MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, July 21
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, July 21st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Friday! We’ll close out the work week with a nice 11-game slate with a little bit of everything. We’ve got Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez headlining the aces in plus matchups. There are enough respectable pitchers out there to keep any stack from being too obvious, as well. Most importantly, Coors Field is nowhere to be seen.
There’s a lot to break down on a slate of this size, so let’s hop right in and identify the best MLB DFS picks for Friday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYM/BOS should be a popular game for bats if the weather holds. Roth has this one tagged as YELLOW/ORANGE with the potential for showers and a delay. He adds he’s “cautiously optimistic” about this game being able to play through some lighter rain, and there’s a chance we see the risk lowered here before first pitch.
- KC/NYY is a straight YELLOW with the potential for a late start or a delay in the early innings, but a PPD doesn’t seem particularly likely. Clarke Schmidt is a viable pitching option in a plus matchup, so here’s hoping we get the “all clear” here before the game starts.
- CHW/MIN is the only other game with slight concerns, though YELLOW/GREEN is usually playable. There’s a chance of a delay from a pop-up shower, which could complicate things for Joe Ryan and Lance Lynn if one happens to pop right over the ballpark.
- SF/WAS has some gusty winds blowing left-to-right across the field, which shouldn’t have a huge impact on the proceedings.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Mike Soroka will draw a spot start for the Braves tonight after throwing 30 pitches in a long relief outing after Kolby Allard departed Sunday’s game. Soroka did throw 99 pitches in his previous appearance before that, so he should have a decent leash here against the Brewers.
- Sean Murphy should return to the lineup tonight behind the plate after getting yesterday afternoon off. He’s projected to hit fifth in the Braves’ lineup, while Travis d’Arnaud likely heads back to the bench.
- Adolis Garcia is questionable for the Rangers tonight with a forearm injury after leaving Wednesday’s game following an HBP. We do have him projected to hit cleanup and start in right field against Tony Gonsolin.
- Carlos Correa and Max Kepler are expected to return to the Twins’ lineup tonight against Lance Lynn after getting Thursday off. Byron Buxton did return to the lineup yesterday following back-to-back benchings, but an 0-for-4 effort means he’s now hitless with 15 strikeouts in his last 25 at-bats. We have Bux projected to start again tonight and hit third.
- J.D. Davis has missed consecutive games with a stomach illness, and David Villar has started both games at third in the meantime. The Giants have an implied run total north of 5 against the hittable Jake Irvin in DC tonight, though the stack will take a hit if Davis is forced to miss a third straight game. LaMonte Wade is dealing with a hamstring issue, though he could be back in there tonight against the right-hander.
- Eloy Jimenez returned to the lineup as the White Sox’ DH yesterday after missing a few games earlier in the week with a groin injury. He may well have the same task tonight as he continues to recover. Andrew Vaughn has missed the last couple of games with a sore foot, though X-rays didn’t show any fracture yesterday. Jake Burger started at first base yesterday with Zach Remillard handling the hot corner.
- Starling Marte landed on the IL yesterday due to his lingering migraines. Mark Canha is the most likely candidate to get most of the work in right field with Marte on the shelf. Tommy Pham hopes to avoid an IL trip of his own after leaving yesterday’s game with groin discomfort. However, he’s been dealing with the issue since before the All-Star break. Jeff McNeil could spend more time in the outfield if Pham is out of the mix.
- Harrison Bader was hit by a pitch on Wednesday, which forced him to leave the game due to a rib contusion. We do have Bader included in the Yanks’ projected lineup tonight against Alec Marsh, but we shall see. Oswaldo Cabrera and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are candidates to replace Bader in the lineup if he’s a no-go tonight.
- The Rays sent Francisco Mejia to the IL with a knee injury and recalled Rene Pinto to take his place.
- Jarred Kelenic decided to kick a water cooler during Wednesday’s game, and he wound up fracturing his foot in the process. Classic baseball injury. He’ll be out of the lineup for quite a while, and the Mariners called up Cade Marlowe to take his spot on the roster. Marlow, Dylan Moore, and AJ Pollock could all see more playing time with Kelenic down.
- Jake Marisnick joined the Dodgers and immediately went on the IL with a hamstring strain. LA recalled Jonny DeLuca to reclaim his spot on the roster ahead of tonight’s series opener in Arlington.
- The Diamondbacks look like one of the better stacks on tonight’s slate, as they’ll get a nice park bump going into Cincinnati for a date with Ben Lively. The Reds are in an advantageous spot of their own on the other side of that game against the struggling Tommy Henry. The Giants aren’t the safest stack because of all of the pinch-hit risk with their lineup, but it’s still hard to ignore their 5.2 total against the aforementioned Irvin.
