Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, April 14th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimmermann | DET | PIT | 401.1 | 3.16 | 3.49 | 1.14 | 52.6% | 21.2% | 4.2% | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Cole | PIT | DET | 346 | 3.02 | 3.23 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 24.2% | 6.0% | 0.57 | 1.59 |
| Pomeranz | SDP | PHI | 155 | 3.08 | 3.68 | 1.15 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 9.0% | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Velasquez | PHI | SDP | |||||||||
| Salazar | CLE | TBR | 295 | 3.75 | 3.37 | 1.22 | 12.5% | 25.6% | 7.2% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Archer | TBR | CLE | 406.2 | 3.28 | 3.42 | 1.20 | 55.0% | 25.2% | 8.2% | 0.69 | 1.43 |
| Latos | CWS | MIN | 218.2 | 4.16 | 3.98 | 1.23 | 66.7% | 19.0% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Santana | MIN | CWS | 304 | 3.97 | 3.91 | 1.30 | 38.9% | 20.5% | 7.8% | 0.83 | 1.22 |
| Peralta | MIL | STL | 307.1 | 3.95 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 47.4% | 16.3% | 7.5% | 1.08 | 1.89 |
| Garcia | STL | MIL | 173.1 | 2.86 | 3.25 | 1.05 | 28.6% | 19.8% | 5.4% | 0.62 | 2.59 |
| Cain | SFG | COL | 151 | 4.83 | 4.39 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 17.2% | 8.1% | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SFG | 333.1 | 4.13 | 4.07 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 19.5% | 9.4% | 1.03 | 1.78 |
| Teheran | ATL | WAS | 421.2 | 3.44 | 3.94 | 1.19 | 70.0% | 20.7% | 7.2% | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ATL | 342.1 | 3.26 | 2.69 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 28.5% | 5.0% | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | TOR | 354 | 4.30 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 17.2% | 6.0% | 0.61 | 1.61 |
| Stroman | TOR | NYY | 157.2 | 3.31 | 3.21 | 1.14 | 66.7% | 20.3% | 5.3% | 0.51 | 2.13 |
| Tillman | BAL | TEX | 380.1 | 4.09 | 4.46 | 1.30 | 42.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| Hamels | TEX | BAL | 417 | 3.06 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 58.8% | 24.2% | 7.1% | 0.78 | 1.51 |
| Iglesias | CIN | CHC | 95.1 | 4.15 | 3.26 | 1.14 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 1.04 | 1.48 | |
| Hammel | CHC | CIN | 347 | 3.61 | 3.47 | 1.14 | 47.4% | 23.2% | 5.9% | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Kennedy | KCR | HOU | 369.1 | 3.92 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 24.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Fister | HOU | KCR | 267 | 3.10 | 4.15 | 1.20 | 58.3% | 14.5% | 4.3% | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| Ray | ARI | LAD | 156.1 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 8.8% | 0.81 | 1.15 |
| Stripling | LAD | ARI |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Archer TB (vs. CLE) – Full disclosure: I am really bad at pegging Archer’s starts. Every time that I start this guy in DFS, he gets crushed. Granted, he’s a bit inconsistent, earning less than 10 points on DraftKings in 9 of his 34 starts last season (included three starts in the red), but the upside is undeniable as he also cracked 30 points in 8 of his starts, even besting 50 in one of his turns. So take this recommendation with a huge grain of salt, but I like the matchup. He’s a strikeout machine but his penchant for true outcomes (walk, homers and strikeouts) has seen him bounced from the last two games due to pitch count despite tossing just 5.0 innings in each. I think that he finds a happy medium in terms of strikeouts and run prevention against Cleveland.
Danny Salazar CLE (at TB) – Owning the top two pitchers on today’s slate will mean forgoing the points for at least one win, but the light offenses of the Rays and Indians combine with the strikeout-heavy approaches of Archer and Salazar to create a perfect storm, swirling with the whiffs of empty swings. Like Archer, Salazar is typically less than efficient with his pitches, including 94 throws to eat just 5.1 innings in his first start of the season. These two hurlers could combine for 20 strikeouts without covering 10 frames between them, but the upside is massive. Salazar has averaged an impressive 9.9 K/9 in his career and last year limited the hits as well as the walks; his last link in the chain is to squelch the home runs.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. ATL) – Stras was the only All-in candidate yesterday, but after getting scratched due to illness (I’ve already written that line more times this season than any other, ever), he gets dropped a few pegs on the list. There’s still a chance that he doesn’t go, and even if he takes the mound we have to worry about whether the illness will impact Strasburg’s effectiveness or stamina, and whether manager Dusty Baker will have a quicker hook. It makes much of yesterday’s blurb in this space moot, but at least part of what I said still applies: “Strasburg was less than dominant in his first start of the year, yet he was still effective in limiting these Braves to one earned run over six frames, a feat that only required 88 pitches. He walked three and struck out four batters in the outing … The 0-8 [edited] Braves will get the monkey off their backs at some point, probably soon, but they will need Stras to be off the mark.” I would say that last bit is a tad more likely if his health is compromised.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at DET) – Cole was off-kilter in his first start, failing to escape the fifth inning thanks to an uncharacteristic lack of command and a string of batters that were fouling off two-strike pitches like that was their job, as he threw four or more pitches to nine consecutive batters, six of which fouled their way to at-bats of six or more pitches apiece. Cole kept the ball in the yard, but he allowed three runs via eight baserunners (three of them walks) over the 4.2 frames. Things won’t get easier in start no. 2, as Cole takes on the power-heavy offense of the Tigers in an interleague matchup.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. BAL) – I might raise with this matchup, but I wouldn’t go too far over the top; Hamels is on the verge of Call status so maybe a double-bet is in order. The Orioles offense loses an arm without Adam Jones in the order, but if he remains out then there’s still enough clout to tag Hamels with more than a flesh wound. His leftiness could play huge, neutralizing Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez to further whittle the threats in the Baltimore lineup.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.270 | 2.86 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.302 | 3.22 | 0.251 | 92.72 | 21.2% |
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.288 | 3.59 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.307 | 2.89 | 0.238 | 100.65 | 24.2% |
| Pomeranz | 0.300 | 1.20 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.281 | 0.756 | 0.259 | 3.69 | 0.213 | 35.34 | 23.0% |
| Velasquez | 0.244 | 0.694 | |||||||||
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.305 | 3.73 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.303 | 3.58 | 0.241 | 98.34 | 25.6% |
| Archer | 0.283 | 2.67 | 0.292 | 3.59 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.296 | 3.13 | 0.228 | 100.14 | 25.2% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.302 | 4.10 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.289 | 3.69 | 0.249 | 83.43 | 19.0% |
| Santana | 0.332 | 4.02 | 0.296 | 3.39 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.306 | 3.67 | 0.254 | 97.19 | 20.5% |
| Peralta | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.303 | 2.97 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.304 | 4.37 | 0.272 | 95.12 | 16.3% |
| Garcia | 0.256 | 2.44 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.268 | 3.21 | 0.225 | 92.15 | 19.8% | ||
| Cain | 0.329 | 4.29 | 0.330 | 4.17 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.282 | 4.97 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 17.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.241 | 2.47 | 0.332 | 4.37 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.274 | 4.27 | 0.237 | 95.28 | 19.5% |
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.260 | 2.71 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.277 | 3.93 | 0.237 | 99.18 | 20.7% |
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.307 | 3.81 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.314 | 2.89 | 0.238 | 93.65 | 28.5% |
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 4.30 | 0.297 | 4.15 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.329 | 3.39 | 0.279 | 97.27 | 17.2% |
| Stroman | 0.287 | 3.31 | 0.278 | 3.84 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.295 | 2.96 | 0.242 | 81.83 | 20.3% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.325 | 5.14 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.279 | 4.21 | 0.248 | 97.75 | 16.8% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.294 | 3.27 | 0.233 | 104.50 | 24.2% |
| Iglesias | 0.271 | 3.27 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.286 | 3.55 | 0.225 | 87.00 | 26.3% | ||
| Hammel | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.303 | 4.11 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.280 | 3.80 | 0.235 | 90.93 | 23.2% |
| Kennedy | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.324 | 4.01 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.309 | 3.80 | 0.249 | 100.21 | 24.4% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.311 | 3.20 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.281 | 4.17 | 0.26 | 82.44 | 14.5% |
| Ray | 0.346 | 4.63 | 0.239 | 0.651 | 0.325 | 3.84 | 0.268 | 87.63 | 20.3% | ||
| Stripling | 0.256 | 0.693 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. NYY) – Stroman’s stock is higher on the field than it is in the fantasy realm, as his approach centers on wicked arm-side movement with his mid-90s fastball to generate weak contact rather than strikeouts. His stuff opens the door for the occasional high-strikeout outing, but the Yankees have been one of the harder teams to strike out this season and will pose a challenge.
Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. PIT) – Zimmermann blanked the Yankees in his first start of the season, and now he faces a Pirates ballclub whose .375 OBP is the second-highest in baseball this young season. He goes light on the strikeouts, as one rosters Zimm for the run prevention and the lack of walks, so the difference between a good and bad day against the Pirates will likely boil down to balls in play. The key for Zimmermann has been to keep the ball in the yard, so it bodes well that he is facing a Pittsburgh club that has just three home runs in nine games this season.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. SD) – This ranking has as much to do with Velasquez as it does the soft-core lineup that he is facing. Just about anyone facing the Padres is an auto-start (unless the game is played in Colorado, of course), and the fact that Velasquez is coming off of a six-inning, nine-strikeout, zero-run performance against the Mets is another point in his favor. Velasquez has a mid-90s fastball and a hard curve with average break, though the off-speed pitch lags behind the others. If there’s one thing that he has done throughout his minor-league career it’s pile up the strikeouts, and one can expect a stockpile of Ks in this outing as well.
Chris Tillman BAL (at TEX) – Keep this on the down-low, but Tillman might actually be good. Finally. The right-hander has always leaned on the fastball to finish his strikeouts, with 60-percent of his career Ks ending on the four-seam or the sinker. The difference is that the fastball is more effective this year. Tillman’s average four-seam velocity has been 93.9 mph through his first 7.0 innings of 2016, which is 0.8 mph faster than any season average of his career and 1.3 mph faster than last season’s average. The sample is obviously too small to draw any firm conclusions, but the fact that he is throwing so hard at this early juncture in the season is pretty remarkable. His command has also been stronger, thanks to improvements to the balance and stability of his delivery. Tillman has never had a start with 10 or more strikeouts, but we might see that come to an end in the near future.
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. MIL)
Raisel Iglesias CIN (at CHC)
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. CIN) – Iglesias is a far more intriguing pitcher than Hammel, but the context acts like a magnet to bring their relative values in sync, with Iglesias facing the formidable offense of the Cubs while Hammel gets a soft matchup against the lineup of the Reds.
Mat Latos CHW (at MIN) – I’m going to recommend throwing just about anyone against the Twins until they get the motor running on their offense, because right now they’re stuck on the side of the road with the hazard lights blinking (1.86 runs per game).
Julio Teheran ATL (at WAS) – He was a complete mess in his last start, walking three batters in the first inning and then uncorking two very wild pitches in the second, one of which buzzed the tower of opposing pitcher Carlos Martinez. Teheran has a powerful delivery that he has struggled to contain over the last year and change, resulting in a reversal of what was once an excellent trend of decreasing walk rates along but an escalated frequency of homers allowed due to the misplaced pitches.
Ian Kennedy KC (at HOU)
Ross Stripling LAD (vs. ARI)
Robbie Ray ARI (at LAD)
Drew Pomeranz SD (at PHI) – In the battle of empty offenses, pitching is king. In the case of Pomeranz, however, not even facing the Phillies can raise the roof of his limited upside. He will get the added benefit of facing a southpaw-phobic Ryan Howard if Darin Ruf shoulder injury keeps him out of Thursday’s game. Incidentally, actual slugger Maikel Franco has had an inverse split thus far in the small sample of his big league career, which would theoretically play into the hands of lefty Pomeranz, but such matchups are how small-sample splits get flipped upside-down.
Doug Fister HOU (vs. KC) – if ever there was a situation for a pitcher to qualify for the win yet get zero strikeouts, then this would be it.
Wily Peralta MIL (at STL)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. CHW)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Nate Eovaldi NYY (at TOR)
Matt Cain SF (at COL)
Jorge de la Rosa COL (vs. SF) – The myth of DLR’s Coors Field mastery has been busted. Roster Posey if he’s playing; he crushes lefties, DLR gets lit by right-handed bats, and Colorado is the land where even pumpkins turn into stagecoaches, while the stagecoaches like Posey become Ferrari’s.