MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, July 24
Taylor Smith previews the Monday, July 24th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
The new week brings a solid 8-game MLB DFS slate on this Monday. We’re lacking a bunch of traditional aces at first glance, but there is still enough to like on the pitching side to where ownership should still be evenly spread among the top options. That leaves us with a lot to like on the offensive side of things, as quite a few teams have reached the latter halves of their starting rotations. This is a decent slate to kick off the week, so let’s get started with some MLB DFS picks for Monday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Nothing too daunting on the early weather report, but still a couple of games worth monitoring. COL/WAS has a YELLOW/GREEN tag for the potential for a late start with rain in the region before first pitch. I guess we have to be on our toes here given the Nationals’ series of questionable weather-related decisions over the years, but this doesn’t sound too concerning as of now. If the game starts late, the pitchers should be fine.
- SEA/MIN is also YELLOW/GREEN for possible late-game rain. It doesn’t sound too concerning, but we do have two of the more viable pitchers going in this one in Luis Castillo and Kenta Maeda.
- BAL/PHI and KC/CLE are both GREEN with Roth saying he thinks any big local weather will likely miss those ballparks.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jon Gray is good to go for the Rangers tonight after leaving his last start early. He took a line drive off the shin, but he’s actually been moved up a day in the rotation. As a result, we can safely expect no injury-related limitations tonight against the Astros.
- Adam Wainwright is due to return to the Cardinals’ rotation tonight after missing time with alleged shoulder trouble. Oli Marmol said the veteran should be good to throw about 65 pitches tonight. We almost surely weren’t rostering the struggling Waino in a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks regardless, but the pitch limit knocks him completely out of consideration.
- Willson Contreras sat out yesterday with hip discomfort after leaving Saturday’s game as a result of the injury. Ivan Herrera got the nod behind the plate in yesterday’s game. Nolan Gorman missed yesterday’s game with a sore back, though Marmol said it isn’t a serious concern. Lars Nootbaar left yesterday’s game early with a heel issue.
- Ryan Yarbrough left his most recent start as a result of a hamstring injury, but he’s listed as the Royals’ expected starter tonight in Cleveland. Needless to say, a low-strikeout pitcher like this against a high-contact Guardians lineup isn’t really on my radar from a DFS standpoint.
- C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant are out of the Rockies’ lineup again today. Meanwhile, Ryan McMahon was scratched, which makes the lineup Patrick Corbin will throw to even weaker. Michael Toglia and Alan Trejo will man the corners of the infield, while Harold Castro cracks the updated lineup at second base.
- Yordan Alvarez was expected to be back with the Astros today, but he’s not in tonight’s lineup. Yainer Diaz will serve as the DH with Chas McCormick starting in left.
- Byron Buxton went on the paternity list, so that’s one power bat Luis Castillo won’t have to worry about tonight. Trevor Larnach will crack the lineup in the 7 spot, while Matt Wallner will serve as the DH.
- J.D. Martinez was a very late scratch from the Dodgers’ lineup yesterday in Arlington with hamstring tightness. Will Smith took over as the team’s DH, while Austin Barnes drew his expected start behind the plate. Smith should catch tonight, but Martinez is questionable for this matchup against Jose Berrios.
- Adolis Garcia missed yesterday’s game after getting hit on the hand by a pitch on Saturday. Travis Jankowski drew the start in right field, while Josh Smith manned left. Smith and Ezequiel Duran are expected to share duties at shortstop, as well, with Corey Seager on the IL with a sprained thumb.
- Danny Jansen is day-to-day after exiting yesterday’s game with a forearm contusion. As of now, we have Alejandro Kirk projected to catch Berrios and hit 8th tonight in LA.
- Gabriel Moreno landed on the IL yesterday with shoulder inflammation. Carson Kelly should do most of the catching for the DBax for as long as Moreno is on the shelf with Jose Herrera serving as the backup.
- The Mariners are losing outfielders with each passing day. AJ Pollock landed on the IL over the weekend, just a couple of days after Jarred Kelenic did the same. Taylor Trammell was recalled to take Pollock’s place on the roster.
- The Padres’ 5.28 implied run total is the highest on the slate, as they’ll return home to face Quinn Priester and the Pirates tonight. I’d expect the Diamondbacks to gain some traction against the possibly-washed Adam Wainwright, while both sides of the Blue Jays-Dodgers clash are stackable against Michael Grove and Jose Berrios, respectively. The Cardinals have a bevy of minor injuries at the moment, but they also draw an attackable matchup against right-hander Ryne Nelson in Arizona. The Reds should also gain some traction in a showdown against the due-for-regression Colin Rea.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We saw the Twins do some damage against Luis Castillo in the PNW last week, and tonight the same parties will do battle in Minnesota. Castillo has been struggling to keep the ball in the yard in recent weeks, but he again projects as one of the top pitchers on the board by default at $10,800 on FanDuel. Yu Darvish ($10,000) is the other quality spend in a slightly more favorable matchup against a Pirates bunch that has embraced the youth movement as the season has progressed.
- If you want to save a few bucks, Logan Allen ($9,400) is viable thanks to a cushy matchup against the Royals. Allen threw just 77 pitches in his return from the minors last week, but he made the most of it with 8 punchouts against the Pirates. Kenta Maeda ($8,600) is next on the list in a matchup against the high-strikeout Mariners, but there isn’t much else to love on the pitching side. Jon Gray (at HOU) and Jose Berrios (at LAD) are decent pitchers in rough matchups, though Patrick Corbin ($7,600) could be in play tonight at home against the Rockies. Corbin looks particularly appealing as a GPP salary-saver if Cron, Bryant, or both sit this one out for Colorado.
- We don’t have a Coors game or the Braves on this slate, so we’ll see where the ownership goes on the hitting side. Elly De La Cruz ($3,700) and Corbin Carroll ($4,100) stand out as two of the better individual bats against Rea and Wainwright, respectively, and I’ll be making them building blocks in cash builds. Travis Jankowski ($2,700) stands out as a useful value if he hits 2nd again against Brandon Bielak tonight.
- In tournaments, a Blue Jays stack looks awfully appealing. Brandon Belt (13%) and Bo Bichette (12%) are the only bats in the lineup currently projecting for much ownership on FD, yet Grove is one of the weaker pitchers taking the mound tonight. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,600) is another bat I’ll be looking to prioritize in all formats, even as a one-off.
- Speaking of Vladito, I like the value on taking Jr. to total higher than 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs tonight on Underdog. If you’re a new user, take advantage of our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- We know Corbin has had major trouble with right-handed power over the years. While this is a park downgrade for the Rockies, Nats Park is still a decent offensive environment overall. Cron ($3,000) and Bryant ($2,800) are individual standouts if they’re healthy enough to start tonight, while Randal Grichuk ($2,800) and Elias Diaz ($2,600) both have ISOs of over .200 vs. left-handed pitching this season. In multi-entry GPPs, I plan to have some exposure to the Colorado offense, while other lineups will include Corbin.
- Castillo ($10,600) is the headliner from a salary standpoint on DraftKings, but Darvish ($9,400) looks like the significantly better value. I’d expect both to be fairly popular on a limited pitching slate, and rightfully so. Allen ($8,700) and Maeda ($8,600) are passable values, while I’ll once again come back to Corbin ($7,300) as the cheapie on my radar. The pitching streets are rough out there tonight, folks.
- The Mariners are a solid source of both value and leverage tonight. Maeda is a solid pitcher, but we’ve got just one hitter in the entire Seattle lineup – Julio Rodriguez – priced over $3,500 on DK. Cal Raleigh ($3,500), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200), and Eugenio Suarez ($2,900) offer power at reasonable price points, and we’ve got single-digit pOWN on everybody here. Stacking the M’s is also a way to pair Castillo and Darvish. You can say the same of the Twins, who will again throw a few cheap LHBs at Castillo. Edouard Julien ($3,300), Alex Kirilloff ($2,800), and Max Kepler ($2,900) are the main attractions in any Minnesota stack.
- The Jays aren’t as cheap on DK on aggregate, but you can find some salary relief with Daulton Varsho ($3,200), Brandon Belt ($3,100), Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), and Kevin Kiermaier ($2,600).
- The Diamondbacks have hit the skids offensively of late, but a home date against Wainwright could be just what the doctor ordered. Carroll ($6,000), Christian Walker ($5,400), and Ketel Marte ($5,500) will cost you, but it’s a great spot for cheaper lefties like Geraldo Perdomo ($4,100), Alek Thomas ($2,800) and Jake McCarthy ($3,100). If the Reds wind up pulling more ownership, I love the DBax as a pivot.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!