Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, April 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kershaw | LAD | ATL | 254.2 | 2.09 | 2.29 | 0.85 | 66.7% | 33.1% | 4.5% | 0.60 | 1.69 |
| Wisler | ATL | LAD | 122.2 | 4.70 | 4.88 | 1.40 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.39 | 0.78 | |
| Karns | SEA | CLE | 157 | 3.73 | 3.88 | 1.31 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 1.20 | 1.12 | |
| Anderson | CLE | SEA | 102 | 3.35 | 4.89 | 1.17 | 12.3% | 6.5% | 1.15 | 1.27 | |
| Scherzer | WAS | MIA | 248.2 | 2.82 | 2.69 | 0.92 | 60.0% | 30.3% | 4.1% | 1.09 | 0.81 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 197.1 | 4.20 | 4.71 | 1.42 | 52.6% | 16.9% | 9.8% | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BOS | 188 | 3.26 | 3.81 | 1.14 | 36.8% | 22.0% | 6.3% | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Price | BOS | TBR | 238.1 | 2.61 | 3.17 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.2% | 5.3% | 0.68 | 1.11 |
| Nolasco | MIN | MIL | 51.1 | 5.79 | 4.07 | 1.52 | 16.7% | 18.9% | 7.1% | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| Jungmann | MIL | MIN | 132.1 | 4.28 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 0.88 | 1.44 | |
| Weaver | LAA | CWS | 169.1 | 4.62 | 4.92 | 1.26 | 52.4% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 1.38 | 0.73 |
| Danks | CWS | LAA | 189 | 4.90 | 4.62 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Miller | ARI | SFG | 218 | 3.34 | 4.22 | 1.28 | 21.1% | 19.6% | 8.6% | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| Cueto | SFG | ARI | 233.1 | 3.43 | 3.78 | 1.13 | 76.2% | 20.5% | 5.3% | 0.81 | 1.21 |
| Hill | OAK | NYY | 42 | 2.36 | 2.49 | 0.98 | 32.7% | 6.0% | 0.64 | 1.60 | |
| Severino | NYY | OAK | 73 | 3.33 | 3.75 | 1.29 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 1.23 | 1.95 | |
| Estrada | TOR | BAL | 194 | 3.11 | 4.58 | 1.06 | 27.8% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| Tillman | BAL | TOR | 185.1 | 5.00 | 4.63 | 1.38 | 42.9% | 16.6% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 1.20 |
| Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 251 | 1.72 | 2.73 | 0.86 | 50.0% | 27.0% | 5.3% | 0.43 | 2.46 |
| Finnegan | CIN | CHC | 65.2 | 3.15 | 4.02 | 1.16 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 1.37 | 1.67 | |
| Pelfrey | DET | KCR | 174.1 | 4.39 | 4.63 | 1.51 | 12.1% | 6.9% | 0.62 | 1.96 | |
| Volquez | KCR | DET | 218 | 3.43 | 4.30 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 18.7% | 8.6% | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TEX | 252.2 | 2.46 | 2.96 | 1.03 | 50.0% | 23.4% | 6.2% | 0.61 | 3.12 |
| Griffin | TEX | HOU | 11 | 3.27 | 6.02 | 1.36 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.82 | 0.65 | |
| Cole | PIT | SDP | 218.2 | 2.68 | 3.27 | 1.10 | 28.6% | 24.1% | 5.5% | 0.45 | 1.61 |
| Shields | SDP | PIT | 222.1 | 3.93 | 3.79 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 24.4% | 9.4% | 1.50 | 1.32 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
We’re treated to a star-studded array of pitchers on today’s half-and-half slate, with seven games on the early schedule and six games beginning after 7:00pm EST. The bounty leads off with the best pitcher in the game facing the offense with the lowest OPS in the National League.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at ATL) – He’s expensive ($13700 on DK), but considering that he was going for $14-15k for much of last season and that his context is most favorable, the marginal value of choosing Kershaw today is quite high, considering that he has 50-point upside and will earn his salary with even a standard outing. Expect his ownership rates to be ridiculous in Double-ups and 50/50 tournaments; let’s set the over/under at 75 percent at DK, though the fact that it is an extremely high-end pitching slate could spread the ownership rates a bit.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at CIN) – In an arm-heavy pool of pitchers, Arrieta stands out as the lone elite option on the evening schedule. He has picked up right where he left off in his Cy Young season of 2015, cruising through 22.0 innings of 1.23-ERA baseball with a clean 20:2 K:BB ratio in his first three starts this season. We have come to expect that hit rates will bounce all over the place and thus can’t be trusted, but check out Arrieta’s consistent line of hit rates since he became a Cub (H/9 from 2013-2016): 5.9-6.5-5.9-6.1; all of the numbers on the back of his baseball card are impressive, but the Cubbie hit rate is absolutely ridiculous. The Reds offense has been running on empty for the past seven days, with a mere .499 OPS and an inflated 27.2 percent strikeout rate during that stretch, adding another feather to Arrieta’s cap for today’s matchup.
