MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, July 15
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, July 15th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
MLB returned with a wild 14-game slate last night. We saw wacky weather, weird pitching performances from aces, and several multi-homer games. Today’s docket is a bit like a regular weekday schedule, with a hefty 12-game DraftKings main slate starting at 7:05 ET. DK is including Game 2 of both doubleheaders today (SD-PHI and TB-KC). FanDuel, meanwhile, is rolling with a 10-gamer and excluding the twin bills.
We’ve got the Yankees in Coors Field once again along with a slew of quality pitching options in a few different price tiers. That should make for a fun slate, so let’s dive right in and uncover the best MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The weather tonight may not be as dicey as it was yesterday, but we do still have a few potential trouble spots. SF-PIT, MIL-CIN, and LA-NYM are all YELLOW/ORANGE with the potential for a delay. It doesn’t look like any of them are huge risks for postponement, but always keep an eye on Twitter and/or check out the latest updates on Crunch Time before lock.
- MIA-BAL gets a YELLOW with a chance for a delay, but the absence of ORANGE makes this game look a little less scary. Braxton Garrett and Kyle Gibson likely won’t be on many radars from a DFS standpoint tonight anyway.
- SD-PHI Game 2 also gets a YELLOW for a delay chance with showers in the region. This game looks better for the bats, so it’s not too worrisome.
- NYY-COL gets a GREEN/YELLOW tag for a low chance of a delay. They’re generally smart about dealing with the weather in Colorado, and it’s not like we’re building around the Coors pitchers to begin with.
- The coolest game of the slate is the MIL-CIN affair, though this is still the best non-Coors hitter’s park on the slate. We’ll also still have temps in the upper-70s at game time, so it’s not like we’re dealing with Oakland-style cold conditions here by any means.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Rays will recall Cooper Criswell from the minors to serve as the starter or the bulk reliever in Game 2 of the doubleheader. He did give the Rays some length- up to 86 pitches in an outing earlier this season- but we know the Rays are never afraid to let their bullpen do some heavy lifting.
- The Phillies decided to start Ranger Suarez in Game 1 against the Padres, which likely means a Taijuan Walker start in Game 2. Walker has quietly been in terrific form for quite some time now, though he’s a tough sell at $9,300 on DK against a low-strikeout San Diego lineup.
- Blake Snell will start Game 1 for the Padres, which leaves lefty Ryan Weathers on the mound for Game 2. In related news, the Phillies look like a terrific stack against a young pitcher who has struggled for much of the season.
- Shohei Ohtani left Friday’s game as a pitcher with a trainer, though he stayed in the game to continue to hit. He’s reportedly dealing with an injury to his middle finger, though it would be a surprise if it were bad enough to keep him out of the lineup tonight against Framber Valdez. The Angels put Anthony Rendon and Jo Adell on the IL yesterday and recalled Trey Cabbage and Michael Stefanic. Zach Neto returned after missing about a month with an oblique injury, which is a boost to an otherwise shorthanded Halos lineup.
- The Angels also benched Luis Rengifo midgame last night after he made a costly error, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Eduardo Escobar draw a start at the hot corner tonight.
- Yandy Diaz was placed on the paternity list yesterday, though there is a chance he returns ahead of today’s action for the Rays. Jonathan Aranda took his spot on the roster yesterday, though the game was ultimately rained out.
- Jeimer Candelario exited last night’s game with a thumb issue he suffered pregame. He’s apparently having trouble swinging the bat without pain, which could require a trip to the IL. Ildemaro Vargas would likely start at third against Steven Matz tonight if Candelario is unable to give it a go.
- Michael Conforto left last night’s game in Pittsburgh after an HBP, but he reportedly didn’t require X-rays. That seems like a good sign for his chances of returning to the lineup tonight against Johan Oviedo, and we currently have him projected to hit cleanup.
- Brian Anderson was a late scratch from the Brewers’ lineup yesterday with a sore lower back. Andruw Monasterio drew the spot start in his place. The Brewers could use Anderson’s right-handed bat tonight against lefty Andrew Abbott.
- Jose Miranda has been dealing with a bad shoulder for months, and he was scratched ahead of last night’s game. Alex Kirilloff cracked the lineup in his place.
- The Yankees flopped last night against Austin Gomber and friends, but we need to have short memories in DFS. The Bronx Bombers are once again topping the slate with an implied run total pushing 6.4 against right-hander Connor Seabold. NYY is projected to have the highest ownership of any offense on the board, though the sizable slate likely means they won’t be overwhelmingly chalky. The Rays aren’t at all far behind with a hefty 6.35 total of their own against Cole Ragans and the KC bullpen in Game 2 of the doubleheader. The homer-prone Braves are checking in at 5.21 against the homer-prone Lance Lynn. The aforementioned Phillies (5.43) and the Rockies (5.12) are the other offenses with implied run totals north of 5 tonight.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Spencer Strider ($11,600) will toe the rubber for the Braves tonight, so you know what that means. Play him. He leads the world in strikeout rate by a sizable margin, and the White Sox aren’t a particularly imposing offense. They’ve also struck out at a 23.9% clip vs. righties this season. Strider is expensive, but he also projects significantly better than any other pitching option on the board.
