MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, July 22
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, July 21st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Saturday brings us a bunch of day baseball, but the main slates will go down tonight. DraftKings has a 6-gamer starting at 7:05 ET, while FanDuel’s main slate is a 7-gamer that includes NYM/BOS. We do still have a decent mix of high-end pitching and strong stacks, though nobody is shaping up to be obvious chalk on either side. This should be an interesting slate, so let’s dig in and uncover the best MLB DFS picks for a Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The only questionable weather game on the slate is CHW/MIN, which is listed at YELLOW/ORANGE early this morning in Roth’s report. We may need a late start here, but he’s confident they’ll be able to get the game in in some capacity. A late start would presumably be good for both Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray, as a delay would potentially end their nights early.
- Every other outdoor game on the board has temps around 80 degrees with modest winds. ATL/MIL is the only dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Braves will call up Allan Winans to start tonight in his MLB debut against Milwaukee. The right-hander isn’t among Atlanta’s 30 best prospects, and he’s shown average strikeout stuff at most levels of the minors with good control. Winans does have a modest groundball lean, and he’s affordable around the industry ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD).
- Bryce Harper played his first-ever game at first base last night, and FanDuel rewarded him with 1B/OF eligibility. He’s still OF-only on DK, however.
- J.D. Davis and LaMonte Wade both returned to the Giants’ lineup last night after they both missed back-to-back games earlier in the week. They’re projected to hit first and third respectively against right-hander Josiah Gray.
- Joey Gallo and Willi Castro were both scratched from the Twins’ lineup due to pink eye, which sure sounds like something that could keep them out again tonight. Michael Taylor and Donovan Solano took their places in the lineup.
- Yandy Diaz got the night off last night for the Astros, but he’s expected to return to his role as the team’s DH tonight against Paul Blackburn. That’ll presumably send David Hensley back to the bench.
- Brent Rooker was a late scratch for Oakland last night with an illness, which puts his status into question ahead of tonight’s clash. Seth Brown took his place last night in the lefty-lefty matchup against Framber Valdez. Zack Gelof led off for the A’s last night, but he’s expected to move back down to the No. 6 hole tonight with Tony Kemp returning to the leadoff spot vs. Cristian Javier.
- Andrew Vaughn has now missed 3 straight games with his lingering foot injury, with Gavin Sheets taking his place at first base last night. The issue isn’t believed to be serious, so there’s a chance Vaughn makes his return tonight against Sonny Gray.
- This may shock you, so hopefully you’re sitting down: The Braves look like a pretty good stack tonight. They’re taking their swings against Adrian Houser, who isn’t one of the stronger members of the Brewers’ rotation. Atlanta is one of just two teams with an implied run total north of 5 tonight. The other is the Angels, who will be dealing with a Pirates bullpen game tonight. The Giants (4.97) are another team currently projecting for significant ownership, though Josiah Gray hasn’t been nearly as homer-prone this season as he was in 2022.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are several different ways to go on the pitching side tonight, which should leave the ownership fairly spread out. Logan Webb ($10,800), Zack Wheeler ($10,300), and Max Scherzer ($10,100) are your expensive options tonight, though none of them are in prime spots. Webb and Wheeler face the low-strikeout Nationals and Guardians, while Scherzer is in Fenway to face the Red Sox. James Paxton ($9,900) will deal with the Mets on the other side of that game.
- Dylan Cease ($9,400) draws a solid matchup against a high-strikeout Twins bunch, though they do still have plenty of power to throw his way. I’d expect the cheaper Cristian Javier ($8,800) and Reid Detmers ($9,000) to eat up some ownership against the A’s and Pirates, respectively. We’ve been picking on the A’s all year, while the bottom-half of the Pirates’ projected lineup is littered with potential strikeouts.
- Austin Riley ($3,600) seems to have rediscovered his power stroke, but he’s still a bit too cheap for that power on FanDuel. This lineup matches up well against just about everybody, but they look particularly scary against the low-strikeout Houser. STLCards has Ronald Acuna ($4,800) tagged as a core play, and nobody would ever argue with that. Michael Harris ($2,900) headlines the cheapies in any ATL stack, while you’ll also get good power with Eddie Rosario ($2,800) and Marcell Ozuna ($2,900).
- Speaking of the Braves, we can also attack their lines over on Underdog. The value on taking Matt Olson to total more than 1.5 bases in this spot is hard to ignore. All he’s done against right-handed pitching is post a .432 wOBA with a .357 ISO so far this season. If you’re a new user, be sure to use our Underdog promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Angels will see a mix of lefties and righties out of the Pirates’ bullpen tonight, but you don’t need me to tell you why Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) is an outstanding play. The rest of the stack is a bit more questionable with Mike Trout on the shelf, but Zach Neto ($2,800), Hunter Renfroe ($2,900), and Taylor Ward ($3,000) are useful values. You can also make a legitimate case that Mickey Moniak ($3,400) has been one of the Halos’ 3 best hitters this season, which is a development nobody could’ve seen coming.
- The best value stack on the board is the Giants, even if I’m not thrilled by their matchup with Gray. He’s still not keeping the ball on the ground against lefties, even if he’s doing a better job of keeping it in the yard. Wade ($2,900), Joc Pederson ($3,000), Michael Conforto ($3,000), and Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900) stand out from a power perspective against the right-hander. The Giants may throw 7 LHBs at Gray to start the game, though we know they all likely won’t finish it.
- Webb ($10,600) is the only 5-figure pitching option on DK tonight, and he’s always a reasonable play against a low-power Washington lineup. I still think most will opt to save with Javier ($9,000) and Detmers ($7,500) in superior on-paper matchups, while we’re also getting Cease ($8,600) at a relative discount. I’d expect Wheeler ($9,800) to be the overlooked ace in a hitter-friendly park against Cleveland.
- The Braves aren’t nearly as affordable as a stack on DK, with 5 hitters coming in at $5,800 or higher. Those cheapish pitchers make it a bit easier to get to Atlanta, but they should be a little more popular on FanDuel.
- Saving on bats and paying up for pitching may actually be a somewhat contrarian way to build tonight. If you want some leverage against a popular pitcher, the Pirates against Detmers look like a good place to start. Pittsburgh does have some right-handed thunder with Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, Connor Joe, and Henry Davis, while the bottom of the order is littered with guys in the $2,000 range. Reynolds ($5,100) is the only guy that’ll cost you. Detmers is a guy that struggles to hold runners, so there’s some sneaky stolen base upside here, too.
- The Twins have been smoking chalky pitchers all week long, and they’ll have another opportunity tonight against Cease. The projected lineup still has a collective .190 ISO vs. right-handed pitching on the year, and Cease’s numbers against left-handed hitters this season have been fairly average. Edouard Julien ($3,300), Alex Kirilloff ($2,500), Max Kepler ($2,600), and Matt Wallner ($2,000) all boast power from the left side with affordable price tags on DK. Ditto for Gallo ($3,000) if he happens to be back in the lineup.
- The Angels are a bit like the Pirates with one expensive guy in Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) alongside a bunch of cheapies. Nobody else in the projected lineup will run you more than $4,100 (Moniak) on DK. The high total and affordability of the stack could make the Angels a popular target tonight.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck!