Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, May 2nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-03 03:22:25

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Hammel	CHC	PIT	194.2	3.37	3.50	1.15	47.4%	24.2%	6.1%	1.06	1.03
Cole	PIT	CHC	230.2	2.61	3.28	1.10	28.6%	23.9%	5.4%	0.47	1.61
Griffin	TEX	TOR	25	2.52	4.77	1.04		17.2%	9.1%	0.72	0.82
Dickey	TOR	TEX	241	4.22	4.72	1.24	47.6%	14.7%	7.2%	1.05	1.15
Foltynewicz	ATL	NYM	86.2	5.71	4.30	1.63		19.3%	7.3%	1.77	0.77
Colon	NYM	ATL	218.1	4.08	3.94	1.24	42.1%	17.2%	3.0%	1.15	1.17
Cueto	SFG	CIN	249.1	3.32	3.74	1.12	76.2%	20.7%	5.0%	0.79	1.21
Finnegan	CIN	SFG	76	3.67	4.21	1.22		21.4%	11.3%	1.54	1.49
Weaver	LAA	MIL	182.1	4.54	4.98	1.26	52.4%	13.1%	5.2%	1.38	0.70
Nelson	MIL	LAA	208.2	3.97	4.15	1.27		19.6%	9.0%	1.04	1.69
Berrios	MIN	HOU
Keuchel	HOU	MIN	264.2	2.72	2.98	1.07	50.0%	23.2%	6.1%	0.61	3.10
Hellickson	PHI	STL	172	4.50	4.02	1.31		20.0%	6.6%	1.36	1.11
Wainwright	STL	PHI	55.2	4.37	4.47	1.37	84.2%	14.4%	6.3%	0.65	1.57
Gonzalez	WAS	KCR	201	3.49	3.75	1.37	46.7%	22.5%	8.8%	0.40	1.89
Volquez	KCR	WAS	230	3.52	4.30	1.31	50.0%	18.4%	8.4%	0.70	1.45
Karns	SEA	OAK	169.1	3.67	3.93	1.29		23.6%	9.5%	1.17	1.17
Graveman	OAK	SEA	138	4.04	4.32	1.38		16.1%	7.5%	1.30	1.79
Gray	COL	SDP	49.1	6.57	3.72	1.72		22.7%	7.4%	1.09	1.38
Shields	SDP	COL	235.1	3.86	3.88	1.31	42.9%	23.8%	9.5%	1.42	1.27

