Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, June 27th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazmir | LAD | PIT | 260.2 | 3.56 | 4.05 | 1.23 | 63.2% | 21.7% | 8.2% | 1.10 | 1.13 |
| Liriano | PIT | LAD | 260 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 1.32 | 12.5% | 25.1% | 10.5% | 1.00 | 1.84 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | WAS | 235 | 2.76 | 2.75 | 1.02 | 29.1% | 4.6% | 0.88 | 1.57 | |
| Ross | WAS | NYM | 154.1 | 3.38 | 3.90 | 1.14 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 0.82 | 1.45 | |
| Chi Gonzalez | TEX | NYY | 67 | 3.90 | 5.59 | 1.21 | 10.7% | 11.4% | 0.81 | 1.56 | |
| Nova | NYY | TEX | 154.1 | 4.96 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 25.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 1.34 | 1.78 |
| Rodriguez | BOS | TBR | 142.1 | 4.30 | 4.39 | 1.33 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 1.20 | 1.14 | |
| Snell | TBR | BOS | |||||||||
| Straily | CIN | CHC | 95.1 | 3.97 | 4.59 | 1.24 | 14.3% | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Bauer | CLE | ATL | 251.1 | 4.23 | 4.16 | 1.29 | 38.5% | 22.5% | 9.9% | 1.04 | 1.07 |
| Gant | ATL | CLE | 22.2 | 4.37 | 4.08 | 1.41 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 0.79 | 1.00 | |
| Wainwright | STL | KCR | 112.2 | 3.99 | 4.21 | 1.24 | 84.2% | 17.3% | 5.6% | 0.64 | 1.48 |
| Duffy | KCR | STL | 190.2 | 3.82 | 4.16 | 1.30 | 57.1% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 0.97 |
| Estrada | TOR | COL | 268.1 | 2.95 | 4.56 | 1.02 | 27.8% | 19.4% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 0.65 |
| Gray | COL | TOR | 106 | 4.92 | 3.55 | 1.35 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 1.02 | 1.54 | |
| Velasquez | PHI | ARI | 117.1 | 3.99 | 3.62 | 1.27 | 26.8% | 8.8% | 1.00 | 0.73 | |
| Ray | ARI | PHI | 202.2 | 3.86 | 4.00 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 23.0% | 9.3% | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| McHugh | HOU | LAA | 281 | 4.16 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 20.4% | 6.1% | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | HOU | 209.1 | 4.47 | 3.80 | 1.26 | 44.4% | 21.9% | 5.7% | 1.46 | 0.96 |
| Mengden | OAK | SFG | 12 | 2.25 | 4.10 | 1.25 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Samardzija | SFG | OAK | 308.2 | 4.40 | 4.12 | 1.24 | 60.0% | 18.5% | 5.4% | 1.14 | 1.09 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at CIN) – He leads the majors in ERA at 1.74, within a hair of last season’s seemingly-unrepeatable 1.77 mark. He also leads the majors in home run rate, giving up just three bombs in 98.0 innings. His win total (11) and hit rate (5.6 H/9) both lead the NL. The walks are up above average, but the extra free passes have done nothing to harm his bottom line. Meanwhile, the strikeouts have been on the upswing, as he stayed within the range of 5-8 strikeouts for each of his first seven turns this season, but has struck out double-digit batters in two of his last four games and has whiffed 63 batters in just 50.0 frames over his last eight starts. Arrieta no-hit the Reds when he faced them on April 21, and one wonders if another line of zeroes in forthcoming.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at WAS) – Pitchers in the All-In category are supposed to come without warts, and the recent scare(s) with Thor’s right elbow keep him from joining Arrieta at the top of today’s heap. He has only given up more than three earned runs once in a start this season, and his propensity to last through the sixth frame has led to 12 quality starts in the 14 games that he has started on the mound, with one of the misses coming as the result of a third-inning ejection. The one time he missed? It was four earned runs over 5.2 innings, just missing the QS in both directions. Syndergaard skunked Washington the last time that he faced them, striking out 10 batters against five hits and zero walks or runs in 7.0 innings back on May 17, and a quick hook might be the only thing keeping him from reaching those numbers in tonight’s rematch.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at ATL) – Bauer is priced at some sites ($12800 at DraftKings) as though his recent breakout instantly put him into All-In territory, and though his weak-hitting opponent certainly ups the ante of his expected performance today, I think that the $3k gap that exists between the price tag Bauer and that of the next few pitchers on our list far exceeds the realistic value difference. For all of their flaws, Atlanta doesn’t strike out a ton, with a team K rate of just 18.1-percent against right-handed pitchers, the second lowest rate on today’s slate. Strikeouts are Bauer’s forte, so it is a bad match in terms of exploiting strengths and weaknesses, making it extremely difficult for Bauer to justify such an exorbitant expense.