Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Seattle Mariners
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Seattle Mariners Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 70.5
— World Series Odds: 1000/1
— Key Additions: Tim Beckham, Yusei Kikuchi, Mallex Smith, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Omar Narvaez
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Ryon Healy, Kristopher Negron, David Freitas, Ichiro Suzuki
— Outlook: Seattle appears to be in a period of transition, with new names across the lineup. Vegas isn’t feeling great about the changes, as they currently have a win total set at just 70.5. Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, and Robinson Cano are no longer with the team, and that is a painful slice of productivity to eat in a single offseason.
As for the new faces, there is some hope for DFS upside. Edwin Encarnacion may turn out to be just a short term rental, but until they can find a trade partner he brings a respectable dose of power to replace Cruz. Domingo Santana, Tim Beckham, and Jay Bruce are a trio of hitters who struggled with productivity last season but have in the past been effective generating power. Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon have the steals upside for DFS but virtually no power. Combing these elements with returning sluggers Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager will produce a lightly owned DFS stack in 2019 that at least has a chance.
James Paxton is gone, and the Mariners did not replace the talent with equal talent. Marco Gonzales now headlines the lackluster pitching staff. He closed the season with 11 shutout innings and just 1 HR in last 6 games. He could finally be ready to fulfill his prospect upside, although for DFS his 21% strikeout rate has significant space to grow before we get truly excited.
International free agent Yusei Kikuchi could be a bright spot as well. STEAMER projects him for a 23.2% strikeout rate, and his pitch repertoire has been compared to that of Patrick Corbin. It remains to be seen exactly what he can do in the Majors, but for now there is light optimism.
The rest of the staff is a mess. PlateIQ measurements have very little respect for the age 32, 89 MPH fastball version of Felix Hernandez. His 4.63 SIERA supports the idea that his best days are behind him. Wade Leblanc allowed the 25th highest barrel % in 2018 and produces ground balls at just a 36% rate. Between Hernandez and LeBlanc, they allowed a massive 51 HR allowed in 2018 that would continue to devastate win expectation if they don’t improve quickly. Mike Leake is not trustworthy for DFS and nor is he incredible for real life either. It’s a poor situation that won’t to be a popular place to target this summer.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Seattle will decline in ownership this season, as they checked in with the 17th highest popularity in 2018. They lost their three most rostered hitters, and the replacements don’t qualify as equals. if history is any indication, nobody is going to own their pitchers either. Marco Gonzales was the 68th most popular pitcher to target, and qualifies as the most popular remaining arm on the Mariners roster from last season.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Last season, Marco Gonzalez finally stayed healthy enough to be a stable part of the Mariners rotation, and he didn’t disappoint. In fact, he was one of only three pitchers in MLB (min. 160 IP) to post a sub-5.0% walk rate and allow fewer than one home run per nine innings; the others were Miles Mikolas and Clayton Kershaw. He’s a control pitcher whose strikeouts are a bit below league average, which isn’t always exciting for DFS. But if the price and matchup are right, he’ll be playable from time to time.
— Before a disappointing 2018 in which he lost his job and saw only sporadic playing time, Domingo Santana seemed ready to break out. His 30 homers, 15 steals, and 127 wRC+ were matched by only two players that year: Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt. He should see plenty of action in Seattle, and he’ll be a name worth watching in the early going this season.