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

There are no all-in candidates on today’s short slate. Cueto is the only pitcher above $10k salary on DraftKings, and yet I would prefer yesterday’s options at the same price point such as Noah Syndergaard and Danny Salazar.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. CIN) – This is the first time that Cueto will be facing the Reds as a member of the team in the other dugout, and though Cincy might have an advantage in knowing Cueto’s repertoire better than any other club, they currently lack the personnel to take advantage. Joey Votto is by far the most intimidating bat in that lineup, but in the season’s first month he has scuffled to a .230/.310/.330 line with just three extra-base hits in 25 games. On the other hand, Cueto has been on fire to start the season, with just five walks and one homer allowed in his first five starts and 37.1 innings this season. He’s still at the head of the pitcher class today, but not by enough to warrant placement in the all-in tier.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. CHC) – Cole mastered the thin air of Denver in his first career start there, giving up two earned runs over 6.0 innings there in his last start. The K count was low (three), and in fact he hasn’t whiffed more than seven hitters in any turn this season, but escaping Colorado relatively unscathed is a feat unto itself. Cole has endured a pretty light workload on the young season, topping out at 103 pitches on the year and facing 22 or fewer hitters in three of his four starts, but his efficiency has led to quality starts in each of his last three turns. Today he faces the high-scoring offense of the Cubs, a team that could punish Cole if he continues to rely on weak contact to chew up innings.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at KC) – It seems that Gonzalez was largely written off in fantasy circles, following a rough 2015 campaign, but the major difference between last year and the previous five seasons was an elevated hit rate, which was just 7.5 H/9 from 2010-14 but spiked to 9.3 H/9 last season. Gio’s M.O. Over the past several seasons is that he would rather walk a hitter than give in to his strengths, an approach that has led to copious walks but few homers throughout his career, and that approach has belied what is actually a stable delivery with solid pitch command – the high rate of walks is largely by design.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. LAA) – Nelson was a popular breakout pick prior to last season, but a 4.11 ERA and a mere 148:65 ratio of K:BB left his managers wanting. A quick glance at the superficial numbers makes it look like he might be ready for that much-anticipated breakout in 2016 – a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP – but the peripherals are even worse than in previous seasons, with a paltry 25:14 K:BB ratio and six homers allowed in 31.1 innings of work. His success has come on the heels of a low hit rate and a fortunate order of operations, as four of the six homers that he has given up have been of the solo variety, but he could be in for a rude awakening if he continues to struggle with keeping the ball in the park.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Hammel	0.301	2.51	0.298	4.06	0.267	0.739	0.285	3.54	0.233	0.01	24.2%
Cole	0.267	2.07	0.282	3.14	0.248	0.740	0.305	2.67	0.236	0.01	23.9%
Griffin	0.293	3.00			0.263	0.782	0.211	3.87	0.189	0.04	17.2%
Dickey	0.294	3.82	0.334	4.57	0.258	0.735	0.268	4.45	0.247	0.00	14.7%
Foltynewicz	0.401	5.93	0.364	5.52	0.245	0.713	0.349	5.05	0.306	0.00	19.3%
Colon	0.310	3.57	0.325	4.66	0.255	0.678	0.309	3.79	0.276	0.00	17.2%
Cueto	0.265	2.34	0.312	4.22	0.247	0.698	0.286	3.32	0.239	0.01	20.7%
Finnegan	0.340	4.42	0.294	3.43	0.269	0.716	0.221	5.06	0.204	0.01	21.4%
Weaver	0.348	4.25	0.324	4.83	0.255	0.708	0.275	4.91	0.264	0.00	13.1%
Nelson	0.365	5.44	0.261	2.90	0.247	0.704	0.275	4.29	0.237	0.01	19.6%
Berrios					0.248	0.747
Keuchel	0.203	2.87	0.277	2.68	0.257	0.720	0.277	2.93	0.222	0.01	23.2%
Hellickson	0.343	4.42	0.326	4.56	0.264	0.754	0.292	4.34	0.255	0.01	20.0%
Wainwright	0.318	3.38	0.337	4.98	0.245	0.681	0.311	3.69	0.276	0.01	14.4%
Gonzalez	0.273	2.87	0.309	3.68	0.272	0.729	0.329	2.98	0.255	0.01	22.5%
Volquez	0.294	2.96	0.311	4.09	0.244	0.707	0.293	3.76	0.248	0.00	18.4%
Karns	0.308	2.93	0.306	4.48	0.248	0.701	0.285	4.12	0.234	0.01	23.6%
Graveman	0.319	2.97	0.341	5.05	0.241	0.716	0.292	4.71	0.267	0.01	16.1%
Gray	0.358	4.88	0.404	8.17	0.241	0.679	0.408	3.76	0.324	0.00	22.7%
Shields	0.368	4.39	0.292	3.39	0.268	0.774	0.289	4.49	0.242	0.01	23.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. MIN) – Just when we think that the Cy-winning version of Keuchel is about to show up, he throws a pair of clunkers that included 11 runs allowed in 12.0 innings of work. The problem is not the longball, with just one homer surrendered in 32.2 innings this season, but he has been bludgeoned by base hits and doubles over the last two turns. HE has given up 19 hits across the two games, including six knocks for extra bases. He struggled with walks in his first two turns of the year, giving away 10 free passes across the two games, and though he has chilled the walk total (just three total walks over his last three starts), the results on contact have not been favorable. He still has raise-worthy upside, as evidenced by his eight shutout frames against the Tigers back on Jackie Robinson day, but it’s tough to recommend a player who has been disappointing in four of his five turns this season.