David Price BOS (vs. TB) – Having three all-in pitchers on one half-slate is the type of phenomenon that is typically spared for Opening Day(s), so this morning’s schedule is drool-worthy. Facing his former mates, the Rays have the advantage of knowing his approach and stuff, and they’ll enjoy stacking the lineup with their best lefty mashers, though the platoon impact will be largely mitigated by the neutralization of Corey Dickerson from the Tampa lineup. Price has been on a tear to start the season, that is except in the category of run prevention (4.50 ERA), but he’s more than made up the difference with 27 strikeouts and just four walks in 18.0 innings, punching out eight or more hitters in each of his three starts. His pitch count has eclipsed triple digits in each turn, but he has also seen multiple runners cross the plate in each start.
Max Scherzer WSH (at MIA) – Scherzer’s numbers are solid though unspectacular so far, whiffing a better per inning over 20 frames with a 3.15 ERA and 2.9 BB/9, though the home run issues that plagued the right-hander last season are lurking again in 2016 (three in three games). For Scherzer, those numbers are disappointing, who for the last four years has registered 10.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, though his 3.12 ERA is a near match. What compounds the disappointment is that Scherzer was facing the Braves (twice) and the Phillies, possibly the two worst offenses in baseball and currently sporting the worst two marks for team OPS in the National League. Those are games that Scherzer is expected to dominate.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at SD) – The prospect of Gerrit Cole facing the Padres in San Diego sounds like a raise-worthy cause, but there are a few factors that keeps him just barely on the outside, looking in. His performance so far has been decidedly mediocre, striking out five batters in his better start and failing to make it out of the fifth inning in the other. For their part, the Padres have started hitting a bit, with 13 runs over their last three games, in an effort to discredit the notion that they are a total pushover. He’s the second-best arm on the list for the afternoon-only crowd, and the upside is considerable.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at TEX) – All it took was eight innings of shutout baseball and Keuchel’s numbers are looking a lot like those that won him the Cy hardware: a 2.18 ERA, 2-1 record, and 1.21 WHIP. He hasn’t struck out many batters, just 7.4 K/9, but prior to the second half of last season Keuchel’s only weakness was a modest strikeout rate. The red flag is the 11 walks in 20.2 innings, as the southpaw’s current rate of 13.1 percent is more than double the 5.8-percent walk rate that he put up from 2014-15. He gave away 10 freep asses in his first two games, but trimmed it to one walk in his eight-inning masterpiece.
Johnny Cueto SF (vs. ARI) – Cueto has contributed across the fantasy board this season, with three wins (despite one rough start) and 19:4 K:BB ratio in 21.1 innings of work. He has pitched at least 7.0 innings in all three of his starts, even the home game against LA that saw six Dodgers cross the plate on his watch. Cueto is a great pitcher who has the capacity to dominate on occasion, but the market seems to have overreacted with the salary pricing on DraftKings, where the Arizona bats have been dinged in salary like they’re facing Kershaw. I mean Paul Goldschmidt has a $4000 salary – he should be owned in 100 percent of leagues at that price point.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kershaw | 0.226 | 2.23 | 0.225 | 2.04 | 0.226 | 0.625 | 0.268 | 2.06 | 0.188 | 0.01 | 33.1% |
| Wisler | 0.413 | 5.07 | 0.279 | 4.39 | 0.246 | 0.731 | 0.289 | 4.96 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 15.4% |
| Karns | 0.314 | 3.07 | 0.306 | 4.44 | 0.253 | 0.724 | 0.291 | 4.12 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Anderson | 0.324 | 3.97 | 0.275 | 2.86 | 0.240 | 0.714 | 0.245 | 4.61 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 12.3% |
| Scherzer | 0.282 | 2.99 | 0.236 | 2.64 | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.264 | 2.86 | 0.204 | 0.01 | 30.3% |
| Koehler | 0.343 | 4.76 | 0.314 | 3.64 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.294 | 4.48 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Odorizzi | 0.267 | 2.85 | 0.324 | 3.76 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.276 | 3.47 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 22.0% |
| Price | 0.279 | 2.50 | 0.269 | 2.64 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.295 | 2.69 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 26.2% |
