Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 5th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramirez | TBR | CHW | 172.2 | 4.33 | 4.14 | 1.29 | 27.3% | 18.9% | 8.4% | 1.09 | 1.15 |
| Rodon | CHW | TBR | 80 | 4.84 | 4.15 | 1.68 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 0.68 | 1.79 | |
| Walker | SEA | COL | 159.2 | 4.23 | 3.58 | 1.24 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 1.24 | 1.09 | |
| Rusin | COL | SEA | 83 | 4.99 | 3.89 | 1.58 | 15.5% | 6.2% | 1.30 | 2.03 | |
| Salazar | CLE | LAA | 229.1 | 3.85 | 3.16 | 1.23 | 12.5% | 26.7% | 7.1% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Santiago | LAA | CLE | 250.2 | 3.23 | 4.17 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 21.0% | 8.7% | 1.11 | 0.62 |
| Chen | BAL | OAK | 310.2 | 3.42 | 3.84 | 1.21 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 4.8% | 1.30 | 1.02 |
| Graveman | OAK | BAL | 100.2 | 3.84 | 4.32 | 1.41 | 15.4% | 7.8% | 1.07 | 1.78 | |
| De La Rosa | ARI | WAS | 233 | 4.52 | 3.92 | 1.38 | 57.1% | 18.5% | 7.2% | 1.39 | 1.58 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ARI | 269 | 3.65 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 46.7% | 23.1% | 8.8% | 0.50 | 1.63 |
| Haren | CHC | PIT | 315 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 1.14 | 30.0% | 17.9% | 4.7% | 1.37 | 0.87 |
| Locke | PIT | CHC | 244.2 | 4.05 | 4.09 | 1.34 | 66.7% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 0.88 | 1.87 |
| Wright | BOS | NYY | 80.2 | 4.02 | 3.97 | 1.28 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.45 | 1.22 | |
| Severino | NYY | BOS | |||||||||
| Anderson | LAD | PHI | 161 | 3.07 | 3.40 | 1.30 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 6.7% | 0.61 | 3.19 |
| Harang | PHI | LAD | 315.1 | 3.71 | 4.26 | 1.35 | 75.0% | 17.6% | 7.4% | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| Duffey | MIN | TOR | |||||||||
| Hutchison | TOR | MIN | 297.2 | 4.84 | 3.74 | 1.35 | 31.6% | 22.0% | 7.4% | 1.09 | 0.92 |
| Cueto | KCR | DET | 380.1 | 2.41 | 3.24 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 24.6% | 6.4% | 0.78 | 1.27 |
| Boyd | DET | KCR | |||||||||
| Harvey | NYM | MIA | 133 | 2.91 | 3.41 | 1.06 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 1.08 | 1.15 | |
| Phelps | MIA | NYM | 218.1 | 4.16 | 4.27 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 17.2% | 7.9% | 0.87 | 1.22 |
| Martinez | STL | CIN | 213.2 | 3.20 | 3.42 | 1.32 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 0.63 | 2.07 | |
| Holmberg | CIN | STL | 36 | 4.50 | 5.29 | 1.42 | 13.6% | 11.7% | 2.25 | 0.86 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | ATL | 355.1 | 3.14 | 3.05 | 1.10 | 47.6% | 25.0% | 4.8% | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Perez | ATL | SFG | 54.1 | 4.14 | 4.60 | 1.49 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 0.83 | 1.80 | |
| Kazmir | HOU | TEX | 314.2 | 2.97 | 3.67 | 1.11 | 63.2% | 21.5% | 7.0% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Martinez | TEX | HOU | 252.2 | 4.31 | 5.02 | 1.44 | 27.3% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Kennedy | SDP | MIL | 304.1 | 3.90 | 3.58 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 23.5% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Jungmann | MIL | SDP | 64.2 | 2.23 | 3.82 | 1.10 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 0.28 | 1.72 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Matt Harvey NYM (at MIA) – Prior to Harvey’s last start, I wrote about a number of red flags in his recent profile that suggested to steer clear until he got back on track. Then he went out and got back on track: nine strikeouts, zero walks, one run and five hits allowed against the Nats. The stuff has remained intact throughout his ups and downs, forming the foundation of his quick recapturing of fantasy trust, and his top ranking on today’s slate is further buffered by his weak opponent. The Marlins have struggled offensively since Giancarlo Stanton hit the disabled list, and the past week has been especially rough, with a paltry .230 wOBA and a lowly 522 OPS over the last seven days. The stage is set for Harvey to shut down the Marlins tonight and rack up a top-tier total of fantasy points.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at ATL) – The star of last October was a bit off his game this July, with a 4.85 ERA across six starts including a pair of six-run disasters, the second of which came in his last start. The peripherals were solid in that game versus the Rangers, with eight strikeouts against zero walks, but it was also the highest K count that he managed in any game that month. At the start of the month, he had a three-start stretch in which he failed to finish the sixth inning, this following a five-start streak in which he threw seven or more innings. Bummer could turn things around and resume his usual dominance at any moment, and the .297 wOBA and 676 OPS of the Braves will help to encourage such behavior, though Atlanta’s paltry 11.0-percent K rate over the last seven days could limit his point total in DFS today.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Johnny Cueto KC (at DET) – The right-hander faced a hefty challenge in his first start for Kansas City, drawing the top-ranked offense of the Toronto Blue Jays (who had just added Troy Tulowitzki to the lineup), and Cueto stepped up with six innings of three-run baseball. He follows it up against the once-formidable Tigers, but the trading of Yoenis Cespedes and the hobbling of Miguel Cabrera have taken some of the fangs out of Detroit’s collective bite. Cueto had a bit of a rocky ride leading up to the trade deadline, including a five-run start and another that saw him issue six walks, but the down turns were buffered by a few gems, and his last six starts have net a combined 2.03 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 40.0 innings pitched. Expect more of the same as the right-hander gets settled with his new ballclub.
Carlos Martinez STL (at CIN) – Car-Mart was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in just 5.0 innings in his last start, but that outing was preceded by 11 consecutive turns that qualified as quality starts, only one of which had as many as three runs allowed. He hasn’t faced the Reds since April, when Martinez made his first two starts of the 2015 season and compiled 12 K’s against nine baserunners as Cincy scored three runs across 12.0 frames. The Cards were convinced and have kept him in the rotation ever since, where Martinez has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League. He has started 19 games this year and earned quality starts in 15 of them, with a K-per-inning across 124 frames, though his penchant for the free pass has resulted in a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.45 FIP. Odds are that his 2.61 ERA will rise between now and the end of the season, but his electric stuff is likely to keep up the K count and result in a handful of gems over the next two months.
Scott Kazmir HOU (at TEX) – Kazmir was just named AL Pitcher of the Month for July, a month that featured five starts with a combined ERA of a miniscule 0.26, as he allowed just one earned run across 34.0 innings. The month was split between the A’s and the Astros, with the final two starts coming with his new ballclub. Texas has a middle-of-the-road offense but they have struggled against southpaws this season, with a .300 wOBA and a 686 OPS. Strikeouts are the one category that have eluded Kazmir thus far in Houston, with just eight punchouts in his 14.7 innings pitched as an Astro, but the Rangers’ 23.0-percent K rate against southpaws indicates that the K-count could go up in a hurry in tonight’s ballgame.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramirez | 0.302 | 3.90 | 0.335 | 4.91 | 0.254 | 0.698 | 0.279 | 4.42 | 0.243 | 68.65 | 18.9% |
| Rodon | 0.256 | 4.15 | 0.389 | 5.17 | 0.252 | 0.742 | 0.362 | 3.84 | 0.274 | 90.18 | 23.8% |
| Walker | 0.304 | 3.65 | 0.324 | 5.05 | 0.281 | 0.801 | 0.291 | 4.06 | 0.243 | 87.10 | 23.1% |
| Rusin | 0.363 | 6.04 | 0.366 | 4.53 | 0.255 | 0.692 | 0.343 | 4.44 | 0.309 | 78.47 | 15.5% |
| Salazar | 0.299 | 3.64 | 0.313 | 4.01 | 0.252 | 0.714 | 0.309 | 3.47 | 0.241 | 97.97 | 26.7% |
| Santiago | 0.265 | 1.88 | 0.319 | 3.77 | 0.257 | 0.710 | 0.277 | 4.16 | 0.236 | 85.92 | 21.0% |
| Chen | 0.293 | 2.49 | 0.331 | 3.72 | 0.242 | 0.679 | 0.288 | 4.12 | 0.258 | 95.61 | 18.5% |
| Graveman | 0.319 | 3.28 | 0.340 | 4.38 | 0.254 | 0.742 | 0.302 | 4.44 | 0.272 | 73.77 | 15.4% |
| De La Rosa | 0.386 | 5.89 | 0.296 | 3.23 | 0.250 | 0.711 | 0.305 | 4.52 | 0.271 | 94.13 | 18.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.283 | 3.51 | 0.308 | 3.69 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.314 | 3.09 | 0.244 | 96.59 | 23.1% |
| Haren | 0.317 | 3.76 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.256 | 0.702 | 0.265 | 4.29 | 0.243 | 96.53 | 17.9% |
| Locke | 0.275 | 3.48 | 0.328 | 4.21 | 0.248 | 0.704 | 0.295 | 4.08 | 0.258 | 93.56 | 17.0% |
| Wright | 0.310 | 4.71 | 0.321 | 3.45 | 0.261 | 0.762 | 0.272 | 4.61 | 0.249 | 65.50 | 17.8% |
| Severino | 0.261 | 0.719 | |||||||||
| Anderson | 0.310 | 4.10 | 0.303 | 2.64 | 0.264 | 0.708 | 0.312 | 3.48 | 0.268 | 86.79 | 16.6% |
| Harang | 0.334 | 3.44 | 0.307 | 3.93 | 0.250 | 0.754 | 0.308 | 3.73 | 0.264 | 101.27 | 17.6% |
| Duffey | 0.256 | 0.757 | |||||||||
| Hutchison | 0.340 | 5.83 | 0.318 | 3.68 | 0.245 | 0.692 | 0.317 | 3.90 | 0.261 | 93.83 | 22.0% |
| Cueto | 0.247 | 1.99 | 0.269 | 2.79 | 0.275 | 0.756 | 0.240 | 3.23 | 0.194 | 105.52 | 24.6% |
| Boyd | 0.562 | 19.64 | 0.545 | 9.00 | 0.272 | 0.712 | |||||
| Harvey | 0.324 | 4.20 | 0.241 | 1.85 | 0.243 | 0.651 | 0.263 | 3.56 | 0.22 | 98.35 | 23.4% |
| Phelps | 0.309 | 4.00 | 0.330 | 4.32 | 0.240 | 0.676 | 0.298 | 4.06 | 0.259 | 68.58 | 17.2% |
| Martinez | 0.341 | 3.80 | 0.272 | 2.70 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.316 | 3.34 | 0.246 | 42.79 | 23.4% |
| Holmberg | 0.454 | 6.43 | 0.336 | 4.03 | 0.238 | 0.679 | 0.217 | 7.24 | 0.234 | 77.00 | 13.6% |
| Bumgarner | 0.252 | 2.24 | 0.300 | 3.37 | 0.233 | 0.636 | 0.296 | 3.14 | 0.237 | 101.41 | 25.0% |
| Perez | 0.371 | 7.03 | 0.289 | 1.80 | 0.276 | 0.757 | 0.306 | 4.65 | 0.262 | 74.42 | 17.1% |
| Kazmir | 0.288 | 3.01 | 0.272 | 2.96 | 0.238 | 0.686 | 0.271 | 3.25 | 0.222 | 94.00 | 21.5% |
| Martinez | 0.335 | 3.89 | 0.359 | 4.79 | 0.249 | 0.752 | 0.290 | 4.89 | 0.27 | 89.04 | 13.1% |
| Kennedy | 0.321 | 3.81 | 0.332 | 3.99 | 0.257 | 0.702 | 0.304 | 3.89 | 0.249 | 99.71 | 23.5% |
| Jungmann | 0.290 | 1.78 | 0.259 | 2.62 | 0.243 | 0.681 | 0.271 | 3.10 | 0.216 | 101.60 | 20.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ARI) – Gonzalez is in the midst of his worst season as a National, a fact that was once glaringly obvious but appears less so after a six-start run that includes a 1.51 ERA, a .602 OPS against, and 30 strikeouts in 35.3 innings. The walks have still been an issue, but that’s been the case throughout Gio’s career. Still, his free-pass tendencies are a potential escalator of pitch counts, which explains how he couldn’t finish the fifth inning in his last start despite allowing just four hits and one run – the four walks and six punchouts against the Mets took 105 pitches to accomplish in just 4.7 frames.
