Batter Ownership Analysis: Tuesday, June 7th
Ownership rate is one of the most critical parts to DFS game theory. We can’t expect to profit against our opponents if we aren’t investing in high-value players that aren’t amongst the highest-owned options on the slate.
I took the time to compile 19 slates of data from DraftKings and went through them all in search of trends. I came across five interesting points, and this article will highlight the findings for use in tonight’s massive GPP action.
The 19 Slates: May 25 through June 6, May 13, May 10, May 9, May 6, May 3, April 30
Price points: $20 through $50 entry fee
Typical Field Sizes: 3,000 to 10,000 players
Point 1 – Pay attention to multi-position eligibility.
Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Brandon Drury, Travis Shaw, Derek Dietrich, Jurickson Profar. They all have two things in common. They were all available at multiple positions, and they all spent time commanding a high ownership % during the slates I reviewed.
For obvious reasons, multi-position eligibility enhances a player’s owned percentage. Naturally we want to consider fading high ownership to gain an advantage. Avoiding the most popular players with multi-position eligibility is a fine strategy, so long as we can do so with a plausible lower-owned alternative. Every situation is different, but the failure of a player that carries relatively high ownership at TWO positions is a nice way to gain an edge.
The field tends to like: Kris Bryant, rank #3 in this sample vs. Jerad Eickhoff
You might consider instead: Danny Valencia, rank #164 vs. Zach Davies
Point 2 – The highest-owned plays (by average rank per slate) were shortstops.
This just makes sense. Shortstop is a scarce position, and the competition for this roster spot is usually a lot less attractive. Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa were all in the top 10 of overall average ownership rank per slate. This is a good reason to consider digging deep at the SS position in search of low-owned, high-upside value. While the top plays do frequently end the night with great scores, there will be opportunity to capitalize when they don’t produce as expected.
The field tends to like: Carlos Correa, rank #6 in this sample vs. Cole Hamels
You might consider instead: Francisco Lindor, rank #37 vs. Wade Miley
Point 3 – Virtually everybody is “low owned” on larger slates.
You should pay more attention to who is highly owned on big slates than worrying about who will be the absolute lowest owned. Fading the highest-owned plays can have merit in the right situation, but you might not ALWAYS have to dig extremely deep for an alternative that makes sense. On June 3rd (14-game slate) there were only 18 players higher than 10% owned. One June 2nd (12-game Coors Slate), just 20 players eclipsed 10% and only one of the top five was in Coors. So be careful not to overthink. You may be fading great plays incorrectly if you don’t factor in slate size and the effect that it has on ownership levels.
The field tends to like: Jose Altuve, rank #10 in this sample vs. Cole Hamels
You might consider instead: Ben Zobrist, rank #47 vs. Jerad Eickhoff
Point 4 – Somewhat to the contrary of #3, ALWAYS be aware of extremely low ownership on high-upside players.
The keywords are “extremely low” and “high upside.” We’re looking for island plays with a tangible, justifiable opportunity at two-HR or two-SB upside that is not being discussed, touted, or otherwise advertised by the majority of the public during the course of the day. It’s rare, but I can recall an example:
On May 13, Tommy Joseph was 12.47% owned in his first game as a Major Leaguer (think about that). We had no idea what he was going to be capable of Day 1, and all we really cared about was his minimum salary. On that same slate Lucas Duda was 10.38% owned against Jon Gray despite looking awful most of the year. Chris Carter, who strikes out more than just about anyone, was the highest owned true 1B with 11.36% (Joseph was multi-position). I am providing this information as a means to establish who the chalk was on this particular day, and why another option was a far superior choice.
Byung-Ho Park is 29 years old… basically a veteran. He has two 50-HR seasons overseas, and appears to be swinging for the fences every at bat. He’s exactly the kind of hitter you’d like to take against a pitcher he already homered off of earlier in this season (Josh Tomlin). This is particularly true if he’s going to be 1.39% owned. Park hit two home runs that day.
The story isn’t about Park hitting two home runs and the other guys being terrible. It’s about the fact that if the other guys hit two home runs, they’d carry about 10% of rosters with them. Park carried just 1.4% along for the ride, and put those players in a prime-time position for the big bucks. Here is the point: Do whatever you can to unearth low-owned players with noteworthy upside, even if they carry risk. These plays infrequently deliver the performance we want, but provide us the opportunity to finish at the top when the stars align.
The field tends to like: Edwin Encarnacion, rank #15 in this sample vs. Matt Boyd
You might consider instead: Albert Pujols, rank #139 vs. Michael Pineda
Point 5 – The outfield is loaded with low-owned upside plays.
High-upside, high-quality MLB players are constantly low owned in the outfield. It’s something I noticed anecdotally on my own, and then found some reasonable justification while examining ownership percentages. This isn’t just the Domingo Santanas and Steven Souzas of the world I’m talking about. Mike Trout was 1.88% owned on June 5th. The Yankee outfielders, Denard Span, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Eaton, Starling Marte. These players all carried a very low owned percentage on a frequent basis.
Stay vigilant, and constantly search the outfield for low-owned opportunities. There is ample flexibility to separate from the field at this roster position.
The field tends to like: Jose Bautista, rank #5 in this sample vs. Matt Boyd
You might consider instead: Marcell Ozuna, rank #68 vs. Pat Dean
Huge paydays are on the table tonight on DraftKings, and I hope these findings help you to build unique and exciting rosters. Always consider the potential ownership of the plays you want to use, and how you can leverage the behavior of the field to your own benefit.
Find this information interesting? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
Best of luck, and may you scoop all the money that I am unable to secure for myself!