| Nolasco | 0.306 | 6.12 | 0.367 | 5.47 | 0.256 | 0.708 | 0.356 | 3.46 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 18.9% |
| Jungmann | 0.318 | 3.39 | 0.329 | 5.05 | 0.242 | 0.696 | 0.297 | 4.02 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Weaver | 0.343 | 4.15 | 0.327 | 5.10 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.277 | 4.89 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 13.3% |
| Danks | 0.316 | 5.44 | 0.355 | 4.72 | 0.235 | 0.678 | 0.307 | 4.50 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 16.4% |
| Miller | 0.319 | 3.12 | 0.279 | 3.55 | 0.266 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 3.72 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Cueto | 0.265 | 2.44 | 0.313 | 4.39 | 0.265 | 0.739 | 0.283 | 3.39 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Hill | 0.240 | 2.53 | 0.271 | 2.30 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.298 | 2.58 | 0.204 | 0.05 | 32.7% |
| Severino | 0.302 | 2.27 | 0.344 | 4.59 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.298 | 4.21 | 0.255 | 0.02 | 20.8% |
| Estrada | 0.279 | 3.09 | 0.277 | 3.13 | 0.256 | 0.762 | 0.223 | 4.32 | 0.206 | 0.01 | 18.3% |
| Tillman | 0.309 | 3.41 | 0.354 | 6.58 | 0.263 | 0.782 | 0.296 | 4.36 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 16.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.213 | 1.47 | 0.237 | 1.94 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.245 | 2.38 | 0.185 | 0.01 | 27.0% |
| Finnegan | 0.336 | 5.06 | 0.275 | 2.54 | 0.235 | 0.685 | 0.210 | 4.71 | 0.189 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Pelfrey | 0.375 | 5.47 | 0.313 | 3.53 | 0.264 | 0.729 | 0.337 | 4.07 | 0.304 | 0.00 | 12.1% |
| Volquez | 0.302 | 3.00 | 0.301 | 3.87 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.289 | 3.77 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 18.7% |
| Keuchel | 0.198 | 2.47 | 0.268 | 2.45 | 0.255 | 0.735 | 0.267 | 2.92 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 23.4% |
| Griffin | 0.249 | 0.751 | 0.229 | 4.83 | 0.214 | 0.06 | 12.5% | ||||
| Cole | 0.267 | 2.17 | 0.282 | 3.17 | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.305 | 2.65 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 24.1% |
| Shields | 0.372 | 4.51 | 0.298 | 3.39 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 0.295 | 4.54 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 24.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
James Shields SD (vs. PIT) – Shields is coming off of an odd season, at least for him. He struck out more than a batter-per-inning for the first time in his 10-year career (9.6 K/9), he shot way past his previous career-worst walk rate (2.7 BB/9), putting up 3.6 BB/9. Basically, all of his true outcomes were way up, including a home run rate that spiked to 1.5 HR/9; this year, it’s even worse, with four homers allowed in his 20 innings of work, a walk rate of 3.2 BB/9 that would qualify as the second-worst of his career and a K rate that has plummeted to 6.3 K/9.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at BOS) – Odorizzi faces a tall task, both in terms of his formidable opponent and in dealing with the menacing fortress of Fenway. He displayed his range of upside and downside in his first two starts of the season, striking out 10 batters while shutting down the mighty Blue Jays in his first turn, followed by a bruising in Baltimore in his next game.
Luis Severino NY (vs. OAK) – I’ve spoken to a few Severino owners lately who are very worried about him and his fantasy impact (or lack thereof) for the rest of the season. Giving up 10 hits to the Tigers while only notching 15 outs exposed some weaknesses. Then things got worse before they got better, with eight hits and four runs given up to the Mariners in another start that lasted less than 6.0 innings. Tonight he gets his softest opponent yet, and for his sake I hope that he can shake the butterflies.
Nathan Karns SEA (at CLE)
Shelby Miller ARI (at SF)
Rich Hill OAK (at NYY)
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. DET)
Taylor Jungmann MIL (vs. MIN)
A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. HOU)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at MIL)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. CHC)
Mike Pelfrey DET (at KC)
Cody Anderson CLE (vs. SEA)
Matt Wisler ATL (vs. LAD)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. WAS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jered Weaver LAA (at CHW)
John Danks CHW (vs. LAA) – Unless heavy winds are blowing in at the Cell, then I expect this one to be a bloodbath, though the relative weakness of the two lineups could limit the damage to the pitching lines.
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