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. HOU) – Shoemakers has altered his approach, doubling his rate of splitters and watching his strikeouts skyrocket in the process. He’s facing the right team to make the most of his newfound ability to stockpile Ks, as the Astros lead the majors in whiffs from the hitting side of the equation, and there is little reason to think that Shoemaker’s recent strikeout explosion nor the Astros empty-swinging ways are going to change in tonight’s contest. The fact that his sudden uptick in the K department has been paired with such a drastic change in approach – making the most of what was already his most effective pitch – makes one more confident that such improvement is sustainable.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazmir | 0.318 | 4.46 | 0.297 | 3.22 | 0.255 | 0.712 | 0.276 | 4.11 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 21.7% |
| Liriano | 0.288 | 3.59 | 0.308 | 3.91 | 0.253 | 0.731 | 0.294 | 3.88 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 25.1% |
| Syndergaard | 0.293 | 3.16 | 0.242 | 2.42 | 0.246 | 0.717 | 0.292 | 2.69 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 29.1% |
| Ross | 0.346 | 3.53 | 0.224 | 3.27 | 0.241 | 0.712 | 0.270 | 3.54 | 0.225 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
| Chi Gonzalez | 0.295 | 4.25 | 0.272 | 3.62 | 0.247 | 0.729 | 0.206 | 4.97 | 0.2 | 0.01 | 10.7% |
| Nova | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.329 | 4.82 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 0.296 | 4.76 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 15.8% |
| Rodriguez | 0.338 | 4.68 | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.263 | 0.773 | 0.287 | 4.38 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 17.9% |
| Snell | 0.274 | 0.766 | |||||||||
| Arrieta | 0.219 | 1.38 | 0.230 | 2.09 | 0.244 | 0.701 | 0.244 | 2.38 | 0.181 | 0.01 | 27.3% |
| Straily | 0.300 | 4.70 | 0.296 | 3.09 | 0.249 | 0.741 | 0.246 | 4.42 | 0.212 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Bauer | 0.303 | 3.93 | 0.312 | 4.51 | 0.253 | 0.678 | 0.281 | 4.09 | 0.232 | 0.00 | 22.5% |
| Gant | 0.359 | 4.26 | 0.251 | 0.729 | 0.311 | 3.74 | 0.241 | 0.03 | 24.2% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.296 | 4.10 | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.269 | 0.733 | 0.304 | 3.41 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Duffy | 0.252 | 2.04 | 0.337 | 4.29 | 0.235 | 0.679 | 0.295 | 4.25 | 0.251 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Estrada | 0.273 | 3.05 | 0.261 | 2.83 | 0.270 | 0.779 | 0.207 | 4.28 | 0.191 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Gray | 0.319 | 4.41 | 0.330 | 5.40 | 0.260 | 0.785 | 0.336 | 3.56 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 24.7% |
| Velasquez | 0.296 | 3.47 | 0.326 | 4.58 | 0.263 | 0.736 | 0.312 | 3.51 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 26.8% |
| Ray | 0.294 | 2.70 | 0.341 | 4.32 | 0.249 | 0.669 | 0.327 | 3.70 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 23.0% |
| McHugh | 0.314 | 4.47 | 0.326 | 3.88 | 0.253 | 0.715 | 0.323 | 3.61 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 20.4% |
| Shoemaker | 0.309 | 4.87 | 0.333 | 4.00 | 0.248 | 0.744 | 0.299 | 4.17 | 0.258 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Mengden | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.250 | 4.79 | 0.217 | 0.12 | 23.1% | ||||
| Samardzija | 0.344 | 5.41 | 0.291 | 3.49 | 0.248 | 0.696 | 0.295 | 4.02 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Joe Ross WAS (vs. NYM) – The Mets have been simply atrocious lately. Bats are dropping like flies, key cogs are being sent down to the minors (Michael Conforto) and new additions such as Brandon Nimmo are being placed at the bottom of their shell of an offense, minimizing their potential impact. The Mets have a disastrous .259 wOBA over the last seven days with a .586 OPS, with both numbers ranking as the second-worst figures among the offenses on today’s slate.For his part, Ross has been solid-yet-unspectacular over the past month, garnering quality starts in five of six turns but yielding a modest 3.62 ERA and 33:10 K:BB ratio in 37.1 innings. It’s the opponent that vaults Ross near Raise status more than his own exploits.
