Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Oakland Athletics
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Oakland Athletics Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 83.5
— World Series Odds: 25/1
— Key Additions: Chris Herrmann, Robbie Grossman, Marco Estrada, Jurickson Profar
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Jesus Luzardo, Paul Blackburn, Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs, Sean Manaea, Nick Martini, Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, Chris Herrmann, Sean Murphy (minors)
— Outlook: If you just close your eyes for the first month or two of the season when the Athletics are on defense, you’ll really love this team. The bats are once again projecting to be both interesting and exciting for DFS purposes. Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar will be among a few hitter who hit near the top of the order during the course of the season, and they come to Oakland from other teams looking to prove something. For Profar, it is living up to his high prospect status after his best pro season in 2018.
If you can get past Profar and Grossman in the lineup without letting them get on base, you’ll still be faced with some combination of Matt Chapman (93.1 MPH exit velocity, rank 5th), Matt Olsen (93.1 MPH exit velocity, rank 7th), Khris Davis (92.4 exit velocity, Rank 13th), and Stephen Piscotty (6.9% Barrel Rate, Rank 64/332). This is a stretch of hitters that helped propel Oakland to the second highest HR total in the American league a season ago. It is an awesome stack for DFS in the right situation, as the boom bust potential is often overlooked. Their bench and bottom of the order is also loaded with power options like Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, and a sprinkle of upside in Marcus Semien. If you stop reading here, you’ll be ready to go about your day excited about the outlook of the 2019 Oakland Athletics.
You’ve been warned about what comes next in this preview, and what you are about to see is ugly. Mike Fiers will start on opening day this season thanks to a boat load of injuries to Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton, Daniel Gossett, and Andrew Triggs. Yes, the Mike Fiers who has allowed 32 HR in two straight seasons. PlateIQ doesn’t like much of anything about him (see the red conditional formats above), and unfortunately the same is true for all five guys available to start the season for this team.
Estrada probably has the best chance of the group thanks to his fly ball style and the myriad of fly ball parks in his division. Brett Anderson has no strikeout ability (14.1% K) and lives and dies with the ground ball style (55.6% GB Rate). Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Paul Blackburn, and prospect Jesus Luzardo are jockeying for position early in the season. Luzardo is one of the better hopes in the early goings, and if he manages to earn a spot it would be somewhat promising. If he doesn’t, we’ve seen the rest of the options before with the A’s and they were not DFS viable. Montas claims to have worked out some new pitches, but for the most part we’re reaching for positive vibes. This is bad rotation for now, and possibly the worst in baseball until some of their actual rotation can get healthy.
— DFS Ownership Trends: For someone who gives up so many homeruns, Mike Fiers ranking just 86th in ownership against seems like a value. For a team that hit the 3rd most HRs overall, the A’s rnaking 13th in overall ownership also seems like a value. For a guy who finished 2018 with the 5th highest average exit velocity, Matt Chapman ranking 90th in average ownership seems like a value. For whatever reason, the A’s were consistently overlooked and underrated in 2018. Keep an eye on them for opportunity to capitalize early in the 2019 campaign.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Of the 121 pitchers who have thrown 5,000 pitches over the past three seasons, only five – Kyle Hendricks, Dallas Keuchel, Alex Cobb, Zach Davies, and Aaron Nola – have hit the edges of the strike zone at a higher rate than Marco Estrada ’s 45.3% of pitches. It’s telling that all but one pitchers on that list (Nola, obviously) are card-carrying members of the “better in real life than fantasy” club, which is where Estrada resides. But the positive ballpark shift at least makes him a bit more interesting.
— After the All-Star break, Matt Chapman was one of the best hitters in baseball last year. His second-half wRC+ of 162 ranked sixth in MLB, trailing only Christian Yelich, Justin Turner, Tommy Pham, Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez.