowed in the contest. From a DFS perspective, the zero-run outing was only slightly more valuable than his games of copious amounts of Ks and runs, and Ray has a pretty substantial floor for a pitcher with a 4.57 ERA on the season, considering that he has scored at least 13.85 points on DraftKings in each of his last 11 starts.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Pomeranz	0.234	1.74	0.294	4.00	0.267	0.737	0.261	3.62	0.207	0.00	25.4%
Tomlin	0.258	2.63	0.343	4.32	0.272	0.771	0.246	4.71	0.238	0.01	19.0%
Dickey	0.313	3.91	0.329	4.41	0.247	0.724	0.262	4.80	0.246	0.00	15.4%
Green	0.470	6.39	0.280	3.68	0.257	0.777	0.306	5.91	0.275	0.00	24.4%
Kennedy	0.341	4.44	0.327	3.92	0.269	0.746	0.283	4.71	0.243	0.00	24.6%
Norris	0.375	4.58	0.316	3.55	0.272	0.733	0.283	4.49	0.252	0.01	19.3%
Phelps	0.320	4.10	0.283	3.56	0.248	0.708	0.301	3.59	0.248	0.00	20.9%
Finnegan	0.312	2.72	0.334	4.69	0.274	0.740	0.247	5.44	0.231	0.00	18.6%
Perdomo	0.371	7.34	0.394	6.36	0.243	0.711	0.379	4.83	0.333	0.00	16.2%
Smyly	0.302	4.83	0.327	4.27	0.254	0.726	0.301	4.16	0.251	0.01	25.0%
Detwiler	0.289	3.16	0.477	9.88	0.261	0.744	0.356	6.20	0.323	0.00	14.2%
Perez	0.242	1.99	0.344	5.00	0.255	0.716	0.300	4.22	0.273	0.00	12.3%
Scherzer	0.293	2.96	0.220	2.63	0.271	0.779	0.256	2.98	0.197	0.01	31.6%
De La Rosa	0.314	5.13	0.343	4.58	0.263	0.774	0.301	4.45	0.256	0.00	19.6%
Colon	0.318	3.69	0.307	4.09	0.262	0.734	0.298	3.95	0.27	0.00	16.3%
Ray	0.310	3.38	0.337	4.45	0.246	0.731	0.337	3.64	0.261	0.01	24.9%
Hernandez	0.308	3.90	0.295	3.15	0.257	0.721	0.278	3.99	0.233	0.00	21.8%
Nolasco	0.320	4.28	0.368	6.80	0.249	0.737	0.328	4.26	0.288	0.00	18.2%
Vogelsong	0.384	7.27	0.294	2.31	0.263	0.734	0.295	4.48	0.257	0.00	18.2%
Moore	0.306	4.97	0.331	4.24	0.254	0.720	0.294	4.54	0.258	0.01	19.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Matt Moore SF (vs. PIT) – Moore’s first two turns as a Giant have been remarkably similar. Each game consisted of two runs and three hits despite zero homers surrendered over 6.0 frames, with seven Ks in each outing but a walk total that was far too high. The walks are the only thing that has differed over his last two stat-lines, with six walks allowed in his first start and five walks allowed the last time around, but the lack of control is a concern for a pitcher who didn’t walk more than four batters in any of his previous 21 starts before his trade to the National League. On a more positive note, Moore has lasted at least 6.0 innings in his last 12 consecutive turns, 10 of which included the fewer than three earned runs necessary to qualify as quality starts. That string won’t last much longer unless Moore can get his release point under control.

David Phelps MIA (at CIN) – The rates look fantastic, and any pitcher who twirls a scoreless start in Colorado deserves our attention, but caveats abound in rostering Phelps. A converted reliever, Phelps was just moved to the rotation two turns ago and has yet to pitch more than 5.0 frames in a game (the Colorado start only went 4.1 innings), as the Marlins are stretching out the right-hander for full-time work. He did get up to 91 pitches in his last start, and the overall stat-line (2.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 11.0 K/9) paints a pretty picture of his potential tonight against the Reds, but tread lightly as a dip in performance might be predicated by a low pitch count.

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (at SF) – The 39-year-old just keeps plugging away. Used mostly as a reliever by Pittsburgh this season, Vogelsong came back from the DL on August 4 (an ugly HBP resulted in an eye injury that robbed him of two and a half months) with a sterling start against the Braves, twirling 6.0 three-hit innings of one-run baseball, and he followed up that turn with another 6.0 frames against the Padres, this one with zero earned runs allowed but the same three hits surrendered. He needed only 75 pitches to complete six full frames in the Padre game and took just 83 throws in the game prior, so even though his stamina is still getting built to handle a starter’s workload, he has been able to chew up innings with optimum efficiency. He’ll face his former club for the first time in tonight’s ballgame.

R.A. Dickey TOR (at NYY) – When things are going well, then Dickey can give a team 7.0 or more innings quality baseball, with enough strikeouts to keep the fantasy score afloat. The problem is that those starts are fewer and further between these days, and the volatility of knuckleballers precludes him from being a trustworthy choice for a roster. He has given up four or more runs in four of his last five starts, giving up six homers in that time (though none in his last two turns). He has also walked multiple hitters in four of those five games, offsetting a more modest hit count. His 26 homers allowed is right behind Kennedy and Tomlin on the list for most round-trippers surrendered this season, and though the Yankees jettisoned some of their power over the trade deadline, the fact that they called up some youthful power puts Dickey’s expected stat-line in jeopardy. His opponent and today’s exceptionally weak slate are the only factors that keep Dickey ranked even this high.

Bartolo Colon NYM (at ARI)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. MIA)

Daniel Norris DET (vs. KC)

Ross Detwiler OAK (at TEX)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. OAK)