Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 23rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O’Sullivan | PHI | NYY | 69 | 5.09 | 4.89 | 1.42 | 11.3% | 6.3% | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | PHI | 129 | 5.30 | 3.32 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 21.6% | 4.4% | 1.74 | 1.43 |
| Smith | CIN | PIT | |||||||||
| Locke | PIT | CIN | 205.1 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 66.7% | 17.0% | 7.8% | 1.01 | 1.76 |
| Wood | ATL | WAS | 251 | 2.98 | 3.47 | 1.23 | 58.3% | 22.3% | 6.8% | 0.75 | 1.37 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ATL | 260.1 | 3.73 | 2.85 | 1.23 | 52.4% | 26.5% | 5.3% | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| Price | DET | CLE | 345.2 | 3.05 | 2.94 | 1.09 | 52.4% | 25.6% | 4.2% | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| Salazar | CLE | DET | 183.1 | 3.98 | 3.08 | 1.30 | 12.5% | 27.2% | 7.0% | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 304.2 | 4.08 | 4.27 | 1.25 | 47.6% | 17.8% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 289.2 | 2.95 | 3.35 | 1.19 | 55.0% | 24.2% | 8.0% | 0.53 | 1.61 |
| Martinez | STL | MIA | 169.2 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.34 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 0.64 | 2.07 | |
| Urena | MIA | STL | 32.1 | 4.18 | 4.75 | 1.33 | 9.8% | 7.5% | 0.84 | 2.07 | |
| Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 199.2 | 4.24 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 27.8% | 21.9% | 11.7% | 0.95 | 1.28 |
| Kelly | BOS | BAL | 167.1 | 4.68 | 4.26 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% | 0.81 | 1.98 |
| Greinke | LAD | CHC | 297 | 2.42 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 5.1% | 0.79 | 1.63 |
| Hammel | CHC | LAD | 260.1 | 3.28 | 3.34 | 1.08 | 47.4% | 23.2% | 5.5% | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| Chavez | OAK | TEX | 224.2 | 3.12 | 3.59 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 22.1% | 7.3% | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Chi Gonzalez | TEX | OAK | |||||||||
| Samardzija | CHW | MIN | 314 | 3.50 | 3.28 | 1.15 | 60.0% | 21.7% | 4.6% | 0.89 | 1.43 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | CHW | 102.1 | 4.13 | 5.06 | 1.45 | 10.6% | 9.2% | 0.88 | 1.77 | |
| Niese | NYM | MIL | 264.2 | 3.64 | 3.83 | 1.33 | 41.2% | 17.1% | 6.1% | 0.92 | 1.82 |
| Fiers | MIL | NYM | 145.2 | 3.34 | 3.29 | 1.22 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 0.99 | 0.81 | |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 193.2 | 3.53 | 3.91 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 0.88 | 1.24 |
| Kendrick | COL | ARI | 283.2 | 5.01 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 30.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| McHugh | HOU | LAA | 240.1 | 3.56 | 3.40 | 1.14 | 42.9% | 23.0% | 6.3% | 0.97 | 1.24 |
| Wilson | LAA | HOU | 268.2 | 4.12 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 20.4% | 9.8% | 0.84 | 1.48 |
| Guthrie | KCR | SEA | 274 | 4.50 | 4.55 | 1.35 | 42.1% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Montgomery | SEA | KCR | 26.1 | 2.73 | 5.10 | 1.14 | 11.3% | 7.6% | 0.34 | 1.09 | |
| Despaigne | SDP | SFG | 164 | 3.95 | 4.22 | 1.24 | 100.0% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 0.82 | 1.75 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | SDP | 310.2 | 3.01 | 3.07 | 1.08 | 47.6% | 24.6% | 4.8% | 0.90 | 1.21 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
David Price DET (at CLE) – Price faced these Indians two starts ago and had his way with them, needing just 93 pitches while tossing a complete-game shutout with 8 strikeouts and scattering 7 hits. Price is on a bit of a run, not having surrendered more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts, including a pair of complete games and exceeding 10 strikeouts twice. He K rate has fallen from last season’s career-high of 26.9 percent, but the current pace of 22.6 percent is just a whisker off his career rate and is more in line with expectations. The big question is whether the Indians can string together hits in the same inning, as Price has a tendency to stay around the strike zone and opponents can run up the score with a swing-early approach.