- I should also mention the Braves despite a difficult matchup against Freddy Peralta, just because the Braves seem to hit 5 home runs every night regardless of who’s pitching. If you want to go a little off the board in tournaments, I don’t mind taking shots on the Red Sox at home against the wild Kodai Senga, either.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- As mentioned in the open, Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez are the co-headliners on the pitching front tonight. Ohtani is only the third-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($10,200), which is enough for me to tip the scales in his favor over Valdez for $1,000 more. They’re both stellar plays, but the salaries should leave Ohtani with quite a bit more ownership. Joe Ryan ($10,000) against the White Sox is a decent tournament pivot, especially given his dominant 32% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters on the year. The Sox are almost entirely right-handed. If I’m going cheaper on the pitching side, I’ll gladly take shots on Clarke Schmidt ($8,000) and Alex Wood ($6,700) in GPPs.
- Paying up for pitching means we’ll need to find some cheaper bats. One stack that stands out right away is the Yankees, who’ll take their swings at home against righty Alec Marsh. He’s already allowed 5 homers in just 15 innings of work this season at the MLB level, and he’s shown zero ability to keep the ball on the ground. Oswald Peraza ($2,300) is free and expected to lead off, while Anthony Rizzo ($2,700), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000), Franchy Cordero ($2,200), and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) are all too cheap. NYY is a top FD stack on this slate as a result of the salaries, and there’s merit to getting to several of these bats in cash game builds.
- Going into Fenway means a big park bump for the Mets, who should be a bit more affordable tonight as a result of their injury issues. Kutter Crawford has a noteworthy reverse platoon split from the right side, so Pete Alonso ($3,600) is arguably the top hitter on the entire slate. Francisco Alvarez ($2,900) and Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) are nice values, while the min-priced DJ Stewart does have some power from the left side.
- It’s a great spot for Alonso, so I’ll gladly take higher than 1.5 total bases for him over on Underdog tonight. Remember, new users can claim a 100% match bonus of up to $100 using our special Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Irvin has yielded a .317 wOBA with 7 homers to lefties already this season, and the DBax are expected to throw 5 LHBs his way in this one. Corbin Carroll ($4,000) is an elite spend in all formats, while Geraldo Perdomo ($2,800) makes for a solid value out of the leadoff spot. Nick Senzel ($2,700) headlines the value options on the Reds side of this one with the platoon edge against the middling Tommy Henry.
- I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Dodgers against old friend Andrew Heaney. Heaney is about as boom-or-bust as they come, but he’s a certified dong machine when he’s not on his game. As a team, the Dodgers have a .254 ISO with a .363 wOBA against lefties. Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and J.D. Martinez are the obvious top targets, while Chris Taylor ($2,800) stands out as a terrific cheapie. All he’s done this season is post a team-best .387 ISO against southpaws.
- Ohtani ($11,000) and Valdez ($10,800) won’t come cheap on DraftKings, but they’re still the top two targets against the Pirates and A’s, respectively. They’re projected for similar ownership, though Ohtani’s strikeout stuff gives him the higher ceiling in tournaments. Joe Ryan ($10,600) should be somewhat popular in his own right, but Lance Lynn ($7,600) and Clarke Schmidt ($6,200) really stand out as point-per-dollar values. They’re both cheap enough to make for a viable pairing in tournaments if you’re looking to prioritize more expensive stacks like the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, and Diamondbacks.
- The best value stack on the DK side of things is the Mariners, who will take their swings at home against the homer-prone Yusei Kikuchi. Julio Rodriguez ($4,900) is pricey, but nobody else in the projected lineup will cost you more than $3,300. Stacking the M’s is one way to cram Ohtani and Valdez into lineups together, with Eugenio Suarez ($2,800) and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300) being the core pieces here. Dylan Moore ($2,000) and AJ Pollock ($2,100) could draw starts, as well.
- Lynn’s cheap salary over here should lead to some ownership, so I don’t mind looking to the Twins as GPP leverage. Lynn has already allowed 24 homers this year, and his numbers against lefties are horrendous (.437 wOBA, 17 HR). Edouard Julien ($3,100), Max Kepler ($2,600), Alex Kirilloff ($2,200), Willi Castro ($2,400), and Joey Gallo ($3,000) are all affordable with the platoon edge against the veteran right-hander.
- Jake Irvin has gotten blitzed by left-handed bats so far this year, and the Giants have 5 of those in tonight’s projected lineup. Wade isn’t among them, though he could easily return, as well. Mike and Mike (Conforto and Yastrzemski) stand out as values, while Joc Pederson ($4,400) brings most of the thunder.
- A few more cheapies to consider in all formats are Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,300), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,300), Jake McCarthy ($3,000), Gabriel Moreno ($2,400), and MJ Melendez ($2,900).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!