Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, May 19th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
Thursday, May 19th
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karns | SEA | BAL | 188 | 3.64 | 3.91 | 1.29 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 1.15 | 1.16 | |
| Wilson | BAL | SEA | 66.2 | 3.24 | 4.87 | 1.25 | 10.2% | 6.6% | 0.54 | 1.62 | |
| Hammel | CHC | MIL | 211.1 | 3.36 | 3.57 | 1.17 | 47.4% | 23.7% | 6.4% | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| Guerra | MIL | CHC | 22 | 4.50 | 4.24 | 1.18 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 0.82 | 1.00 | |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | PIT | 105.1 | 5.21 | 4.17 | 1.55 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.79 | 0.80 | |
| Locke | PIT | ATL | 206.1 | 4.67 | 4.36 | 1.46 | 66.7% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 0.87 | 2.00 |
| Tomlin | CLE | CIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Adleman | CIN | CLE | 16 | 3.38 | 4.57 | 1.38 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 1.13 | 1.19 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | NYM | 182.1 | 3.31 | 2.81 | 1.10 | 52.4% | 29.7% | 5.5% | 0.89 | 1.29 |
| Harvey | NYM | WAS | 235 | 3.14 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 24.0% | 5.2% | 0.84 | 1.27 | |
| Gray | COL | STL | 69.1 | 5.19 | 3.36 | 1.43 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 0.78 | 1.64 | |
| Wacha | STL | COL | 228.2 | 3.35 | 4.05 | 1.25 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 7.8% | 0.91 | 1.46 |
| McHugh | HOU | CWS | 244 | 4.17 | 4.00 | 1.35 | 42.9% | 19.3% | 6.1% | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Sale | CWS | HOU | 268 | 3.02 | 2.69 | 1.01 | 64.3% | 30.4% | 4.8% | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| Estrada | TOR | MIN | 224.2 | 3.08 | 4.51 | 1.06 | 27.8% | 19.0% | 8.1% | 1.12 | 0.67 |
| Santana | MIN | TOR | 137.1 | 3.87 | 4.38 | 1.34 | 38.9% | 18.6% | 8.2% | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| Samardzija | SFG | SDP | 270.1 | 4.53 | 4.08 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 18.5% | 5.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Shields | SDP | SFG | 254.1 | 3.75 | 3.83 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 24.2% | 9.5% | 1.38 | 1.35 |
| Stripling | LAD | LAA | 38 | 4.26 | 4.35 | 1.32 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 0.47 | 1.72 | |
| Chacin | LAA | LAD | 60.1 | 4.18 | 3.82 | 1.26 | 18.2% | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.34 | 1.66 |
| Nova | NYY | OAK | 118.1 | 4.79 | 4.34 | 1.36 | 25.0% | 14.6% | 7.0% | 1.22 | 1.86 |
| Graveman | OAK | NYY | 152.2 | 4.48 | 4.43 | 1.43 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 1.47 | 1.71 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. HOU) – Sale didn’t check with fantasy gamers before adjusting to this softer approach, eschewing velocity and strikeouts for command and quick innings, but all in all I think that his managers have to be happy with the results. The lanky lefty has pitched 7.0 or more innings in seven of his eight starts this season, and he has allowed zero or one run in five of last six starts – in the other turn, he allowed two runs. He hasn’t registered a double-digit strikeout game yet this season, despite the generous inning counts per game, but the Astros have a way of coaxing large strikeout totals from rival pitchers (their 405 batter Ks lead the majors by a comfortable margin). Despite the lack of any games with massive K counts, Sale has tossed a couple of nine-strikeout games and the Astros might open up the door for him to reach that elusive second digit.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at NYM) – Strasburg is thiiis close to being in Sale’s class today, but Stras has been a bit more inconsistent with the run prevention and is facing an opponent that, while not in the Astros pace-setting stratosphere, still has the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the game at 23.1 percent. The strikeouts are key, because the potential for a huge strikeout day is high with Strasburg on a start-to-start basis; he already has three games of double-digit Ks this season. He’s stayed in to finish the sixth inning in every start this season, though his ERA has risen for five consecutive starts, a 33.1-inning stretch that covers a 4.05 ERA but a massive total of 44 strikeouts, offsetting any damage from a DFS perspective.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. WAS) – Just when you think it’s safe to trust Matt Harvey, he gets grounded by the high altitude of Coors Field. Going into his May 13 start against the Rockies in Denver, Harvey had allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts, but he was done in by the laws of physics, coughing up 11 hits and five runs over 5.2 innings. At least he broke a string by posting his first walk-free game of the season, but enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that batters are so enticed by the results on contact by swinging more freely in Colorado. Free of the Coors shackles, Harvey now has to worry about how to get out Bryce Harper.
James Shields SD (vs. SF) – Shields’ velocity was in free-fall during April, but he has since brought the radar-gun readings back in line with the past few seasons. With the velocity have come the strikeouts, as Shields has 17 Ks over his last two games and 13.0 innings pitched, this after being capped at a game-high of six strikeouts over his first six turns. He has an interesting streak going, in which every single start has ended with either 6.0 or 7.0 innings pitched by the right-hander. He pitched well against the Giants when he faced them near the end of April, allowing one run over 7.0 innings but recording just two strikeouts on the evening.
Jeff Samardzija SF (at SD) – Petco Park is playing like a pitcher’s park against this season, though part of that might be a mirage created by the complete ineptitude of the Padres offense. The Friars have the lowest team batting average and the lowest team OBP in baseball, with the most batter Ks in the National League. The Shark, meanwhile, has been on the prowl, posting a 2.88 ERA on the season while limiting the walks and homers, though the old strikeout rate of 8.0 K/9 or higher appears to have gone missing and been replaced by a less powerful model.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karns | 0.303 | 2.91 | 0.312 | 4.45 | 0.259 | 0.766 | 0.288 | 4.04 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Wilson | 0.303 | 3.03 | 0.305 | 3.48 | 0.242 | 0.721 | 0.275 | 3.95 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 10.2% |
| Hammel | 0.310 | 2.57 | 0.295 | 3.96 | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.288 | 3.54 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Guerra | 0.282 | 4.41 | 0.250 | 0.741 | 0.286 | 3.63 | 0.247 | 0.03 | 18.4% | ||
| Foltynewicz | 0.404 | 5.63 | 0.349 | 4.87 | 0.264 | 0.736 | 0.340 | 4.95 | 0.3 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Locke | 0.351 | 6.04 | 0.322 | 4.25 | 0.225 | 0.611 | 0.312 | 4.18 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Tomlin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Adleman | 0.252 | 0.720 | 0.295 | 4.57 | 0.254 | 0.06 | 19.4% | ||||
| Strasburg | 0.247 | 2.42 | 0.311 | 4.23 | 0.244 | 0.718 | 0.308 | 2.73 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 29.7% |
| Harvey | 0.315 | 3.71 | 0.254 | 2.60 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.294 | 3.11 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 24.0% |
| Gray | 0.319 | 3.44 | 0.345 | 6.88 | 0.266 | 0.759 | 0.365 | 3.08 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 25.1% |
| Wacha | 0.282 | 3.35 | 0.312 | 3.34 | 0.269 | 0.773 | 0.282 | 3.82 | 0.239 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| McHugh | 0.308 | 4.22 | 0.337 | 4.11 | 0.252 | 0.705 | 0.322 | 3.71 | 0.273 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Sale | 0.263 | 2.55 | 0.271 | 3.11 | 0.247 | 0.754 | 0.295 | 2.75 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 30.4% |
| Estrada | 0.277 | 3.00 | 0.275 | 3.19 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.220 | 4.25 | 0.201 | 0.00 | 19.0% |
| Santana | 0.345 | 4.87 | 0.294 | 2.87 | 0.260 | 0.777 | 0.296 | 4.00 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 18.6% |
| Samardzija | 0.345 | 5.40 | 0.296 | 3.74 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 0.300 | 3.98 | 0.262 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Shields | 0.363 | 4.04 | 0.302 | 3.49 | 0.264 | 0.741 | 0.298 | 4.40 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 24.2% |
| Stripling | 0.261 | 1.89 | 0.341 | 6.63 | 0.251 | 0.710 | 0.284 | 3.36 | 0.236 | 0.03 | 18.4% |
| Chacin | 0.346 | 5.52 | 0.278 | 2.90 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.280 | 4.21 | 0.246 | 0.02 | 20.5% |
| Nova | 0.370 | 5.17 | 0.310 | 4.45 | 0.249 | 0.701 | 0.288 | 4.75 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 14.6% |
| Graveman | 0.328 | 3.42 | 0.360 | 5.54 | 0.246 | 0.733 | 0.296 | 5.01 | 0.274 | 0.01 | 15.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jon Gray COL (at STL) – His first two starts of the season were brutal, giving up 16 hits and 11 runs in 8.2 innings across the two turns. In his three starts since, Gray has posted a 1.80 ERA with 24 punchouts and just four walks, a stretch that includes a home turn at altitude. He’s punched out double-digit hitters in two of his five starts, though one of those performances was against the Padres so it receives an asterisk. Gray has scored between 24.55 and 26.70 points on the DraftKings in each of his last three starts, after coming in at 2.30 points combined for his two starts in April. He has a very tough opponent but still flies very much under the radar, such that Gray could turn out to be a slick GPP play.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. COL) – Of the 24 runs that Wacha has given up this season, seven of them have been unearned (29.2 percent), with an artificially-low ERA that hides some of his struggles this season. In his first start of the year, Wacha gave up five runs over 4.1 innings and registered just three strikeouts; in his most recent outing, the right-hander gave up six runs over 4.0 innings and struck out just two batters. Between those two disaster starts, Wacha posted a 2.54 ERA over a six-start run and recorded 35 strikeouts over 39.0 innings. He is good for about 7.5 K/9, so his value lies in run prevention and chewing up some innings, but there’s no guarantee that either will happen against the Rockies.
Jason Hammel CHC (at MIL) – Hammel’s playing a bit over his head, as the pitcher with a career 4.41 ERA is flying around with an Arrieta-like 1.77 mark on the heels of an NL-best 0.2 HR/9 (one home run surrendered in 40.2 innings). His walk rate has spiked in the wrong direction, but a career-low hit rate has kept the WHIP in line. Basically, Hammel is a walking magnet for regression.
Marco Estrada TOR (at MIN) – Though they are the toughest elements to control, the easiest path to a respectable ERA is to limit the hits and homers, something that Estrada has done beter this season than any other campaign of his career. The 3.7 BB/9 are untenable, so hopefully he can firm up the control as the 6.6 H/9 inevitably rises, balancing out for a playable ratio. The biggest takeaway from this season is the drop to his home run rate, as the pitcher who had never surrendered fewer than 1.2 HR/9 in any season has given up just 0.8 HR/9 this season, though it’s still early enough in he season that Estrada is a two-homer game away from being right back in line with career norms.
Josh Tomlin CLE (at CIN)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. ATL)
Ivan Nova NYY (at OAK)
Nate Karns SEA (at BAL) – Over in the matchup section at the Daily SP Hub, Karns is facing a sea of red that covers the categories of opponents wOBA and OPS regardless of split. The Orioles have a top-tier offense when the context is neutral, but they receive extra boosts when facing right-handers or playing at home, both of which ring true today, and in the last seven days the O’s are doing their typical top-10 raking. Karns can rack of the strikeouts (24.9-percent K rate, 9.4 K/9), but his penchant to serve up home runs has been persistent throughout his major league career, which is a bad trait to have when facing a power-heavy offense in a ballpark that is one of the best in the majors to leave the yard. Karns is a sneaky play in the right scenario, but this is not that scenario.
Ross Stripling LAD (at LAA)
Collin McHugh HOU (at CHW)
Tim Adleman CIN (vs. CLE)
Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. NYY)
Jhoulys Chacin LAA (vs. LAD)
Tyler Wilson BAL (vs. SEA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at PIT)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. TOR)
Junior Guerra MIL (vs. CHC) – The Cubs have the highest-scoring offense in the National League yet have compiled the second-fewest strikeouts in the circuit. It’s a nightmare scenario for opposing pitchers.
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