Jose Berrios MIN (at HOU) – As mentioned when he made his first start, I am big on Berrios, and I think that he could be one of the better pitchers in the league, but his MLB debut was wholly disappointing. He struggled mightily with pitch command, missing badly to the arm-side through the outing and seemingly having an inability to go inside to left-handed batters. Perhaps it was nerves or maybe Berrios struggled to line up his delivery, but the pitcher with a career rate of 2.5 BB/9 in the minors failed to show himself in that first turn, pitching from behind in the count most of the day as he threw first-pitch strikes to just seven of the 20 batters that he faced. His command had also been off in the minors to start the year, so there’s a chance that the Twins promoted Berrios even though he wasn’t quite ready to join the big club, but a rash of injuries to the starting rotation forced the Twins hand.

James Shields SD (vs. COL) – For nine seasons at the highest level, Shields had established himself as a control artist whose strike-throwing skills kept the walks down yet occasionally led to home runs leaving the park. Then he became a Padre, and though the home runs continued to fly out of the yard, suddenly Shields was getting punished by walking batters en route to the big flies. From 2006-14, Shields had a walk rate of just 2.1 BB/9, but that number has spiked heavily over the past season-plus in a Padres uniform, rising to 3.6 BB/9 in San Diego. Last season he at least added a handful of strikeouts to go with the extra walks, but the Ks have been missing this season (just 21 strikeouts in 33.0 innings), and the incentive to roster him in DFS has crumbled accordingly.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. WAS) – The veteran Volquez was rolling along with a 1.09 ERA heading into his last start, but the Angels rocked him for 12 hits and eight runs over 5.0 frames, more than tripling his ERA to 3.34 in the process. He had one game where he struck out 10 batters (versus the Twins on April 10), but he has not whiffed more than five hitters in any of his other turns. In a nutshell: Volquez is extremely unpredictable. He could blank the Nats over seven innings with a K-per-frame, or he could get lit for five-plus runs, and neither outcome would surprise me. Roster him at your own risk.

Nate Karns SEA (at OAK) – The right-handed Karns has a slightly-inverse platoon split for his career, essentially trading walks to lefties for power to right-handed bats, but the deceiving nature of his splits will make it tougher for the platoon-heavy A’s to stack an advantage. Karns has been a good source of strikeouts in his career, and this season he has registered between five-to-seven Ks in each of his four starts, though he has exceeded 5.1 innings in just one of those turns. He gave up four runs to the A’s in his first start of the year, but it was also his lowest walk total of the season (just one free pass) and Karns will need to combine that stinginess towards walks with a similar stinginess toward hits allowed in order to have a good game. Against the light-hitting A;s, this is certainly possible.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. PHI) – How the mighty have fallen. Wainwright was a regular in the raise space in the first month of 2015, prior to the ruptured Achilles that prematurely ended his season, but he was a consistent Cy contender despite a modest K rate. The same was expected of this year, but Wainwright has thoroughly disappointed in all phases of his stat-line. The pitch command that was once his calling card has completely abandoned Wainwright this season, resulting in an elevated walk rate and keeping Waino from burying his curveball, which has been a key aspect to his success in the majors. The modest Ks are down even further, the walks are up, and the pitcher who has given up 0.6 HR/9 in his career has already allowed four homers in five starts. Facing the Phillies is supposed to vault just about any pitcher into the raise conversation, but Wainwright’s issues thus far have had little to do with opponents and he will need to get out of his own way if he is going to recapture some of the previous magic.

Jon Gray COL (at SD)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at SF)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at STL)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at TOR)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at NYM)

Jason Hammel CHC (at PIT)

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. SEA)

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. ATL)

Jered Weaver LAA (at MIL)