MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, April 22
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, April 22nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got some daytime baseball on a beautiful Saturday, but do you know what’s better than daytime baseball? Nighttime baseball. We’re here to break down the 7-game main slate that gets underway at 7:05 ET. We do have a few aces to sort through, while Joe Musgrove is set to make his 2023 debut for the Padres in Arizona. We may also have some weather to navigate. As always, let’s hop in and find some MLB DFS picks, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The only concerning game on the main slate is DET-BAL, which is a firm ORANGE in Roth’s early weather run. He notes that a late start and play is a possibility, but a straight orange is never a great sign. Luckily, with this being the first game on the night, we should have some news one way or the other before the slate gets underway. This also brings some risk into the equation for Kyle Gibson, who would grade out as a decent pitching option against the woeful Tigers.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Joe Musgrove hasn’t pitched this season after landing on the IL with shoulder and toe injuries. Musgrove pitched 9.1 innings across a couple of rehab starts in the minors as a tune-up. Despite allowing a total of 6 earned runs, he also whiffed 14 and issued just 1 walk in those outings. If he’s on a pitch count tonight, it likely won’t be too strict, which puts him in play as a DFS option immediately. Adam Engel is nearing a season debut of his own, though he’s not expected to be activated today.
- Jorge Mateo was available off the bench in last night’s game, but he didn’t play. There’s a chance he returns to the Orioles’ lineup tonight after missing a few games with a hip injury.
- Logan O’Hoppe landed on the IL yesterday. The Angels recalled Chad Wallach to take his place, and Wallach immediately homered in his first game back last night. We have Matt Thaiss projected to draw the start behind the plate tonight.
- Garrett Mitchell went on the IL earlier this week with a shoulder injury, and there’s now a decent chance he’ll miss the rest of the season with surgery looking like a real possibility. Joey Wiemer will play a prominent starting role with Mitchell out of the mix.
- Franmil Reyes went on the paternity list yesterday. The Royals have been routinely benching Hunter Dozier against right-handed pitchers, though he’s expected to start tonight in Anaheim against southpaw Tyler Anderson.
- A hamstring injury kept Christian Arroyo out of yesterday’s game, and we have Yu Chang projected to start in his place again tonight against the Brewers.
- My top stacks today are San Diego, Texas, and the LA Angels. All 3 are facing underwhelming pitchers, and all 3 have implied run totals north of 5 as a result. Of course, we can also expect ownership to congregate there, especially with the Rangers (vs. Fujinami) and the Angels (vs. Greinke). The Royals are an intriguing under-the-radar stack to consider for value against Tyler Anderson.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- The pitching pricing is different depending on the site tonight. Luis Castillo ($11,000) checks in as the most expensive arm on FanDuel at home against the Cardinals. That matchup is tough enough to potentially keep his ownership in check, especially with Andrew Heaney ($8,900) and Kyle Gibson ($9,000) drawing better matchups against the A’s and Tigers, respectively. I’d expect Heaney to be the chalk, especially with Gibson’s game dealing with weather issues. Castillo will gain some popularity if the Orioles’ game gets axed. Framber Valdez is also here at $10,000, but he’ll go largely overlooked in a brutal matchup at Atlanta.
- If you need to save salary at pitching…uh, good luck? Other than the reasonably-priced Heaney, there isn’t much else out there. Joey Wentz ($6,800) and Shintaro Fujinami ($6,000) are cheap, but there’s a reason for that. Miles Mikolas ($7,700 vs. SEA) has struggled this season, and his matchup is far from ideal. Kyle Wright and Musgrove are good pitchers, but both have question marks after recent injuries. Wright is facing the Astros, while Musgrove ($9,900) won’t come cheap in his season debut vs. Arizona. Wade Miley is $8,700, for some reason. Sticking with the chalk pitching looks like the way to go on this slate.
- The Padres have been massively disappointing early in the season, but it’s only a matter of time until the bats come around. Merrill Kelly has gotten by on excellent control in recent years, but that seems to have abandoned him (14% walks) so far this year. SD is one of the most patient lineups in the league (11.5% walks vs. RHP). Most importantly, most of the Padres aren’t even pricey on FanDuel. Juan Soto ($3,300), Manny Machado ($2,900), Jake Cronenworth ($2,900), Trent Grisham ($3,000), and Matt Carpenter ($2,600) are easy to get to. Fernando Tatis ($4,400) is expensive, but we know what kind of ceiling he offers once he gets his groove back.
- The Rangers and Angels should be popular. Fujinami looks like a guy we’ll be picking on for as long as he’s still in Oakland’s rotation. No strikeouts (16.4%), all the walks (14.8%), and a SIERA north of 6.00 tells you all you need to know. With neutral splits, we can stack Texas any way we want. Ezequiel Duran ($2,100) and Josh Smith ($2,200) are a couple of obvious cheapies, while we’re building around Marcus Semien ($3,800), Adolis Garcia ($3,400), Josh Jung ($3,000), and Nate Lowe ($3,400) for power. Greinke isn’t a full gas can, but he’s purely pitching to contact at this stage of his career. I’ll gladly take my chances paying up for Shohei Ohtani ($3,900) and Mike Trout ($4,100), while Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) and Brandon Drury ($2,400) should benefit from Greinke’s non-existent strikeout ability.
- Astros-Braves is interesting. We have two elite offenses facing a couple of pretty good pitchers, which should lead to almost zero ownership on either side. Yordan Alvarez ($4,500) and Kyle Tucker ($3,900) are alluring low-owned spends from the left side. Austin Riley ($3,500) has enough power and flyball ability to combat Framber’s groundball stuff. Ronald Acuna ($4,600) and his power/speed combo need no introduction.
- If you’re hunting for value, Bobby Witt ($3,300) and Salvador Perez ($2,800) are underpriced for a matchup against a low-K lefty in Tyler Anderson. You can complete the mini-stack with Edward Olivares ($2,300), who offers sneaky power upside. Jake McCarthy ($2,400) and Kerry Carpenter ($2,400) are two more value bats projected to draw favorable lineup spots for their respective clubs.
- The DK pricing is a little softer on the pitching side. We’re still getting a nice discount on Heaney ($8,800), who will be a very tough fade against the woeful A’s. Castillo ($9,800) is also considerably cheaper over here, so I’m willing to ride with him even against a more potent St. Louis side. Kyle Wright and Miles Mikolas are in tough spots, but they’re also cheap. Wright is worth a look in GPPs at only $6,800 in spite of a difficult matchup at home against Houston. Mikolas ($6,300) isn’t getting any better, but maybe he can back his way into 12-14 points. On this slate, that might be good enough.
- I don’t mind taking some shots on Musgrove ($9,200) against Arizona, either. This is an improved lineup, but he’s not expected to be on a particularly short leash. Keeping a tight pitching pool looks like the way to go, but it’s not unreasonable to think Musgrove can put up a respectable score here. I’d stay away in cash games given the uncertainty, of course.
- The Padres aren’t nearly as cheap on DK as they are on FD, with all of Soto, Machado, Tatis, and Xander Bogaerts up over $5,000. You can save some cash with the lefties (Cronenworth, Carpenter, Grisham), but it’ll be tough to fully stack the good stuff here without making some serious concessions at pitcher. We run into the same problem with the Angels. Ohtani ($6,100) and Trout ($5,700) are 2 of the most expensive bats on the slate, while Renfroe ($5,100) and Taylor Ward ($4,900) won’t come cheap, either.
- You can get cheap exposure to the Rangers via Duran ($2,100) and Leody Taveras ($2,400), while Jake Lamb ($2,000) should crack the Halos’ lineup vs. Greinke. For the dollar, Kansas City looks like the best cheap stack over on DraftKings. Hunter Dozier, Nate Eaton, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all hovering in the $2,000 range, which makes it easier to pay up for Witt ($5,000) and Perez ($4,700). Olivares ($3,200) and Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,500) offer useful value, too.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!