Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 26th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley | ARI | WAS | 161.2 | 5.23 | 4.67 | 1.59 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 1.06 | 1.67 | |
| Roark | WAS | ARI | 304.1 | 3.34 | 4.24 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 18.1% | 7.3% | 0.92 | 1.59 |
| Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 359 | 3.01 | 3.54 | 1.06 | 22.8% | 6.0% | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Kuhl | PIT | CHC | 56.2 | 3.97 | 4.59 | 1.20 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 0.95 | 1.35 | |
| Severino | NYY | TOR | 125.1 | 4.45 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 1.36 | 1.66 | |
| Happ | TOR | NYY | 348.1 | 3.44 | 4.00 | 1.21 | 30.8% | 21.1% | 6.8% | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| Kluber | CLE | DET | 426.2 | 3.31 | 3.23 | 1.05 | 57.1% | 27.0% | 5.8% | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Farmer | DET | CLE | 64.2 | 6.12 | 4.83 | 1.65 | 16.7% | 11.2% | 1.81 | 1.20 | |
| Conley | MIA | NYM | 197.1 | 3.88 | 4.42 | 1.37 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 0.91 | 0.94 | |
| Garza | MIL | TEX | 240.1 | 5.09 | 4.67 | 1.54 | 35.0% | 15.5% | 8.3% | 1.27 | 1.57 |
| Perez | TEX | MIL | 260.2 | 4.28 | 4.83 | 1.42 | 37.5% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 0.66 | 2.18 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | HOU | 315.2 | 3.73 | 4.06 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 18.8% | 4.9% | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| McHugh | HOU | SEA | 368 | 4.23 | 3.94 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 21.1% | 6.4% | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Smyly | TBR | CWS | 231 | 4.44 | 3.86 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 6.8% | 1.64 | 0.67 |
| Shields | CWS | TBR | 365.2 | 4.77 | 4.38 | 1.45 | 42.9% | 20.9% | 9.7% | 1.72 | 1.18 |
| Adleman | CIN | STL | 51.1 | 4.21 | 5.06 | 1.31 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.93 | 0.91 | |
| Garcia | STL | CIN | 296.1 | 3.71 | 3.74 | 1.24 | 28.6% | 19.6% | 7.1% | 0.91 | 2.46 |
| Manaea | OAK | LAA | 125.2 | 4.23 | 4.09 | 1.24 | 20.8% | 6.3% | 1.36 | 1.18 | |
| Weaver | LAA | OAK | 326 | 4.91 | 5.21 | 1.37 | 52.4% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 1.66 | 0.65 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (at DET) – Kluber has a high floor of strikeouts, having recorded seven or more Ks in his last eight consecutive starts and in 13 of his last 14. He has also been reaching for some upside in the strikeout department recently, recording his first two games of double-digit strikeouts this season and whiffing nine or more batters in four of his last five starts. The extra whiffs have helped to cover for the fact that Kluber has given up four runs in each of two different starts this month, but the strikeouts have balanced with solid run prevention to give him eight straight games of 20-plus points on DraftKings (and 13 of 14), with the one outlier again being his three-strikeout game against the contact-heavy Angels on August 11th. He last faced the Tigers two starts ago, and Detroit hung a four-spot on Kluber with a pair of homers and three walks against seven strikeouts on the game.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at PIT) – Whether it has as much to do with the Cubs’ gloves as it does Hendricks is besides the point at this juncture, as the right-hander has proven himself in the courtroom of run prevention. He has given up more than two runs just once in his last 16 starts, that being a three-run outing that he had back in July and which came within one out of qualifying for a baseline quality start. He hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of his 29 starts this season. He blanked the Pirates over seven frames in his last start of August in what was a standard start from a DFS perspective, as Hendricks has been a virtual lock for 25 points on DraftKings for the past couple months. We’re running out of time for regression to pull Hendricks away from the NL ERA title.
J.A. Happ TOR (vs. NYY) – It’s not sexy, but Happ has been remarkably effective recently, especially considering, some of the tough offenses that he has had to battle over the past month. He has a 3-0 record with a 2.65 ERA and 16:5 K:BB over 17.0 innings in his last three games, defeating robust offenses such as those of the Red Sox and the Mariners. He struck out eight batters versus Seattle in his last turn, though Happ fell short of earning the quality start due to a lack of pitch-count efficiency that saw him make 99 pitches in just 5.0 frames of work. It was the most Ks that Happ had mustered in a single game since mid-August, when he struck out nine of these Yankees on August 17th, though his day was tainted by three home runs that Happ served up to the Bronx Bombers.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. ARI) – The right-hander has been a run-prevention machine over the past month, with a composite ERA of just 1.13 over his last five starts and 32.0 innings pitched, with just one home run allowed during that stretch – on the year, he’s coughed up just 13 gopherballs in 200.1 innings. His 28:14 K:BB over that same stretch is nothing to write home about, but Roark has only allowed 20 hits along the way, and the only thing keeping Roark from a five-game streak of quality starts is the five-inning game that he had against the Mets at the beginning of September. At one point, Roark had walked two or fewer batters in 15 of 16 starts, with the one outlier being a three-walk performance, but he has come to personify the term “effectively wild” over the past couple months, and Roark has walked three or more batters in 7 of his last 11 ballgames, including two games in September of four walks apiece.
Sean Manaea OAK (at LAA) – Call this one a hunch, and maybe I would need to be in good position at the poker table, but the combination of stellar recent performance and a non-threatening opponent vaults Manaea into the Raise category for the first time this season. Whether he deserves such a lofty ranking is likely tied to his pitch counts, as Manaea has maxed out with just 85 pitches in any of his last three games despite throwing 14.1 innings without a single earned run over that span, preceded by a seven-inning stint of one-run baseball against the robust offense of Cleveland. His ERA over the past four games is a microscopic 0.42 mark, with a 24:7 K:BB and just 10 hits allowed in his last 21.1 innings. All bets are off when it comes to workload at this time of year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the A’s yank Manaea early from his final start of the season, just as I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave him a longer leash in light of the light workload recently and the extended layoff of the offseason.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley | 0.364 | 4.63 | 0.324 | 5.82 | 0.251 | 0.729 | 0.324 | 4.51 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Roark | 0.316 | 3.05 | 0.291 | 3.61 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.283 | 4.04 | 0.246 | 68.87 | 18.1% |
| Hendricks | 0.308 | 2.62 | 0.248 | 3.30 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 0.269 | 3.31 | 0.221 | 0.00 | 22.8% |
| Kuhl | 0.346 | 4.33 | 0.282 | 3.64 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.271 | 4.15 | 0.242 | 80.18 | 16.7% |
| Severino | 0.315 | 3.53 | 0.346 | 5.49 | 0.257 | 0.774 | 0.298 | 4.39 | 0.256 | 74.41 | 21.5% |
| Happ | 0.286 | 3.12 | 0.303 | 3.53 | 0.255 | 0.730 | 0.290 | 3.72 | 0.245 | 91.38 | 21.1% |
| Kluber | 0.305 | 3.48 | 0.250 | 3.15 | 0.267 | 0.746 | 0.282 | 3.11 | 0.219 | 101.61 | 27.0% |
| Farmer | 0.426 | 6.35 | 0.347 | 5.94 | 0.256 | 0.743 | 0.313 | 5.95 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Colon | 0.319 | 3.61 | 0.303 | 3.74 | 0.261 | 0.700 | 0.297 | 3.90 | 0.268 | 83.75 | 16.3% |
| Conley | 0.340 | 3.79 | 0.314 | 3.90 | 0.247 | 0.738 | 0.302 | 4.08 | 0.248 | 85.41 | 21.2% |
| Garza | 0.368 | 5.43 | 0.329 | 4.79 | 0.260 | 0.749 | 0.312 | 4.76 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 15.5% |
| Perez | 0.248 | 2.30 | 0.337 | 4.81 | 0.244 | 0.720 | 0.297 | 4.14 | 0.268 | 92.34 | 12.9% |
| Iwakuma | 0.313 | 3.56 | 0.307 | 3.90 | 0.249 | 0.746 | 0.288 | 4.07 | 0.257 | 92.36 | 18.8% |