Adam Wainwright STL (at KC) – After the game on May 12, Wainwright had an unsightly 6.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP and had been summarily battered for at least three runs apiece in each of his eight starts to date. His K count hadn’t exceeded five in any single outing, and the Cardinals kept the right-hander at 96 pitches or fewer in each of his starts. His season appeared on the edge of a knife, but since that day A&W has rediscovered how to float, and in his seven starts since Wainwright has maintained a 2.72 ERA, with quality starts in six of those turns and having exceeded the 96-pitch mark in five of them, topping out at 108 pitches thrown. He has also hit six or more strikeouts three times, topping out at nine Ks against the Reds. He may never regain his former ace status, but Wainwright looks like a trustworthy source of innings, at least for the time being.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (at ARI) – His recent DL stint caused Velasquez to have only thrown 4.2 innings thus far in June, a potential blessing in disguise given VV’s massive jump in projected innings this season, allowing the Phillies to apply the brakes. His lack of pitch efficiency was a problem before he got hurt, as Velasquez didn’t gone deeper than 5.0 innings in either of his final five starts. In fact, he has only gone past the 6.0 mark once this season, and that was in the 16-strikeout shutout of the Padres back on April 14. His K-per-inning marks are naturally enticing, but in DFS the key is to stay in the game long enough to rack up the counts of innings and strikeouts, something that Velasquez has yet to prove that he can do outside of the one start.
Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. OAK) – The Shark is coming off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs to the Pirates in just 3.0 innings of work, despite the Pirates going through an offensive funk at the time. His strikeouts have mysteriously disappeared, with four or fewer Ks in each of his last five starts. Three times in those five, Samardzija has given up five or more runs. He getting blasted for hits (26 hits in last 21.2 innings) and especially homers (eight homers allowed in same stretch), isn’t getting empty swings, and has been out due to lack of performance rather than pitch count in four of his last five turns, only throwing 64 pitches in his last start. The A’s are an enticing opponent, but the only blood in the water right now belongs to the Shark himself.
Blake Snell TB (vs. BOS)
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. PHI)
Collin McHugh HOU (at LAA)
Danny Duffy KC (vs. STL)
Ivan Nova NYY (vs. TEX)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at TB) – Earlier I referred to the Mets as being the second-worst offensive team in baseball over the last seven days. The Worst: the Rays. They have a collective wOBA of just .244 over that stretch, with a painful .557 OPS. However, the Rays hit southpaws (.333 wOBA and .773 OPS) and just got noted southpaw-smasher Logan Forsythe back from the disabled list, so the road for Rodriguez will not be as easy to travel as it may seem at first glance.
Daniel Mengden OAK (at SF) – An 0-3 record belies his 21:6 K:BB ratio over 18.0 innings and three starts this season. He struck out nine Brewers over 6.0 frames in his last start and limited the Rangers to one run over 6.1 in the previous turn. The minor-league numbers that both the Ks and the walks will regress downward, but a career ERA of just 2.87 in the minor leagues is an encouraging indicator of his ability to continue limiting the runs against.
John Gant ATL (vs. CLE)
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (at NYY)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Marco Estrada TOR (at COL) – He’s had a magnificent stretch in Toronto and is underrated overall, but Estrada’s flyball tendencies play right into the pinball effects of Coors Field.
Dan Straily CIN (vs. CHC)
Jon Gray COL (vs. TOR) – Gray is often a chic pick when he’s pitching on the road, but Coors has proven to be impervious to pitcher talent and will take down any hurler that crosses its path.
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