MLB Daily Grind Down April 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-04-01 14:56:10

Baseball season has officially begun! This is my favorite time of the year for daily fantasy sports because we have both NBA and MLB action and so many big tournaments that it’s almost impossible to play them all. The games today start early so make sure to get your teams set in time. It might be a day where you should overspend on pitchers because every team has their ace on the mound.

• Lester had a down year last season and will look to get this year off on the right track. Luckily for him the Yankees will be without Granderson, Teixeira, Jeter, and Rodriguez. Lester is also one of the cheaper options today and could be worth a look if you want to spend more on hitters, especially considering how many left bats the Yankees have.
• While Lester makes a decent value play, there are a couple of Yankees with good matchups. Kevin Youkilis has always crushed lefties and should be a good play. Robinson Cano is a lefty yes, but he has always put up pretty solid numbers against lefties and also makes a decent play.
• For the Yanks, Sabathia takes the mound and faces a much different Red Sox lineup than they had at the start of last season. Sabathia has good splits against most of this Red Sox roster and this could be one of those dominant days from Sabathia. The hard question to answer is which ace you want to spend your salary on. I think Sabathia is a good option, but not necessarily the best today.
• For the Red Sox batters, Dustin Pedroia has always hit lefties well in his career, but he has struggled against CC in the past. Same story with Shane Victorino. I would stay away from the Red Sox, but a guy that could do well is Will Middlebrooks. Had a good season last year and was .300 against lefties.

• With all of the aces pitching today, when you see Ricky Nolasco as an option, you should just look the other way. He isn’t a terrible pitcher, but on the road against WAS is not a great spot.
• It is a great spot for the Nationals hitters though. While none of the Nationals hitters have great BvP against Nolasco, I am going to be targeting both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper in this one. Zimmerman has 3 HR’s off of Nolasco in his career, and Harper is a guy that can hit for power and steal bases.
• Stephen Strasburg gets the opening day nod for the Nationals and gets to face a Marlins team that lost two of their best hitters from last season. This is a fantastic spot for Strasburg and I think he reaches double digit strikeouts in this one.
• The Marlins don’t have any big names outside of Giancarlo Stanton and with a matchup against Strasburg, I think it’s smart to just stay away from them in this one even though the numbers suggest a few possible good plays.

• Volquez started off last season hot and then tapered off at the end of the season. He has a decent matchup against the Mets who can’t seem to find any bats outside of David Wright. Even though the matchup is there, I don’t like Volquez on the road and he isn’t likely to get much run support.
• For the Mets batters, I think David Wright is a solid play even though he is only 1/8 against Volquez in his career. Lucas Duda is also a power hitter that could have a nice game.
• Jonathan Niese on the mound for the Mets after a really nice 2012 season. Last year the Padres were one of the worst offensive teams in the league and without any big acquisitions, it doesn’t look too promising for their offense this year. Niese is a great play today.
• For the Padres, Logan Forsythe and Carlos Quentin both hit well against lefties, but this isn’t a great hitters park and Niese was a beast at home last season.

• Jeff Samardzija came out of nowhere last year and really put together a great season. Now he is the opening day starter against an average Pirates offense. Only thing that worries me here is the fact that he is pitching on the road where he wasn’t nearly as good last season.
• The Pirates were a strange offensive team last season. They would go on stretches where they would score 7 runs every game and then they would go on a stretch where they would struggle to score any runs. I wouldn’t try to get too creative here, I think both Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker are pretty good plays.
• For the Pirates, A.J. Burnett was great last season. Apparently all he needed was to get out of New York. Burnett was dominant at home last season with an ERA of only 3.10. I expect him to be good at home again this year and a matchup with the Cubs is always a good thing.
• The Cubs were also one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season and they also didn’t have any big acquisitions. They all have bad BvP numbers against Burnett and should be avoided.

• Jhoulys Chacin didn’t have a great season last year and may not get off to the start that he would like to this year. Pitching in Milwaukee against those bats is always tough.
• For the Brewers, Aramis Ramirez has good BvP numbers against Chacin, Norichika Aoki is coming off of a great season and also has had success against Chacin, and I have a feeling Ryan Braun is going to have an opening day HR.
• Yovani Gallardo was great at home last season and very average on the road. His strikeout numbers are great and he is always a threat to reach double digit K’s. While the Rockies do have some solid bats in their lineup, I expect Gallardo to get enough K’s to make up for the couple of runs that he gives up.
• Both Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have had success against Gallardo in the past, but some of that is likely due to Coors field where the numbers are always skewed a little bit. My feeling is to stay away, but it’s a tough call between gut feeling and the numbers.

• Justin Verlander takes the mound against the Phillies today and there isn’t much to say about Verlander other than he is a stud no matter where he pitches and that he always seems to get 10+ strikeouts. The question is whether you can afford to take him and skimp out on the rest of your roster.
• The Twins don’t have terrible numbers against Verlander, but these are the type of situations where you ignore BvP. Taking anyone against Verlander just isn’t a great idea.
• The Twins picked up Vance Worley after he had a great start to last season for the Phillies. However, he is now in the AL and will face much better offenses this season. One of those being the Tigers. There are better options at pitcher than Worley.
• I expect the Tigers to put up a solid number of runs today. While most of them haven’t ever faced Worley before, the Tigers have too many solid bats and should be able to find success against him. I love that Austin Jackson hits for power and steals bases, he will be on a few of my teams today. I also expect either Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder to go yard.

• James Shields will make his very first start for the Royals against a tough White Sox team that can really string together some hits. Shields has struggled against these hitters in the past and wasn’t the best pitcher on the road last season. I expect a bumpy start for Shields.
• While I do expect the White Sox to hit Shields around a bit, it’s hard to say which batters are going to be the ones that do it. I would maybe take a shot on Paul Konerko or Alejandro De Aza.
• Chris Sale had an awesome season for the White Sox last year and I think he starts off this season with a bang. The Royals don’t have the greatest offense and Sale had his way with the Royals last season. If he is a bit cheaper than the studs, I would take him and upgrade somewhere else.
• I wouldn’t touch any of the Royals hitters outside of Alex Gordon. I could see Gordon getting a few hits, but there won’t likely be many people on base so don’t expect too much.

• Jered Weaver is a dominant ace that pitches well regardless of the team he is facing or where he is pitching. However, he hasn’t faced hardly any of the Reds batters before and I would rather take a pitcher that knows what he is facing.
• If you are a big believer in BvP, then Shin Soo-Choo is a must play today. He has probably the best BvP numbers of all hitters today. He is 15/29 against Weaver with two doubles. I am going to avoid him, but BvP could be on to something.
• Johnny Cueto is the first victim that has to face this incredibly powerful Angels offense. Call me crazy but I am staying far away from any pitcher facing this team.
• Cueto is a solid pitcher, but the Angels are going to put some runs on the board, no doubt about it. I like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in this one.

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