| McHugh | 0.312 | 4.19 | 0.338 | 4.27 | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.327 | 3.78 | 0.273 | 98.27 | 21.1% |
| Smyly | 0.298 | 4.66 | 0.324 | 4.39 | 0.254 | 0.697 | 0.289 | 4.35 | 0.246 | 96.13 | 24.4% |
| Shields | 0.374 | 4.43 | 0.338 | 5.09 | 0.245 | 0.721 | 0.300 | 5.20 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 20.9% |
| Adleman | 0.391 | 6.00 | 0.322 | 2.97 | 0.258 | 0.755 | 0.255 | 5.89 | 0.253 | 84.40 | 15.7% |
| Garcia | 0.295 | 3.22 | 0.303 | 3.82 | 0.244 | 0.704 | 0.290 | 3.80 | 0.247 | 87.34 | 19.6% |
| Manaea | 0.223 | 2.10 | 0.338 | 4.77 | 0.245 | 0.698 | 0.290 | 4.23 | 0.253 | 86.82 | 20.8% |
| Weaver | 0.350 | 4.55 | 0.353 | 5.23 | 0.250 | 0.707 | 0.290 | 5.29 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 13.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at HOU) – The right-hander is coming off a brutal start against the Blue Jays, who scored six runs (five earned) on eight hits – including two home runs – in just 3.1 innings against Iwakuma. The game came on the heels of a solid three-start string to start September, though his utter lack of strikeouts – just 12 Ks in 20.0 innings leading up to his last turn – had kept him in the 14-to-20 point range on DraftKings. He actually has just 26 punchouts in his last 44.2 innings covering eight starts, none of which has featured more than five Ks, and the risk of another brutal outing effectively ups the ante on his downside.
Drew Smyly TB (at CHW) – Smyly has set a new personal best this season with 170.1 innings pitched at the highest level, but that is one of the few positive takeaways from a season line that includes a disappointing ERA of 4.86 despite a respectable K:BB of 162:48 this season. He has given up at least one home run in seven straight contests and surrendered 32 total bombs on the season, and he’s given up a bloated total of 43 homers in 237 frames over the past two seasons. He hasn’t faced the White Sox yet this season, so the southpaw with the delivery of a drunken flamingo might benefit from the novelty factor in tonight’s game.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at MIA) – He doesn’t strike out many batters, with just 122 Ks in 184.1 innings this season and just 31 whiffs over his last 50 frames, but Colon has a reasonably-high floor thanks to stellar run prevention that has resulted in a 3.12 ERA this season. He has thrown five straight quality starts and has gone at least 6.0 innings in seven games in a row (and nine of ten). The last that Colon faced the Marlins is a perfect encapsulation of his last two months, as he surrendered two runs (one earned) over 7.0 innings with three strikeouts and zero walks, though the right-hander took the no-decision in a game that the Mets would go on to win.
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. SEA) – McHugh was a punching bag at the beginning of the season, carrying a 5.13 ERA with 71 hits allowed through his first 10 games and 52.2 innings pitched, but his march through September has been reminiscent of his breakthrough campaign of 2014. In his last three starts, McHugh has given up just three runs over 17.2 innings (1.52 ERA), with no homers and just 10 hits allowed over that stretch. His strikeouts have remained unimpressive, never topping a half-dozen whiffs in any single game over his last nine turns, but he has also maintained a decent floor of Ks during that stretch. His K:BB over the last three games is not particularly impressive at 17:7, but it’s shabby either, and rostering McHugh can have its benefits so long as expectations are kept in check. He blanked the Mariners over 7.0 frames when McHugh faced them two starts ago, with just two hits and two walks allowed to go with his six strikeouts on the game.
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. CIN)
Archie Bradley ARI (at WAS)
Tim Adleman CIN (at STL)
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. CHC)
Adam Conley MIA (vs. NYM)
Martin Perez TEX (vs. MIL)
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. OAK)
Luis Severino NYY (at TOR)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Matt Garza MIL (at TEX)
James Shields CHW (vs. TB)
Buck Farmer DET (vs. CLE)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window