Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, July 7th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-08 02:17:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Santiago	LAA	TBR	272.0	4.04	4.58	1.28	16.7%	20.50%	9.5%	1.52	0.65
Snell	TBR	LAA	25.2	3.86	5.42	1.71	0.0%	16.70%	12.5%	0.35	1.10
Glasnow	PIT	STL
Wainwright	STL	PIT	131.1	4.04	4.20	1.29	84.2%	17.70%	5.8%	0.55	1.61
Verlander	DET	TOR	245.0	3.71	3.83	1.09	35.0%	23.10%	6.2%	1.07	0.76
Hutchison	TOR	DET	157.0	5.56	4.13	1.48	31.6%	19.40%	6.8%	1.38	1.07
Nova	NYY	CLE	168.2	5.07	4.31	1.39	25.0%	16.00%	6.8%	1.39	1.76
Bauer	CLE	NYY	271.1	4.01	4.15	1.26	38.5%	22.60%	9.9%	1.00	1.15
Giolito	WAS	NYM
Colon	NYM	WAS	288.2	3.74	4.12	1.22	42.1%	16.60%	3.4%	1.09	1.19
Duffey	MIN	TEX	131.2	4.51	3.92	1.37	0.0%	19.80%	6.0%	1.23	1.63
Chi Gonzalez	TEX	MIN	72.2	4.33	5.66	1.33	0.0%	10.20%	11.5%	0.74	1.63
Harrell	ATL	CHC
Hammel	CHC	ATL	262.0	3.64	3.78	1.16	47.4%	22.60%	6.4%	1.24	1.07
Hill	OAK	HOU	99.0	2.09	3.22	0.98	0.0%	29.40%	7.9%	0.36	1.43
Fister	HOU	OAK	201.1	3.93	4.62	1.34	58.3%	14.80%	6.6%	1.30	1.40
Paxton	SEA	KCR	107.1	4.02	4.17	1.54	50.0%	20.40%	8.7%	0.92	1.51
Duffy	KCR	SEA	212.0	3.74	4.08	1.27	57.1%	21.30%	7.8%	1.10	0.95
Morgan	PHI	COL	145.2	5.25	4.67	1.39	0.0%	16.00%	5.2%	1.67	0.71
Bettis	COL	PHI	210.1	4.96	4.11	1.46	0.0%	18.40%	7.1%	0.98	1.84
Pomeranz	SDP	LAD	181.0	3.13	3.71	1.14	25.0%	25.70%	9.4%	0.80	1.22
Ryu	LAD	SDP

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

It’s a very light slate today, particularly on the top end, and no pitcher comes particularly close to All-In status. The Raise portion of the menu is also light on fare, and in fact the few Raise-worthy options were each left for dead on the DFS pitcher charts in early April, exemplifying the lack of trustworthy arms that are available today. There is a trio of young pitching prospects, with each player possessing a high degree of upside that could vault him to Raise-level numbers today, though each arm carries the risk inherent with such green pitchers as they get a taste of the highest level.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Rich Hill OAK (at HOU) – Hill is the best pitcher on the board today, and though he was a mess at the season’s outset and recently missed a month with a hamstring injury, his free-swinging opponent opens up the possibility of a huge K count for Hill in today’s matchup. He was held to 83 pitches in his first start back from injury despite being both effective and economical with his pitches, tossing 6.0 frames and giving up just two runs, and Hill will likely be given a full-length leash in tonight’s game – he threw 99 or more pitches in ten straight turns before hitting the DL.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. NYY) – Bauer has been dominant over the past month, including five shutout frames in his last outing while pitching the 15th through 19th innings of a marathon match with the Blue Jays. Including that outing, Bauer has compiled a 1.48 ERA and 40:12 K:BB ratio in his last 42.2 innings, stretching back to early June. He has greatly simplified his approach recently, with mechanics that are easier to repeat and a truncated repertoire that emphasizes his best pitches, and the positive results should encourage Bauer to keep it simple for the foreseeable future. The strikeouts might have taken a small step backward, but the accompanying slice to his walk rate is a welcome trade-off for the right-hander.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. SEA) – Duffy was added to the starting rotation in mid-May, and though it took him a little while to build up his pitch count, the southpaw has now tossed 100 or more pitches in three consecutive starts, including 110 throws against the Phillies in his last start, coming within one out of the first complete game of his career. He’s been on an excellent run since the start of June, with a 3.02 ERA and 53:9 K:BB ratio over 44.2 innings in his last seven starts. He can get a bit walk-happy at times, but Duffy hasn’t allowed a free pass in his last two starts covering 16.2 innings, and he just seems to be getting stronger as he cements his role in the Royals starting rotation.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Santiago	0.280	2.90	0.332	4.42	0.267	0.782	0.254	4.96	0.229	0.00	20.5%
Snell			0.317	3.38	0.243	0.696	0.333	3.86	0.276	0.03	16.7%
Glasnow					0.264	0.759
Wainwright	0.311	4.55	0.306	3.67	0.263	0.733	0.317	3.29	0.268	0.01	17.7%
Verlander	0.274	2.95	0.299	4.50	0.259	0.782	0.270	3.67	0.226	0.01	23.1%
Hutchison	0.328	5.55	0.392	5.58	0.270	0.746	0.340	4.52	0.293	0.00	19.4%
Nova	0.375	5.38	0.320	4.82	0.254	0.737	0.298	4.84	0.273	0.00	16.0%
Bauer	0.301	3.81	0.302	4.21	0.248	0.730	0.275	4.03	0.227	0.00	22.6%
Giolito					0.241	0.710
Colon	0.315	3.56	0.303	3.93	0.246	0.718	0.300	3.82	0.269	0.00	16.6%
Duffey	0.303	2.59	0.358	6.26	0.258	0.739	0.319	4.05	0.275	0.01	19.8%
Chi Gonzalez	0.316	4.98	0.275	3.76	0.243	0.699	0.232	4.94	0.222	0.01	10.2%
Harrell					0.247	0.740
Hammel	0.327	3.69	0.288	3.61	0.252	0.676	0.274	3.99	0.233	0.00	22.6%
Hill	0.198	1.88	0.254	2.16	0.243	0.743	0.266	2.58	0.187	0.02	29.4%
Fister	0.353	4.51	0.310	3.34	0.250	0.701	0.289	4.74	0.269	0.00	14.8%
Paxton	0.437	6.63	0.295	3.46	0.275	0.741	0.336	3.81	0.278	0.01	20.4%
Duffy	0.238	2.00	0.336	4.20	0.260	0.736	0.294	4.13	0.248	0.00	21.3%
Morgan	0.317	4.01	0.366	5.63	0.256	0.710	0.306	4.99	0.285	0.00	16.0%
Bettis	0.321	4.57	0.360	5.33	0.244	0.684	0.329	4.00	0.282	0.00	18.4%
Pomeranz	0.238	1.92	0.283	3.68	0.252	0.728	0.260	3.40	0.203	0.00	25.7%
Ryu					0.253	0.717

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Justin Verlander DET (at TOR) – The right-hander was pummeled by Cleveland two starts ago, giving up eight runs over 4.2 innings in the midst of the Tribe’s winning streak, but Verlander has otherwise been a workhorse over the last two months. He has pitched 7.0 or more innings in the other 10 of his past 11 turns, posting eight quality starts and eight games of at least seven strikeouts over that stretch. He bounced back from the Cleveland fiasco with seven strong frames against the Rays in his last start, including five baserunners and eight strikeouts over seven innings pitched. The Blue Jays present an intimidating challenge, but the absence of Jose Bautista from the Toronto lineup takes some of the sting out of this matchup.

Tyler Glasnow PIT (at STL) – Glasnow makes his much-anticipated major league debut tonight against the Cardinals, joining Jameson Taillon in what has become a prospect-rich rotation in Pittsburgh. Glasnow has been virtually I hittable at Triple-A this season, surrendering just a 1.78 ERA and 5.3 H/9 across 96 innings for Indianapolis, though his career-long problem of issuing too many walks has continued in 2016, with 4.9 BB/9 for the season and a recent stretch that was particularly brutal, in which Glasnow gave away 20 free passes over 23.2 innings during his last four starts of June. The question of his fantasy value for today likely boils down to whether the strikeouts will be high enough to counterbalance the inevitable walks against the Cards, as gamers hope that his 10.6 K/9 in the minors translates into an impressive K count at the highest level.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. PIT) – Waino has shaken the bouts of ineffectiveness that plagued his first two months of the 2016 season, and since the calendar flipped to June he has compiled a 3.03 ERA with a K-per-inning and just 11 walks over 38.2 innings of work. He had a forgettable outing against the Royals two turns ago, including six runs and 10 hits allowed over 5.0 frames, but the other five of his last six turns have each qualified as quality starts and he has cleared more than 15 points on DraftKings in each of those contests.

Drew Pomeranz SD (at LAD) – The magic of his first couple months has mostly won off, but Pomeranz has still been very effective in bursts over the past several weeks. He’s given up just one run over his last two starts, covering 14.0 total innings pitched, with 13 strikeouts, eight hits and just one walk allowed over that brief stretch. He has whiffed at least six batters in each of his last seven starts, and though he surrendered three homers to the Nats a few turns ago, the southpaw has given up just eight bombs in 96 innings for the season.

Lucas Giolito WAS (at NYM) – His first career start was interrupted by rain after just 4.0 innings and 45 pitches, so tonight’s contest will hopefully mark the first full-length start of Giolito’s career. The Nats took it easy with Giolito’s per-gale workload for the first several weeks of the season, but he was permitted to throw between 84 and 106 pitches in each of his last eight starts in the minors, including pitch counts of 98 or more throws in four of those outings. Despite the longer leash, Giolito only had one start with an impressive strikeout total (12 Ks in 7.0 frames), and he has topped six strikeouts in just three of his 15 games this year, with the 12-K gem marking his only turn with more than eight whiffs. His stuff is too good for the K-rate to not spike eventually, but with just a lone strikeout in his abbreviated debut, there is little indication that his strikeouts are going to suddenly jump off the page in today’s game. Then again, you never know with a talent like Giolito, who might have more in the tank as he gets comfortable at the highest level.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. ATL) – Hammel is coming off one of the worst games of the season, for any pitcher. He gave up an astounding five home runs and ten total tallies against the Mets in 4.0 innings on July 1st, and though he escaped the first frame with a clean scoreboard, he gave up two or three runs in each of the next four innings, culminated by an Asdrubal home run with zero outs in the fifth. His 2.58 ERA was due for a correction, but all of the regression occurred at once as his ERA shot up nearly a full run in the outing. The Braves are just what the doctor ordered to get Hammel back on track, though it is not encouraging that he gave up eight hits (including two homers) in 5.2 innings against Atlanta when he faced them a month ago.

Blake Snell TB (vs. LAA) – The outstanding strikeout rate that Snell exhibited in the minors has yet to translate to the big leagues, as the southpaw has a modest 7.0 K/9 thus far in the majors and hasn’t topped four strikeouts in any of the four starts since his recall. The walks have followed him to the highest level, however, and the walks have actually matched the Ks in each of his last four turns, with at least three free passes in each game despite pitching 5.1 or less innings in three of them. His current K:BB of 20:15 will not suffice at this level, and Snell will need to turn things around quickly lest he finds himself back at Durham.

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. WAS)

James Paxton SEA (at KC)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. OAK)

Ivan Nova NYY (at CLE)

Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (vs. SD) – It’s Ryu’s first start in two years and he gets a soft landing in his return by facing the light-hitting Padres. He has been kept on a short leash during his rehab stint, as even in his final Triple-A tuneup he was limited to just 84 pitches. He was also hit hard in the minors during his rehab, and between the ineffectiveness and the likelihood for a short outing, Ryu is best left untouched by DFS gamers today.

Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. DET)

Hector Santiago LAA (at TB)