Zack Greinke LAD (at CHC) – Greinke’s upside might be lacking in the sense that he has punched out a modest 22.7 percent of batters this season and has yet to crack the double-digit threshold for K’s, but the right-hander has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game when looking at his run prevention. If we give him a mulligan for his June 2 start in Colorado, then Greinke has allowed three runs or less in every sea-level outing this season, and he hasn’t bequeathed more than a pair of tallies since April. Despite his workhorse status, the Dodgers have been very careful with Greinke’s workload this season, with him exceeding 100 pitches just twice since April and capping at 105 throws, putting yet another damper on his upside.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. SD) – The Padres are primed for these intradivision battles with elite southpaws, having stacked the lineup with lefty-mashing batters with big power. The strategy worked to perfection against Bummer back in April, with the southpaw getting just nine outs while the Pads rattled off 10 hits and plated five runners. Mad Bum got his revenge a few starts later, blanking these same Pads over 7.3 innings on May 4, and round three is set to be a battle as Bumgarner has pitched 8.0 innings in each of his last three turns while striking out 27 batters against 4 walks in the span.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (vs. TOR) – The right-hander has been hit or miss this year, but the game log and seasonal ERA of 2.18 reveal that his hits vastly outnumber the misses. He was on a dominant run to start the month, with a 3-start streak of 38 strikeouts and zero walks and just one earned run allowed across 23.0 innings, but he has been a bit more hittable in his last couple of turns: 8 strikeouts, 3 walks, and 6 earned runs allowed across 12.0 innings. His opponents (the White Sox and Nationals) were less formidable than the Blue Jays, and Archer has had a tendency to lose his delivery for spurts at a time this season, a combination that keeps him locked out of Raise country for today.
Carlos Martinez STL (at MIA) – Martinez has a volatile delivery, with a high-powered motion that helps to explain the egregious walk rate (10.5 percent) but makes his extremely consistent game log tougher to explain. Aside from a two-start vacation in which opponents scored a combined 14 runs in 9.0 innings (this was at the beginning of May), Martinez has kept the scoreboard clean, not having allowed more than 2 runs in any of his other 12 starts this season. If he stays on this trajectory, then his owners will be able to overlook the inevitable homer that he coughs up to Giancarlo Stanton.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. DET) – Salazar has been an ideal GPP pick in 2015, busting the double-digit K barrier in 4 of his 12 starts while carrying the ever-present risk of blowup. He has given up a homer in 10 of his turns this season, and the strikeouts have been relatively modest over his last five starts, which included 31 punchouts, 10 walks, and an ERA of 3.64 across 29.7 innings. The ERA in that stretch is right in line with his seasonal run-prevention (a 3.56 ERA), but without the K’s his value takes a tremendous hit, dents that only get larger when considering the power potential of his opponent.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O’Sullivan | 0.426 | 6.49 | 0.309 | 4.22 | 0.258 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 5.62 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 11.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.221 | 5.27 | 0.397 | 5.31 | 0.256 | 0.681 | 0.345 | 4.46 | 0.297 | 0.00 | 21.6% |
| Smith | 0.258 | 0.697 | |||||||||
| Locke | 0.271 | 3.40 | 0.336 | 4.43 | 0.252 | 0.757 | 0.293 | 4.23 | 0.259 | 94.38 | 17.0% |
| Wood | 0.290 | 1.93 | 0.305 | 3.31 | 0.254 | 0.720 | 0.309 | 3.30 | 0.25 | 82.29 | 22.3% |