- Strider is so absurd that his Underdog strikeout total is listed at 9.0 today. Perhaps what’s more absurd is that I like taking higher than 9 whiffs in this spot by a pretty comfortable margin. If you’re a new Underdog user, be sure to take advantage of our Underdog promo code GRINDERS for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Pablo Lopez ($10,900) is pricey, but he draws a tasty matchup of his own at Oakland. I’ll still be prioritizing getting up to Strider in my lineups if I’m paying all the way up, but perhaps the $700 savings come in handy in certain situations. Framber Valdez ($10,700) would be next up against the shorthanded Angels, followed by George Kirby ($10,300) at home to the Tigers. The only other 5-figure pitcher is Andrew Abbott ($10,000) at home to the Brewers. Milwaukee has struck out plenty against left-handed pitching this season (24.9%), but the ballpark won’t do Abbott any favors.
- There isn’t much cheap pitching out there on FanDuel tonight. Steven Matz ($7,200) projects as a reasonable point-per-dollar value at home against the weak Nationals, but it’s not like Matz’ numbers jump off the page to begin with. Hogan Harris is also in play for GPPs at the same salary against a Minnesota lineup that’s struck out nearly 25% of the time against LHPs on the year.
- The smaller FD slate and the more reasonable salaries should lead to decent ownership on the Yankees again tonight. Giancarlo Stanton and Harrison Bader are the most expensive bats here at just $3,500 apiece, which is a little silly given the situation. We’re not running away from stacking against Seabold, and there are 5 more bats in the projected lineup under $3,000. Gleyber Torres ($3,300) and Josh Donaldson ($2,900) are core plays in any NYY stack, and they’re staples in cash game builds.
- The Braves are more expensive on aggregate than the Yankees are, but it’s still hard not to like the matchup here against Lynn. He’s already allowed 22 home runs this season, including 16 to left-handed hitters. STLCards has Matt Olson ($4,200) tagged as a core play in LineupHQ, and with good reason. Michael Harris ($2,900) and Eddie Rosario ($2,800) are terrific values with the platoon advantage, as well.
- MIL-CIN is an odd game with two decent pitchers taking the mound in a homer-friendly ballpark. I’m not a full believer in Abbott just yet, particularly against right-handed power. The Brewers are a little lacking in that department, but Willy Adames ($3,000), William Contreras ($2,900), and Tyrone Taylor ($2,000) stand out as tremendous point-per-dollar valued. All 6 homers served up by Abbott to this point in his career have been hit by RHBs, so that’s a solid mini-stack for the Brewers.
- We can also look to the Cardinals for value, as they’ll face one of the slate’s weaker pitchers in Jake Irvin. Lefties (.339 wOBA, 5 HR) have given him most of the trouble, and every left-handed Cardinal in the projected lineup (Nootbaar, Donovan, Gorman, Carlson) checks in south of $3,000 on FanDuel.
- The DK slate isn’t much different on the pitching side. They’re treating Spencer Strider like Russell Westbrook circa 2016 with his massive $12,800 salary, but it’s hard to say he isn’t worth it. Strider is a core play for me in all formats, though there are some viable alternatives if you’re skittish about the price tag.
- Pablo Lopez ($10,200) is next on the list at a useful $2,600 discount against the A’s, while Framber Valdez ($9,800) and George Kirby ($9,300) are even cheaper on DK than they are on FD. None of these guys has the slate-breaking ceiling Strider offers, but they should still be able to put up respectable scores in plus matchups of their own.
- It’s still easy enough to stack the Yanks on DK, with Stanton ($5,000), Torres ($5,300), and Anthony Rizzo ($4,800) being the only truly expensive hitters. Donaldson ($3,600) is still too cheap, while Billy McKinney ($2,700) and Franchy Cordero ($3,300) bring some lefty power at even cheaper price points.
- We get the Phillies and Rays on DraftKings, which puts two more high-end stacks in play. Weathers is a lefty with a wide platoon split, which makes Nick Castellanos ($4,300), JT Realmuto ($4,800), Trea Turner ($5,500), and Alec Bohm ($3,800) the headliners in any PHI stack. They’re more of a GPP team than a source of cash game bats, however. Jonathan Aranda ($2,000) and Manuel Margot ($2,200) are useful values from the Tampa side if either of them cracks the lineup against Cole Ragans.
- Tyrone Taylor ($2,000), Kyle Isbel ($2,200), Edmundo Sosa ($2,200), Johan Rojas ($2,000), and Joey Wiemer ($2,400) are a few more value bats on my radar as one-offs in any format.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!