Taylor Jungmann MIL (vs. SD) – Any pitcher facing the Padres these days receives a boost in the rankings, and this factor is especially prevalent for right-handed throwers. Such was the case last season as well, but the results are surprising in 2015 after an off-season of stuffing the roster with power bats. The Pads have a .297 wOBA and 681 OPS against right-handers this season, but they have been turning it around recently, with 44 runs scored in their last seven games on the heels of a .340 wOBA and 788 OPS over that stretch. For his part, Jungmann has had an easy ride on his first tour through the league, with a 2.23 ERA in his first 10 starts. The 20.5-percent strikeout rate doesn’t exactly leap off the page, but the right-hander has stepped up the K’s in his last few turns with 26 strikeouts in 27.7 innings over his last four starts.
Brett Anderson LAD (at PHI) – The Dodgers have to be thrilled with the 117.3 innings that they’ve received from Anderson this year, both due to his 3.14 ERA and the fact that it’s the most innings that the southpaw has pitched in a season since his rookie year. He has been excellently consistent of late, as his season ERA has stayed between 3.00 and 3.17 since late June and he’s given up between one and three earned runs in each of his last eight starts. In fact, Anderson has only given up more than three earnies twice this season (both of which were four-spots), and he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any game this season. Anderson has a 2.54 ERA in his last eight starts, and that mark might be lowered further against a Philly offense that has a .297 wOBA and 679 OPS this season.
Luis Severino NYY (vs. BOS) – Severino makes his big-league debut today against the rival Red Sox, and though I would temper my expectations for any debut starter, Severino’s minor-league ERA of 2.30 and K-per-inning ratios inspire confidence that he can have a smooth transition. There’s always the risk of a short outing, as the Yankees will have incentive to protect their young arm and get to the bullpen early, particularly if the game is close. Severino owns a mid-90’s fastball that can touch 97 mph on the gun and an effective change-up that flashes plus, and tonight we’ll get a good look at how his tight slider has progressed in the minors.
Dan Haren CHC (at PIT) – Haren has been used with remarkable consistency this season, having twirled exactly 6.0 innings in five straight starts and recording between 17 and 19 outs in nine consecutive turns. There’s always the risk of blow-up, as evidenced by his five-run start against the lowly Phillies two turns ago, but the other four of his last five starts have been effective, including a trio of single-run outings. One doesn’t roster Haren for his strikeouts, with a K rate of just 16.8 percent that’s his personal low since 2004, but the Cubs acquired the right-hander for his run prevention and consistent ability to eat innings. He makes his Cubbie debut tonight, marking the eighth uniform that Haren has worn in his 13-year career.
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (at WAS)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. CHC)
Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. MIN)
Ian Kennedy SD (at MIL)
Williams Perez ATL (vs. SF)
Aaron Harang PHI (vs. LAD)
David Holmberg CIN (vs. STL)
David Phelps MIA (vs. NYM)
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. HOU)
Matt Boyd DET (vs. KC)
Steven Wright BOS (at NYY)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tyler Duffey MIN (at TOR)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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