| Strasburg | 0.303 | 3.25 | 0.321 | 4.13 | 0.265 | 0.712 | 0.331 | 3.12 | 0.257 | 93.34 | 26.5% |
| Price | 0.290 | 2.70 | 0.280 | 3.16 | 0.258 | 0.722 | 0.301 | 2.82 | 0.237 | 107.71 | 25.6% |
| Salazar | 0.306 | 3.68 | 0.334 | 4.20 | 0.273 | 0.739 | 0.333 | 3.52 | 0.257 | 96.78 | 27.2% |
| Dickey | 0.312 | 3.46 | 0.323 | 4.57 | 0.243 | 0.683 | 0.259 | 4.60 | 0.234 | 103.02 | 17.8% |
| Archer | 0.269 | 2.58 | 0.289 | 3.42 | 0.259 | 0.758 | 0.296 | 2.98 | 0.228 | 98.57 | 24.2% |
| Martinez | 0.341 | 4.28 | 0.273 | 2.78 | 0.254 | 0.666 | 0.312 | 3.41 | 0.243 | 37.70 | 23.5% |
| Urena | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.352 | 5.06 | 0.276 | 0.751 | 0.286 | 4.62 | 0.273 | 71.86 | 9.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.340 | 4.69 | 0.301 | 3.69 | 0.262 | 0.724 | 0.297 | 4.21 | 0.242 | 92.29 | 21.9% |
| Kelly | 0.297 | 3.58 | 0.334 | 5.90 | 0.253 | 0.734 | 0.286 | 4.22 | 0.248 | 94.77 | 17.0% |
| Greinke | 0.273 | 1.90 | 0.283 | 2.85 | 0.239 | 0.703 | 0.293 | 2.97 | 0.234 | 99.78 | 24.4% |
| Hammel | 0.300 | 2.60 | 0.281 | 3.79 | 0.259 | 0.789 | 0.270 | 3.65 | 0.227 | 94.63 | 23.2% |
| Chavez | 0.291 | 2.80 | 0.297 | 3.51 | 0.254 | 0.726 | 0.297 | 3.49 | 0.243 | 76.43 | 22.1% |
| Chi Gonzalez | 0.268 | 0.744 | |||||||||
| Samardzija | 0.313 | 3.31 | 0.292 | 3.65 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.300 | 3.34 | 0.249 | 102.09 | 21.7% |
| Pelfrey | 0.312 | 3.96 | 0.358 | 4.30 | 0.245 | 0.666 | 0.287 | 4.93 | 0.271 | 92.11 | 10.6% |
| Niese | 0.303 | 3.66 | 0.338 | 3.63 | 0.210 | 0.647 | 0.309 | 3.89 | 0.27 | 93.28 | 17.1% |
| Fiers | 0.304 | 3.33 | 0.302 | 3.35 | 0.240 | 0.663 | 0.303 | 3.37 | 0.238 | 86.79 | 26.0% |
| Anderson | 0.308 | 3.40 | 0.330 | 3.65 | 0.272 | 0.772 | 0.303 | 3.79 | 0.257 | 92.47 | 19.3% |
| Kendrick | 0.377 | 5.50 | 0.327 | 4.65 | 0.264 | 0.726 | 0.285 | 5.03 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 13.1% |
| McHugh | 0.289 | 3.32 | 0.304 | 3.83 | 0.244 | 0.692 | 0.281 | 3.58 | 0.232 | 99.38 | 23.0% |
| Wilson | 0.267 | 3.86 | 0.324 | 4.21 | 0.242 | 0.728 | 0.293 | 4.04 | 0.244 | 100.96 | 20.4% |
| Guthrie | 0.377 | 5.94 | 0.279 | 2.87 | 0.228 | 0.658 | 0.297 | 4.55 | 0.276 | 97.64 | 13.4% |
| Montgomery | 0.400 | 3.60 | 0.230 | 2.53 | 0.275 | 0.729 | 0.247 | 3.60 | 0.224 | 97.25 | 11.3% |
| Despaigne | 0.320 | 3.22 | 0.299 | 4.62 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.274 | 4.13 | 0.248 | 87.83 | 14.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.230 | 1.70 | 0.300 | 3.35 | 0.252 | 0.687 | 0.292 | 3.12 | 0.235 | 101.85 | 24.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jeff Samardzija CHW (at MIN) – Samardzija has been doing his best Jaws impression this season, as the Shark has been blowup multiple times but keeps coming back for more. He will be navigating the shallow waters of Minnesota (land of 10,000 lakes) today, with a lust for brutality that has kept him in ballgames despite the showing on the scoreboard, leading to an MLB-leading 110 hits surrendered this season. He’s pitched well against the Twins thus far in 2015, with 15 strikeouts and just one walk allowed in two starts, but the FIP-friendly numbers haven’t kept the Twins from crossing the plate against Samardzija 6 times in 15 innings.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. ATL) – Stras is returning from the trapezius injury that forced him to the DL at the end of May, facing an Atlanta lineup that looks like it belongs in the International League with Freddie Freeman out of action. The soft landing should make for an easier transition for Strasburg, but his 6.55 ERA on the season and dearth of long outings (he’s pitched into the 8th inning just once this season) will keep most owners just out of arm’s reach until he shows some semblance of the dominance that he enjoyed prior to this season. He makes for an interesting play in GPP formats, but be forewarned that his pitch count will likely be limited even if his command and performance are suddenly resurrected.
Jesse Chavez OAK (at TEX) – It might not be the sexiest pick, but Chavez has been very productive for the A’s since taking over a rotation spot a few weeks into the season. The K count is typically limited but he punched out 11 batters in his last turn, with just 3 hits and one walk allowed against the Padres. He has pitched six or more frames in 8 of his last 9 starts and Oakland is not afraid to turn the converted reliever loose for 110 pitches in a single start.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. LAD) – Something has clicked for Hammel this season. The K rate of 25.7 percent is a career high while the walk rate of 4.2 percent is a career low, and he hasn’t surrendered more than a pair of earnies in a ballgame since the calendar flipped to June. That last bit is somewhat deceiving, though, as he hasn’t registered more than 15 outs in either of his last two turns and has watched unearned tallies cross the plate in each ballgame. Things could get ugly against a deep Dodger lineup that was recently restocked with Yasiel Puig, and though his intrigue is greater than it has been at any other time of his career, I will be avoiding Hammel this week due to a combination of his performance and today’s opponent.
Alex Wood ATL (at WAS) – The dominance has been severely lacking for Wood this season, with just one start out of 13 that kept blanks on the scoreboard (and that was against the Phillies) and just one game with a clean slate of zero walks allowed. The left-hander with the Neo-like motion has often defied expectation with his consistency and ability to hit targets, yet those skills have been missing this season, and he could be in for a long outing against the Nationals today – he has 15 strikeouts against them combined across two starts this season, but the concern comes from the 8 runs that the Nats have scored in those contests.
Collin McHugh HOU (at LAA) – So this is what it looks like when the wheels falls off the wagon. McHugh has surrendered multiple runs in each of his last dozen starts, including 4 or more earned runs allowed in 5 of his last 10 ballgames. He’s punched out more than a half-dozen batters just 5 times in 14 turns this year, and though one of those outings was against these Angels on May 7, his vulnerability to the long ball could rear its ugly head against a red-hot Albert Pujols (who leads the AL with 23 homers) and the fence-clearing skills of Mike Trout (tied for third in the Junior Circuit with 18 bombs).
Mike Fiers MIL (vs. NYM) – Strikeouts are not the problem, with 82 punchouts in 74.0 innings this season; run prevention is the issue. Fiers gave up 6 earnies against the Royals in his last turn and has a season ERA of 4.50, and though he has whiffed 8 or more batters 4 times this season, those impact ballgames are juxtaposed by 5 other starts in which he topped out at 4 strikeouts or fewer. His great run through May is now firmly in the rearview, and Fiers inability to get past the sixth inning will likely continue to dog the right-hander tonight against the Mets.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. BOS)
C.J. Wilson LAA (vs. HOU)
Mike Montgomery SEA (vs. KC) – Montgomery gets his chance to show the Royals why letting him go was a mistake.
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (vs. OAK)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (vs, CHW)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at SF)
Joe Kelly BOS (at BAL)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. CIN)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. PHI)
Chase Anderson ARI (at COL)
Jon Niese NYM (at MIL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jose Urena MIA (vs. STL)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at TB)
Josh Smith CIN (at PIT)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (at SEA)
Sean O’Sullivan PHI (at NYY)
Kyle Kendrick COL (vs. ARI)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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